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A live 786 - 886 measured from 0 trade!
886
BTC Price Prediction - TA using FibsIf you place a fib from the bottom of the prior run to the top of the next, the lowest price BTC retraces to in the next run is between the 786 and 886 twice.
This is true of all previous runs.
BTC hasn't reached the price between the current 786 and 886 yet twice, so I think a retracement to the 12k-15k range may be possible before a bigger run to the upside.
Bitcoin long term outlookFirst outlook on previous analysis turned out to be wrong, but the overall idea is very much valid: BTC is now hanging around supply area/886 retracement level and losing momentum, RSI showing heavy divergence.
I wouldnt't expect prices to go balistic in 2023 with recession coming and goverments doing all kinds of crazy stuff.
This could very well be the top of the "bull trap", "fake out" or however you wanna call it.
In case we break 25k, 30k would be pretty much guaranteed, but i still excpect a sub 10k Btc within the year.
Remember the market will always gear towards the maximum amount of loss for the max amount of people, I would argue that a sub 10k BTC would be almost a sure thing if we get to 30k as the top of the fake out, just cause it would be such a loss for most people.
Always working level by level and taking action based on what the market tells me and not my feelisngs.
I would only enetertain the possibility of the bottom having been 15k if we break above 30k, until then this is the plan.
MRNA harmonic 886 retracement. Interesting i article I found on the web on retracements. Different pattern but the idea is the same context. "short XA retracement particular, I realized that the B point within a Gartley-type structure that was less than a 0.618 would almost always exceed the expected 0.786 retracement of the XA leg at the projected completion point. I showed Jim this new pattern — called “the Bat” — which used what I was calling a “deep 0.786 retracement.” I told him that executing at the 0.786 without regard to the structure was a critical mistake. Besides, the 0.886 retracement, when used in the correct pattern structures, reduced the amount of risk in previously “undifferentiated” Gartley set-ups by 10 percent."
old.harmonictrader.com
I hope you enjoy the TA.
LINKUSDT The Importance of 0.886 and 0.146 Fibonacci RatiosWhy 14.6% (.146) and 88.6% (.886) are important levels on Fibonacci retracement? The 14.6 Fibonacci ratio, wich has a high mean of assertivity, is mirroned by 88.6, which has become an important entry level and stop loss in the market. 88.6 = 1 - X, X = 14.6. These are hidden levels on the standard scale. But you can add them manually.
As you can see on chart, my fave way to use the Fibonacci Retracement is setting the .50 level at the pivot point** that precedes a pullback, i.e. the lowest low of the first downtrend. The price generally tends to retrace at least to the 0.707* level, which is another hidden level. The most common case in the crypto market, according to my experiences, is the price going into the zone between 0.886 and 0.786. In many cases touching 88.6, which can be considered a conservative point for a stop loss. If the price does not retrace from this zone, then a potential trend reversal can be considered. I have considered the range between 88.6 and 78.6 to be a 'short zone', that is, a zone where I usually wait for a reversive price action, or you could say a potential reversal zone.
When price follows the trend after retracing then I consider 14.6% as my potential target. Means that tendence continues.
This complete zig zag movement is what we call a swing, upward or downward.
*0.707 (70.7%) is the square root of 0.5 Fibonacci ratio, wich is a ratio between 1 and 2.
**Pivot points (some call them "swing points") are those areas where important short term reversals take place.
Okay, let's see what happens during this trade.
Thanks for your attention.
AR/USDTAR/USDT - Very Bullish! Poised for a massive mark up! Bullish Cypher Harmonic made 786 retracement (outperformed BTC on way down) inverse head and oblong shoulders at the PCZ! locally 3 rising valleys, long term supply line breakout from top with backtest bump and run! 69% upside! absolutely amazing looking!
$DOT / USD - PoldaDOT is so rdy - LONGPolkadot just made a full 886 retrace with a Type 2 return, double bottom right at the 886
now just look what happened after last full retrace
One could easily setup a trade here and stop out below the double bottom sind you don't wanna have anything to do with DOT below that major accumulation structure.
Take your profits wisely according to those fiblevels. 38-61 is the golden zone but keep some for the moon ;)
Good luck on your trading, stay safe!
Nasdaq Dip Now >> Santa Rally NextLooking for a leg down to complete a 4th wave in Nasdaq & S&P . The recent strength can be counted as a B wave with C expected down. A very long trend line and recent touches on it could amount to a bit of a snap if it breaks. C waves are often an impulse as well, so it could be a quick decline...
But it is a bull market so expect surprises to the upside as noted, shorting may not even be a good option here.
If I'm right there should be a good buying opportunity which could amount to a Santa Rally if it sustains.
If you aren't familiar with the 88.6% Fibonacci, .886 is the square root of .786... hence the note on the chart.
I will likely short at 62% or 78.6% of A with a risk to the 88.6% depending on how the evening proceeds.
NZDUSD Longer Term ShortWe've seen some rapid bullish movement on this pair over the past few weeks, almost 10 weeks straight up. This pair is well overdue a major correction and I really like this area to take a short. We're just about on the 886 reversal on what is a HTF bearish chart. Until price action breaks those previous highs this is still bearish in my eyes and this area gives us a great RR nearly 6 to 1 to short to the 38.2 retracement, that is a modest target I feel as well because if this decides to make another leg down there's a huge trade to be had but let's not get greedy!
OMGUSD - Surivival Mode Initiated? Longing with caution...Disclaimer:
OMGUSD could have made a higher low here but I'm aware OMGBTC is currently at all time lows so this is definitely a punt, I don't give financial advise but if you were to ask my opinion, this is a low risk trade, the chance of this working is slim though. Reward very nice if it does work but my position size is extremely small due to this essentially being a shot in the dark.
Analysis:
I'm not big into fundamental analysis but generally I believe many of the alts of the 2017 bull run will not survive the current cull we are experiencing. If 2017 was the equivalent of the early 2000s dot-com bubble popping, only a few recover and even less end up making new highs. OMG could easily be a part of this list too but the company is still active and of all the ERC20 tokens, it is one of the top 10 (currently 7th I believe of the ERC20 tokens). Personally I do believe Ethereum will stick around for the long term in this market (it has the most developers by far) so some of it's companion tokens should too. Yes, Ethereum was used and abused heavily for many ICOs, many of which were scams but there are companies still active and still hard at work - doesn't guarantee they will be a success in terms of future prices of course.
Moving on the technical side, I've spotted an 0.886 retrace (perfect so far) after a pretty strong move (up over 200%) from early Feb 2019 this year. The only thing we're missing right now is a bounce.
If we can hold and turn at this level the sensible first target is a return to the 0.5 fib level. I have plotted some other targets and failure points if this is the start of an Elliot Wave, I've measured where Wave 3 could hit (2 target zones) and the failure zone is if we can't break the top or just get above it (making an ABC equal measured move, downtrend likely to continue).
Stop level is pretty close so if this fails I'll be wrong quickly (which is how I like to trade - get out quick if I'm wrong and take a small loss, stay in as long as possible if I'm right to maximise profit potential).
Good luck out there!
EURAUD: Major Support & Bat PatternThe EURAUD price dropped significantly last few days and it getting close to the major support level at 1.5630. The price respected that level multiple times (green arrows) and it is more likely it will do it again. The sellers are going to lock their profits and buyers are going to step in, which will increase the price up.
Moreover, the EURAUD formed a bat pattern, which increases the probability of this trade. The price already touched 88.6 Fibonacci retracement as an entry point to go long.
T1 – 38.2%
T2 – 61.8%