#SPX500 8.5 YEAR EXPANDING FLATThe market moves in waves and patterns. This is a macro expanding flat on the #SPX500 that corrected for 8.5 years!
During the A and C wave of the expanding flat, there were so called "recessions", the 2002 and 2008 recessions.
Or were they just A and C waves of a macro expanding flat?
It is interesting how the patterns a chart makes predicts the future of reality on a macro level.
The rules for an expanding flat is that the top of the B wave pops above the top of the preceding impulse and the bottom of the C wave pops below the low of the A wave.
It is at that moment you can start to look for buys for an expanding flat and hold on to an extension of the impulse!
ABC
Short Idea for BTCUSDT (bar pattern)
The impulse wave and megaphone on a higher candle TF is printing something similar on a smaller time frame, i pasted it down to scale for a better observation.
I think the 31st of march will determine trend direction based on if its going to play out the last part of the wave: the ABC leg down, see for reference the blue vertical line.
Weekend is notorious for baiting retail. Expect the opposite to usually play out tues-thurs when market makers come out to play.
I do think the head and shoulders seen below will play out, sending price to my target stated above, around 30-31k. An inverse head and shoulders pattern has a measured move equal to the distance from the lowest point in the pattern to the neckline projected from the neckline. see orange Xs and red vertical lines
ABC Weekly opportunity coming soonAmerisourceBergen is a pharma company with superb growth and financials. Healthcare sector has been deeply sold off. This is a strong trending stock on the weekly (see 52 week EMA Red line). I look to add a small starter position at 154.46, the Gann Confluence Line. Will add another position should it reach either the 52 Week EMA or a RSI (12) weekly of 39 - 40. Currently RSI(12) is 46.49.
Gold ForecastGold Forecast
Gold is in a bullish cycle, and we will look for long opportunities when we see a clear 3 legs-down corrective structure. Unfortunately, the connector (B) of the current (A)(B)(C) is too shallow and it does not retrace enough according to our strategy to allow us to enter when the price reaches the IZ (grey zone). We do expect the price will bounce from the IZ, but it can be only the connector from a deeper (W)(X)(Y), so we are not going to take this trade.
What to do? 2 scenarios:
-The prices resume the bullish cycle ->We should wait for the price to break the 1,960 level before looking for buying opportunities.
-The price makes a deeper correction-> A new IZ will be created, and we will analyze its structure to check whether it is tradable or not.
In any case, we will keep you updated on the TRS community
Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
ABC with bullish flagInstrument: ABC
Chart pattern: Bullish Flag
Optimal technical indicator: EMA CROSS 200_100
Current signal of optimal tech indicator: LONG
Optimal technical indicator win-rate: 50%
Days for backtesting: 2220
Timeframe for backtesting: 1D
Price at the time of forecast: 161,4300
Enter point: on chart
Take-profit: on chart
Stop-loss: on chart
Current model trailing stop-loss: 159,9028
Multiple for stop-loss strategy in model: ATR(14) x 0,6
Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 3
Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 7
Average profit per 1 trade: 0,39%
Projected annual return w/o leverage: 14,6%
Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 43%
Technical analysis recommendations:
Long: 35%
Short: 61%
Neutral: 4%
Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.3K technical strategies
ABC showing mixed signals target $153.16Descending Triangle has clearly formed on Daily.
The price has broken below the neckline (just waiting for confirmation)
RSI<50 (Red)
Target $153.16
Concerns:
The American stock exchanges and the companies are heading up with the January Effect, the weakening dollar (I know it's unusual) and with China's policy with the Covid restrictions easing - bring new hope for the economy.
The Moving Averages are still up and price is above the 200MA.
But as we know, the 200MA acts as an elastic band. So price gravitates usually back to it.
I am cautiously pessimistic with ABC and the short bias is strong than the long bias.
Medium probability trade.
Gold has already started the new bullish cycleMedium-term Gold forecast.
The corrective cycle that started 2 years ago has finally ended, and we have already started the new bullish cycle. This cycle is wave 5 (orange) and is expected to reach at least the 2,100 level.
We bought Gold when the price was in the Inflection Zone (green area). At this moment, we are risk-free and waiting for the confirmation of the bullish sequence to try to enter again, targeting smaller timeframes corrective cycles.
We will keep you posted when this opportunity appears.
Have a fantastic trading day.