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6J1!

Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
9
USD/JPY Outlook: Strong Dollar Faces Yen Reversal at Key Supply The US Dollar gained momentum following the release of July's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index last Friday. As the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data holds significant weight in the eyes of investors. The report indicated that US inflation remained steady compared to the previous month, easing concerns that the US economy might be decelerating faster than anticipated. In a "soft-landing" scenario, where the economy avoids a severe downturn, the US Dollar is likely to maintain its strength more effectively than if a recession were imminent. On the technical front, the Japanese Yen Futures are currently retesting a Supply Area established on August 5, signaling a potential reversal. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a stark contrast between retail traders and institutional players: while retail traders are heavily long on the Yen, smart money is shifting its position decisively towards the bearish side. Additionally, the seasonality of the Yen suggests a historical tendency for the currency to experience a downturn during this period of the year. Given these factors, we anticipate that the USD will continue to strengthen against the JPY. Keep a close eye on the USD/JPY chart for potential trading opportunities as this dynamic unfolds. USD/JPY CHART PREVIOUS FORECAST ✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT JPY (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
USD/JPY Rebounds from Key Demand Zone: Bullish Continuation AheaAs anticipated in our recent analysis of the USD/JPY pair, the price has indeed rebounded from our identified demand area, reaffirming our forecast. This price action is particularly significant when we examine the underlying market sentiment and the broader context in which this rebound is occurring. Market Sentiment and COT Report Insights A closer look at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an intriguing dynamic: retail traders, or "retailers," are overwhelmingly bearish on USD/JPY. This means that a large portion of non-commercial traders, who typically represent smaller, individual investors, are expecting the value of the USD to decline against the JPY. This sentiment is often driven by surface-level market movements or short-term news events that can sway less experienced traders. In stark contrast, the COT report shows that "smart money"—commercial traders and large institutions who are more informed and strategically positioned—are taking a bullish stance on USD/JPY. These market participants have deeper insights into economic indicators, global monetary policies, and macroeconomic trends. Their bullish positioning suggests a strong confidence in the U.S. Dollar's resilience against the Japanese Yen, at least in the near to medium term. Technical Analysis and Price Rebound From a technical perspective, the price rebound from our demand area was expected, and it aligns with the broader bullish trend we've been tracking. This demand area, identified through historical support levels and recent price action, represents a zone where buying interest is sufficiently strong to halt or reverse a downward movement in price. The rebound also reflects the broader economic environment, particularly the divergence in monetary policies between the United States and Japan. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been more aggressive in its approach to managing inflation through interest rate hikes, which generally supports a stronger dollar. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan has maintained a more accommodative stance, which tends to weaken the yen. This divergence creates a fundamental backdrop that supports the bullish outlook on USD/JPY. JPY FUTURES PREVIOUS ANALYSIS ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance. This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas. NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing. LONGS: HEATING OIL (HO) GASOLINE (RBOB) MEXICAN PESO (6M) SOYBEANS (ZS) COTTON (CT) SUGAR (SB) SHORTS: EURO CURRENY (6E) JAPANESE YEN (6J) SWISS FRANC (6S) GOLD (GC) 30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB) Good Luck & Good Trading.
ICEUS:SBV2024
by Tradius_Trades
JPY Strengthens Amid BoJ Tightening, USD Faces HeadwindsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) during the early European session. Despite the USD's initial attempt to recover value following yesterday's decline, the JPY continued to strengthen due to rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may implement further monetary policy tightening. The BoJ recently raised its short-term rate target by 15 basis points (bps), adjusting it to a range of 0.15%-0.25%. Additionally, the central bank announced plans to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to ¥3 trillion, starting in the first quarter of 2026. These moves have bolstered the JPY, adding to its momentum against the USD. Meanwhile, the upside potential for the USD/JPY pair appears limited as the USD encounters significant headwinds. Expectations are growing for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 74.5% probability of this rate cut at the September meeting, a sharp increase from the 11.4% chance reported just a week ago. From a technical perspective, incorporating our Supply and Demand analysis, we missed the initial entry in the Supply area due to a rapid spike that reached our entry point. Nonetheless, we are monitoring for a potential retest of that area for a possible short position. USD/JPY Chart ✅ Please share your thoughts about Japanese Yen Futures in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!
by FOREXN1
1
Bullish Shark on the Japanese Yen Futures Feb 16th ContractThere is a Bullish Shark visible on the Japanese Yen Futures contract expiring on Feb 16th 2024, there is also RSI Bullish Divergence on the 4 Hour Timeframe at this level. A higher low bounce in the JPY from here would likely result in further tightening of the Japanese carry trade, which would be bad for stock and particularly bad for REITs and Financial Institutions. Saying as though it is the Feb 16th Contract that this Harmonic has completed on, I would expect the JPY to rise sharply leading into the expiration of this contract.
CME:6JG2024Long
by RizeSenpai
Where is the Yen HeadingInterest rates are to asset prices, like what gravity is to an apple, once said Warren Buffet. Low interest rates imply low gravitational pull to asset prices. Similarly, a loose interest regime when faced-off against a fierce monetary stance, can send the former currency deflating at an alarming clip. This paper peeks into the Japanese macro environment. It then contrasts it with the situation in the US. The sentiments among the respective central bankers amid the macro forces at play will dictate the path ahead for the Yen. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) "looser for longer" policy when weighed against "higher for longer" Fed’s stance, points to Yen weakening to JPY 155/USD by the end of the year. Accordingly, this paper posits a short position in CME Japanese Yen futures expiring in December 2023 to gain from a weakening Yen with an entry at 0.0069445 followed by a target at 0.0064600 and hedged by a stop loss at 0.0074075, delivering a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.05x. FOREX MARKETS ARE A WINDOW TO MACRO SENTIMENTS The past two weeks have been eventful in FX markets. It has been marked by volatility and uncertainty with fresh fears of rate hikes following Fed’s hawkish tone at Jackson Hole and strong economic data. An otherwise stubbornly robust US labour market has finally started to show signs of cooling. The fears around and the resilience of the broader US economy is evident in the performance of the DXY as shown by the chart below. Even as the path ahead for the USD remains uncertain, its strength against the Yen looks far more certain. RECESSION DEFYING RESILIENT US ECONOMY The Fed has maintained a hawkish tone. Why? Fed is data driven. And the data points to a resilient US economy with inflation and consumer spending rebounding. However, last Friday's job market data finally points to some cooling. The US labour market has shown incredible resilience in the face of a slowing economy. The data from JOLTs survey highlights that job openings in the US have declined for the last three months and now stand at a 2.5 year low but remains at elevated levels. The job openings to unemployed ratio is at 1.51. Typically, this ratio should be between 1.0-1.2 in line with moderating inflation. The PCE price index for July was released last Thursday which showed a higher-than-expected US inflation reading after almost a year of cooling inflation. It was not entirely surprising as a more moderate increase was expected given the moderation in base-level effects. Crucially, core inflation rose to 4.2% from 4.1% highlighting that underlying inflation remains stubborn. The PCE release points to consumer spending in the US 0.8% higher MoM in July, across both goods and services. Spending grew at its fastest pace in six months potentially risking renewed spike in inflation. Fresh inflation risks in the US have been driven by rising fuel prices. Oil prices have risen due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia. Gasoline pump prices are at its highest level for the year at USD 3.83/gallon as of end-August as per American Automobile Association. Food prices have also been on the rise globally driven by supply imbalances. STAGFLATION FEARS ARE SURFACING IN JAPAN Stagnation and tepid demand best describe Japanese economy for decades now. BoJ is resolute in maintaining ultra-low interest rates in its effort to drive demand. BoJ has had mixed success in stimulating its economy. As stagnation recedes, stagflation fears loom. Stagflation is an economic condition of stagnating economy combined with high inflation. Inflation in Japan has been on the rise for the past year, driven by a surge in global commodities (food & fuel) and the effects of higher prices in other countries. Loose monetary policy along with a higher deficit over the past year has weakened the Yen 5% against the USD. With BoJ committed to further stimulation, the Yen is likely to continue weakening. Notwithstanding tweaks to its YCC (yield curve control) policy and BoJ's FX market intervention, the BoJ has reiterated that its focus is on maintaining stability rather than strength in the Yen. Wage growth this year was driven by the Shunto negotiation in 30 years of 3.8% increase in base pay. However, real wage growth remains low. Wage growth will have to continue sustainably, rather than through sporadic, one-time, increases. Japan is at the cusp of exiting decades of deflation. Despite CPI above 2% target, BoJ fears that it is premature to declare victory as pace of services inflation remains moderate. This might push BOJ to maintain monetary policy loose for longer to ensure that Japan doesn’t tip back into deflation. This continued dovish stance risk pushing the USD/JPY pair to 155, forecasted Goldman Sachs FX strategists. However, if BoJ pivots to being hawkish, JPY is expected to strengthen to 135/USD. TRADE SET UP Using CME’s Japanese Yen Futures, investors can secure exposure to the Yen. Each lot provides an exposure to 12.5 million Japanese Yen with exchange maintenance margin requirements of USD 3,300 per lot (as of September 4th). Each pip expressed as 0.0000005 per JPY increment delivers a P&L of USD 6.25. The proposed trade set up comprises of short position in Japanese Yen Futures expiring in December 2023 (6JZ3) with an entry at 0.0069445 followed by a target at 0.0064600 and hedged by a stop loss at 0.0074075, delivering a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.05x. • Entry: 0.0069445 (~JPY 144/USD) • Target: 0.0064600 (~JPY 154.8/USD) • Stop: 0.0074075 (~JPY 135.0/USD) • Profit at Target: USD 6,056.25 (( /0.0000005 = 969 pips x 6.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 5,787.5 (( /0.0000005 = 926) pips x 6.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.05x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
USDJPY Mid-Term Bearish Expectation/Analysis The explanation for this analysis is in the text on the chart This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy, which includes the: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC PD: excuse my poor english
CME:6J1!Short
by SmartMoneySource
JAPANESE YEN Futures (6J1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 0.0075890 Pivot: 0.0074140 Support : 0.0073120 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud and breaking the ascending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 0.0074140, which is in line with the pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection top the 1st support at 0.0073120, where the 100% fibonacci projection, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and overlap support are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 0.0075890, where the swing high is. Fundamentals: The trade balance of Japan is out today, which is -2.13T, lower than forecast and previous.
CME:6J1!Short
by Genesiv