GOLD → Friday's buyback. NonFarm in the coming week OANDA:XAUUSD after breaking the global trend support and attempting to change the trend is not in a hurry to fall yet, most likely the price is looking for confirmation of which way to go. Consolidation is forming which may confuse many.
In the coming week there are quite important key reports:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (analysts expect a slight strengthening of the indicator)
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (may be followed by an improvement on the back of GDP growth)
- Initial Jobless Claims (analysts expect deterioration of the indicator, last week the indicator was upgraded at the forecasted deterioration).
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (analysts expect a deterioration)
- NonFarm Payrolls ! (Analysts expect it to worsen from 209K to 184K)
- Unemployment Rate (unchanged)
Against the backdrop of a rising GDP and a relative decline in inflation (unconfirmed), the indicators of the upcoming news may change relative to the expected data. If the expected data is confirmed, then the dollar may lose some ground and give a little room for gold to strengthen.
From the technical analysis point of view:
The price is in a sideways flat after the breakout of the global bullish channel. Everyone expected a sharp fall after breaking the support, but with the unstable fundamental background, gold is strengthening and forming a flat within 1983 - 1935. If we take a closer look, we can see a reversal set-up against the upper boundary of the range, which is a strong resistance, but on Friday gold buys back a 0.9% drop and once again questions the H&S set-up formed.
At the moment the 1959.8 resistance plays a key role, the price forms a false break of the level but at the same time closes very close to this line, from the opening of the session a gap up could follow which would open the price above 1960. Since the price is flat and closed last session within the setup, the local strengthening may continue to 1980, and then we have to watch the price reaction to these levels.
We should also pay attention to the fact that on the background of the news a strong bearish impulse was formed, which broke several supports and formed a correction to 1959.8. If this level is held by the sellers, the bears may send the price to 1948 for a retest (negative fundamental background is still present in the market).
Regards R. Linda!
A-flat
Bitcoin - Huge alt-season is starting! (buy altcoins)
Bitcoin dominance is going down, and in confluence with this sideways price action, I expect a huge alt-season! It's a great time to buy some altcoins.
We can clearly see that the price of Bitcoin is stuck in this rising wedge pattern. Because of it, generally, there is a higher probability of the price going down, but we still have plenty of time, and the price can stay inside for another 30 or 50 days.
We need to wait for the rising wedge pattern to show us the direction. The trendline of the rising wedge is slightly ascending, which is unpleasant to the bulls for a breakout. It tends to make swing failure patterns above the previous high, but you can take advantage of it and short it.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Trading Bitcoin on higher timeframes is currently not worth it because of its low volatility. You can still trade it on an intraday basis. But I prefer altcoins at this moment because the Bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D) is showing some signs of weakness.
Bitcoin broke out of the market structure in recent days but quickly went back up. So we need to be patient. To increase the probability of success, switch to altcoins!
Litecoin's halving event is in 6 days, which should send the price to the moon. We will see... I am prepared for it.
This is a quick update on BTC; I am not short or long on it. I trade altcoins!
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BTCUSD → Price is forming a consolidation. Retest of 0.382 fiboBITSTAMP:BTCUSD is in the correction phase. The market is forming a decline in volatility to the lows of the last few months. Globally we still have an ascending price channel and a bullish trend.
The price is declining to the limits of 0.382 fibo. Consolidation is formed above this line, in this case if the price continues to consolidate near 0.382 in the absence of a bounce, a breakout may follow and the price may decline to 28474 for a retest.
A positive sign for us will be a rebound from 0.382 and a breakout of 0.236 with the subsequent consolidation of the price above the level, in this case the bulls will again begin to show potential and form a retest of resistance.
The medium-term view of the situation tells us that this technical correction may continue, but not for long. The price is testing the important support area MA50 - 28474.
In the long term it is worth paying attention to strong support levels, and secondly to the resistance, because in the uptrend it is worth looking for reversal points and entry points and breakout entry at these areas.
Support levels: 0.382 fibo, 28474, 0.618 fibo
Resistance levels: 0.236 fibo, 30575
I expect the correction to continue with a possible retest of 28474, but in the long term I expect continued growth to retest 30575 with a subsequent breakout and price movement to trend resistance.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Re-test of support after a heavy fallOANDA:XAUUSD is falling. After the news press release on Wednesday and Thursday, the price fell by 2.27 and this is one of the biggest drops in the last few weeks. The opening of the session begins with consolidation and repeated retest of support
The price is testing the support of 1948.16 and forms a small pullback and this is a fairly predictable reaction. The position in the market quickly turns over and sellers begin to dominate again. The market cannot form a deep pullback and forms a quick retest of support in 1948. This is a strong enough signal that the market is preparing for a continuation of the fall.
I think that there may be an attempt to buy back part of the fall, in which case the price may strengthen until 1959, but I am not sure that this level will be broken.
We monitor the reaction of the price to the specified levels.
Moving averages do not provide clean data, because a struggle between participants is taking shape in the market.
Support levels: 1948, 1933.9 (important level of 1939)
Resistance levels: 1955, 1960
I expect a possible rebound and another support retest, which will only increase the potential for an approaching support breakthrough. Medium-term goal 1939-1927
Sincerely, R. Linda!
EURUSD → The market is preparing for further decline FX:EURUSD is forming strong declines after the news on Wednesday and Thursday. The price is weakening by 2.95% amid the strengthening of the dollar
On the chart I have indicated the current range with a width of 3.97%. The range boundaries are resistance at 1.1075 and support at 1.0635. At the moment the asset is within the ascending channel, but this is not important for us, we are interested in the ascending support line, which plays a key role for the price. We are interested in the price reaction to this line to determine further decline. We should wait for either a breakout or a false breakout, the signal for a set-up will be consolidation below or above the line. Accordingly, if the price consolidates below the level, the market will form an area for entering short positions
Moving averages act as resistance
Support levels: Trend line, 1.0948, 1.0835
Resistance levels: 1.1075
Most likely in the long term we should expect a decline, but a rebound is possible against this line before a further fall. The lower boundary of the range could be a medium-term target.
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - Retest of a previously broken trend line Gold breaks local trend support and updates the low to 1942.5. A reversal pattern is forming on the global timeframe, but the fundamentals are giving the opposite signal.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) On the secondary movement on Wednesday and Thursday, the price failed to update the local high and is declining to the shoulder base area
2) A false breakdown of the liquidity area is being formed. If the price fixes below, the potential for a fall will be formed
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A break of support forms a correction to the previously broken line
2) The resistance area can be tested by a false breakout. For the short scenario to be confirmed we need to wait for consolidation below 1957
3) Price is forming a correction and testing 0.382 fibo, most likely there is a chance for consolidation to 0.5 fibo, but only the price reaction to this area will give us confirmation whether there will be a rise or fall
Key resistance📈: 0.382, 0.5 fibo, trend line
Key support📉: 1948
💱 NZDCHF - Pre-breakout setup. The market is getting to fall NZDCHF continues to observe a multi-month bearish trend. This time price finds limit support at 0.53362 and continues to make an onslaught on this zone.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) The strong bearish trend continues. Price is unable to update the local highs
2) Flat (consolidation) is being formed. Within the consolidation, the price is approaching the support for another breakout
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A bearish channel is formed. The price bounces off the resistance and tests the support
2) The currency pair is squeezed between 0.54000 and 0.53360
3) Another (4) support retest is formed. Under market pressure after the next test, the price may break the support and head lower towards 0.52500
Key support📉: 0.53360
Key resistance📈: 0.54000
🥇 GOLD - Retest on the back of the news could break resistanceGold is forming a quiet growth. Surprisingly, there is no violent reaction to the news, but at the same time the situation is still unstable. Today will be known data on employment and gdp. Keep an eye on the news!
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Price forms a flat resistance retest.
2) This quick retest implies that the market is ready to continue rising.
3) Price is approaching the liquidity zone. A bullish impulse may be formed when this zone is broken through.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is moving in fast volatile moves, but note that a large position is being gained due to the fact that a drop and rise is being formed on increased volatility, but at the same time price continues to strengthen.
2) A retest of 1983.6 may form a pullback, but not a big one.
3) Price is still far away from the resistance breakout and in this case it will have to form a pre-breakout consolidation or a quick retest of the resistance area
4) Growth is the priority. But it is possible that the growth will occur after a pullback
Key support📉: 1973, 1963
Key resistance📈: 1983.6
💱CADJPY - We expect resistance retest CADJPY is forming a narrowing range. The outline of a triangle is being formed. The global trend is bullish and prioritizing price may break resistance
TA on the high timeframe:
1) 109-104 range is forming. False break of 104 sends price to 109
2) The liquidity area that the market is interested in is above 107.8, most likely price can reach this area
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Downside resistance and upside support is forming a narrowing consolidation that is beginning to form a symmetrical triangle.
2) Globally, the forces are tipped towards the buyers, hence the market under trend pressure may break the market resistance.
3) A rebound from support is formed and the market is directed towards 107-107.6
4) We are waiting for growth to the resistance as a priority
Key support: 105.85
Key resistance: 107, 107.6
GOLD → Resistance Retest. Possible rebound before growth OANDA:XAUUSD amid FOMC speech realizes accumulated flag potential and strengthens, aiming for flat resistance, where it is at the moment
Published today:
12:30 GMT Core Durable Goods Orders (downgrade)
12:30 GMT GDP (QoQ) (improving)
12:30 GMT Initial Jobless Claims (?)
14:00 GMT Pending Home Sales (improving)
Overall there may be positive news for the USD, but it depends more on GDP & IJC. The reports of these releases will show the current situation on inflation.
Gold may decline with positive reports in the US market, but since the metal is in an uptrend and in a bullish set-up phase, I think that after retesting the flat resistance, the price may test one of the nearest supports before rising further. The SMA is again forming a cross.
Support levels: 1972.2, 1959.8
Resistance levels: 1983.7
I expect a storm in the market when the news is released. Report data may show a medium-term outlook. Gold chart so far gives hints of medium-term growth.
Regards R. Linda!
ZENUSDT → Exiting a bearish trend. Growth potential by 15.00BINANCE:ZENUSDT is forming a prolonged bearish wedge. Numerous resistance retests are inconclusive except for the last one. Against the backdrop of falling bitcoin, ZEN is showing strength.
The price after testing the bearish trend support consolidates and stops under the resistance at 9.66, forming an ascending triangle. Over the course of several weeks, price consolidates and continues to push up against resistance.
At the moment of volume surge, the price moves from the accumulation phase to the phase of realizing the potential. A breakout of resistance and a bullish impulse is formed.
A retest of the previously broken boundary or consolidation above 9.66 may be formed soon, which may give an opportunity to enter the market at a better price. It is also worth noting that the price is breaking the moving averages and this may indicate a trend change.
Support levels: 9.66, the previously broken trend boundary
Resistance levels: 11.4, 15.12
I expect the growth to continue after the breakout of 9.66. Medium-term outlook - strengthening to 15.12.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Awaiting the FOMC & Fed press release. ↑ or ↓ ?OANDA:XAUUSD is realizing the potential of the "flag" pattern I talked about yesterday. The correction wave is ending and the price continues to strengthen
Today, Wednesday, important news are published, we are interested in those that will be at 18:00 GMT from FOMC, FED. Current issues related to the rate and inflation, some representatives of this structure say that the rate may increase, and the temporary weakening of inflation may soon end amid geopolitical factors.
The gold price breaks correction resistance and starts to strengthen, testing the 1970 area. Below is one of the key support 1969.3, the expected consolidation above the level may form a potential for bullish movement. Before the news I recommend to trade carefully and try to reduce risks. Moving averages indicate a neutral stance in the market before the news.
Support levels: 1969.3
Resistance levels: 1973.5, 1983
If the news is bullish for the dollar, the surge in volume could destroy the gold's strength and in this case the price will move towards 1950, the technical analysis of the XAU suggests a continuation of the upside. Actually in this combination lies the difficulty.
Regards R. Linda!
NZDUSD → A combination of signals gives a reversal potential FX:NZDUSD makes a false break of 0.6381 resistance and forms a correction within the uptrend.
The price is testing the trend support, a reversal candlestick pattern is formed on the 4H timeframe.Collectively, we have a signal on the candlestick pattern, a false breakout of trend support and a false breakout of MA-200. Consolidation is formed above the mentioned moving average.
The price is testing 0.236 Fibo and most likely this zone can serve as a starting point. If the bulls are able to keep the price above this level in the current situation, we may see growth in the medium term.
Support levels: 0.236 fibo, MA-200, trend support.
Resistance levels: 0.382 fibo, 0.6305
I expect the currency pair to strengthen after fixation above the mentioned support line. Medium-term target is 0.6305 and 0.6381.
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - A flat is formed. Probable rebound from resistanceGold tends to rise as high as possible. But! Data will be published soon, most likely the market may be preparing for a rate hike.
TA on a high timeframe:
1) A surge in volumes may force the price to test the resistance of 1984. A false breakdown is possible even when bad news is published
2) The area of liquidity that the market is primarily interested in is around 1978-1985, and then the one around 1950
TA on a low timeframe:
1) A retest of 1973 can lead to an impulse to 1983.
2) It is difficult to say what the result will be in terms of the rate and inflation, so the market may shake up a lot tonight.
3) In priority, since the situation is worse than neutral, the price may weaken against the background of a rate hike and a strengthening dollar.
Key Resistance📈: 1973, 1983
Key Support📉: 1963
Bitcoin - Bearish 21k target confirmed! (Bart pattern)
The Bart pattern is now confirmed, and it doesn't look good at all for the price of Bitcoin! We need to react to the recent price action, and this pattern is breaking down. I would not be surprised if we woke up in the morning and saw a big red dildo!
You can say that Bitcoin is still inside the major parallel channel and that we are still bullish, but I can tell you that the trendline has already touched three times, and only a small bounce is expected on the fourth touch. This channel is starting to be overextended, and it looks like we are going to see a huge crash!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
My target is still 21K, as you already know. I am not buying any BTC for the long term until we reach this target. It's a strong support because of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the unfilled CME futures gap.
September is usually an extremely bearish month, and October is not the best either. I think the best scenario is if we see a huge, fast crash, so we can buy cheap bitcoin as soon as possible.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, a huge major impulse wave (1) has been completed, and we are looking for an ABC correction. Markets, especially Bitcoin, move in clear waves, and this theory is pretty good for it.
I warned you about this Bart pattern in my previous analysis, saying that it's a very possible scenario. This was definitely a good idea, and now the price is going down.
I am now bearish on Bitcoin and expect lower prices. Let me know in the comment section what you think!
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
🥇GOLD - Retest of new trend resistance Gold is forming a correction, a new range is formed, which has its downward resistance. Earlier, the price formed a retest of the line and updated the local minimum.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) False breakout of resistance 1984
2) Bearish momentum is forming
3) Medium-term target is the liquidity area below 1943
TA on high timeframe:
1) False breakout sends the price down and it updates the local low
2) A correction to resistance is forming, anything can happen on the background of fundamental factors, but at the moment the bearish scenario prevails
Key resistance📈: 0.236 Fibo, 1963
Key support📉: 1953
💱GBPJPY - The price is squeezed in a range. Possible decline GBPJPY is forming a symmetrical triangle. The price is testing the resistance and falling (rebound). Another retest may not yield results and the price within the triangle may head towards 179.77
TA on the high timeframe:
1) The trend has stopped and the price is forming a sideways flat pattern
2) False breakout and consolidation below the liquidity area gives a chance to fall to 180.00.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A retest of pattern resistance is forming. Price from the upper line may head down.
2) Price has potential and local target within the pattern - lower area and 180.00 zone
3) But! If the fundamental component changes, the price in the format of the resistance retest can break it and continue the trend aimed at strengthening of the currency pair.
Key support📉: 180.75, 179.77
Key resistance📈: 182.17, 182.52
GOLD → A retest of trend resistance. Breakout or rebound? OANDA:XAUUSD is forming a bearish price channel after breaking the upward range support.
Price is testing new trend resistance, what to expect from price next?
As we see fundamental complexities in the market, it is hard to determine a clear direction at the moment, we will pay attention to technical analysis.
Gold is testing the resistance of the ascending channel and then forms a consolidation below, in the red zone, thus forming an entry point for selling.
The market is restrained from falling by the support level of 1959.8. And the price is restrained from the opposite scenario by the trend resistance.
Breakout of the upper boundary of the channel can form an impulse, which will be a part of the realization of the pattern "flag"
But if the support of 1959.8 is broken, we will see a fall to 1940.
It is also worth paying attention to the cross of moving averages.
Support levels: 1959.8
Resistance levels: trend upper boundary, 1969.3
I expect more likely to break the support and further fall, but the price may test an attempt to break the resistance.
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - Wedge breakout and resistance retest Gold is breaking support of the rising wedge and is getting sell signals. On D1, price bounces off range resistance and likely gets downside potential
TA on the high timeframe:
1) False breakout of 0.5 fibo gives a sell signal. The price continues to fall
2) During the European session, the price tries to buy back some of the decline, but the resistance area may stop the price
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Wedge support breakout. A correction is formed
2) The correction reaches 0.236 fibo and the price makes a false breakout
3) The liquidity area that may be of interest to the market is below 1953 and 1945 - this area may be a target for us.
Key resistance📈: 1965, 1972
Key support📉: 1957, 1953
GOLD → A retest of resistance may push the price downward OANDA:XAUUSD is forming a retest of 1959.8 from the opening of the session, but the market is not ready yet. A rebound is being formed to retest the resistance area
A review on the D1 timeframe gives us several indications that the market is still dominated by the bearish half. A global false breakout has been formed.
Locally, the price is in consolidation between 1959.8 - 1970.2. The price is steamed up for a possible retest of the resistance area, since the uptrend was broken earlier, sell signals are forming on D1, the resistance area may push the price down further.
It is acceptable to buy the insturment on a breakout of 1970.2, a false breakout of 1970.2, 1967 will form an entry point for selling.
Support levels: 1959.8
Resistance levels: 1967, 1970.2
Situation is not easy. The price is heading for resistance (retest) after the trend break. Most likely the price will continue to fall from the resistance, but it is necessary to monitor the behavior of the price near this area.
Regards R. Linda!
GBPAUD → False breakdown and upward movement to retestFX:GBPAUD continues to form a bullish trend, as the high timeframe tells us.
The price makes a false breakdown of the moving average and returns to the range.
The price has returned to the ascending price channel and may form a retest or consolidation above the support level in the nearest future.
At the moment the price is squeezed within the flat 1.9184 and 1.9035. Most likely the price has the upper boundary of the range as a target.
An intraday retest of resistance may follow for a breakout.
Since we have an uptrend, a false breakout of support and MA-200, the market is ready to continue rising.
Another breakout attempt at 1.9184 may be successful and the price may show active growth.
Support levels: 1.9035, trend support
Resistance levels: 1.9184
I expect a retest of resistance with a subsequent breakout. Medium-term target: 1.9393.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → False breakout 0.618. What should we prepare for? OANDA:XAUUSD on the daily timeframe shows an interesting situation, which can be confusing for those who set big targets for the price rally, which ended with a false break of resistance 1981.6
The price within two weeks is forming a strengthening , investors and whales were talking about big plans, but at the same time the dollar reversed to appreciation and this situation formed a false breakout of a key resistance level on the gold chart.
Since at the moment the price is in the range of 1981 - 1935, most likely after the retest of resistance the price may go down to the support. Three bearish candles are formed, each new candle closing below the previous one. The chart gives us a strong bearish wave.
In the coming week a lot of strong news is published and the market may be quite shaky.
It is worth paying attention to:
FOMC Statement
Fed Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Press Conference
ECB Interest Rate Decision (eur)
GDP
Initial Jobless Claims
Core PCE
These speeches and press releases can give a medium-term view of the market behavior.
The price tested 0.618 fibo and the market did not allow gold to pass this area. Consolidation is formed in the red zone, this fact can be interpreted as a readiness of the market to decline.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin - Secret pattern no one talks about! (insider info)
This secret parallel channel on the LOG scale is very important for your trades because you want to take profits if the price reaches the top of the descending channel! This is a dynamic resistance, so the trendline changes over time, but currently the resistance is around 39K.
39K is a strong level not only because of this channel but also because of the 0.618 FIB retracement of the previous huge downtrend and the POC of the previous market structure (volume profile).
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately!
What I expect is for Bitcoin to reach the 39K level and then make a significant correction. This correction should be pretty deep. Because we will be retracing the first Elliott impulse wave, the 0.618 FIB is a classic buy opportunity, and it's around 21k.
After we reach 21K, I expect Bitcoin to pump heavily to the 69K all-time high resistance. This is indeed a strong level as well, so this could be the peak of the 3rd Elliott impulse wave. The 5th wave is expected to end around 100k–110k in 2025.
This is my gameplan; I don't know what yours is, so let me know in the comment section right now!
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You may say that 110k is not enough and that Bitcoin should do much more than that. Yeah, I agree with you, but we need to be realistic. Bitcoin is already pretty big and has a large market capitalization. What's more, on the chart, you can see the major parallel channel on the LOG scale that started in 2017, and I don't think the bulls want to make some crazy parabolic move above this channel!
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!