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BTC Eve and Adam suggest one is forming on ETHBTCI got a scratching in my head again when looking at the ETHBTC chart and it was beginning to resemble the bitcoin chart and a bit more tinkering has resulted in this post. I see myself doing a couple of editions of this basic concept over the next couple of days. The fib levels show that BTCUSD had a more powerful move as BTC was able to reach the 0.786 Fib retracement level and ETHBTC did a good showing of breaking 0.618 before getting rejected. It is a bit to early to guess now, but that could mean that ETHBTC may not reach the full 1.618 fib extension on its upleg if the Eve and Edam pattern develops and we may have to settle of a mere 1.414 extension. Likewise, the very bullish Eve and Adam had a higher low on the Adam. No guarantee that the Adam low will be lower or higher than the eve on ETHBTC at this point. Quick reminder on Divergences Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden Divergence (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator The BTCUSD high on the main chart looks a bit deceptive on the log scale, in part because that 90% move doesn't look that impressive. Below it makes things a bit clearer were I focus more on the Eves and not a wider picture. BTCUSD has a technical double top from the weekly candle bodies from the beginning of 2018 to the middle of 2019 and the divergence tore the uptrend to pieces. I also was torn to pieces looking for a short entry too soon and not just being patient and buying the dip. By the time the dip fell to my level I was so pissed off at myself I didn't buy crypto, I had been too burned out on it. ETHBTC is off to the left and the hidden bearish divergence is much clearer. There can be some considerable chop over the next six to nine months as everything comes to order. I called the top on BTC when everyone else was looking for upside continuation and I still remain steadfast on my downside targets on BTCUSD reaching around 14-16k until such time as the 20 week SMA is no longer acting as resistance. So I am operating under the assumption that ETH will fall faster than BTC and perhaps BTC will recover quicker as well and then ETH will have a huge run, appreciating 10x against BTC from its current position. I also called the local top in 2019, but as I mentioned, shorted to soon, repeatedly, and it burned me. I developed my stop and short strategies a bit since then so I may give it another college try in the future. My linked idea from August 2019 is one of my most frustrating ones because, despite the chop it reached my long term target and I tore my account to pieces. I suspect with patience ETHBTC will reach the box below around 0.019 to 0.023. My recent idea on BTC has some target setting for BTC any my target setting for eth is along the same lines (Below the monthly Keltner channel).
Short
by This_Guhy
Bitcoin: Buying the dip sub $16,000Predictions (TLDR the analysis): The 400d EMA will eventually fail as support The 20 Month SMA will be tested and fail as support The Monthly Keltner Channel will act as support (with wicking very probable) at about 15k 3-5 year target is 160k with chance of over-performance Main Chart Bitcoin continues to chop sideways and cause a lot of people a lot of pain through all the uncertainty and difficulty in finding a good trade entry. Big picture I still think BTC is entering a bear market. We may bounce up or down and we could have a head and shoulders here or we could have a double top over there but ultimately the easiest trade understand but perhaps the hardest to do is to buy the bottom of the monthly Keltner channel. The chart covers almost a decade of price action BTC and the pattern so far is very clear, price action runs up parabolically out of the Keltner channel and when it slips the 400 day EMA as support price action proceeds until it the Keltner Channel can act as support. There has been a lot of hope that this will resemble 2013 and there will be a quick consolidation and then a quick pump to the upside and that would mean that the price action should continue to find support here on the 400D EMA. I don't see that happening based on the volatility stop. I will link an idea that predicted the bear market based on the weekly VSTOP and SMA analysis but below we will be addressing the monthly. Volatility Stop Analysis There is a very low probability of the 400 maintaining support as the monthly VSTOP and MTF VSTOPx3 are primed bearish. The chart below shows we have broken flipped the monthly VSTOP last period and we are about to flip the MTFx3 after confirming a close below $46.6. The natural conclusion based on history is that the 20 month SMA will fail as support and we test the bottom of the monthly Keltner. Just a reminder that the VSTOP and Keltner are based on the Average true range, a very useful base calculation that I recommend traders at least experiment with. Below is the BLX chart with the 15 day KC and we first focus on 2011. The data here was to young to have a monthly chart and so that is why we are using a lower timeframe. Once again the KC is found as support on the Keltner channel on the highest timeframe that makes sense, the half month chart. We are also working on closing our third candle body within this 15 day KC and this price action resembles the tops at 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2019. It does not look similar to the top of 2013. Elliot Wave Analysis One of the main sticking points for some people is they people don't think that BTC can trade within its previous all time high. That opinion should be to be disregarded because it is is not based on any technical fundamentals whatsoever. The most clear reason why not is in a Elliot wave theory a 12345 wave by default the corrective ABC wave goes within wave 4. Below is a Elliot wave count off of the BLX data that looks heck'n valid. The targets, probably a bout 3-5 years off, is pretty wild as well and will be shown in the fibs section below. Just think 100x is back on the table in 3-5 years. Here is a key point, a ABC correction completes wave 1-2 and sets up wave 3, which by definition cannot be the shortest wave and often is the longest (commodities sometimes wave 5 is the longest). Here are a series of if then comments. If I am correct then BTC is competing a wave 5 and will see an ABC correction. Very likely to the bottom of the Keltner channel. IF that happens then are set up for wave 3. Fibs The most natural fibs we could look for are the 1.618 or 2.618 retracement levels from the top to the bottom of the correction which would put a major stall at either one of those levels, and a potential impulse move between those levels. These are the levels I think most wider time frame traders will be looking at for their long shot. The exact placement of the fibs will require some patience for this move to play out so we know where the exact low will be to do the target setting. This is where I approximate the 160k stall. Here is another example of why the 1.618 is a very important fib retracement: the last cycle ATH to the low. There are people who are saying that this top was unexpected or perhaps premature. That could not be further from the case. This was a classic 1.618 extension from high to low. Given the power of this chart you should remember it and consider it may remain very predictive in the future. This last chart is mostly for funsies. It is a fib extension off of the original 1-2 wave and because the way fib levels and waves interrelate somehow it hella call the high here at the 1.272 level. Very curious. We also see the 1 level acted as strong support twice in the 2017-18 bear market. Since this is a longer shot I don't know how to interpret this yet and it is something for me to ponder. We don't know which of these levels may be stiff resistance and which will be support on retracements but his is something to bear in mind. Perhaps the golden pocket will be the next major top in 10 years. Final Thoughts If you find someone considering a bear market of less than 70% you have to realize they have no historical basis for that call. The calls of "this time will be different" so far still apply as an error in thinking until we have a bear market that is less than 70%. My long term call, while technically based, still is on the shallow end of btc bear markets. You can consider a bear market by your own criteria but for me now we are out of the early stages of btc lifespan it will be below the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP on the weekly for transition and below the 20w confirms. It will take a lot to surpass that triple resistance. If you see the Monthly VSTOP and MTF and 20 month SMA confirmed bearish then you best consider that we are bearish and consider a dip buying strategy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
7
Quickpost ETHBTC Bull Trap is inThere is a lot on the log chart so lets look at the target setting on the standard chart. The implications for this are pretty bad, if ETHBTC dips then probably both ETH and BTC will be going down, and ETH faster than BTC. Alts and shitcoins more volatile than ETH will go down even faster than eth. I am personally using this chart as confluence to short an alt I like to work with. The head and ETHBTC neckline is now acting as resistance. Potentially disastrous for the broader crypto market. Stops should be easy to set for anyone with the basics of setting stops (not shown due to quickpost and having to get the kiddos to bed).
Short
by This_Guhy
6
Quickpost:Dash Looks Like a shortThe main chart says a lot so I am going to go into the 12 hour because that shows a lot. Quite simply price action is still very bearish with both the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP situated bearishly and the 20 period SMA acting as resistance. This is the time frame I have my stops set on and my entry was at $207, My take profit is of course a bit shy of full performance. I am almost but not quite ready to move my stop loss to guarantee a profit. These are very risky times and only the nimble should be trading. This is not the time to learn new skills. If you try and push your limits here with your full account most of y'all will get wrecked, like I got wrecked 3.5-4 years ago. One of the reasons this is a quickpost and I don't need a lot more TA is all the TA I have done recently that points to the begining of a bear market, and I trust my divergences and stop strategy. If I take an L on this it will be a very small one. Here is a quick confirmation on ethbtc, which loosk to be setting up a classic bear trap. Given ETH and BTC .9ish correlation and ETH higher beta it seems we are due for the next leg down marketwide.
KRAKEN:DASHUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Bitcoin one week away from fully confirming full blown bear markWe will be looking at a confluence of three indicators and their close next week for me to formally call the beginning of a bull market that could last over a year. 20 Week SMA. Some people are watching the 21 week EMA and there is little distinction between the two, except the 20W is more important because it is the basis of the weekly bollinger band. If BTC slips the 20w then the bears have a very solid place to look at shorting, and bulls have a place to take profits, and that is the top of the weekly bollinger band or the 20w, depending on what your charting is showing you. DYOR on the last bear market if you wish. Volatility Stop. A great indicator to help you determine the trend and place stops. It can also help you visualize dynamic support and resistance. It is based off of the Average True range, another fantastic indicator that helps spot when an asset is in accumulation. That may be important in a year or so Volatility Stop Multiple Time Frame. I have set this to 3x, so this basically shows the 3 week volatility stop. Combined with default Vstop it helps confirm super-bearish or bullish trends. When the VSTOP is broken the red arrow appears and we wait for confirmation. That is where we are now after the weekly close. If we close with the price action below the MFT of 47,948.22, the MTF flips bearish and the magenta line begins. After the two impulses with the arrows price action closes below the 20 week SMA and has double flipped the MTF VSTOP and the VStop. The red X shows I don't consider the price action as fitting the pattern because in one weekly candle the price ranged over 82% and we clearly have not seen that scenario occur since then. Watchlist The 20 week value as I write this is $49k and the MTF VSTOP is $47.9k. If price closes between that narrow range (unlikely) then there would have been a while lot of volatiliy in the market. If it ends above the 20w SMA some how then we need to tunnel down and reassess. The most likely scenario right now? Price action closes below the 20w and the MFT VSTOP and the bear market is confirmed by some very powerful indicators. As always, please see the linked ideas for some larger context. My personal plan is to look to short what I want to short up until BTC is in the blue area, which seems very similar to me as the last run up to previous bull market ATH to bear market. I will want to see some resistance and support to play as well as the NVT in the green on the daily. That will be a great chance to make or lose some money. I don't have any buy orders on the books just yet. For an investment long if this does flip fully bearish you would be looking for BTC to be down at least 70-80% from ATH and with the NVT in the green on the weekly and absent any bearish structure, like a massive descending triangle like we saw in 2018.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
4
NVT by aamonkey (and my charting) suggest bull trap lower downI have been looking for the bull trap bounce for a while now and I have been looking to use aamonkey's version of the NVT as a way of helping steady my hands and clarify my thinking. The blue measured move show historical losses of highs to the top of the orange box and that orange box has been a serious area of consolidation in the past before the final low is reached. Very clearly we have some distance to transverse if we reach historic targets based on this pattern. The orange box shows where a quick area of consolidation has lead to a bounce on BTC before. The yellow box is where the bull trap has topped based on historic behavior before. Manipulate the chart, squint your eyes, it is all there. Here is our daily chart all kindz of zoomed in. This lets us look more closely at the all time highs and it lets us evaluate the price action that I suggest will act as support. We can also see that the NVT has not flashed green yet on the daily. Key point to remember is it flashing green on the daily is not a dummy buy signal. It just means that the network, roughly is undervalued for the number of transactions it is processing. It is just telling us that this is where long term investors could be happy to begin the long accumulation process. I intend to update this as needed as time goes on. It is going to be very stressful and fortunes will be made and lost on the next couple of days to weeks and all moves during this time are higher risk than normal, and that normal is already very high risk for crypto. The linked charts will show my recent streak of good luck with charting that could break at any time as well as some other attempts of forecasting future moves. This dump could be worse than others, so we don't know how this is going to go.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9
Quickpost: ETHBTC Basic Charting No-Jutsu The main chart basically spells out what could happen if we confirm this bear market. My linked idea will show what I am looking for on BTCUSD to confirm a bear market when the week ends. As a head up if you don't want to read the linked idea... I detailed at the time of writing, a very high chance of confirming a bear market. After price action puked over the last couple of days it seems more and more likey we are going to confirm the bear market. This post doesn't have any short entries, and it doesn't guarantee any price targets. It just shows a couple of areas of interest and price targets based off long term fundamental TA. Lots of tradingviewer and youtubers that normally do good long term analysis have seemed to lost their heads, which makes sense because these are heady times. My biggest regrets at trading and investing are seeing long trends and having my weak hands drop the fantastic entries I had with some FUD, or chancing something I thought would be better but I didn't have the same chart clarity, so I then dropped that too early. Best believe I am not forgetting this set up. I have also linked a current long term set up I am watching on BTC, and one that I saw on BTCUSD a while back and dropped too soon.
Short
by This_Guhy
2
BTCUSD: High Chance to revisits the 200 week SMA before new ATH.BTCUSD just had a new week and I wanted to get the data on the close on both the On Balance Volume and combine it with the MACD. I will link just a couple of ideas to supplement this idea so it isn't to repetitive. Each idea covers a different set of indicators and guess what? All bearish. A review of my post history will show I have not vacilated between bearish and bullish over this time last month. Even when I called for a uptrend I called it a bull trap and that is exactly what it was. I have been watching the On Balance Volume with EMAS for a couple of weeks now. For some background information, it can be a bit hard to to OBV analysis on crypto because often the supply is constantly increasing and in other cases, supply will be burned. This can confound peak to peak or trough to trough analysis looking for divergences and is one reason why I missed a fair bit of this uptrend. But what doesn't really change is the OBV EMA crosses. If the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs cross that means there has been some change in selling or buying pressure. Not shown is the third EMA which I usually program to 100. There are also times I use a 25-50-75 and that can signal a major change in trend is coming. It is not a signal for people that want to snipe or scalp, but when the 25 OBV EMA crosses the 50 a big move will be incoming, especially on a timeframe like the weekly. You just have to wait for the price action to coil up and then release its tension. I wish I learned this earlier. I shall not explain the MACD because it is a more understood indicator. And I don't think it means too much that the OBV EMAs and MACD cross didn't happen exactly on the same candle. Now to discuss the 200 week... Not because it is so esoteric but because of the implications. The 200w has marked the bottom of ever bear market we have the available data for on the BLX chart. This has an implication that most don't want to consider no matter how technical the move is: BTCUSD will have to retest its previous All Time High. Even worse to consider is the 200w fails as support, but that is something to consider in due time. s3.tradingview.com The all time high of 2013 was retested but the high of 2014 was not. If the high of 2017 is retested we may have a scenario where every other ATH of bitcoin needs to be retested, or some other pattern as may develop. This does not inform any single trade between here and the 200w. There should be a lot of relief rallies or suckers rallies or bull traps between were and there. But historically it seems clear that after a powerful impulse on the weekly timeframe a bearish MACD cross and a cross of the 10 and 20 OBV signals a bear market. There is a chance that somehow and some way even though the MACD signals a major change in momentum that the bulls will somehow clutch and the buying will pick up. But I don't see a reason that would happen. If that happens I put this bearish sentiment on hold.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9
BTCUSD: Aiming in by using Data On Previous EngagementsIntroduction Bitcoin continues to take a beating and I am producing different styles of charts to reach different styles of investors and traders, hoping to show them something in a system they recognize. I have done divergence on indicators, I have use bollinger bands, I have done volume analysis, everything I can to help. This is to help out the moving averages traders. See my linked ideas if you want some more confirmation. This takes a wide shot of the 100, 200, and 400 daily EMAS because they have historically been shown to be very useful in these situations. And because I never like to pull a trigger on patterns or Moving averages alone (I usually like divergences to back up my charting) I have an indicator that has proved useful to show where BTC is a value buy. The NVT is network value divided by transactions and due to the color bands provided by aamonkey we can see generally where NTV is expensive and where it is cheap. Current Scenario As it stands price action is in a triangle and hanging onto the 100 EMA and very well maybe consolidating for its next leg down. The charting does permit some more sideways action but with the totality of the macro environment and the negativity in the news I think sentiment is going to be enough that hands get weak and look to buy a dip. We have a lot of chances to swing trade BTC over the next couple of months, and that means a lot of chances to get reck'd if you forget the bigger picture. And part of that bigger picture is to not forget the orange and purple trendlines. In 2018 the purple trendline acted as a slide while price action took months to form a falling wedge and if you thought early on that previous resistance was now support your gains would have slid down along with price for months until you saw the wedge form.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
2
I suspect SPX will end up like BTCAnd I just need some indicator confirmation before pulling the trigger on some puts. I don't want to crow too loudly, but lots of crypto analysts on Tradingview and/or YouTube have been posting temperamental TA when they wake up, see a candle, and feel compelled to post an update to their TA. Whipped around all over the place as BTC zig and zagged. Many did not zoom out and have forgotten how to look for bull traps. And a lot of these guys are good, I have seem then call bull traps before. Some of them even saw the bearishness but hand waved it away because "we are in a bull market" and a couple of them got liquidated due to stops being too loose. And I stood on my BTC short call, like I am standing on the over-all bearishness of the S&P and Nasdaq and everything else for the next while. BTC on the right had a perfectly predictable bull trap due to wedge support support flipping as resistance and hidden bearish divergence on the histogram, and all the other stuff I went into on my linked ideas Likewise a bull trap on SPXUSD can be very predictable. I have SPXUSD up because it has more price action than SPX or SPY. There are some dissimilarities based on percent gains and slope of the resistance and somewhat concerning, it doesn't look as "wedge-ie" as BTCUSD due to the whitespace. What is similar: Rising wedge broke down Very similar resistance zone (in blue) I will be watching for price action to go to the blue resistance zone and the wedge. I expect price action to thrash around there for a while and then dump. The most ideal thing I could see is there to be hidden bearish divergence from the peak that is about to form to the SPX all time high, and then! classic bearish divergence within the peak, such as a second retest of the wedge after a small dip. The media will be near schizophrenic trying to come up with news stories and will be contradicting themselves all over the place. But I am not going to be caught flat footed by some tweet by Elon or some bungling statement from the "President." sidenote I see a potential descending triangle on BTCUSD... It isn't the main point of the post but still, it means that BTC can bounce and meander around resistance for a couple of weeks even, alts can resume going crazy, and then the rug gets proper pulled. I did a quick skim of some of the BTCUSD ideas and could not see anyone eyeballing the same potential pattern, so I thought I would throw it out there.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
1
NDX/SPY and NDX/DJI looks like the NASDAQ is popping a bubbleIntroduction For my adult life the advice has been to buy just by ETFs. And for the last decade or so the advise has also to been buy the NASDAQ ETF because it over-performs the other indices. It seems that advice is on the precipice of ending due to some long term indicators on the verge of flipping their switches. The MFV VSTOP is set to 3x and right now price action has gone below the stop. IF we confirm below the arrow stays in place and right next to it we get that black dot which means the move is confirmed. Not shown to keep the main chart clean is the VSTOP on the current time frame which has already flipped bearish. Price action is also leaning heavily on the 20 month SMA which, due to its use in a variety of other indicators is rather important. The Chart also declares that we have a lot of divergence on some popular indicators indicators I could almost exactly use the same write up for NDX/DJI but this chart has the RSI with a double top instead of clear bearish divergence. A look at NDX, SPY and DJI to try and guestimate what this dump could look like is very bearish indeed. The dotcom bubble burst was a historical economic event and it seems its ghost has come to haunt us. SPY and DJI will be less affected by this downtrend but will still take significant beatings over the next coupe of years. The fact that they don't go down as much means they are less likely to get a playable/dupe-able bull trap Here is a replay of the dotcom pop on NDX with my general thoughts. It is on the three day with the daily BB in orange and the weekly in blue. There will be a lot of technical bounces on the way down and a put/short strategy seems very advisable. My Conclusions I am not going to go on at length about the dollar or inflation in consumer staples or the wallstreetbets effect. It looks pretty bad out there when you compare the most bullish US index to its brothers and that is generally bearish for the broader market. I am not a financial advisor and I don't have a CMT... purely self taught. But I am going to look to short in one way or another these bearish continuation patterns and I might even take some opportunistic logs when the price action first hits the weekly bollinger band. There is going to be a lot of pain over the next couple of years but there is nothing moral about being bad with money, or losing money. Here is TSLA based off of my linked idea. Plenty of chances to swing trade in this dumpster fire of an equity if I can get some indicators to back up the TA. The main chart suggest we will get a multi-month bull trap. The chart where I replayed the NDX bubble burst also suggest a multi-month bull trap. Even though the macro situation is bearish you still have to be nibble enough to deal with the rallies however you decide. My other linked idea is how I potentially see BTC affected by the everything bubble
TVC:NDQShort
by This_Guhy
12
NASDAQ Futures appear to be in Wycoffian DistributionVery technical situation is presenting itself on the Nasdaq futures. It is very technical because of how inter-connected the different phases are and the patience required to see and play it. Ideally the overall structure will get you over-performance compared to the constituent structures. The Components Preliminary Supply and Automatic Reaction : A impulsive uptrend sees its first round of selling off. This selling pressure leads to an automatics reaction where momentum buyers continue the rally. Buying Climax Most of the momentum players exit their trade. There is probably same underlying structure that they see and they all take profit off of that structure. In our chart I outlined a ascending triangle that probably had a lot of trader take their profits. Price action returned to the triangle resistance to test it as support fueled by support and resistance traders. Secondary Tests Swing traders beat the price around for a couple of days in a rage bound manner. The Ice Set by the area between the preliminary supply and automatic reaction (or in other cases, a particularly strong sign of weakness0 the ice is a zone that at first acts as support but when it gets cracked price action drowns if it cannot get above it in a decisive manner. Last Point of Supply A very weak uptrend that ends confidence in further upside to most savvy investors and traders. Markdown (not shown) price falls impulsively. On QQQ Proper we see that price action has been gapping around a bit leading to jerky price movement. As a general convention when price moves in such a rapid manner it has a habit of retracing until all the gaps get filled. The short squeeze and pump today helped fill the gap from a few days ago and is one more reason as to why we could trade lower. Taking time to fill the gaps below also gets us closer to having the double top become a reality. But of course one always needs price and volume action to confirm. You can thing you see a double top when it turns into an ascending triangle on you when people buy the dip aggressively. The On Balance Volume definitely suggests price is going to break down. Target setting gets a little complicated because distribution would suggest we are going to get a bit more performance than the constituent formations would suggest... Less complicated: The flagpole and wedge will overperform. I feel confident in this idea because the so many of the components of the NASDAQ individually look awful. TSLA has been in an massive correction Apple looks to have fallen out of a wedge and is flipping previous support as resistance Amazon looks rangebound in a way that it could develop into full blown Wykoff distribution. Netflix hit target on a massive triangle and has been spending the last couple of months topping. I could go on and on. Even things that appear bullish like googl/goog look like they are blowing off their tops. Whether you think this is a great reset or great rotation it seems clear the Nasdaq is primed to take a beating. For a generation people have just bought the NASAQ. Now for a couple of years traders may just think "I'll sell the NASDAQ." This reminds me eerily of the dump before COVID 19. Lots of things look very healthy but under the hood in equities a dump was brewing then the news latched on to a problem and the politicians over-reacted and spiked the economy.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by This_Guhy
BTCUSD: Volume, MAs, Ichimoku and BB look GrizzlyTL:DR I threw Everything but the kitchen sink and its all bearish. Analysis A lot is is explained on the main chart. The On Balance volume Situation with the EMAS is particularly telling. Having the 20 period cross the 100 is a key event that suggest a lot of persistent recent selling and that situation means bearish moves are more likely and will be more impulsive when they do occur. This suggest more likely than not the price actin will slip the 100 SMA, and then the 20SMA will cross the 100 bearishly as well. From there a chance at a technical bounce at the 200. Looking at the history we can get some pretty severe wicks through. For those that like the EMA ribbon and are hoping to see it as support the On Balance Volume situation means that we are likely to see the ribbon, which is thin to begin with, fail as support as well. s3.tradingview.com For a bit wider view here is the 3 day chart where I have highlighted a different bearish volume scenario. The 10 period OBV EMA is now acting as resistance. Likewise, price action has gotten narrow enough that we are on the verge of a T-K cross on the cloud. s3.tradingview.com Here is the same 3 day chart with OBV and EMA but with the weekly bollinger band in blue and the monthly in green. This volume situation makes being long outside the monthly bollinger band every risky. In very bullish scenarios the top of the monthly BB can act as support but we can see that the top weekly BB is beginning to round off which is not that bullish. We can also see price action is tightening in a way that predicts further downside. The price action was very expansive as evidenced by how the bottom of the BB falls out the chart and now as price action constricts the BB snugs up. Final thoughts A look at the chart and the history does allow for price action to go higher once the 200D SMA is tested as support. Clearly that is a possibility. But for people tracking inflation wearer experiencing an explosion in the price of food and energy. I am not going to chart you to death, but look up the prices of oil, rice, pork, cattle, etc. All going up. It is going to be hard to hold on to an intangible trustless payment system token when your loved ones need a meal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
4
Bitcoin The Bull Trap is inPretty straight forward follow up of some of my recent bearish calls on BTC. The red arrow shows hidden bearish divergence on the price action in the rising wedge and the MACD Histogram which suggest we are going to get some continuation, or in other words, a lower low. The Purple flagpole target shows a rough area where we should land and I expect some over-performance before we settle on the bollinger band. The 8h MACD is about to cross bearishly and we can see how devastating that was on the last occurrence. Signs of illness are showing Old Man is picking up and it is going to affect all the kiddos. All the youtubers looking at TA on the hourly, 4h or likewise are going to miss the year long trendline which sets up our bear trap. Please see my linked idea on how this break down was high probability and predictable with high probability. The green aro shows the most volatile possible larger bull trap and the thin orange line shows where BTC could go if we have a top that more rounds off than a typical bull trap. I am standing on this call like I stood on a bullish call in January when BTC was damn near free falling and TrVe and the youtubers were predicting we go to 20k again. I was predicting more upside and we got it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
19
S&P has serious problems with nested bearish structuresMy favorite ticker to track the S&P is SPXUSD as it gets you a whole lot more data on the price action than other tickers with the main draw back that you cannot get any volume confirmation. But due to the cleanliness of the price action these nested bearish structures are very apparent. From late April to a few days ago SPXUSD was in a very beautiful orange head and shoulders that broke down to target with slight over performance. Since then price action has returned to the neckline of the orange head and shoulders and the market is deciding if it is going to flip previous support into resistance. Given the orange head and shoulder set up it is my assumption that it is more probable than not that the blue head and shoulders will be validated and perform. The orange neckline will confirm as resistance and price will test the neckline of the blue head and shoulders. Now on to the black lines and target area. This large formation was part of my linked idea about a very disturbing fractal developing in the S&P. These two head and shoulders are tied into a 30 week long rising wedge. My gut tells me this won't end well. Here is a general trend of some price action pukes over the last couple of years using SPY so we have some volume data. Even through we had a significant pull back the green arrows show OBV was still tracking the price, This divergence hits at a worse dump than the Covid dump, but I don't have any hard and fast justification for that suspicion at this point. I suspect soon SPX/SPY/SPXUSD see a move down and the OBV will break the OBV bollinger band. All this predicts futhark price puking. I have some slightly out of the money SPXU calls that expire in a couple of weeks.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
3
Bitcoin: Big Alarm Bells about to be rung (VSTOP, NTV and BB)There is a lot in the chart but we can go bullet by bullet. I am using the three day intra-week setting but will look at other time frames as we dig in. VSTOP - A way of setting stops using the Average True Range, a measure of volatility to help chart trends. I have decided to only show the VSTOP acting as resistance to simply the chart. VVSTOP MTF - A multiple time frame VSTOP set to three times the default setting. In conjunction with the VSTOP it can show dynamic support and resistance, For visibility I have tweaked the charts to have the flag indicating the bullish MTF was breached show high on the chart. A black dot within a bulb occurs when the MTVSTOP is breached and then we close a handle below to confirm the break. Investigation: In 2017 there was a massive run up on BTC and at a high we had the VSTOP present bearishly and in short order the 20 period SMA was breached and the MTF VSTOP was breached and confirmed in short order and a massive bear market ensued. We see we are very close to having all three conditions met currently. We have 16 hours to close the candle and if we have flipped the VSTOP it will be another 3 days to get a black dot in the bulb and we start printing bearish MTF. 1 Week Chart This chart is a bit wonky. The log Growth curves are used to contain the vast majority of price action and the bolded lines show a lot of significance over the years. In part, if the are breached we can expect to transverse from one to the other rather quickly and either consolidate or proceed to the baseline of the upper limit. I altered the MACD to only show the histogram because to show the crosses on the log chart is basically impossible, so we can just focus on the histogram. The blue boxes show where the MACD crossed the signal and therefor the histogram flipped from green and positive and red and negative. But that is not the only condition for a blue box. The NVT had to transition from Red into Yellow signaling lower network value/transactions. Historically those conditions being met are devastating for BTC price. Now this chart is BLX and so it is a day behind. Here is our current chart. The MACD is clearly red and the bearish cross of the MACD and signal is upon us. We have not closed, but there is a breach of the log growth channel of interest. Another look at the weekly chart with the bollinger band in blue and the monthly bollinger band in green. This is simple, if we slip into the monthly bollinger band with a weekly MACD cross we are in a bear market. You can take your shorts at either the baseline of the weekly chart or at the top of the monthly Bollinger band. Here is a similar circumstance in 2013 and 2014. We have the MACD cross and slip into the monthly BB and we have a bear market. Also, the uptrend has been marked by falling volume and RSI going into this MACD cross In summation 3 day VSTOP bearish About to convert the 3d MTF VSTOP to bearish Broke the 3d 20SMA Weekly NVT and MACD combo look like hell Weekly and Monthly Bollinger and MACD combo bands look like hell Volume and is declining with rising price very suggested of the end of an uptrend on the weekly timeframe. Me Personally I am tethering up what I can except what I need to maintain some shorts. I had my some very long calls reach target and was willing to deal with the normal pull backs in crypto but at this point I cannot risk the upcoming volatility if I don't think we can return to these levels in a couple months or maybe even a year. If I am wrong I miss some gains till I see more strength in the charts. Oh well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
2
NDAQ shows perfect Wyckoff Distribution: Begin MarkdownNDAQ is of course highly correlated with NDX, QQQ, and relate tickers so if NDAQ looks bullish it is a sign that TQQQ and SQQQ will move predictably. If NDAQ is bearish that will have likewise opposite effect. NDAQ came screaming out of the March low to set an advance into a buying climax. The initial give back of that buying climax sets up the Automatic Reaction and that helps define our zone of support, also called the ice due to how dangerous it can be when it breaks. The support on the ice here was confirmed with a bounce of the 20 day moving average which lead to a lower high. That in itself is nothing too serious but subsequent to that price actoin slipped the 20 day and hit the ice again as a Sign of Weakness. After the sign of weakness there was a Upward Thrust which didn't have the buying volume to continue. In other words, bulls where exhausted and could not continue the uptrend. In another sense, there was no one else to pump the bulls bags as buyers were unwilling or unable to continue the trend. I like to use the On Balance Volume EMAs to evaluate this uptrend, peak to peak. I have tried using it on larger timeframes and it doesn't work for me, it isn't responsive enough on the monthly timeframes and my entries are too late. But this is a great resolution. We see this uptrend was not supported with enough volume and the indicator shows a lot of classic bearish divergence which predicts a reversal. Also, OBV break of the 100 EMA is extraordinarily bearish circumstance and should not be taken lightly. Also on that chart is my VSTOP system I continue to tinker with. The MTF VSTOP flipping bearish is also... very bearish. After the Upward Thrust the ice breaks. This is bad because if price action doesn't recover it basically drowns and sinks to the bottom. The ice has flipped from support to resistance and when price actin failed before even hitting the 20 day moving average we have a very bearish set of circumstances. The bottom might be hard to find. DJI has set a lower high and SPX is double topping, both with falling volume so this isn't a bullish set of circumstances. (Technically a double top has peaks within 5% but I think SPX double top with a 5.7% difference is close enought to round down). I am going to let this run for quite a while. I entered my SQQQ position a couple days ago and feel confident that I can let this run until I see some bullish divergence on the NQ1! or SPXU MACD on the 12h or I see NDX out of the bottom of the weekly or monthly bollinger band. My linked post below is one of my most painful post. I completely nailed the bottom reversal and then buggered up the trade by not letting my winners run and shorting too soon. That is one reason why I have incorporated the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP into my system to help steady my hands to the upside when the macro situation is so bearish.
NASDAQ:NDAQShort
by This_Guhy
11
Somebody is hammering the close on SPX and price is dumpingLook at the 3 minute chart below because Tradingview doesn't accept posts with a timeframe less than 15 minutes. It is apparent that people have started to sell the close and there is not enough buying activity at the open or over the course of the day to keep the price up. A lot of traders appear to be exiting their positions at the last 3 minutes of the day. The volume SMA is set to the default of 20, so it when our closing volume of the day is 4.5 or more higher than the last 20 periods and the last hour is the busiest of trading it seems that smart money is selling into whatever strength it can find. On the 15 minute chart the volume for the last candle easily reaches 10x the last 20 periods To zoom out even further to a dialy chart we see a bearishly engulfing candle that put price action back to where we were a month ago and the On balance Volume is below both the 10 and 20 EMAs. This occurs with the Multiple Time Frame Volatility Stop has flipped to bearish. this is generally a bad situation for the bulls. I put risk on with SPXU on 9/3 and I intend to hold that till I see SPY out of the monthly bollinger band. If i see the MTF Vstop flip on me first I will re-evaluate.
AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
2
Bubbles: Comparing BTC to Gold, Again. Introduction BTCUSD is being tracked on the BLX chart as it has the longest history and likewise Gold is on the Futures ticker likewise for the history and both are on the weekly time frame. Due to the speed of crypto the cart covers less time overall. The main chart is BLX and the chart below is gold centered on 2008 to 2016. Key Concepts Fundamental charting over all other indicators Support and resistance flipping (either trendlines or horizontal levels) After you have your chart patterns, look at volume for confirmation on all patterns. After Volume, any other indicator you like. Narrative I have learned a lot since I have been trading and charting over the last 3 years to cobble together a system that makes me money consistently and one that I can manage emotionally. And because we live in an age of bubbles I have persevered over bubble charts I have looked to make money off of the popping. I still get out too early on the uptrend, which is fine so long as I don't go short too soon. The charts should have a remarkable similarity. The main difference is we could add some trendlines to the down leg of Gold after the hammer and show how it channeled down and wedged and recovered, but that distracts a bit from the big picture. The big picture twice on each chart the grey filled ovals show where the price action establish and confirmed a long term black trend line. The black outline oval shows where the black trendline is confirmed as resistance The blue descending triangle shows price action is setting a lower high. The Fib extension shows just how low the price action can go based on Gold. it does not mean 100% that we will almost touch the 2.414 fib extension and the high wick off to the left on Bitcoin suggest we will not go that low, so we will be just about to touch the 2.0 fib extension on bitcoin. Finally we have the OBV EMA situation (shown below). The purple arrows show hidden bearish divergence (lower high on price, higher high on the indicator). So we are at resistance at both the triangle and this rising trendline and the volume is divergent. We might be trading at this resistance for a couple of weeks before the downtrend resumes. It is going to take a while for the optimism to fade. Closing thoughts The markets are all interconnected through traders and investors. And when they need liquidity they are going to take it from where ever they can. The incoming Second Great Depression is going to lead to selling off whatever assets people can in order to pay their bills and support their families, and save their businesses. This means selling of things that you may think are immune. I still imagine the locust swarm leading to food shortages around the world and people dumping silver and gold for grain. In the background of all of this is Elliot wave theory, meaning that the uptrend on bitcoin when this is over will be mind boggling. It is also why I think we will stay above 2.0 fib extension on the downtrend. I expect we will see some type of wedge formation and BARR bottom developing over the next couple of years so the price action is currently creating the lead in trend line. I am just a few years away from never having to work again, God willing. Please see the linked post for some of my most accurate calls, some more recent than others.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
6
BTS moon dreams am I delusional? I got crippled by ripple on my last trade and lost some of my life savings. Now Im chasing loses and have shifted my moon dreams to another coin. I am going to put 50% in BTS. No stop loss. I've bought spot and I've also longed it on margin. Red lines are take profit zones. BTC seems be going sideways or correcting after its big move up. Knowing that I closed ripple at 4.1k sats after buying at 5.2k sats even ripple might start to go up because I lose most of my trades. In the same vein maybe BTS will go down now that I've longed it. For this to happen we need BTC to continue its chop sideways or correction and we need banksters and whales to get into alts. Will whales get into alts when every other end of year alts are always ded or correcting? I dont see why this would be any different which is why i might lose money on this trade but such is life as a gambler who got rekt an assortment of meme shitcoins. I doubt I will ever catch a moon before I lose everything. Ill probably end up losing my life savings and cement my destiny as a wagecuck instead of a meme coin trader.
Long
by captrade
9