Widow Makers Airline Stocks Beat the Market by the New YearSince the beginning of the new year, airline stocks have performed exceptionally well despite the very chaotic condition of the US airspace and travel market. Here is the year-to-date performance of a few well-known airline stocks, along with the Boeing stock and the U.S. Global Jets ETF:
● U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): +18.56%
● United Airlines (UAL): +37.53%. Zacks EPS estimation: 2.07. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● American Airlines (AAL): +33.62%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.60. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● JetBlue Airways (JBLU): +26.40%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.17. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Alaska Air (ALK): +18.16%. Zacks EPS Est. 0.88. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Delta Air Lines (DAL): +16.31%. Reported EPS: 1.48 vs 1.29 estimated.
● Southwest Airlines (LUV): +13.15%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.25. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● Spirit Airlines (SAVE): +6.83%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.04. Earning release: 2/6/23.
● Boeing (BA): +10.01%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.29. Earning release: 1/25/23.
● S&P 500: +4.60%
AAL
American Airlines Group flying up to $16.93 Inv Head and Shoulders has formed on Daily chart
We are just waiting for the breakout which will send the price to Target $16.93
With the bull market across the board with investors moving their money back to stocks and out of crypto, we are seeing global upside to come for stocks.
2X $AAL 1D Tech. Analysis!AMERICAN AIRLINES is a patient play for 2 reasons! If it breaks out this channel, we are looking for a retest and confirmation for the drop to continue with volume. Then if it bounces off the bottom and price heads to the top of the channel then we get a even better entry on this setup! Be patient and execute!
AAL short - UPDATEUpdating my AAL earnings idea:
As you can see, we got a confirmation of the described scenario.
It was acceptable to sell intraday using the VWAP pullback point.
Also on the second day we got something similar to a flag, which has worked out.
But of course, being in a position already on the first day, I would not add on the second day.
AAL: Travel is Back!American Airlines
Short Term - We look to Buy at 13.78 (stop at 12.30)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The trend of higher highs is located at 13.40. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 13.40 level.
Our profit targets will be 17.89 and 19.00
Resistance: 18.00 / 21.00 / 25.00
Support: 13.40 / 11.00 / 9.00
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AAL - 3 Long scenarios - Fly little bird, fly 3 Long scenarios
Fundamentals
-
General
One scenario developing doenst invalidate the other. Would trade one after another if it should happen - or all at the same time.
Scenario 1 (Green arrow)
Target
Next resistance level (level 1).
Confluence with the 50% level of a monthly range.
Requirements
- Price closes above buy zone 1
Invalidation / SL
- No break under buy zone 1 AND creating lower swings
Time duration
Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Scenario 2 (Orange arrow)
Target
Next resistance level (level 1).
Confluence with the 50% level of a monthly range.
Requirements
- Price dto buy zone 2
Invalidation / SL
- None, this is a possible longterm hold
Time duration
Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Scenario 3 (Blue arrow)
Target
Next big resistance level
Requirements
- Break above level 1
Invalidation / SL
- None, this is a possible longterm hold
Time duration
Days, weeks, months, years... ;)
Good luck
AAL Bullish inclined naked puts 20 May expiry (May Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
My original intention was to leverage the volatility from the rate increases to enter VXX. However the BP (Buying Power) requirements were pretty high. Making IT less attractive in risk and reward
The airlines sector are seeing signs or recovery with surges over pre-pandemic level in March. United Airlines (21 April) have forecasted a profit this year.
Looking at the Airline stocks with similar prices movements. I decided to sell puts with AAL as I expected traders to jump into this sector with obvious recovery elements. Especially since Tech companies have been victim number 1 with the rising interest rates.
I also saw markets rising after Powell’s address and I figured the volatility was all done. Boy was I wrong haha
I Feel
I’m entering this post entering the trade. Hence my views now are slightly impacted with what has transpired on Thursday and Friday.
I feel I have made the right decision based on the information I had. However Given that my overall stance was that it was a bearish sideways market. 2/3 of my trades should not be bullish. I am not good at predicting the market, so I must be aware of the probabilities across all my trades and not just each individual trade
In my reflection, how I could have also structured this is, riskier trades should be tied to closer expiry dates
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
Right now post entry, post 5,6 May blood bath. It must feel pretty sweet
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
In all states (Bullish, Bearish and Neutral). We all agree that the market is ranging and is highly volatile. As such the trade currently is not moving entirely unexpectedly. I think was was unexpected was the Bullish market wide move, followed by two red days
Look For New Information
Current bearish price action is a market wide drop. There could be recovery or it could continue dropping. We have some allowance, but it’s getting tighter
How Do I Feel Now
A little worried about Monday, but I know this trade individually is made of sound decision elements. However as part of an overall monthly trade structure, this new trade weakens it
Trade Specs
Sold 350 Puts @ 0.13 - Strike 15.5
% to Strike is 17.5%
ATR IS 5%
BP used 54k
Max Gain: 4322.5
Jet Fuel Takes OffWhen will jet fuel stop making all time highs? I think this speaks volumes about the continued pace of inflation combined with a post-2020 "get me outta here and fly me somewhere" mentality, in addition to other factors. So now people want to fly after not flying for a few years. Why do we have to pay mafia level prices now? I guess now it's time for the propaganda machine to shift the narrative to blaming people for their sudden surge flying habits, which still considerably falls short of pre-2020 levels. Rather than looking at the true source of price inflation: Yes, I mean the mafia overlords themselves at the Federal Reserve, their higher order of archdemon overlords will shift blame to something else. If our eating habits were to become an increasing result of centralized policy, for example, we'd all be forced to eat hot dogs and drink orange juice right about now - the only items in the CPI where it seems inflation is somewhat accurately portrayed.
I can imagine the posters already:
PLEASE refrain from your disgusting urges of flying, LOYAL citizens!
Take this delicious and nutritious diet of HOT DOGS and ORANGE JUICE instead.
Do Uncle Sam PROUD, FIGHT inflation TODAY!
Do your part for OUR NATION!
Oh my...
Seriously though, you gotta give some respect to orange juice , SO FAR:
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets! ;)