Aaplshort
Daily Review: TSLA, FB, and AAPLToday, after a promising start to the trading session, U.S. equities experienced a sharp rejection at resistance and swiftly returned to short term support levels. The Dow Industrials Average closed today -0.13% and for a second day in a row, the Nasdaq 100 lagged behind, ending the session -1.40%. Could this be a sign of things to come? Today, we take a look at Tesla, Facebook and Apple.
False Start
Over the weekend it was reported by Bloomberg that Tesla was looking into reopening their Fremont factory, which produces Tesla vehicles for North America and Europe. Well, after yesterday's closing bell, those plans got shelved due to an extension of the shelter-in-place order around the San Francisco Bay area. The result, Tesla shares dropped at start of the today's session and ended the day cutting into more than half of Monday's gains, closing -3.71%.
Tesla reports their fiscal Q1 2020 results after the bell tomorrow. There continues to be two competing train of thoughts on evaluating Tesla. Either it should be valued as a car manufacture and the story ends or its valuation should be that of a tech company. My money is on it continues being valued as a tech play and it sure trades like one. Let's see how traders positioning themselves ahead of earnings.
Above is the 4-hour chart of Tesla. The relative strength index (RSI) is warning that price may pull back in the short term before heading any higher. However, the resistance above is strong. Notice how price has respected resistance and also formed a hammer reversal candle at the top of the range. Price closing above the hammer and into resistance would favor the bulls continuing higher, but the risk is greater than the reward. Bias: Bearish .
Early Warning
Earlier, Facebook issued a warning that its fiscal first quarter 2020 results were "adversely affected" by the pandemic. Facebook shares proceeded to drop nearly 40% but has clawed its way back a respectable 33% off the March lows. Despite the rally, Facebook, like Alphabet Inc.'s bottom line is reliant on advertisement revenue and this may result in a negative reaction by traders and investors.
The charts, aren't favoring continuation. Below is the weekly chart of Facebook. Price rallied into and has been rejected by the 20 week moving average. A critical retest of RSI support is likely next. If Facebook fails to this level, there is a risk of retesting the lows or exceeding the lows. Bias: Bearish .
Delay on the Horizon?
Lately, there have been rumblings that Apple will be pushing back their production of new iPhones with 5G capabilities. It wouldn't be a surprise. Apple, had already pulled guidance citing the production problems and sales in China. Moreover, the evidence of a delay could already have been priced in some of Apple's suppliers, Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) and Qorvo (QRVO) who rely heavily on Apple for revenue. What are the charts telling us?
Skyworks and Qorvo had strong performances today, both finishing up nearly 3% for the day, perhaps signaling good news out of Apple's earning results. However, unlike its suppliers, Apple ended the trading session -1.62%. On the daily chart above and you see that Apple was rejected near the top of its short term trading range. Note the doji candle that formed on April 16th has been respected. A daily close above would favor the bulls.
From a trend perspective, there is evidence that the trend has ended and Apple has begun a period of correction. On the chart below is the presumptive Elliott wave picture. Notice how the last move consisted of five waves up. If it stands, the fifth wave would have truncated (failure to go beyond wave three).
The Apple chart has begun to show signs of weakness. As the second largest component of the Nasdaq 100, be wary. Where Apple goes from here will drag down the index. Apple is not a safe bet heading into earnings. Bias: Bearish .
Top In?
This week started off with a bang and as today came to a close the promising start to the week seems like the distant past. Once I noticed the Nasdaq 100 lagging yesterday, I knew that was a red flag. Although there is mounting evidence favoring a correction. I still believe there will be opportunities to buy some names heading into earnings. Tomorrow we review Amazon, Shopify and Virgin Galactic Holdings. Have a great evening!
#AAPL ANALYSIS.. NEVER SAY NEVER.. In my previous analysis, I mentioned that a strong sales wave could come to the markets again, in this context, I expect a structure as I mentioned in the chart.. Never say never.. Markets will be very interesting after 6 months, we will wait and see.. I firmly believe that big crash will come eventually and oil prices were the leading indicator of this..
Disclaimer: Please do your own due diligence when it comes to investing.. Never put in money that you cannot afford to lose.. Invest at your own risk..
I wish you all the best..
Apple: Technical Gap Analysis 1D (Apr. 26)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS:
Apple has shown great strength in its recovery from the damage caused by the corona virus (Covid-19). In this analysis, we explore a purely technical approach to Apple (AAPL), using the gap theory.
Analysis
- Gaps are areas on a chart where the price of a stock moves sharply up or down, with little or no trading in between.
- As a result, the asset's chart shows a gap in the normal price pattern
- Gaps have a tendency of getting filled.
- Thus, when we see gaps below the price during an uptrend, it indicates that there is a probability of a correction
- Apple's chart on the daily is rather choppy, and presents room for multiple gaps
- Gaps that have been filled are marked by green
- We currently see two major unfilled gaps both above and below the current price level
- While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves in an uptrend, creating higher lows, we have not yet broken the descending trend line
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a potential death cross, as the bullish histogram show signs of weakened momentum
What We Believe
Based on the gap theory, given that all gaps fill, this would be the most probable scenario; we see a rejection at the descending trend line support, and as prices fill the gaps below, a double bottom is formed on the daily. Then, we see a breakout from the descending trend line resistance, and a continued bullish rally to fill the gaps above. However, it's imperative to note that gaps don't get filled all the time.
Trade Safe.
AAPLHas some important levels in this tight area. Today sold into demand after breaking down from upward wedge. Held the demand zone and started making higher lows, setting up potential 1 - 2; 1 - 2 waves out. But, some hurdles here and big things to watch:
1) breakout from demand means nothing if it can’t clear 271.38 on the potential next attempt; failing to do so can cause more time in the demand zone. More time in a zone weakens it;
2) just above 271.38, price action will have to deal with the recent down trend line which happens to align with a small supply zone. The supply zone is only a 15 minute time frame so not that strong of one;
3) if we open tomorrow with a bid down, 265.43 is the key support level. A print below this will be a lower low and opens the door to trade down to 261/260 quickly
Game Plan: if price catches a bid up, I’ll look to enter a small long with small risk. Clearing those hurdles and it can trade to 278 pretty easily I believe. If price is bid down, I’ll watch to see price action and pressure on the key support price. If it breaks, will enter a small short trade. Small because demand levels below are pretty up in the air I believe at this moment and will just look to lock in a profit
NOTE: if we have a large gap up/down above/below these levels, I’ll sit this one out until a clear range presents itself to wait for price to enter to either long or short
$AAPL (SHORT)Everything on the chart.
Corrective movement has been completed, I think that we will continue to decline to update the current minimum, at least to the area of 180
Open pos: market
Stop: 290
Take profit: ~181
Good luck.
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AAPLWatching today. Think we can get a push up to 290’s but thinking it will be choppy. Think price will bounce between 284 and 298. Not bullish until 304 is broken (high of previous wave (b).
Currently in a wave c up. Wave c usually measures 1x to 1.3x length of a. Those two prices happen to be 288 and 304! So even with a push to 304 I’ll remain cautious because despite that being a potential signal to look at a long position, it is also the point where wave c generally terminates and reverses.
No positions in this one as of right now.
$AAPL - Market was always one step aheadThe Market was always one step ahead. I think we are now in the B wave which could lead us to $280 and into the Bull Trap. From my last AAPL idea, I stated that the Covid peak and optimism will lead us up on the b wave and will now lead us to around $287.
As a result, I expect "if" we get the C wave it will now lead us to the $159.
Please do your DD.
AAPL 200?I am going to start sharing a lot more of my chart analysis with the community. This is a potential scenario in the event the market turns for lower lows. A leading diagonal in EW with wave 5 showing equality with wave 1 at 200. Also included the "extended 5th wave" scenario since wave 3 was only 1.272 of wave 1. I don't think that is likely though, but if the market turns back down I'd be watching for that 200 level on AAPL for sure.
AAPL : think we start to see Wave (C) upEarlier thought about taking a call credit spread but price never gave me a convincing entry for a day trade. Obviously it would have worked out today but it isn’t about that. Don’t trade just to trade; some of the best trades are no trades! Who knows, I could have done that trade today and the market decides to have a complete opposite event of today, where I would have taken a loss!
I think we start to see wave (C) up here. We easily can fluctuate from here down to 238 area but I am leaning towards to start up.
Started small long today. Will either 1) look to build long on an established 1-2 wave; or 2) watch this demand zone, breaking down and out of this zone will signal a stop loss for me. But again, I think we can see some upward movement.