$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
AAPL
Apple Stock Defies Market Downturn with Strong Q3 PerformanceIn a day marked by a broad-market selloff, Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) stood out as a beacon of resilience and strength. The tech giant’s shares rose on Friday, buoyed by its impressive fiscal third-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations. Here’s a closer look at Apple’s recent performance and what it means for investors.
Stellar Earnings Report
Apple reported a 4.9% year-over-year increase in revenue for the quarter ending June 29, reaching $85.8 billion. This growth was primarily driven by a 14.1% surge in services revenue, which hit $24.2 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also saw a notable increase, rising 11.1% to $1.40, significantly above the anticipated $1.35 per share.
"During the quarter, our record business performance generated EPS growth of 11 percent and nearly $29 billion in operating cash flow, allowing us to return over $32 billion to shareholders," said Luca Maestri, Apple’s Chief Financial Officer. "We are also very pleased that our installed base of active devices reached a new all-time high in all geographic segments, thanks to very high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty."
Key Performance Metrics
- Mac Sales: Increased by 2.5% to $7 billion.
- iPad Sales: Surged by 23.7% to $7.2 billion.
- iPhone Sales: Slight decline of 0.9% to $39.3 billion.
- Wearables, Home, and Accessories: Decreased by 2.2% to $8.1 billion.
The growth in services and devices sales highlights Apple's diverse revenue streams, which continue to drive overall financial health despite minor setbacks in iPhone sales.
Market Reactions and Future Outlook
Wall Street reacted positively to Apple’s robust financial performance, with the stock gaining ground in a market otherwise dominated by losses. Since early May, following the announcement of a substantial stock buyback program, Apple’s shares have climbed nearly 32%. The consensus among analysts remains bullish, with an average target price of $231.32, indicating a potential upside of about 4% from current levels. Notably, Needham has set a higher price target of $260, suggesting over 16% growth potential.
Needham analyst Laura Martin highlighted Apple’s strategic focus on leveraging its vast installed base of more than 1.25 billion wealthy consumers. "We believe Apple’s goal is to grow long-term volume through increasing the average revenue per user and lowering churn levels by up-selling its users into additional devices and services," Martin noted.
Strategic Initiatives
Apple’s strategy of enhancing its ecosystem through increased services and product integration continues to pay off. The company’s commitment to returning value to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends further solidifies its position as a stable and attractive investment.
On the conference call, Maestri projected similar revenue growth rates for the fourth quarter, including double-digit growth in services. This positive outlook underscores the company’s ability to navigate economic uncertainties and maintain its growth trajectory.
Conclusion
Despite a turbulent market environment, Apple’s strong fiscal third-quarter results and strategic initiatives have positioned it well for continued success. The tech giant’s ability to deliver impressive earnings, maintain high customer loyalty, and execute effective growth strategies makes it a compelling stock for both current and potential investors.
As Apple continues to innovate and expand its services, it remains a cornerstone of stability and growth in the tech sector. With Wall Street's confidence and a solid roadmap ahead, Apple’s stock is poised to keep delivering value to its shareholders.
APPLE Dont get fooled by the short-term pull-back. $280 on trackExactly 3 months ago (May 02, see chart below), we called for a strong buy signal on Apple (AAPL) and it dully delivered as 2 days ago the stock completed three straight green months with a new All Time High (ATH):
The recent weekly pull-back shouldn't allow you to diverge from the bigger picture and on this analysis we look at it from a 1M time-frame perspective. As you can see, as long as the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, Apple will continue to be on a 15-year uptrend, which shows very distinct Phases.
Right now we are on the Channel Up that followed the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a similar correction to 2015 - 2016 (China's slowdown). The Channel Up that followed peaked at +161% before the next correction towards the 1M MA50. Even the 2013 - 2014 rise was still +145%.
As a result, we don't believe the current Channel Up to be over either, expecting a peak closer to 300. Our Target is marginally below it at $280.00.
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AAPL Apple Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AAPL before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AAPL Apple prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 220usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-2,
for a premium of approximately $3.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
APPLE What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for APPLE is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 230.56
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 220.14
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
The Apple DominionThe weakest minion can terminate the Apple dominion.
Apples, like all fruit, are born to serve two purposes.
To spread the apple species and to feed birds, worms and humans.
The life of the apple is interesting to watch. It began as a tiny seed in the fields of NASDAQ in 1980, weighing at $0.39 (or grams).
Now the apple has grown to be almost 800 grams. That is record heavy for an apple.
(There have been several stock splits that lowered the price of each apple)
The miracle of nature is, that a tiny cell can multiply thousands upon thousands of times. In this case, our apple fruit has grown almost 2000x since its birth.
We have fed off of apples for a long long time.
The consumption of apples (measured in pieces) reached its peak in 2010.
Most who needed to eat a single apple, have eaten it. Volume is significantly decreasing.
This apple fruit is now massive in size. No sane person would eat 800 grams of apple in an evening. Of course volume has significantly weakened. Now with a single apple you can feed an entire family.
To make some sense of the real need for apples, we have to consider the daily consumption of apples in grams, not in a piece-by-piece basis.
This indicators makes a very simple calculation. It multiplies volume with the logarithm of price.
If we wish to compare price to volume, we must convert them both in the same scale.
Volume is linear, while price is logarithmic. To compare apples to apples, price must be turned into a linear number.
An interesting phenomenon takes shape right in front of our eyes.
Apple consumption reached its peak in 2008. From then, the market is getting progressively more saturated in apples.
Think about it. Everyone who needed an apple, has eaten one.
There is almost nobody left who has never eaten an apple.
Up until 2008, most the majority of apples went into our mouths.
Now, the majority of apples will have to evacuate through the back door.
Consumers have eaten too much of everything, not just apples.
Similar saturation problems occur in the wider feed (equity) market.
Stepping aside from the wider eating problem, we can perform some more analysis on recent price action of apples. To further support the following analysis, I will consult some professionals. Robert D. Edwards, John Magee and W.H.C. Bassetti. In their book called "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (Eleventh Edition)", in page 62 there is an incredible chart.
As it turns out, Head-and-Shoulders patterns can be non-normal. With many bumps for heads and shoulders. This chart will be used as a guideline for recent apple prices.
These charts are too similar to ignore. Truth is usually hidden right under our noses. We may choose to ignore it, but it still exists.
While the NL (Neck Line) trend is intact, a wider trend is at risk.
Even if price tries to cloud your judgement using fakeouts, you must stay strong in your view.
And if you are afraid of being wrong, you must find more ways to prove that you are not an elephant.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
The Dot-AI BubbleSpeculative bubbles excite traders and investors alike.
NVDA is the absolute winner of the AI craze.
Craze is the sentiment of the market cycle peak.
After craze and euphoria, fear and denial will inevitably flood our minds.
It is nothing more than the never-ending cycle of the economy.
A simple line drawn on a chart spells the ultimate demise for speculation.
NVDA is making all-time-highs. Its performance/momentum however is showing alarming signs of weakness.
Beware. Not all is as it seems.
The very nature of a Bubble is that it defies all measurable mathematics.
NVDA wants more. It wants everything. Just like any other corporation would.
For capitalism, more equals more.
NVDA aims to swallow the entire money supply. Improbable as it may seem, physics theoretically allows that.
Divergence is one of the most misunderstood concepts in analysis. Divergence is not describing a future weakness. It describes the current weakness.
NVDA is moving so fast, that its bear market is itself growing exponentially.
If NVDA is now moving slower now than it was in 2015-2018, how fast is it trying to go?
NVDA remembers the explosiveness of that period, and is trying everything to repeat it.
Prices and investors have memory. Both however forget the well-known saying.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
This is the Achilles' heel of prices. They promise what they cannot deliver.
Price will reach as high as possible, for as long as there is a willing buyer to take the bait.
For capitalism, more is better, at all costs. The ultimate cost will certainly be paid.
The last buyer will be the last NVDA bear who will give-in the mania. And that will mark the end.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Topping Pattern Ahead of Earnings: AAPLNASDAQ:AAPL needs to have a great earnings report on August 1st but it has a topping formation at the moment, after huge speculation from promoting something that is not yet proven to increase sales. You can't take hope to the bank. Speculation occurred as investors assumed that AI would sell more new iPhones in droves. This earnings report will reveal reality one way or another.
There is a negative divergence between the price trend and accumulation/distribution suggesting there may have been quiet rotation against the retail speculation.
AAPL Support and Resistance Levels and Options225 is a major level for AAPL it is shown that a previous support on 225 back in July became a resistance. There is also a spread in the options chain where if the price stays below 225 then 220, 215, and 200 will get sold as well. so far we are still under 225 so we remain bearish. however there is a lot of spread pinned in 220. if we go above 220 we can see 232.5 and 240 but below that we are still targeting 215, 210 and 200.
$AAPL short term range $242-214Think NASDAQ:AAPL is likely to continue the trend higher here and squeeze up to the $242 level.
Once we hit that, I do think we'll see a sharp selloff back down to the $214 level.
My plan is to enter puts once we hit the top level because I think we should see a swift pullback and there should be large gains to come from that.
I'll update as price action continues to play out.
Apple: Bullish Seasonal Growth ExpectedApple Inc. (AAPL) is trading at $230.54 and higher in the pre-market session, continuing to demonstrate strength as the price embarks on a seasonal growth trajectory that is projected to persist through the first two weeks of August. This anticipated bullish upside aligns with our in-depth analysis of market trends and seasonal patterns.
A significant factor driving this optimistic outlook is the positioning of various market participants. Large speculators, typically institutional investors and hedge funds, are currently holding long positions on Apple. This suggests a strong confidence in the stock’s potential for further gains. On the other hand, retail traders are predominantly positioned on the short side, which often indicates a contrarian opportunity for upward movement as these positions may get squeezed.
Given these dynamics, we see a compelling opportunity to buy Apple stock at the opening of today’s market. The alignment of large speculators' long positions with the seasonal trend enhances the probability of a sustained bullish run. Historical data supports this seasonal growth pattern for Apple, typically seeing a positive performance during this time of year.
Investors should consider the broader market context as well. Apple, as a leading tech giant, often sets the tone for market sentiment. Its robust fundamentals, continuous innovation, and strong consumer demand further underpin the bullish case. Additionally, any positive developments in the broader tech sector or favorable economic indicators could provide additional tailwinds for Apple's stock price.
In conclusion, with Apple trading at $230.54 and higher in the pre-market and supported by a seasonal growth pattern and strong positioning from large speculators, we are poised to capitalize on this opportunity. Entering a long position at the market opening aligns with our analysis and the anticipated bullish trajectory through mid-August. Investors should monitor the stock closely, considering both the seasonal trends and market participant behavior to make informed trading decisions.
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APPLE: Bearish Forecast & Outlook
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current APPLE chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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Apple is BullishApple is bullish and in an uptrend channel on the daily timeframe.
With today's close will confirm, a break out above the resistance area around 195-200 (to become the new support/demand zone) and a break out of the double-bottom pattern. Target is set to the upper levels of the channel at 250.
Matter MattersMarkets are liquid. Liquids, by definition, move.
Some of them have moved tremendously well.
These liquids got so strong that they are now considered to be gasses.
Unfortunately for them, gasses are not very dense. They are light and weak.
Apple is the prime example of this important paradigm change.
Until ~2005 Apple tried to strengthen and it magnificently did. It reached the optimal point in its cycle. It began as cold hard ice which is hard to move and turned into dense water. In the last 20 years Apple (and many others) turned into hot liquids that have the risk of evaporation into gas.
Now these hot markets are reaching the end of their cycle...
Gases reach the upper levels of the atmosphere. There they can only turn into rain, or escape into space. Either one of them is bad for markets.
The birthplace of bull markets are rivers lakes and oceans. The end of their life is up in the skies. Market Cycles are just like Water Cycles. They cannot escape the cycle.
Hot markets can only get colder. Remember, space is very very cold and can easily turn growing gasses into falling rain. Investors are now beginning to fear.
And so, they fly to safety. One of these safe havens is Gold, which has performed incredibly these past few months. Inside the equity market however, there are stocks that begin to exhibit incredible signs of resilience (coldness) like BRK.A
Has Berkshire reached the "island of stability"?
If we plot a volume-weighted candle chart, we realize that Berkshire Hathaway has created a massive plateau. A lake in the mountains. A place for investors to swim into.
With ongoing worldwide conflict, investments like these will definitely pull buyers towards them.
Apple is not the only weak. It is a mere example of the many "bubbling" companies that face issues.
Their growth was an example of easy money loose monetary policies. With high yield rates the survival of these bull markets is not guaranteed.
On the other hand Berkshire is not the only one that shows strength.
Companies like Exxon Mobil, an energy company, cannot be easily ignored.
Now compare this massive brick of volume to the following chart:
No words need be spoken.
Matter matters. Not all H2O is identical.
A solid investment needs ample liquidity and warm water.
A long-term investor may seek heavy icebergs, which may take years to melt.
A seller or a reckless trader may look into some of the innumerable gas giants to profit on.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori