WE ARE IN A LEVEL OF STAND BY POSITION, WAIT FOR THE NEXT VOLUMEPlease share with me your thoughts,
wait for the right moment to decide wisely,
Kind regards
9500
Why $9,500 Will Break And Moon Very Soon
Explanation is on the chart. Enjoy the show.
Please like the post if you liked it.
FIX: On 8200 major support tested and bounced hard, I meant the 9200 level!
BTC 50% upside trade with a March 2020 breakout
As mentioned in the last post, we saw the fall back after trying to defend $8460 but we didnt hit $7950 and we might not. We saw a little support from what may be an upper channel support riding about $1000 above the 5 year ascending trend line. At this point there appears to be one of two more probable medium term options for BTC.
#1 This upper channel holds and forces us into an ascending wedge with $9500 historic support/resistance topping the wedge. We break from the wedge around early/mid March 2020, if we break down there is a good chance we see the 5year ascending trend line again around $7850. If it breaks up then we likely see a run for $14k next.
#2 We fall down into a $1000 range channel that is forming just above the 5yr ascending trendline and we ride this channel slowly up until we are forced into a wedge that has a breakout somewhere around mid/late may. A break down would break the 5 year trendline and would be extremely negative for BTC, a break up would likely be a run to $14k. This channel offers a great trade opportunity by buying every time it touches the 5 year trend line and selling with a trailing stop loss to lock in gains.
In either scenario, any meaningful break below the 5 year trend line would be a strong sell signal. Any meaningful break above $9500 would indicate a breakout with a 50% upside potential
I believe BTC is fairly strong right now and there is a strong possibility of the #1 scenario playing out with a break out in March. The lines give strong advice when to consider an entry or exit but there is always a risk, this is not investment advice, DYOR.
Also please consider supporting my market depth analytics page, this brings a whole new dynamic to trading. We also have intergated TradingView charts in pre-production now but will be releasing them to production soon. BTC depth page link is here @ vcdepth.io
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BTC broke out, now keep your eyes on the size! $9500 /$14000Leading up to now:
For this we need to zoom out some, we are looking at just over the last two years of price action with 1d candles. In the first wave, we tested the long term ascending trendline after coming down hard from our $21k high to just over $3k. After the first wave crashed, we stuck around the bottom of the long-term ascending trendline for 4/5 months from December 2018 to April 2019 before we finally took off on the second wave which ran to $14k before starting this most recent 6/7 month descending channel of sadness. The descending channel drove the price into the 5 year ascending trendline twice where the second test of support launched BTC on the run we are currently enjoying. It is possible that we could see a similar delay between waves but right now the charts seem to be indicating no such thing.
It’s the Size of the wave that counts:
Lets talk about the importance of the size of the waves. First wave, $20k, second wave $14k, that’s a $6k reduction. We have some long-term support/resistance coming up at $9500 currently ($4500 reduction from last high). Maybe we only see this wave go to $9500, maybe the waves continue to diminish until BTC is too weak to maintain longterm support or maybe just a large Elliot wave needs to complete before the next big jump. There should be some relief one might have after we break current $9500 resistance but the real sigh of relief will be when wave 3 surpasses the height of wave2 confirming a strengthening trend rather than diminishing. Ultimately if we see BTC top the 20k high of before it would be extremely bullish for the long term charts and making 6 figure BTC extremely likely in the future.
Whats next? (higher probability)
-We run to $9500 over the next 24-48 hours then pull back off of $9500 and form a nice ascending wedge (green) that runs until late May making a breakout up or down, likely around Mid-April. There is a good chance breaking up out of this wedge could land us into another wedge (Red) between $14k and the 5 year trendline with a break out somewhere around September 2020.
-We pull back and ride the top of the previous descending channel down to around $7600 and slowly rise hanging out around the 5 year trendline for a few months like we did after wave2
-We could break right through $9500 and treat it much like we treated $7800, we could run all the way up to $14k in short order. There could be a lot of pressure to stay under $14k especially after such an exhaustive run. This may cause the price action to form a channel between $9600ish and $14k before forming an ascending wedge(red) with the $14k resistance (Wave2 high) and the 5 year trendline. a break upwards from here will be to test the previous ATH, a break down below the 5year trend still would be a big sell signal.
-We blow through everything, $9800, $14k, $21k and go on a run making all new highs, never looking back. Also a good chance that 21k may cause us heartache trying to jump it, will look at that more as we near it.
Realistically this is a little soon to say where this might go after this breakout, it just got started so I suspect you guys will see a revision after we see where this run starts to consolidate and/or correct.
For myself and my risk pallet, I see every touch of the 5 year ascending trendline as a great opportunity to add to long positions and/or pickup long-leveraged positions. Also If we break down (and hold) the 5 year trendline, I would likely pull most all of my assets out of the market and sit on the sidelines for a while.
These are my observations as an investor and trader, it is not investment advice, always DYOR .
Bitcoin Long position target 9150-9500I want to start this off by saying i believe bitcoin already broke the channel resistance.
as you can see we tested 7800 and responded with an engulfing daily candle, this test was according to my chart and theory the retest of the channels overhead resistance.
To support my idea i have 2 indicators giving bullish signals:
-Stochastic
the stochastic on the daily broke up to the bullish control zone and is now getting a positive posture,
i believe closing anywhere near 8200 today will confirm this cross up.
-SAR (stop and reverse)
The SAR if you are familiar with it, is a indicator that uses dots, the weekly gave a Bullish signal.
Also a indicator which i am not very familiar with, the ichimoku cloud on the daily got a green twist,
as im not very know with this indicator and i cant really tell what this setup means i believe this is also a bullish signal.
So if this were to play out i would have targets from 9150 ( 200 SMA ) to 9500 ( latest top on the weekly)
I dont have any sort of clues after what would happen afterwards but if bitcoin were to get a close above 9500 on the weekly i will extend this target to 12000 over time and possibly higher.
