American Airlines (AAL) - Channel trade AAL through reversalClear as day reversal from AAL's 52-week low. Evident bounce from the low back in June of 2016. $27.05 has historically been a very strong support for AAL. Increased consumer spending and lower volatility in terms of oil has produced a positive story for the undervalued airline company.
Current trade set-up - Short term target of $33.15 (13.5% upside) in 1-2 weeks. Channel trading in a vary narrow range.
Return to max tentatively april of 2020 for AAL. Up to Boeing to deliver at this point. Any additional news of Boeing returning 737 Max to operation will give AAL higher upside.
AAL
AAL - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about the American Airlines and its current landscape.
With more than 400 planes grounded, 737 Max crisis is still backlashing Boeing Co., and now the Boeing problem could become the industry "problem" as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), may fundamentally change the certification process of aircraft, by prioritizing the human factor in the proceeding. The FAA wants to appraise how quickly airline pilots can react to emergency situations and possibly evaluating how the design o planes make it easier or harder for the pilot's reaction. The proposals need to be the debated of Congress, that has been criticizing the FAA administrator Stephen Dickson over its close relationship with the industry, Dickson it's a former employee of Delta Air Lines.
The effects of the 737 problems, combined with the slowing down economy entails strong headwinds for the whole industry, plus this new regulatory change, companies could see a shrinking of its orders, and more costs to have products in-line with the new possible FAA framework. The positive highlight of the day for the sector goes to the orders coming from several airlines, like Emirates that ordered 50 Airbus A350 jets in a deal worthing $16 billion; Air Arabia ordered 120 Airbus A320s in a $14 billion deal, and Etihad will take 20 Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliners.
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AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,69**Defensive stock to consider is AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) quoted AUG-17 $1,698.**
Reason being XAU / USD (Gold / US Dollar) prices have elevated and appear poised to continue to range above $1,400 with a 1-3 month outlook. Dividend growth (5% yield) reflects metals rally and may continue. Market cap 23.5-BLN means it is quite defensive as pure equity play. **Debt only 3-BLN. Earnings 8-BLN. Assets exceed liabilities greatly.**
**"Industry: Industrial Metals & Minerals**
Full Time Employees: 64,000"
Gold on the rise, global growth slowdown may not reverse trend in production cost which could lead to Platinum rising in shadow of Gold; versus the US Dollar.
Company (AAL.L) revenue rose dramatically more than cost of revenue since 2016 (3 years), an advantage offered by the current market climate (inflation lacking) I deem. Liabilities being much less than assets makes this an indestructible defensive play.
**Platinum group metals are in a strong bullish trend, being rare basic industrial materials this may continue.**
"Platinum group metals" includes: Platinum, Rhodium, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium, Ruthenium.
Long-term copper price risk is to the upside. Refer to recession '08 Copper prices.
**"Anglo American plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, mining, and processing various metals and minerals worldwide. The company explores for rough and polished diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, metallurgical and thermal coal, and iron; and nickel and manganese ores, as well as alloys."**
**Nickel is up 20% in the past 3 months.**
Credit Suisse upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" 5/3/2019. Today is 8/17/2019.
**AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,698 for a 23% difference** and a duration of 1-6 months, **estimate 2-3 months**. This creates possibility of receiving its' dividend of approximately 3% in addition.
BUY AAL (+0.5X) and LUV (+0.5X), sell DAL (-1.0X)As 737 MAXs can fly soon, perhaps the airlines that have many 737 MAXs may start to earn more money.
Buy Americal Airlines NASDAQ:AAL and Southwest Airlines NYSE:LUV and at the same time sell Delta Airlines NYSE:DAL , which is not dependent on 737 MAXs.
AAL Channel Bounce Good Morning All,
I trade Long Call Stock Options.
I think AAL is primed for a bounce upwards.
It has reached a 5 year low point at 24.40 and the lower end of the channel at the same time.
These will act as support to prop up the shares.
Prediction that it will swiftly move up to ~31.
This is where it will be met with Resistance, if this resistance breaks , I think the Whales will Step in and Bull this upwards.
Conservative play would be to wait for the 10 day SMA (Yellow) to Move upwards and Cross the 20 SMA (Blue). This would indicate an Upward Trend
Full Disclosure: I wont be buying in until the SMA Cross, I am not a professional trader and this is not advice.
All trading involves risk and decisions should be made independently.
Massive Risk/Reward in $AAL right nowAAL As seen in the attached weekly chart below, AAL has reached a lifetime support level triple bottom. In addition to this, the daily chart is showing some very steep bullish divergence in RSI and in the Klinger Oscillator. I have had much success playing these particular types of RSI divergences, ones where there is a steep drop into oversold conditions, a slight bounce, followed by a drop below the prior low. If this price action occurs along with a steep RSI divergence print, I have found a high likelihood of a move upward to follow. However, being right at this critical support level adds the most important aspect; risk/reward. Stop loss set at 24.98 allows for less than 2% loss before being able to cut the position and move on elsewhere. With possible gains at a minimum of 15%, the reward outweighs the risk by a ratio of 9:1. Not bad odds to me. If playing short term, I like Sept. 6th C28 options, currently available for no more than .13 per contract. If a longer term buyer, this would be a great spot to initiate a position with stop losses set at 24.98. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Airlines price targets - non-MAX operators BULL** Credit Suisse says non-MAX operators such as Delta Air Lines, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways and Alaska Air Group to benefit most from reduced supply levels in the form of higher load factors and fares
** LUV and AAL combined have the highest exposure to MAX fleet in U.S.
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Price targets / analysts:
CS downgrades American Airlines Group Inc to "underperform" form "neutral", cuts PT to $30 from $32, citing extended grounding's of MAX jets and ongoing mechanics labor dispute
Cuts PT for Southwest Airlines Co to $51 from $53, while also lowering 2019 EPS estimate to $4.07 from $4.45 due to the airline's inability to capitalize on market demand
Upgrades JBLU to "neutral" from "underperform", raises PT to $19 from $16 due to strong seasonal leisure demand and continued execution of cost and revenue initiatives
Raises PT for United Airlines Holdings Inc to $113 from $111 despite its smaller MAX exposure compared to LUV and AAL
AAL Bullish For Metals BounceAAL.L (Anglo American plc) is a precious metals producer with a healthy balance sheet and robust income. Having pulled back from $2,200 to $1,919 in congruence with major stock markets and a current market cap of $24-BLN it makes for yet another appropriate defensive play for the stock market rebound coupled with a probable tendency for precious metals to continue gaining strength.
AAL.L bullish target of $2,100 for a 9.4% difference from the current quote of $1,919. The duration for this trade idea is 1-3 months.
AAL: American Airlines might have bottomedNASDAQ:AAL might have bottomed. And if it falls further, it means trouble for the airline and everyone as well. The chart looks good by the way. Indicators are turning up and if you are looking to hold for long term, catching the falling knives at these levels might be a good bet. I am targeting $40 if the falling wedge breaks upwards. Otherwise a fall below $27 invalidates this outlook.
American Air (AAL) Sell $33.67 > $30.62 (Profit:Risk = 2:1)NASDAQ:AAL
American Airlines Group, Inc.
Information:
Growing Channel was broken. Now we have formed a bear channel. At the opening with a small pullback considering sales.
SPY/SPX/S&P 500 in the coming days may show weakness and fall on the mini correction (Gold is now in a growing local phase).
According to the volume profile, we will have to preserve the main savings for the subsequent fall down.
Today we expect reports.
About stop loss:
Stop loss for the top $35.27. Can be reduced, but given the day of the report. I reduce volume of the position stop loss a little more is obtained.
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Sell Limit = $33.67
Take Profit = $30.62
Stop Loss = $35.27
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Profit:Risk = 2 : 1
Profit:Risk = +9.06% : -4.75%