SPX 500USD, Long The SPX 500USD is breaking unto a yearly trendline support from 20th April 2020.
The market is ready to retest the weekly EMA-50 and Daily EMA 200 on that same support at 4257 which coincides with the yearly upside trendline support.
My bias is that the trend will be upside from the liquidity zone and yearly trendline support.
I am also expecting a bearish wave of the DXY in this week and coming weeks.
A-flat
XAUUSD, Long from the liquidity zone (1915)Gold is currently reacting on a key level (1925) which has the Daily EMA-50, 4Hr EMA 200/50/20 on clusted there.
The 4hr candle closing below these EMAs could spark a short to the next liquidity zone (1915).
The 4Hr candle closing above the EMA-200/50/20 could spark buys to 1952 potentially but before the market will buy, i will expect some liquidity drops to 1915 before any potential long at the back of an expected bearish wave of the DXY.
DXY, Ready to ShortThe last week DXY movement fulfilled my idea which I predicted price to hit the key level at 105.8
For the past 13 -14 weeks, the DXY has been on an ascending trend from 99.23 to 105.756. The current resistance has been a key level since 1st December 2022.
Price is currently reacting on a resistance trendline of the main ascending channel since 26th September 2022.
The resistance trendline coincides with the 105.834 key resistance which has historically driven the DXY down.
The DXY could initiate a BEARISH WAVE first to 103.100 to retest the Daily EMA-200 & 50.
The FED could consider a rate hike in the last quarter of 2023 in the midst of a possible DXY bearish waves.
Bitcoin - Price in 2025 revealed! (Take profits here)
The price of Bitcoin will be 120,000–130,000 USD in Q2 2025, according to my technical analysis! There is a strong confluence to sell Bitcoin here, and a lot of people will do it, so make sure you take profit in the next bull run.
First of all, this is an analysis of the weekly chart on a linear scale, not a log scale. If we take the Fibonacci extension from the end of the previous bear market in 2018 to the end of the previous bull market in 2021 to the end of the previous bear market in 2022 (dashed white line on the chart), we get really interesting numbers! The most likely is the 1.618 FIB extension, which is 122,011 USD! But we also need to take the 1:1 FIB extension into consideration because this is also a strong resistance, but only for a short-term bounce.
We also need to take a look at trendlines. In this case, the trendline from 2017 to 2021 gives us a projection for the next possible touch. It should be in 2025, and it's also around 125,000 USD! If you find this analysis helpful, hit the like / boost button right now!
There is not too much place on the chart anymore, so let's do more data in one of my next analyses! But what I also want to mention is the time variable. 1428 days +/- was the duration of the bear cycle and bull cycle between 2017 - 2021. If history repeats itself, then the bull market should end in October 2025.
And I cannot forget to also take the Elliott Wave analysis into consideration. It works really well on Bitcoin, and wave (1) + wave (2) should be completed. We already started wave (3), which is usually the strongest! So I hope you look forward to the upcoming price action.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
EURUSD, To ShortLast Thursday's ECB Press conference lacked hawkish statements which weaken the currency to slide down the levels as majority of the ECB Board wanted a pause in the rate.
The EURUSD has been on a descending channel since 17th July to date.
Price is currently correcting after hitting the 1.06310 support level and it is expected to fulfil a Fibonacci retracement to the 61.8% level before further shorts down to the 1.05192 support level.
DXY, to continue price ascending to 105.834Last week's DXY index candle bullishly closed with a strong rejection with from the 104.643 support because all of the USD fundamentals (The CPI, Core PPI, Core Retail Sales, etc.) which occurred last week went to strengthen the dollar.
The DXY is expected to consolidate between current level of 105.351 and 105.00 since there is not important fundamentals between Monday and Tuesday before a potential rise to 105.834
There are important fundamentals coming up this week form Wednesday to Friday
-FOMC Statement and press conference
-Federal Funds Rate
-Unemployment Claims
-Flash Manufacturing PMI
🥇GOLD - Correction before further decline Gold bounces off the local support at 1915 and the price returns to retest the key resistance. Price is in a range and we are now interested in flat resistance.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Pin bar resistance 1934.
2) Price does not reach one of the key resistances 1949 for a few pips, indicating strong pressure from the resistance
3) At the same time, active sell-offs are forming and a pin-bar is forming on the chart
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is forming a rebound and heading towards 1928.5
2) The resistance area may be tested soon before further decline
3) The market is bearish now and we should look for strong resistance levels for further selling
Key resistance📈: 1928.5, 1934.8
Key support📉: 1922. 1915. 1908
💱 EURAUD - The market is preparing for further decline EURAUD is forming a local flat after breaking through 1.6658. The market is forming a retest of support, but there will be a chance of a breakout if the price comes back again after a small rebound
TA on the high timeframe:
1) We have a bearish trend
2) A pre-breakout consolidation is forming near 1.64975
3) Another support retest may break the level and form an impulse to 1.61900
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is descending in steps within the bearish channel, which indicates a strong trend
2) Support at 1.64885 and multiple retests of it are forming.
3) The market is preparing to break this line and further fall.
4) The sell signal will be a retest and consolidation below the support level
Key resistance📈: 1.66122
Key support📉: 1.64885
GOLD → Friday is trading inside a range OANDA:XAUUSD is recovering after strong sell-offs and a false break of the 1915 sideways range support. Within the flat we expected this movement, but in the medium term gold has a negative fundamental background
On Friday, gold will continue to stay inside this range, consolidation will continue. The price may test one of the nearest resistances before falling to 1922 and 1915. At the same time, TVC:DXY is overcoming the strong resistance at 105.00, which I wrote about earlier. A dollar fixing above this boundary will open the way to 107.5, which will be a good reason for gold to weaken to 1915 and even 1900. On the senior timeframe, where we can determine the medium and long term, the chart shows us targets such as 1850 and 1800, but by then there will be a lot of fundamental news that can change a lot of things. From a local analysis point of view, I expect a fall to 1922, 1915 and even 1900, but not in one day.
Resistance levels: 1928.5, 1930.7, 1935.
Support levels: 1922, 1915
I expect that today the market will sell out again what it bought in the second half of Thursday and the first half of Friday. And, we will see the price close near the 1915 support, which will give a signal for next week
OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY COMEX:SI1!
Regards R. linda!
GBPJPY → Pound Sterling correction on the fundamental backgroundFX:GBPJPY is forming an attempt to change the trend. The market on the background of the fundamental component related to inflation and the UK interest rate breaks the support of the ascending price channel and fixes in the red zone
The currency pair is forming consolidation and following the weakening of the Pound Sterling is heading downwards. From the point of view of technical analysis - the main potential target in the medium term is the support at 177.4 - the extreme point of the shakeout before the last rise.
Most likely, when the Central Bank of Great Britain announced the halt of rate hikes and further rate cuts, the currency started to form a correction after the tight policy.
After breaking the support, a correction to the previously broken boundary is formed on the chart and the currency pair consolidates for further decline. In the long term, I expect a medium-term decline in the price to the specified target.
Support levels: 181.2
Resistance levels: 181.96
The medium-term target is indicated on the chart. Fundamental and technical analysis indicate further decline.
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - Selling off on weak news. Pin-bar Gold is losing almost 1.5% amid sell-offs. Yesterday, before the FED speech, the market maker strengthened the price to 1947.3. The news was strong for the dollar and weak for gold, thus we see a strong sell-off and at the moment the price is at 1919.5.
Ta on the high timeframe:
1) False break of resistance at 1934
2) A strong candlestick pattern is formed for further selling.
3) A pin-bar is formed on the background of the false breakout. Target 1900
TA on the low timeframe:
1) False breakout of sideways range resistance defines further targets as 1910, 1907, 1901
2) Market is still bearish, price is falling below key levels
3) A retest of 1922.4 may soon follow before further declines
Key support📉: 1916.9
Key resistance📈: 1922.4
GOLD → Negative fundamental background. Shakeout OANDA:XAUUSD surprised many people yesterday, but not us. On the background of the previous days analysis (technical + fundamental) we had an idea about further actions on the market
In brief: Powell left the rate unchanged, but there were a lot of words that if the market remains aggressive, they will apply appropriate measures. And considering the fact that based on all the FOMC & FED actions against inflation, it is only getting stronger, the market can be considered aggressive, hence, the fundamental backdrop for gold is still negative, as the TVC:DXY will continue to rise.
In terms of technical analysis, gold is forming a false breakout of the following liquidity zones: 1928, 1935, 19466 at the moment Powell's speech ends and the market actively sells off the entire rise. On D1 the price again forms a false breakout of trend resistance, preparing the market for further decline. A retest of MA-200 on H1 with a subsequent breakout and decline to 1915 - 1900 may be formed soon
Support levels: 1922, 1915, 1902
Resistance levels: 1928
I expect a possible retest of the nearest resistance areas before a further fall against the negative fundamental background and the current bearish trend
OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY TVC:BXY CAPITALCOM:SILVER OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1!
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin - 202% profit, next target 79959 USD!
Bitcoin is absolutely ready for a massive uptrend to my profit target of 79959 USD! In this analysis, I will tell you why Bitcoin is bullish.
First of all, we need to take a look at the weekly candles. The last weekly candle is a bullish engulfing candle. It means that the body of the candle engulfed the previous candle. Strong reversal signal, especially on the weekly chart!
From the Elliott Wave perspective, we have completed the major wave (2) with a WXYXZ corrective pattern (triple three). Bitcoin is starting a new impulse wave (3)! Usually waves 3 are the strongest waves, and in this case, I expect the target to be at the 1.618 FIB extension of wave (1) => wave (2).
The next bullish signal is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). As we can see, the price is holding this key dynamic support, and the bulls successfully defended it! This EMA is considered to have strong support or resistance by huge institutions and hedge funds.
Now for a pretty important question: what are the resistances on the way up to 80k? It's definitely the 0.618 FIB + POC of the previous market structure, which is at 38984. Then 48234 as a previous swing high, and of course the previous all-time high at 69000. You can use these levels for a potential quick short trade on the futures market with leverage!
The downtrend basically ended in January 2023 after breaking the major blue trendline. We also had a retest of this trendline in March 2023.
The price in March was around 25k and now in September, the price is around 26k after 6 months of sideways price action. This is a great opportunity to buy/long Bitcoin, so you don't need to wait 6 months for boring price action!
What do you think, guys? Are you ready for a massive bull market? Let me know in the comment section down below! I must know your opinion.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
GOLD → The market is waiting for the FOMC. What to expect? OANDA:XAUUSD is reducing volatility amid expectations of FOMC data release. Earlier we saw an attempt to break the strong trend resistance, but now there are nuances appearing
The Federal Reserve is not going to raise or lower rates (at the level of rumors). In any case, this is positive-neutral news for the dollar. That is, if the situation does not change, the negative background for the gold market will be confirmed, and an attempt to break the trend resistance will be a trap on the part of the market maker. A false breakout will increase the liquidity volume and may form a strong red impulse. At the moment the level of 1928 separates us from the fall. And in general, the resistance of 1938.9 is important for the market - the level has not been tested yet, and it may happen at the moment of reporting publication due to the increased volatility. But, if TVC:DXY happens to get a weak (negative) fundamental background, gold may confirm the breakout of trend resistance and head towards 1950.
Price is trading inside the moving averages range, the market is giving us a false breakout of MA-50
Resistance levels: 1932, 1935, 1939
Support levels: 1928, 1922
The medium-term outlook for XAU depends partly on today's FOMC press release, which comes out at 18:00 GMT. Strong data for $ will negatively impact XAU pricing and vice versa
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY → Ascending triangle will provide bullish momentum FX:USDJPY is strengthening on the background of the dollar indices growth. The currency pair continues to form a bullish price channel and in addition forms a pattern, which may form a bullish impulse in the near future.
On the chart I have marked an ascending price channel, its structure plays a key role in the current pricing of the forex currency pair. An ascending triangle was formed relative to the level of 147.800. The set-up of this triangle can be explained as a provocation of buyers relative to the limit resistance level put up by the market maker or big sellers. The market continues to pressure this area. The very figure of ascending triangle was formed in the moment of local correction of dollar index.
In the near term, I expect another retest of 147.816 followed by a breakout of resistance.
Support levels: 147.00, 146.150
Resistance levels: 147.816
I expect a breakout of this resistance with the subsequent formation of a medium-term upward movement to 150.00.
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - Price tends to move higher, but there's news ahead...Gold broke the strong resistance area of 1928.5 earlier, now the price is aiming for the next resistance ahead of the release of important news.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) FOMC is not going to raise rates this time. I think the data release could have a big impact on metal pricing
2) In the long term, there is a chance that the price will start its decline, as the gold market is still under pressure from the negative fundamental background.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price in the 1938 - 1928 range. The upper boundary has not been tested yet. Above 1938 a liquidity area has formed, which the market is interested in
2) Most likely the price can test both 1938 and 1948, but the FOMC and Federal Reserve data will determine further targets for both the dollar and gold.
3) It is difficult to decide the future direction in advance, so I recommend not trading before the news is released
Key support📉: 1928
Key resistance📈: 1938
🥇GOLD - The global correction in the form of a ↘︎ may be overGOLD when breaking through the trend resistance on the D1 and W1 chart enters the phase of realization of the accumulated potential. The liquidity area interesting for the market is around 1930 and around 1950. The lower area is tested and the upper area gets the "liquid" accolade
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Bearish trend resistance breakout
2) The market forms an impulse
3) The liquidity area of 1930 pushes the price away
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Breakout of sideways range resistance
2) Market acquires a formal support line. The area is still weak and the market may test nearby support before further gains
3) Local trend is changing.
Key support📉: 1930, 1928.5
Key resistance📈: 1948
💱EURUSD - Resistance retest amid DXY growth haltEURUSD is still within a downtrend. On D1 we see the beginning of a reaction to a strong support line. There is a chance that on H1 price could break resistance
TA on the high timeframe:
1) if we pay attention to XAUUSD, gold is rising on the background of DXY growth stop. If the latter starts an active decline (news this week), eurusd will give a bullish impulse to 1.08023
2) Against the background of support retest at 1.0635 we see the beginning of correction
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price does not reach trend support as a strong liquid area below 1.0635 (limit support level) is formed, which pushes price away
2) A retest of trend resistance is forming. On a bounce off strong support, price could quite possibly break this area.
3) An impulse to 1.08023 could form on a break of resistance, but if the breakout is false price will form a rebound to support
Key resistance📈: 1.0707, channel resistance
Key support📉: 1.0635
🥇GOLD - False breakdown forms a double top Gold on Friday forms a false breakdown of flat resistance (indicated on the chart). On Monday, the market forms a retest of the upper boundary and forms a false breakout again.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) The market is still continuing to form a bearish trend
2) A retest of the liquidity area forms a false breakout, indicating buyer weakness at the moment.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Consolidation under resistance is forming. The market is preparing to fall
2) Within the flat we have the following targets: 1916.7 and 1907.6, which can be reached in the near future
3) Ahead is the local support at 1922 which may push the price away. At this point, the market may retest the resistance
4) We care about the dollar's reaction to the news. If the dollar starts to rise and overcomes the resistance, gold will head towards 1900.
Key resistance📈: 1928.5
Key support📉: 1922, 1916 and 1907
💱USDCAD - The market is testing the limit support area USDCAD is forming a retest of the key support area. The correction phase is quite deep and amounts to almost 1.5% of the price. Most likely, as long as the market is standing still, including the dollar, the currency pair can form a false breakdown of the liquidity area
TA on the drawdown timeframe:
1) support retest, we have 5 confirmations. The level was resistance earlier, now it plays the role of support - a strong formation.
2) Flat formation
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A flat, both local and global, is being formed
2) Retest of the support at 1.34970 may form a false breakout with further strengthening.
3) BUT! Judging by D1, bears are pressing the market hard. There is a chance of breakout and fall
4) Consolidation either below or above the level will form the entry point.
Key support📉: 1.34970
Key resistance📈: 1.35668
GOLD → Another false breakout on resistance retest OANDA:XAUUSD is weakening after a resistance retest that ends in a false resistance breakout. Yesterday, in Sunday's XAU idea, I talked about prioritizing a further drop as the dollar is poised to rise further and gold forms a false break of trend resistance
Price is back under a strong descending resistance line. Consolidation below this line will form a strong bearish potential.
The TVC:DXY forms a retest of 105.00, a fairly strong resistance that holds the price for a long time. This week there are many key news that will affect the market pricing and the $ value, which will give us a medium term outlook for both forex and gold. At the moment I expect a further decline in the price. The first important target is 1916.7, then 1903.8. The second option is important if the fundamental background does not change its direction.
Resistance levels: 1928, 1926
Support levels: 1916, 1903
The market is testing the resistance for a breakout, but it is not ready yet, as the fundamental background for gold is still on the side of the bears
OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The certainty of a strong market or the trap of MM?OANDA:XAUUSD is strengthening at the end of the week and closed above Monday's open. BUT! The dollar is also strengthening and on the chart we see several key elements forming and an important zone that can give us strong signals.
In the coming week, the following news is worth paying attention to:
09.19
CPI (YoY) EUR
09.20
CPI (YoY) USD
FOMC
FED
09.21
Initial Jobless Claims
FED
09.22
S&P Global Services PMI
It is worth paying attention to the W1 dollar chart and the XAU 1D. A bearish wedge is forming on the chart, but a large candle was formed on Friday, within which gold has little chance of breaking through this area yes and in tandem with a rising dollar. There is a high chance of a correction beginning as we see a false break of a strong resistance zone on the hourly timeframe.
The price is forming a fljt 1928 - 1903. The upper boundary is being tested and at the same time price is forming a false breakdown of a key liquidity and resistance area and most likely we may see a correction to 1916 or even 1903 on Monday. BUT! If the dollar, which is giving a strong signal to break resistance, fails to go up and starts a correction, then gold may well be able to break the above upper zone and start rising towards 1950, as the price is now looking more correct than expected on the back of TVC:DXY strengthening.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin - Pump to 31k soon! (Diamond pattern)
Bitcoin crashed to 25k recently, but a huge pump followed immediately after a false breakout of the head and shoulders pattern. Bitcoin was heading down to continue in the downtrend to 21k, but a huge buyer suddenly appeared and sent bitcoin to the upside. Is this a strong reversal pattern? I think so!
It looks like Bitcoin is refusing to go lower, which is great news and that's why we need to react to the recent price action and open a long position on futures or buy Bitcoin!
It's always extremely important to do an analysis with the Elliott Wave theory to predict future prices. In Bitcoin's case, we have a triple three (WXYXZ) corrective pattern, which you can see on the chart. It's a sign of strength, and this should send Bitcoin to 31K later this year!
The diamond pattern looks really interesting; as you can see, the right shoulder and left shoulder are made of parallel channels. The right shoulder is not formed yet, but we will get there.
I have to be bullish on Bitcoin as the bulls stepped in, and to make more money, we want to speculate on the price increase until January.
I believe October, November, and December will be extremely bullish for the price of Bitcoin!
Is this the bottom of Bitcoin? And will Bitcoin continue to rise to 40k and therefore to a new all-time high? This question will be revealed in my next analysis, so make sure you subscribe / follow!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!