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AAPL

AAPL Upward Channel OverextensionAAPL has been leading the market over the past couple of months after running more than 55% from its recent bottom and hitting that mythic $3 trillion dollar market cap. For the past two months AAPL has been trading within a clear upward channel clearly respecting the top and bottom of the trend. AAPL has been making a series of higher lows and higher highs while making slight pullbacks to key demand levels. Last week AAPL finally broke up from the wedge pattern on the hourly to finally head up to test the top of the channel trend again. After the gap up and run last week AAPL is starting to look overextended on the hourly while we are also spotting a possible bearish divergence in the RSI forming. Careful going long on AAPL as so far it is being rejected at this supply zone and we have picked up bearish activity betting on a pullback to $191.50. Risk/reward doesn't favor going long as it is overextended even from EMAs. Bulls are looking for a break above the channel or $195, target $196.33 or our 0.619 fib extension. Bears are happy as long as AAPL doesn't break above the supply zone and remains below $195.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by optionsswing
21
Part 3 | All 7 Big Tech | QQQ Sp500 Price level Trend Guide- QQQ still doesnt have a hourly downtrend confirming so daily lower high is not set. - SPY weekly bullflag confirm, so far no follow through yet but we ran out of time so it doesnt count as a rejection for me until i see hourly downtrend - TSLA potentially shaping up an equilibrium - NVDA bull break above 420 back into its all time highs sideways chop zone - AMZN fifth rejection from its 131 chop zone still above support though - GOOGL still the weakest only tech in a daily downtrend - MSFT went form daily downtrend to uptrend today - META same as AMZN in a chop zone rejection 5th time from its resistance.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by ArcadiaTrading
Part 2 | All 7 Big Tech | QQQ Sp500 Price level Trend Guide- QQQ still doesnt have a hourly downtrend confirming so daily lower high is not set. - SPY weekly bullflag confirm, so far no follow through yet but we ran out of time so it doesnt count as a rejection for me until i see hourly downtrend - TSLA potentially shaping up an equilibrium - NVDA bull break above 420 back into its all time highs sideways chop zone - AMZN fifth rejection from its 131 chop zone still above support though - GOOGL still the weakest only tech in a daily downtrend - MSFT went form daily downtrend to uptrend today - META same as AMZN in a chop zone rejection 5th time from its resistance.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
Part 1 | All 7 Big Tech | QQQ Sp500 Price level Trend Guide- QQQ still doesnt have a hourly downtrend confirming so daily lower high is not set. - SPY weekly bullflag confirm, so far no follow through yet but we ran out of time so it doesnt count as a rejection for me until i see hourly downtrend - TSLA potentially shaping up an equilibrium - NVDA bull break above 420 back into its all time highs sideways chop zone - AMZN fifth rejection from its 131 chop zone still above support though - GOOGL still the weakest only tech in a daily downtrend - MSFT went form daily downtrend to uptrend today - META same as AMZN in a chop zone rejection 5th time from its resistance.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
1
Celebrating Apple's Historic Milestone: Market Cap Hits $3 Trill Apple Inc. has achieved an extraordinary milestone - our market capitalization has soared to an unprecedented $3 trillion! 🎉🍏 As you may know, Apple's journey to success has been nothing short of remarkable. From the launch of the iconic iPhone that revolutionized the smartphone industry to the introduction of groundbreaking services like Apple Music, Apple Pay, and Apple Fitness+, they have consistently pushed the boundaries of what technology can do, enriching the lives of millions worldwide. This significant milestone highlights Apple's strength and presents a remarkable opportunity to consider further investing in Apple stock. Here's why we believe Apple continues to be an excellent investment opportunity: 1. Continued Innovation: Apple's commitment to innovation remains at the core of its DNA. With upcoming products and services in the pipeline, they are poised to redefine numerous industries and create new growth opportunities. 2. Strong Financial Performance: Apple has a consistent track record of delivering strong financial results and a robust balance sheet provides a solid foundation for long-term growth and stability. 3. Expanding Ecosystem: Apple's ecosystem, encompassing hardware, software, and services, creates a seamless user experience that fosters customer loyalty and drives revenue across various verticals. Consulting with your financial advisor to evaluate your investment strategy and make informed decisions is recommended as always.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by bryandowningqln
S&P 500 Favors Breakout. Bears and Recessionists = MisanthropesThe bears enjoyed their cycle to the maximum, peak fear is behind us. Observe your favorite pundits to determine if they have shifted their perception yet. Many have not, Many remain Bearish and are greedily awaiting one more Deep Indiscriminate Sell Off.... they will likely wait forever. The first rule of any technology used in a business is that automation applied to an efficient operation will magnify the efficiency. The second is that automation applied to an inefficient operation will magnify the inefficiency. Long SPX = Long Human Innovation and Business Ingenuity!
CBOE:SPXLong
by noam_chom
1
AAPL Share Price Hits All-time HighAAPL's price topped USD 189/share yesterday, coming close to the psychological USD 190/share level. Since the beginning of the year, the AAPL price has risen by about 50%. The bullish momentum is fueled by both the AI hype and the improvement in Apple's product line: → Apple Watch Ultra and iPhone 15 expected this fall. → According to CNBC, the company is working on a second-generation Vision Pro, as well as a cheaper model of a virtual reality helmet. → The line of laptops will be replenished with models with the M3 processor. The AAPL stock chart shows that the price has said goodbye to the down channel (shown in red), showing a strong pattern near the USD 175 level — first acting as resistance, then providing support (indicated by arrows). If the bullish momentum continues, we will soon see the company's capitalization reach USD 3 trillion. Of the 42 analysts surveyed by MarketWatch, only 1 gives a sell rating to AAPL stock. By the way, news about the increase in the target price of the AAPL share is likely to follow soon, its average value, according to analysts, is USD 187.19 today, which is already lower than the current values. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by FXOpen
Apple (AAPL) Breaking Higher Suggesting Further UpsideShort term view in Apple (AAPL) suggests the rally from 3.2.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.2.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 166.84 and dips in wave 2 ended at 159.78. The stock extends higher again in wave 3 towards 184.95 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 182.6. The stock has turne dhigher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 185.2 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 183.07. Stock resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 187.24, and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 185.01. Final leg wave (v) ended at 187.56 which completed wave ((i)). Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 185 with internal subdivision as a flat structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 186 and rally in wave (b) ended at 188.05. Wave (c) lower ended at 185 which completed wave ((ii)). The stock resumes higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 186.15 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 185.27. The stock resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 189.9 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 188.29. Near term, as far as pivot at 182.6 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Elliottwave-Forecast
APPLE ATH Fueled by Quintet PowerhousesHow did APPLE make a new ATH? In the fiscal year of 2022, Apple Inc. amassed a staggering revenue close to $400 billion. The tech behemoth’s financial forecast predicts an even more dazzling $450 billion by 2023. What’s at the nucleus of this financial prowess? Here’s a dissection of the five products and services that are the linchpins in Apple's revenue generation. 1. iPhone: The Standard-Bearer Since its inception in 2007, the iPhone has been the lodestar in Apple's stellar performance, consistently accounting for over half of the company’s revenue. There was a lull in the iPhone's sales during 2015-2020, but the fiscal years of 2021 and 2022 witnessed a robust resurgence. Could it be the worldwide lockdowns that reignited consumers' affinity for this beloved gadget? One wonders. Moreover, Apple's unceasing innovation has been a catalyst in this resurgence. The company has been adept at understanding and adapting to market trends, releasing newer models with advanced features such as enhanced camera capabilities, cutting-edge processors, and improved battery life. The introduction of 5G technology in the iPhone 12 and subsequent models further bolstered its appeal. With the ever-evolving landscape of consumer preferences, Apple's commitment to innovation ensures that the iPhone continues to hold its enviable position in the market. 2. Services: A Diverse Armamentarium Apple's services segment is a multi-pronged affair. The App Store and Apple Music are the twin pillars, but AppleCare, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple Card, and iCloud storage are significant contributors as well. It's been an upward trajectory for this segment since 2013, with no signs of abating. Additionally, the expansion of Apple's services is emblematic of the company's strategic diversification. As the digital landscape evolves, Apple has astutely tapped into the growing demand for integrated services. Its focus on user privacy and seamless integration across devices has been a strong value proposition. For instance, Apple TV+ enters a competitive streaming market but with original content and collaborations with high-profile creators. Apple’s services segment not only supplements its revenue but also enhances customer retention and creates a more entrenched ecosystem, encouraging users to invest more within the Apple universe. 3. Mac: The Unwavering Pillar The allure of personal computers has attenuated globally, and Mac's revenue plateaued between 2011 and 2020. However, the Mac remains integral to Apple’s ecosystem, not least because of its role in keeping users within Apple's interconnected iOS operating system. In recent times, Apple has sought to reinvigorate the Mac lineup through innovation and integration. The introduction of Apple's own M1 chip, as opposed to relying on Intel's processors, marked a significant turning point. The M1 chip has been lauded for its performance and energy efficiency, giving the Mac a competitive edge. Furthermore, the seamless integration between the Mac and other Apple devices through features like Handoff, Universal Clipboard, and Sidecar has reinforced the appeal of owning a Mac as part of the larger Apple ecosystem. This ongoing revitalization suggests that Apple is far from considering the Mac as a legacy product, and is instead positioning it for a renewed period of relevance and growth. 4. iPad: Upon their debut, iPads were an instant sensation, raking in an impressive $19 billion in the first year. There was a zenith in 2014, after which sales experienced a decline. Currently, iPad sales hover in the range of $20-30 billion, cementing their place in Apple’s revenue mix. 5. Wearables & Accessories: The Rising Contenders Under this category, one finds an array of products including Beats headphones, AirPods, and the Apple Watch. This segment has been climbing the ladder of success since 2015. Notably, AirPods are estimated to constitute a quarter of the revenue in this category. Apple's foray into the wearables and accessories market is indicative of its visionary approach to emerging consumer trends. The health and fitness boom, for instance, has been adeptly capitalized on through the Apple Watch, which offers features like heart rate monitoring, exercise tracking, and ECG. AirPods, on the other hand, have become something of a cultural phenomenon, merging high-quality audio with sleek design. These products are not just revenue generators; they are an extension of Apple's ecosystem, promoting brand loyalty and customer engagement. By continuously innovating and expanding in this sector, Apple ensures it remains not just a heavyweight in consumer electronics but a trendsetter in lifestyle technologies. Conclusion: Apple's ascent to become the first company to reach $1 trillion and subsequently $2 trillion in market capitalization is hardly fortuitous. The aforementioned quintet of products and services is the bedrock of its supremacy. With consumers' unabated ardor for Apple’s innovations and the brand loyalty it commands, NASDAQ:AAPL remains a formidable player in the stock market. Is Apple part of your investment portfolio?
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by financialflagship
21
6 Big Tech Stocks | $QQQ Weekly consolidation Price Trend Guide- QQQ & Sp500 weekly time frame consolidation, low of consolidation likely not set yet, need hourly trend changes back to the bulls first - TSLA stock confirmed bear break H&S pattern - NVDA stock broke 420 support and flushed 400 psychological support break than its 394 - AAPL EMA 12 daily and 2D still full bull control - AMZN bull break to 52 week high lack follow through - GOOGL continuation of daily downtrend - MSFT joined team bear with GOOGL confirming its first daily downtrend.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by ArcadiaTrading
APPLE Still a buy inside the 4 month Channel Up.Apple isn't giving us any reasons to stop buying it as it maintains the Channel Up since the March 2nd bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current Rising Support spot and when it hits the MA50 (1d) again. Targets: 1. 194.00 (+13.93% as the previous Rising Support rise) on both entries. Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is trading inside a Rectangle while the price trades inside the Channel Up. It has two clear levels for 'soft' and 'hard' Buy, which can further aid your buying. Please like, follow and comment!!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingBrokersView
2
Price Level Trend Guide TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT|Sp500 QQQ- TSLA stock forming daily H&S pattern - NVDA stock 420 support needs to hold for bulls, bear would likely break this level if we even get a slight red day on QQQ - AAPL 2D EMA 12 still full bull control although its starting to feel slowly at this ATH range - AMZN nice bull break Thursday looking like its consolidating sideways - GOOGL back into its chop zone after breaking both sides with no follow through - QQQ daily EMA 12 support inside bar today forming EQ that will break monday - SPY 4h H&S confirmed bear break.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ArcadiaTrading
AAPL - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹Positive signal from inverse head and shoulders formation through 157 breakout. 🔹Next resistance 193 and support 175. 🔹RSI above 70 indicates strong short-term positive momentum. 🔹Technically positive for medium-term long-term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by wavepoint99
TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT | QQQ SPY Weekly Analysis- TSLA stock forming daily H&S pattern - NVDA stock 420 support needs to hold for bulls, bear would likely break this level if we even get a slight red day on QQQ - AAPL 2D EMA 12 still full bull control although its starting to feel slowly at this ATH range - AMZN nice bull break Thursday looking like its consolidating sideways - GOOGL back into its chop zone after breaking both sides with no follow through - QQQ daily EMA 12 support inside bar today forming EQ that will break monday - SPY 4h H&S confirmed bear break.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
NVDA TSLA AAPL AMZN GOOGL MSFT | QQQ SPY Price Level Analysis- QQQ healthy pull back last 3 days and bounced hourly uptrend will be the guide - SPY same with QQQ hourly uptrend is the guide - NVDA relative weaker compare to QQQ - TSLA potential 4h head and shoulder - AAPL ATH closed still the strongest tech , 2D EMA 12 full bull control - AMZN bull break out of its consolidation - GOOGL bounce back into its side ways range - MSFT potential bear flag still need to bounce more
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
2
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of TrendA Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of Trend: To Peek or Not to Peek “The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” - Ed Seykota Trend analysis lies at the core of technical analysis. Modern technical analysis derived from Dow Theory. In turn, Dow Theory emphasized the nature and importance of trends and their constituent parts and degrees. Many may recall Dow’s analogy of different trend degrees: the tide (primary trend), waves (secondary trend), and ripples on the waves (minor / short-term trend). Technical analysis includes many other concepts within its scope. But within technical analysis broadly, the primary focus remains the trend structure. Before considering trends, it may help to discuss the distinction broadly between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. A. Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis Top traders and market experts have taken each side in the debate over whether technical or fundamental analysis has the greatest efficacy. Some have straddled the line, preferring a combination of the two. Some consider technical analysis to be not only superior but also relatively straightforward and efficient compared to other types of analysis, such as fundamental analysis or positioning analysis.FN1 Positioning analysis is beyond the scope of this post and is briefly explained in the first footnote. Jim Rogers, a famous investor who managed a reportedly very successful fund with George Soros in the 1970s, and who had had many accurate forecasts, expressed strong disdain for technical analysis—he once told Jack Schwager, “I haven’t met a rich technician.” But some of the greatest traders and market experts stand on the other side of this debate. For example, Ed Seykota is a trader of great renown included in Schwager’s 1993 Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders. Seykota chose the technical-analysis camp, giving the most weight to trends, chart patterns and good entries and exits. He once described markets in a way that evokes Charles Dow’s wave analogy: If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when its coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right. A former portfolio manager for Fidelity Management who founded several other research and investment firms, David Lundgren, described how he came to follow the principles of technical analysis even though he still expressed great value for fundamental analysis. From an interview included in a 2021 Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, Lundgren shared some of his experiences and insights on this topic. In his view, fundamentals can matter significantly over the long term especially as to stocks. But Lundgren’s most outstanding remarks in this interview distinguished between these two conceptual approaches to financial markets. He aptly characterized fundamental analysis as being based on the view that the “market is wrong.” In other words, the valuations drawn from a publicly traded company’s financial statements (e.g., P/E ratio, enterprise value, book value) assume the market is “overestimating or underestimating value” and that the price should be above / below the current market price. By contrast, he said technical analysis assumes the contrary view that the market is actually right in its current price and price trend. The critical distinction between technical analysis and fundamental analysis boils down to ego, according to Lundgren, because pure technical analysis “accepts the verdict of the market” whereas pure fundamental analysis “involves hundreds of hours developing an opinion of what is attractive and often with the verdict of the market.” Much ink has and will be spilled on whether price discounts everything, and if so, how fast and efficiently (Charles Dow Theory). In any case, fundamental, technical and positioning modes of analysis are not mutually exclusive. B. Whether to Consider Data outside the Confines of Trend Since last year’s October 2022 lows in the S&P 500 (SPX) and other major US indices, the current equity market uptrend has been challenging and bewildering to many investors, traders and analysts. It has been especially difficult to comprehend for those who are keenly aware of the broader financial and macroeconomic environment, which includes purportedly tight monetary policy and quantitative tightening (reducing Treasury securities off the Fed’s balance sheet) as well as stubborn core inflation. Such an environment broadly speaking remains unfavorable to equities for the most part.FN2 But trends do not always move in the most sensible direction, and they do not always align consistently with the macroeconomic evidence. Sentiment or even positioning, discussed briefly in the first footnote, can affect the trend even when it may run counter to the macroeconomic evidence. And trends can stretch into an overbought or oversold condition longer than anyone expects, a principle captured by the old aphorism, attributed to John Maynard Keynes, that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Exhaustion doesn’t require a 180-degree turn but often appears more like a process, especially at market tops given the long-only nature of most equity capital. Pure trend followers, who supposedly consider only the technical trend-based evidence, may not care whether the trend makes sense. Indeed, they place their stops and align their trades / investments in accordance with one of many trend-based strategies. And this narrowed focus may be very helpful and exceedingly profitable at times. A recent example is the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), or even some large or mega-cap tech names like AAPL, MSFT, META, and NVDA. These indices and securities could have rewarded narrowly focused trend-followers quite well on daily and weekly time frames over the past eight months, especially if discipline was used to enter positions at major uptrend supports with stops moved to breakeven or higher along the way. Such trend traders and investors may be busily counting their profits rather than being distracted with inverted yield curves and FOMC policy statements. The question becomes whether one may look outside the trend (or technical analysis generally). This issue likely generates pages of academic argument and hours of financial media debates between experts. And it may be something for all traders to ponder for a bit. Given how much of an influence positioning has developed on equity markets over time, as well as central-bank quantitative tightening or quantitative easing, it seems important to consider data from such sources. Such data may also include trend information that affects trends in everything else. For example, trends in the price of commodities may tell us about inflation and likelihood of tighter monetary policy / interest rate hikes by a central bank. And trends in the money supply may strengthen or weaken the case for a current trend in equities. C. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking beyond the Trend In this author’s view, it is not necessarily foolish or improper to sneak a peek or a long thoughtful gaze, outside a rigid trend-based framework. As with everything in life and trading, costs and benefits must be weighed. The biggest drawback to going outside the confines of trend is the tendency of many traders to try to consider far too much. Our brains are only capable of processing so much at a given time. Focusing on too much data can cause dilute confidence, weaken resolve, and obfuscate trends. In addition, by the time a trader considers a macroeconomic data point, computerized systems likely have informed all the largest institutional players, or even algorithmic or high-frequency traders, who acted on it before you even had a chance to review its implications. And the market’s reaction to non-technical data points is not always intuitive. But if one can manage understanding additional data outside the trend/price framework, one might find benefit in learning and following data on yield curves, bond-market dynamics, Fed Funds rates, macroeconomic data, inflationary measures, and volatility gauges can inform one’s outlook in useful ways. The key here is to avoid repeatedly (and blindly) fighting the trend in price—even if one fights that trend with some of the most rational, reasonable and persuasive arguments based on overwhelming macroeconomic, volatility, sentiment, positioning, or other such evidence as to why price should be going the opposite way. In short, this is the important general rule for trend-based systems—make the trend your friend until the end when it bends.FN3 D. Practical Application and Hypotheticals Just because one should make friends with the trend does not warrant chasing extended trends (see FN3), unless the trader or investor has developed particular expertise in momentum trading, and even then, caution is greatly warranted. Every trend has its proper entries for the time frame involved. Uptrends necessarily require countertrend retracements to support whether defined as an anchored VWAP, key moving average, Fibonacci retracement, upward trendline, or standard-deviation based measures such as linear regression or Bollinger Bands. Technically, this is not peeking outside the trend, but rather it merely considers evidence of trend exhaustion and the likelihood of mean reversion. Further, a trend-based framework should in fact include considering higher time frame trends such as a monthly chart where each price bar represents one month of price data. One of this author’s collaborators, @SPY_Master, has performed some excellent trend-based analysis on timeframes as high as monthly, quarterly (even yearly bars at times). It is quite common, moreover, for higher-degree trends to move in the opposite direction as lower-degree trends, such as during a monthly or quarterly uptrend experiencing a corrective retracement to trend support that lasts for days or weeks. Or the hourly trend can move against the daily / weekly trend, frequently does so whenever a countertrend retracement to trend support occurs. Can one technically “fight the trend” merely by preferring a higher degree time-frame trend when it conflicts with a shorter one? The answer depends on one’s time frame, risk tolerance, position size, and rationale. In addition, trends involving a particular stock, index, or other security can be evaluated based on their relative strength, i.e., as a ratio of the subject stock, index or security to another stock, index, security or data series. The S&P 500 can be compared to the Nasdaq 100 or 10-year Treasures. Or BITSTAMP:ETHUSD can be charted as a ratio to another cryptocurrency. This author would argue that such metrics can provide useful trend-based insights even though they incorporate data that is technically beyond the scope of trend. Below are a couple such relative-strength charts that arguably fall within trend-analysis despite relying on data that would normally be considered outside of a price trend's scope: Example 1 shows this author's relative strength chart of NASDAQ:AAPL to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold). This is a very long-term chart showing the outperformance trend in AAPL over two decades to the precious medal and commodity Gold. Example 2 shows @SPY_Master's relative-strength chart of NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI-tech stock into which everyone's distant relatives are now inquiring after its meteoric rise from 2022 bear-market depths. The chart is a relative-strength chart of the ratio of NVDA to the 10-Year Treasury note, which aptly shows how overvalued NVDA is relative to a risk-free asset. It appears far too extended above the risk-free asset in terms of standard deviation on a linear regression-based model shown here. (Note that yields and bonds move inversely, so where an asset outperforms a risk-free bond, it means that the asset is extended given the level of yields produced by that bond.) Credit: SPY_Master (used with permission) To conclude, consider the following hypothetical scenarios as a thought experiment. Assume a stock has a monthly or quarterly chart that is extended multiple deviations above the mean (or multiple deviations as a ratio of its price to the money supply). NVDA presents a good case study for these concepts. Scenario A: A person entered the position at $290 and took profits on this stock at $405, preferring to exercise caution and avoid this stock as a long-term investment. Scenario B: A hedge fund with a 150-page report of deep research on NVDA and the macroeconomic backdrop has a 10-year time horizon and begins scaling into a short position to anticipate a mean reversion at the higher degrees of trend (monthly, quarterly time frames). The hedge fund will add one quarter at $450, another quarter position at $500, and the final two quarters between $500 and $600 if reached. Should either scenario be deemed fighting the trend? Is either scenario ill-advised use of capital? Any answers are welcome in the comments provided respectful towards others. FN1 This footnote helps explain some basics of fundamental and positioning analysis. Beyond this brief explanation, this article will defer to other educational experts for a more thorough explanation of these three modes of financial analysis. Fundamental analysis for equity indices like SP:SPX or NASDAQ:NDX considers macroeconomic data and metrics that focus on an economy’s growth (e.g., GDP), price-stability / inflation (CPI, PCE, PPI), consumption, real estate, money supply, central-bank rate policies, central-bank QE or QT, trade deficits, and more. Fundamental analysis as to individual stocks involves the use of financial data such as revenue, earnings per share, cost of goods sold, capital expenditures, and other data available from a public company’s certified financial statements, as well as financial ratios relying on such data, e.g., earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-sales ratios (P/S) and liquidity ratios (current ratio). In the US and other major economies, securities rules mandate that companies file full disclosure of their financial health, certified by CEOs and CFOs, in annual reports (10-K and quarterly reports (10-Q) on an ongoing basis. Positioning analysis looks at a complex array of data that covers institutional market positioning and order flows for stocks, options, indices, commodities and futures. It also looks at increasingly important dealer hedging flows (volume and open interest) in options markets and the effect of implied volatility and time on such flows. It can include such insights as net positioning on each side of a given futures market or index by hedgers and speculators. This is an area where expert commentary is helpful to learn even the basics. FN2 Yet the central-bank and US Treasury actions behind the scenes may have masked, or even partially or wholly offset, tight Fed interest rate and monetary policy at times during the first half of 2023. For example, many financial publications and analysts discussed the US Treasury’s accounting maneuvers intended to prolong its borrowing authority in light of the debt-ceiling standoff. Commentary also noted that such maneuvering, draining the TGA account (the US Treasury’s “checking account” held at the Federal Reserve), injected money / liquidity into the financial system, which likely muted Fed’s efforts to tighten policy in the short-term while those actions were ongoing. FN3 But as is often the case with a general rule, the exceptions can dilute the rule somewhat. One prominent exception is mean-reversion analysis / trading systems. In addition, some traders and institutions are trend-reversal traders—a high risk, high reward type approach that requires immaculate risk management, timing, precision and patience, often scaling into and out of massive positions that cannot be acquired or unloaded in a period of days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SquishTrade
7