Bitcoin: 5-year crypto-winter
It's possible that a major bullish cycle has ended and that we're already experiencing a massive crypto-winter.
Interest rates are rising and could reach 15-20% in the coming years. The current rate is 4%. Of course, this is very bad for the stock market and crypto.
The strategy "buy and hold" no longer works; it's probably the worst performing strategy. This strategy is pretty easy; you don't need to do anything but hold and pick the right coins. But yeah, I agree, it can be hard to pick the right coins.
I think the only way to make money in crypto is to learn daytrading or swing trading on the futures market. It's not an easy task for a retail trader.
Bitcoin has failed to hold the most important supports, namely the previous all-time high from 2017 and the blue trendline, which is a disaster.
Let me know in the comment section what you think about crypto-winter and whether it is possible or not. If not, why not?
All altcoins look terrible from a technical perspective; I don't see anything bullish. We can, of course, have a relief rally, but it will be just a dead cat bounce.
Elliott Wave Theory suggests this uptrend is over. We have finished an impulse wave (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5), and now we are looking for a bearish retracement. The impulse wave lasted for 12 years, which is pretty nice. The bear market can last until 2027; I do not see any problem.
It will be a massive capitulation of miners; the mining difficulty may adjust, so there will be less mining power required. It's possible; bitcoin can go down to $3,000. At least the price of graphics cards will go down.
Crypto-winter is a real thing, and this is one possible scenario of how it can look. The next scenario is that we will oscillate between 3K and 69K for the next 6 years. It can be hardcore, but it could happen because bitcoin is a very volatile asset.
FTX was liquidated, and much more can come. You can't even imagine how bad it can be with the liquidation of other exchanges and huge players such as MicroStrategy. I hope it will not happen and we will go up, but we need to consider all probabilities.
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A-flat
Repeating Expanded Flats?Just a quick post here. I included this as a screenshot in another published chart shown below, but wanted to share this idea by itself.
NOTE -Expanded flat C wave typically stops either at the 1.618 or the 1.236:
- Logarithmic chart has corrected down to the 1.618 exactly.
- Linear chart shows us stopping near the center point between the 1.618 and 1.236, near the 1.427.
Original post:
Another note - I'm super bullish on DXY, which should be bearish for crypto and stock markets. For the above move to occur, I'd expect us to see DXY re-test the area around 103.
Bitcoin - All of the reasons why the bottom is near (in)
This analysis will show you why the bottom of Bitcoin could be very close. This is a set of indicators that tell their own story, so let's take a look at them.
Currently, Bitcoin is the most hated asset in the world. Everything is rising, including gold, silver, stocks, the EUR/USD, indices, and even meta Facebook, the most bearish stock. Bitcoin is the weakest asset. You can be a contrarian and buy it.
But let's take a look at the technical analysis. As you can see, we have a trendline from the all-time high of 69,000 USD to the current price. The bulls already broke the trendline, but the bear was stronger, and the price was pushed down. The trendline is currently being retested, which is a common thing in trading. There is a pretty huge chance that every trendline will be tested again. Usually, you want to buy the retest. So we have a first buy signal here.
Large institutions and hedge funds regard 200 moving averages as strong support or resistance. There are two types of possible curves for a moving average. The curve can be descending or ascending. In this case, the curve is ascending, which is an indication of an uptrend. The uptrend is still valid, and this is a bullish sign. But the price is below the 200 MA, which is bearish on the other side.
Then there's the Elliott Wave. This downtrend could have moved in a complex corrective structure known as a double zigzag (WXYXZ). This structure must contain 3 zigzags for a total of 6 impulses. It is really possible that it is actually a double zigzag corrective pattern, which is bullish.
If we take a look at the volume indicator, we have historically had the highest volume on the Binance exchange. This is an indication of a massive exchange of Bitcoin. People are selling, but for every transaction, there has to be a buyer. Extremely high volume is an indication of capitulation and often indicates a trend reversal. During a stop-loss hunt, we typically see a huge volume spike and the price move in the opposite direction because the whales simply took the necessary liquidity.So massive volume spike can be a bullish sign. It is a special event.
The next indicator is the RSI. There is a huge bullish divergence that cannot be ignored. Bullish divergence is a very powerful indication that the bears are losing steam. It happens when the price makes a new lower low while the indicator makes a higher low. This is very bullish.
MACD: The histogram measures the difference between the two moving averages of the MACD indicator. The histogram is ticking to the upside and is above the 0 level. If the histogram reaches above the 0 level, then the two moving averages cross each other. Recently, we have had a bullish cross, which is a bullish signal. This bullish signal is still valid until the histogram falls below 0 again.
FTX capitulation: A major player in the cryptocurrency industry has been wiped out. Capitulation is a sign of a trend reversal. When everyone is selling, it's time to buy. It looks like a lot of retail investors just sold their Bitcoin holdings. Capitulation is one of the classic phases of the market cycle.
CPI data was very positive, and inflation is going down. As per my research in one of my previous analyses, I expect inflation to drop to 0% in the next few years. If you follow me on TradingView, then you know why it can happen based on technical analysis. But if you don't, no worries! You can check out the 0% inflation analysis in the related section down below!
Gold is rising pretty significantly along with the DJI stock market index, which is also very good for Bitcoin.
DXY dollar index is falling; the dollar is currently losing strength, but of course, it can be only temporarily.
Believe it or not, but Bitcoin can rise 50% in a single week, and it can happen so fast. One tweet from CZ and the job is done.
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All my predictions are wrong?I received numerous comments claiming that all of my predictions were wrong or that I was paid by the mafia, and so on. Let's take a look at the previous analyses that I predicted. My predictions are sometimes wrong and sometimes right; that's trading. I warned you a lot about specific coins or predicted the TWT pump.
I predicted a 30% crash on Doge coin here, when everyone was buying like crazy:
I told you a 60% crash on SHIBA was coming:
I predicted this huge, massive uptrend on TWT:
I told you not to buy LUNC because it would crash -60% (extremely hard), and it really did:
I predicted a huge crash on Solana:
I predicted a tremendous crash on ADA:
I predicted a big crash on APT. Do not buy this altcoin, I warned you:
I told you not to buy XRP here:
I predicted a massive crash on GMT:
I was right about the XLM dump here:
I predicted this top on the DXY index:
I predicted a huge pump on Bitcoin from the 0.618 FIB:
I predicted the dump on Bitcoin here:
And much more...
Ethereum - Incredible 100% gains, starting right now!
This is going to be massive! I am telling you, everyone will be speechless for this upcoming pump. It's definitely a scenario that no one is expecting.
We have had a huge capitulation event with the FTX exchange, which is a CAPITULATION. Did you know that bear markets often end with a huge capitulation of big players in the industry?
Let me repeat it. Capitulation just happened in front of your eyes, so let's buy the DIP! Do not sell into the whale's pocket.
Elliott Wave just turned extremely bullish on Ethereum because an ABC correction has been successfully completed after a massive uptrend from June to August early this year.
100% gains by the end of the year are absolutely possible. The 2500-2750 level is a very strong resistance, so expect a rejection from this zone.
As you can see, the price dipped into the POC level (1077 USDT) of the previous structure precisely.
It's the best time to buy because everyone is panicking and selling. I am bullish!
Let me know in the comment section if you think we are going to 500 USDT on ETH!
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Ethereum - Macro outlook | -62% next month!
After the merge, the price of ETH is rapidly going down. It's basically a free fall right now. It was clearly a sell-the-news event.
I am very bearish until we break the major trendline that you can see on the chart. There is absolutely no reason to buy ETH at this moment.
On the daily chart, we can spot a descending parallel channel that is very well respected with all trendlines inside. These trendlines can be useful for short-term trades. I believe there is a possibility of touching the downward trendline in the future.
The market never goes in a straight line; we always have waves during the trend and that's why Elliott Waves are the best indicator to understand where we currently are in the market structure.
According to my Elliott Wave analysis, we are in the final 5h wave of this particular market structure, which can be deadly indeed. But if I am right and we will go down, then do not expect ETH to go to new all-time highs soon.
So prepare your shorts, because that's the only way you can profit in this bearish market. Maybe the ETHBTC pair is also starting a new macro downtrend, so basically ETH will fall off the cliff.
The situation for ETH is horrendous. It's really better to switch to BNB if you really want to hold some coins. Or just stay in USDT and buy after the crash.
I do not expect any tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find the most bearish altcoins in the related section down below. Serum (SRM) looks juicy for shorting on the futures market.
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✅Bitcoin - The bottom is in!
The temporary bottom on Bitcoin is in! Now we are looking for a bullish retracement. I think we will go lower, to 3K-10K, in the next few years, but not now!
On the chart, you can see the strongest resistance on the way up. It's hard to say which one will be the reversal point.
Do you think this Bitcoin crash was natural or was it caused by some strong entity? Let me know what you think in the comment section. I am happy to read your comments!
I think the most probable scenario for Bitcoin is to reach the blue trendline, or 0.618 FIB, at this moment.
The crypto market is a joke, and all investors are getting rekt pretty much all the time, and it's going to be even worse. It's not easy to choose the right coins; only about 5% of them are powerful.
The only reliable investment is BNB, let's be honest! At least it's holding its value and going up a little bit.
This week was extreme for Crypto, pretty much very sad, but it is how it is, and we need to adapt!
The upcoming uptrend will be a countertrend. That means it should be very fast, and we can finally experience a massive green dildo.
DXY is crashing and EURUSD/GOLD is pumping, which is also a good sign for this weak crypto market. In my opinion, a relief rally is very likely right now!
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On the 1h chart, we can spot a strong impulse wave, which is a sign of strength!
✅Bitcoin - Secret pattern no one is talking about!
Not 13,000 USDT, not 12,000 USDT, but I think 10,000 USDT or 9,500 USDT can be the bottom for Bitcoin, and this is a very optimistic scenario!
As you can see, the bears yesterday successfully broke the key market structure that had held for almost 6 months.
Bitcoin is now in serious trouble, and 3,000 USDT is now at play, believe it or not. A 5-year or 10-year bear market (crypto winter) is also possible.
Maybe the 17k that was hit yesterday was a temporary bottom; it's possible, but I don't think so. The temporary bottom will be around 14k, when everyone will be buying, and we will have a massive false uptrend.
The chart is printing a falling wedge, but this wedge is incomplete, and we need much more time to spend on this pattern.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, an impulse wave was printed yesterday, which is a disaster, that's for sure.
A support of 10,000 USDT is very strong. I expect a significant reaction here because it is the 0.618 FIB of the previous impulse wave + the previous head and shoulders neckline.
A lot of big players will get liquidated during an upcoming crash, like LUNA, FTT, and so on.
The only good investment is BNB, let's be honest! At least it's holding its value.
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Bitcoin - The strongest support right now! 0.618 FIB
Today I woke up and saw a massive red dildo and I have to make an update and give you an idea, so keep reading!
As you can see on the chart, the price went down pretty significantly, but is it really a problem? I don't think so.
I detected an impulse wave that was completed a few days ago, and we are retracing this wave. There is nothing wrong with that. Currently we are at the 0.618 FIB retracement, which is a classic correction for an impulse wave (1).
The 0.618 FIB is a very healthy correction and usually the majority is selling while the smart money is buying.
If you think Bitcoin is going to 13k, let me know in the comment section.
Counter-trends are usually very steep, which can be seen on this chart.
Bitcoin is very weak compared to altcoins, very weak. This is an indication of an alt season to me.
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Litecoin - 2000% profit! Last chance to buy low.
The bottom is in for Litecoin, and you have the last chance to buy cheap Litecoin these days!
20x is a reasonable target to take profits because you want to be greedy. It's been almost 5 years of sideways price action.
If you like Gandalf or Litecoin, then hit the like button right now!
As you can see on the chart, there is a running flat pattern, which is an Elliott Wave corrective pattern that may occur after a strong impulse wave. This pattern has been completed after almost 5 years.
If you didn't know that, Litecoin was the first altcoin, which can be mentioned in the Guinness World Records book. This is pretty impressive, isn't it?
Let me know in the comment section if you want to buy Litecoin or if you already hold litecoin. I look forward to your comments!
If we take a look at the MACD indicator, we can spot a bullish histogram on the weekly chart, and we can also see 3 peaks, which indicates a diagonal wave.
Litecoin experienced a massive bull run in 2015–2017. Another bull run is, of course, very likely in my opinion, and it can be very soon.
Litecoin was released via an open-source client on GitHub on Oct. 7, 2011.
The cryptocurrency was created based on the Bitcoin (BTC) protocol, but it differs in terms of the hashing algorithm used, hard cap, block transaction times and a few other factors.
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Bitcoin - Next week will be extremely bullish!
It looks like next week will be extremely bullish for Bitcon and also for the altcoins!
Price is currently moving in the ascending parallel channel, so the bulls have strong momentum.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the first impulse wave has been completed, and I expect another 2 impulse waves to the upside.
23 000 USD next week is definitely possible!
There are no gaps that need to be filled on this chart, which looks safe.
The chart is printing a bullish flag, so wait for a breakout for confirmation!
I wish you massive profits!
I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below.
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🐶DOGE - 30% crash is imminent!
30% crash is definitely very possible on DOGE, so be prepared for it!
After a 189% pump on DOGE, do not be surprised at all if we the bears step in. What goes up fast also goes down even faster.
An impulse wave was detected from the peak, which is not a great sign. There is an increased probability of another impulse wave to the downside.
Overall, I think this huge pump on DOGE is done, and I expect a retracement to shake out late longs.
Let me know in the comments section what you think about DOGE. Are you bullish or bearish? I look forward to your comments!
The latest news on DOGE is that Twitter will not include any cryptocurrency at this moment in their business plan.
I believe DOGE will go up, but not now; it's just too fast.
I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below.
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Curve CRV - 2000% profit! (lifetime opportunity)
This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy CRV at this very low price because this coin can explode anytime soon!
2000% profit is real, no problem at all. You can buy this coin on the spot market or you can open a long position on the futures market.
CRV is currently ranked #78 on coinmarketcap, so there is a lot of room to go up. The market cap is relatively low.
Curve is a decentralized exchange for stablecoins that uses an automated market maker (AMM) to manage liquidity.
This setup is amazing from the Elliott Wave perspective because you can catch the third wave of the third wave, which is a dream setup!
The main trendline is breaking out, and wave 2 has been completed. It looks very promising; do not miss this opportunity.
I don't know what about you, but I am buying this coin! You can buy it with a small amount of your funds, if you want to allocate your capital somewhere else.
All-time high resistance is of course a strong resistance, so I recommend taking profits below this major level to make sure you will get filled.
Look at my ideas about crypto's total market cap, Bitcoin, and LDO in the related section down below.
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GOLD is no longer good
We are living in the digital age, and we require digital money like Bitcoin. Shiny metal is beautiful, of course, but the internet is currently up and running.
I remember the peak on gold in 2020, when the coin stores were full of people and there were big queues in front of the stores full of retail investors.
It's not looking good for gold at all; another 17% drop is possible as per my technical analysis.
According to my Elliott Wave analysis, if we want to stay bullish on this wave count, then the bulls need to defend the 1350 USD level. We are currently in the C wave of the corrective structure.
1350 USD is a strong support because: the start of the gap from 2019 + breakout level from 2019 + Wave 1 support from 2016 + Trendline from 2015 + 200 monthly MA!
200 daily/weekly/monthly MA is considered a very powerful support by huge institutions and hedge funds.
This is a great opportunity for a swing trade in the future!
Look at my ideas about Bitcoin and crypto's total market cap in the related section down below.
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Does Gold doing wave C? part 2According to the previous idea, After the price reached 138.2% of a, The price makes a reversal pattern on TF4H (plus MACD doing bullish divergence in TF1H), So I decide to enter the 1st Buy position. (For now moving SL in front of EP, Risk = 0), To enter the 2nd position, Waiting for the price action around the end of wave b (Continue pattern, plus bullish divergence in a smaller time frame like 15m to 1H or wait for a breakout), About the bigger time frame If price going as analyzed, The target will be around 1771$ and should be reach around 15 to 22 November.
OANDA:XAUUSD
✅Crypto - 2014 trendline is holding, open your eyes!
This is technical analysis; I don't care about interest rates or fundamentals! Leave this analysis if you care about wars, covid, inflation, interest rates, and so on.
95% of people will never buy at the bottom and never sell at the top.
These people will tell you we will go to 13k. When we reach 13k they will tell you we will go to 10k. When we reach 10k they will tell you we will go to 6k. When we reach 6k they will tell you we will go to 3k. When we reach 3k they will tell you they will buy at 1k and so on. These people will never buy during the bear market; they will buy at the top instead!
As you can see, the chart is extremely bullish. If you don't see it, then you are probably shorting support and longing resistance all the time.
This is really not the best time to be bearish. If we drop below the main specific support, then I will quickly switch my overview on the market. There's nothing wrong with that.
I am not a permabull or permabear. You know me well; today I can be bullish, tomorrow I will be bearish, and in two days I will be extremely bullish again.
It doesn't matter if I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to 13k. I can be right only 50% of the time with RR 1:2 to be profitable. I take swing trades with RR 1:20.
I think 2023 will be a very bullish year for the crypto market, but you need to hold good coins. Forget about ADA, SOL, XRP, DOT......These coins will pump, but not next year.
If you are bearish, tell me why in the comment section down below!
Which coin do you want me to analyze? Let me know in the comment section!
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✅LDO - This altcoin is ready to fly!
Everyone is waiting for trade setups like this! LDO is a very promising altcoin and I will tell you why in this analysis.
As you can see, the price is moving in an ascending parallel channel. This channel currently has only 3 touches, so it's brand new.
inside the parallel channel, there is a bullish flag that is currently breaking out! It's definitely a great time to buy right now!
The uptrend started with a strong impulse wave, which is a great indication of strength. Wave 2 has been completed successfully as an ABC ZigZag and we have already started a third wave to the upside!
The profit target is at 1:1 FIB extension LOG / 2.618 FIB LINEAR or the top of the parallel channel on the LOG scale.
Lido is a liquid staking solution for Ethereum. Lido lets users stake their ETH with no minimum deposits or maintaining of infrastructure - whilst participating in on-chain activities, e.g. lending, to compound returns.
If you bought this altcoin or if you want to buy this altcoin, then comment on this idea!
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Expanded Flat Correction Soon or Longer Accum Phase FirstThere have been two bull runs so far for HBAR, each forming higher levels of support above its previous lows. It appears to be consolidating above the area of the first run; similar to how it consolidated above its original lows before the 2nd run. Trend-based fib extension also has the chart consolidating above the 1.618 fib of what could be an expanded flat correction, which I've posted about previously (linked below under related ideas).
This chart shows two theories about that:
1.) a bull run soon from a typical expanded flat correction - everything appears lined up for that, and it has broken its 3-day downtrend, but is still missing the volume spike needed for that run
2.) without that volume spike soon, there may be a 3rd and longer accumulation phase that drags out to some date prior to the 2024 btc halving
Note that the last two runs also had long and longer accum phases as well. Either is possible, and there still hasn't been a strong test of support since initially getting here, which could also be a possible trigger for the spike that is needed.
✅Bitcoin - You must see this!
Bitcoin is the beast! Did you see that green dildo on DOGE? This is what is going to happen with Bitcoin, so hit the like/boost button if you want this scenario right now!
Doge is a great indicator that the bottom of Bitcoin is in and extremely bullish November starts in just 2 days.
If we maintain this parallel channel, Bitcoin could reach $23,000 USDT next week. No problem at all.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we have plenty of room to go to the upside because the impulsive structure is probably incomplete.
If you are bearish, comment on this idea to share your opinion!
The stock market can continue to drop while Bitcoin can go up. I don't see any issue with that. But the bottom of the stock market could be in as well.
Bitcoin may never fall below 20k again. But the price is still very cheap and very good for an investment with a great risk-to-reward ratio.
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PolkaDot - A huge breakout or a trap?
Please do not buy DOT. There are many, many better coins. This analysis is for you if you want to get out of DOT or if you want to buy DOT.
This altcoin looks really bad. I would not buy it. But, it looks like we will have a relief uptrend.
I think we can definitely reach at least the 0.382 FIB retracement of this downtrend wave. This wave should be completed and we are looking for a bullish correction.
We have a descending parallel channel that has been destroyed by the bulls recently. So the bears should pause for a while.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, there is an impulse wave, which is a great sign of weakness. This is probably not the bottom!
I expect a huge bear market after the retracement, so be careful with this altcoin.
Look at my ideas about APT, ETH, BTC, and inflation in the related section down below.
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❌APT Aptos - Be careful, do not buy this coin!
I see multiple warning signs on this chart. It looks like a lot of traders bought this coin on the spot market and also longed this coin on the futures market to get rekt.
The price action is absolutely bearish on the APT coin. I strongly suggest staying away from this altcoin. You can probably buy it at 1 USDT later!
The bulls failed to do an impulse wave, which is a disaster. Also, we can spot a triangle, which you do not want to see at all if you are a bull.
From the fundamentals perspective, APT is likely a great coin. That's why I recommend buying APT at much lower prices.
This is just a quick update on this coin and my opinion.
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✅Ethereum - No one is talking about this!
It's been 41 days since the merge. If Ethereum was still on PoW, there would be up to 488,000 ETH that miners would be able to dump into the market. Instead, net issuance is only 1,300 ETH since merge and stakers can't sell any of that yet! This is absolutely bullish.
Hit the like button if you didn't know that, because no one is talking about it!
As you can see on the chart, there is an ascending parallel channel, which is really great for a potential profit target or a sell short opportunity. This channel is on the LOG scale, but you can also draw it on the linear scale. Both are valid, unfortunately.
According to my Elliott Wave analysis, a previous extremely strong impulse wave gives us a great chance for a new swing high! Also, the correction has been clearly completed as a double ZigZag.
The price is above the blue trendline and do not be fooled. This trendline is much longer than you can see on the chart, but I am unable to show you on this daily timeframe.
It looks like November will be very bullish for the crypto market, which is really great, isn't it?
Look at my ideas about Bitcoin and 0% inflation in the related section down below!
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✅Bitcoin - Last chance to buy under 20k!
This is your last chance to buy Bitcoin below 20,000 USDT before it explodes to new all-time highs!
An inverse head and shoulders pattern is currently breaking out! The price is above the neckline, and you could wake up to a massive green dildo on the chart any day now.
If you are pumped, hit the like button right now!
Don't forget that November is the second strongest month for Bitcoin, with an average return of +21%.
The Elliott Wave is currently extremely bullish because we have completed an ABC correction for a previous impulsive wave and now we are preparing for a third impulse wave, which is usually the strongest.
If you are bearish, then comment on this idea!
The next stop is 30,600 USDT, which is a reasonable resistance. It is the head and shoulders measurement target + the previous symmetrical triangle point of control (POC). I expect a temporary downtrend from this level.
Inflation is on the way to 0% in a few years, as per my previous analysis, which you must check out in the related ideas down below!
We can hit a new all-time high next year. It's definitely a possible scenario, so you don't want to miss this upcoming huge move.
If you think this idea is interesting, then you should hit the like/boost button. Thank you!