Apple by EOYApple based on current 119D movement. I still believe Apple is heading below $100 this year. It took a tad longer to see a drop because of corporate buybacks but that wont change the overall outlook for Apple.
Apple's price move from 2018 downward coincides with the Feds tapering. The August 2019 rally also coincides directly with the Fed increasing QE in August 2019. You can see somewhat normal movement until the price breaks out of the channel, although QE was introduced in 2008.
No QE = no more rallying. More QE = hyperinflation. Simple as that. I think the Fed will let equities take a bath to save the dollar... but than again, who knows?
Data Points:
MACD Crossed
RSI has room to come down
Q1 Guidance was grim
Aaplshort
Don't Buy AAPL in Short TermAs we can see in the above weekly charter, Apple(AAPL) is doing a correction in wave (C) in black to complete the wave II in red. The wave (C) will be done in wave 5 in blue.
- ALERT: We expect Smart Buyers will appear around $140~142
- Apple(AAPL) has a strong correlation with NASDAQ and this also shows the similar structure. We need to continue following this correlation.
Apple -> Short Term ReversalHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Apple stock is currently retesting a quite obvious previous weekly downtrend resistance line exactly at the $165 area.
Also just recently Apple stock created a weekly inverted head and shoulders so I definitely do expect the market to reject this downtrendline to retest the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders at the $155 area and then from there create more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is still massively bullish so I am now just waiting for Apple to show me some more bearish rejection at the current levels and then there is a high chance that we will see a short term rejection away from the downtrend resistance trendline.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
AAPL Short Idea for Long TermAAPL is bearish in Long run. High probability of Price test the Supply zone of 172.26 - 176.27 and a fall to the demand zone of 136.25 - 133.77 followed by an Imbalance in Price.
A strong reversal pattern of AB=CD has been established followed by a continuation pattern of H&S which can help the price reach to the supply area.
AAPL ShortLooking for AAPL to retrace to the lower bounds of its current channel.
125-120 is the target zone.
Seems very unlikely for Apple to push up to ATH's given such uneasy market conditions, but anything could happen so best to keep a tight stop.
VIX at 22. Looking for short-term bull momentum in aapl to take it up to my entry and the short is on!
This is not financial advice, good luck!
Apple -> Could It Be More Obvious?Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe Apple stock is currently retesting a quite obvious previous resistance area which is turned resistance once again.
Just recently we also had a bullish ema crossover, which is always considered a bullish sign, so from here I do expect a short term rejection away from the support zone and then the longer term continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe it seems like today's candle will close with a massive rejection wick, indicating selling pressure so it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term rejection away from this resistance area.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
$AAPL bearish inside bar?$AAPL continue to pull back along with other tech companies. after massive rally.
inflation is still high and consumer is start to spend their more strictly. despite the
high labor cost. most tech companies are started to reduce their labor force as they start
to feel the consumer spending their money carefully.
No big catalyst so far for AAPL about up coming product except the new upcoming iphone.
which is nothing new anymore for most consumer.
below is the price level I'm looking for $AAPL:
AAPL average price move per day is $2-6 per day depending on market volatility and catalyst.
Below is the price level I'm looking for entry and exit for AAPL:
Buy call above 146.64 and sell at 147.38+ or above
Buy puts below 145.02 and sell at 143.74 or below
sometimes, the fist 30 minute of the opening bell is always volatile.
you can catch the move there. or wait for an 1 hour for better cheaper price
after it pulls back.
make sure that you set up alerts on those key level so you wont miss the move.
and always to take your profits as you see one.
Apple -> Is This The Top?Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
From a weekly timeframe Apple stock just recently tested and already rejected a very obvious previous weekly resistance area which was turned resistance once again.
You can also see that we are having a bullish weekly ema crossover, however I personally think that we will retest the next support area at $135 before then creating the continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for a clear break and retest of the previous support zone which would then be turned resistance before I then do expect a next short term impulse towards the downside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
AAPL - short idea based on weekly chartsAAPL unable to overcome resistance - recent highs, Falling Window, sloping downtrend and this week a shooting star
Don't see too much support until start of 2023 rally around 130ish (target zone).
A weekly close above the recent highs line would negate my idea (158).
This is my first attempt at publishing a trade idea, Happy for any feedback, good or bad.
Finally not investment advice, just my take of the AAPL weekly chart. Please DYOR.
Sorry AAPL lovers - the STOCK is set to fall this week The AAPL stock has been moving up really nicely from 125 since the beginning of this year. Unfortunately it has come to a point where the market is telling us it has no energy to move up further.
Here is why the stock is set to go down.
1) There is strong resistance at 155.10 to 157.80
2) There is a triple top in H4 with divergence
3) RSI is overbought on H4 and D1.
The reality of another round of rate hikes in March (Perhaps another 0.5%) has also spooked the market. Inflation isn't abating with the last one being at 6.4% which was higher than the Fed and market expected so don't be surprised if we see a few weeks of weak stock market movements.
As for me, I will go short on the stock with stop losses above 165 and aim for the 125 price range.
AAPL pulls back, back to bearish move?$AAPL pulls back along with the market, just before President Biden speaks. on top of the power hour few minutes before the market close. aapl release
a news about laying off their contractors as part of mass tech layoffs. if you notice lately, most of the tech layoffs sometimes make positive effects on
company stocks. making it to bounce up from the bad news. In 1hr chart AAPL is entering the squeeze momentum. and it looks like it will continues to
pulls back tomorrow depending on the market conditions volatility.
AAPL average price move per day is $3 TO $4 per day depending on market volatility and catalyst.
Below is the price level I'm looking for entries and exit for AAPL
Buy call above 153.97 and sell at 155.49 or above
Buy puts below 152.59 and sell at 151.49 or below
make sure that you set up alerts on those key level so you wont miss the move.
and always to take your profits as you see one.
Another honorable mentions for bearish setups are semis:
$AMD , $QCOM, $TSM and $META
AAPL - Dont catch the falling KnifeThis is not an investment advice, please do your DD.
I think we are doing 2000 and 2008 again with a little twist. I expect a selloff until sometime in late February to mid March before we have a relief rally. A lot of people will say we have bottomed then but I think the real bottoming will be around November and that is probably when the fed will do its first rate cut as "inflation will no longer" be a problem. This will lead nicely to the election year and provide the catalyst for a new rally in all markets, crypto included (bitcoin halving in march 2024 or so) and will last for another 6 years before the final crash in all assets. Crypto, stocks, housing you name it will crash probably worse than 2008. The fed will step in again and will print the USD into oblivion but this time stimulus checks will be sent to your crypto wallet via US CBDC.
bearish on aaple short termwe are still not out of inflation, feds have predicted that this year will turn and we will be at a reasonable point, but we aren't there yet. that causes consumers to be on the savings side rather than buying for now. apple has a huge following, understood, but coming out with higher end phones at higher prices doesn't seem to make the most sense in the situation. people are getting less features for a higher price, with a better camera sure... i know im going to be ridiculed for being a green bubble on their phones but at least for the short term, doesn't seem like they have many "innovative" ideas that aren't already in other phones on the market. this is just my two cents. we're getting into folding screens, Samsung has DeX which allows users to have a desktop environment when plugged into a tv or monitor, or stream it over the air...
i will say, the processors that apple have been dishing out have been nothing but extraordinary, and the universal chips through iphone/ipad/macbook make the absolute most sense since they can massively cut down on cost and waste. all while on good silicon and providing very good battery life (as long as software doesnt bog it down)
short term... looking down, but i've always respected apple to keep in line with their audience and probably release some good numbers in the quarter coming with the M2 pro chip coming out
AAPL Hitting weekly resistance, a pullback is on the wayPrice pierced into the weekly resistance zone. This is a strong resistance zone. A considerable pullback is expected here before the next attempt to break this resistance.
If that expected pullback is there, the price will probably tap into this below weekly support and bounce from there.
AAPL Apple Options Ahead Of Earnings Last AAPL chart was pretty accurate:
Now looking at the AAPL Apple options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $140 strike price Puts with
2023-2-17 expiration date for about
$3.35 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AAPL not finished yetHey traders
Look at the chart, we had 178 and 128 oscillations for this season
after some touches, I guess bears can break it down to other lower at 100 $
I know, it will take some time, 115 can reduce the speed, but for mid tern scenario, that's the target, 100$
what u think ? share your thoughts and leave a comment
AAPL - Path to $75 Reaction Price Zone Cycle LowAAPL is one of the equities I’m watching closely to start turning on strategic dollar cost average for multi-year LONG positions.
I’ll update this idea as the story of the chart unfolds.
Highlights:
Multiple TA indicators from my trade system show 70-80 as the potential target for the current SHORT momentum move.
On the way there, multiple signals show 100-110 area being significant key psychological handle (100) with multiple high probable reaction zones. RDA, anchored vWap, key level in Value Channel.
The Daily chart is bias and momentum short with the recent momentum check reacting as we expect. The D chart is only helpful in a key level right around 104—which aligns with multiple areas covered in this idea.
Fundamental view: I’m interested in AAPL because I believe this entity will play a role in the next cycle of technology. Those areas of tech are VR, AR, AI, Robotics, and the merge of humans to technology. For this to happen, AAPL has to release 2-3 new product categories in the next 3 years. I believe the first to drop will be in the AR/VR market. Also, they must refresh the phone category in the next 3 years, I feel there needs to be a major leap in either functionality or design architecture.
Let’s get right to it and cover the highest probability reaction areas and interesting TA insight:
Anchored vWAP (green lines)
First up, as I write this, the ticker is reaching an anchored vWAP from a significant low of March 2020 short momentum move. At a minimum, I’d expect an upside reaction or a weak range to develop. That doesn’t appear to be happening yet.
The next significant low anchored vWAP comes from December 2018; this aligns with the 100 handle (right now around 104.00).
If the reaction doesn’t happen around the 120 handle I’d expect a multi-week LONG reaction from the area around 100-110.
The one the story of the chart tells me in play is the anchored vWAP comes from the low of 2016 – this is aligning right around $75. Remember this price as it will play a role in what I cover next.
Significant Value Channels
There are 3 significant value channels:
Recent Large VC
The first is the big one. The low: 2018 SHORT momentum move level. The High: ATH level defined in 1Q 2022. Here’s where a few things align:
The 50% of this channel is right around 109. This aligns almost perfectly with MONTHLY RDA (RexDog Average) and close to the anchored vWAP of 104 mentioned above. The other important level from this VC is right around 72. Remember this zone.
Inflection Value Channels
The next 2 value channels aren’t what we consider high-value areas but based on the story of the chart, are significant inflection areas that we expect reactions if price does enter those zones.
The first, 80-94 with a center price of about 86. The second, 57-80 with a mid-price of around 70 or so.
How do you TA this? Take the significant levels of both inflection points—69 to 87, making 78 the key area of reaction we’d expect from these two zones. So 78 area a key area.
Another key level that is clear is the high level created in JAN to FEB 2020 of 82.50 or so. If this area is tested we’d expect an overshoot of the level to the downside. Well within the percentage range of alignment of things I’ve already covered above.
My trade system reveals that AAPL is on a path to hit the $75-70 price area. Around this area is where I’d look to turn on daily purchases likely twice a day.
Here is a synopsis of those alignments (all outlined on chart):
2 inflection VCs key level: 78.
D key level from 2020: 82.50, if test, overshoot to below to 75 or so.
Overall VC key level at 72.
2016 aVWAP aligning at 75
Monthly top inflection level at: 76
As you can see there are quite a few RexDog Trade System probability areas aligning in this 70-80 range.
Path to Getting There
It’s not going to be an easy path. What is clear the 100-110 area is ripe for an upside, possibly multi-week LONG counter BIAS move. Those who trade or have adopted my system know exactly what to look for and the areas of reaction. It’s the momentum indicators and the RexDog Average Bias indicator.
It’s that simple really, the Daily and 4D chart provide these key indicators and levels. Don’t complicate something that is simple.
Possible Change of Outlook
This is simple as well. If the Daily chart flips momentum from SHORT to LONG, pay attention. If price recaptures and stays above the RDA around 140, pay attention. If price does make a run to these levels using the 60m chart for clues if it’s going to fail or hold will be key.
Also, I'm willing to miss the trade if the 100 handle area holds. If multi days close below the 100 handle then the 70-80 seems the likely area of cycle low.
Apple Breaking to Resistance?This is a weekly chart of Apple (AAPL) as measured relative to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
The chart has been arbitrarily adjusted in magnitude (x1000) to improve visibility of price movement.
One should always analyze an asset's performance relative to the performance of the broader index before choosing to invest. If an asset is underperforming the broader index, one would be better off just investing in the broader index than investing in the underperforming asset.
Few people may have known that, under the surface, Apple has been resisted downward since August 2020 in its chart relative to SPY. In other words, this means that since August 2020, even though the price of Apple has gone up it has generally not outperformed the SPY.
This weekly relative chart between Apple and SPY shows that Apple may be attempting a breakout relative to SPY. Even though Apple's charts look somewhat weak on the higher timeframes (3M, 6M, 12M), this chart may suggest that Apple will at least attempt a breakout in its performance relative to the SPY. The weekly candle closed above the resistance line, and the Stochastic RSI oscillator is showing strong upward momentum on the weekly timeframe. Additionally, the weekly exponential moving average (EMA) is creating an ascending triangle pattern with the resistance line (not shown on chart). In 75% of cases, an ascending triangle is a continuation pattern, which in the context of Apple would mean a bullish breakout.
It's important to realize that relative price charts like this do not necessarily predict price action. In other words, since this is a relative chart, Apple may break out in this chart, and yet its price actually falls. This can happen if the SPY is falling faster than Apple. The best time to use this kind of chart, therefore, is when you think the SPY has made a significant bottom and will rise. Rather than investing in the SPY as its price rebounds, why not amplify your returns by investing in an asset that is likely to outperform the SPY?
Some consider this a "seeking Alpha" approach. Alpha is a term used in investing to describe an investment strategy's ability to beat the market. Strategies that are able to generate greater alpha (or return relative to the market), without introducing greater risk to your portfolio will increase your Sharpe Ratio. In this case, Apple is slightly more volatile than SPY and therefore introduces slightly more risk than owning SPY. One can mitigate this by analyzing all of one's portfolio holdings relative to SPY and selling an underperforming asset that is also more volatile than SPY and then purchasing an asset, (like Apple), that is likely to outperform SPY and which is equally or less volatile than the sold asset.
For example, compare the below charts of T-Mobile US (TMUS) and Verizon (VZ). Both charts are quarterly charts (3-month charts) and are relative to SPY. Relative price action for the past 10 years is shown. (Neither chart is adjusted for dividends). Although TMUS is slightly more volatile, it is generally in line with VZ. If given the choice between the two, which would you rather add to your portfolio?
T-Mobile US (TMUS) trending toward infinity relative to SPY:
Verizon (VZ) trending toward zero relative to SPY:
Not investment advice.