ABC
XAUUSD SYMMETRY TRADING ABC BEARISH PATTERN
XAUUSD has formed an ABC bearish pattern on its hourly chart.
The price is trading the EL: 1999.58.
ST: 2009.75
Targets:
62% AB: 1960.21
79% AB: 1946.73
127% AB: 1908.39
162% AB: 1880.82
One of the best ways to confirm symmetry in the markets is to check price and time using two or more cluster confirmations. Another key method to compute these patterns is to use percentage change of price between market highs and market lows. Symmetry is a science by itself, and traders take great advantage of knowing the potential turning points and levels using these methods.One of the best ways to confirm symmetry in the markets is to check price and time using two or more cluster confirmations. Another key method to compute these patterns is to use percentage change of price between market highs and market lows. Symmetry is a science by itself, and traders take great advantage of knowing the potential turning points and levels using these methods.
Symmetry is visible in all markets and in all time-frames. Symmetric rallies and declines give traders an advantage to determine the key turning points. A cluster of similar extensions and similar retracements at key price ranges, or some important levels provide insights into future significant resistance and support levels. In addition to knowing key turning points, the benefits of trading symmetric price and time cluster levels include low-risk trades.
The ABC Chart pattern bellow…
and its related AB=CD Chart Pattern bellow…
are prime examples of "Symmetry" in the markets. These "Harmonic" patterns help traders to identify buying and selling opportunities in all markets and in all time-frames. The ABC and AB=CD patterns are first described by H.M. Gartley in his book 'Profits in the Stock Market." (1935). The main advantages of trading harmonic patterns are that they allow traders to determine risk vs. reward ratios beforehand as they forecast key market turning points and profit targets for traders. The ABC pattern (can be a continuous or reversal pattern)
The key point in identifying an ABC and AB=CD patterns is to correctly detect the A, B, and C key inflection (Pivot) points in a chart while they are forming. These inflection points are determined from key swing highs and lows of various levels, and for its correction waves to determine distinct "swings." The potential C point is usually forecasted by the fib. retracements (0.38 to 0.618) of AB Swing. Once A, B, and C points (and AB, BC legs) are identified, a projection algorithm is applied to compute the Potential Completion Zone (PCZ). This PCZ area is where ABC pattern is expected to complete and may signal continuation of its trend in the first trend direction (AB). Following the completion of BC leg, the projections of AB and BC legs (using fib. ratios)
The swing legs (AB and BC) in ABC pattern are generally in symmetrical proportions both in price and time with consistent slopes. The tractable CD leg has a harmonic relation with symmetry for AB and BC swings. The ABC bullish structures are formed after a prolonged prior down trend or consolidation trends.
A Pattern Completion Zone (PCZ) is computed using AB swing and Fibonacci ratios (50-88.6% of AB). This PCZ area is where 'C' pivot is formed at the end of BC swing and to signal completion of ABC pattern.
ABC Bullish Example
ABC Bearish EXample
Trade Entry:
After ABC pattern is completed, it is advisable to wait for the pattern to confirm a reversal signal using any momentum-based indicator or price confirmation mechanisms. I use various confirmation and trade entry methods, but one of the methods is price crossing 2-bar high after 'C' in ABC Bullish pattern or a 2-bar low after 'C' in ABC bearish pattern.
Stop:
A Stop is placed few ticks below C (in Bullish) or few ticks above C (in Bearish) levels.
Examples of entries and stops :
Targets:
The ABC Pattern targets are computed using the AB and BC swings. The height pattern (AB) is used to project target levels from (-level using fib. ratios. The first target zone is (62-79% AB) from 'C' and second target zone is (127-162% AB). A secondary target level is set at 100% AB Level .
Examples of Targets:
TRADE CHARTS PATTERNS LIKE THE PROS
5 GOLDEN RULES
1: The Trade Setup
The setup is the basic conditions that need to be present in order to even consider a trade. For example, if you're a charts patterns trader, then a pattern needs to be present. Your trading plan should define what a tradable chart pattern is (for your strategy). This will help you avoid trading when a chart pattern isn't there. Think of the "setup" as your reason for trading.
2: The Trade Trigger
If your reason for trading is present, you still need a precise event that tells you now is the time to trade
There are various methos using a trigger.
A Price action
B Moving averages
C Fibonacci
D 2 bar low/high
3: The Stop Loss
Having the right conditions for entry and knowing your trade trigger isn't enough to produce a good trade. The risk on that trade must also be managed with a stop-loss order. There are multiple ways to place a stop loss. For long trades, a stop loss is often placed just slightly below a recent swing low and for a short trade just slightly above a recent swing high.
Step 4: The Price Target
You now know that conditions are favourable for a trade, as well as where the entry point and stop loss will go. Next, consider the profit potential.
A profit target is based on something measurable and not just randomly chosen. Chart patterns, for example, provide targets based on the size of the pattern. Trend channels show where the price has had a tendency to reverse; if buying near the bottom of the channel, set a price target near the top of the channel.
5: The Reward-to-Risk
Strive to take trades only where the profit potential is greater than 1.5 times the risk. For example, losing $100 if the price reaches your stop loss means you should be making HKEX:150 or more if the target price is reached.
Other Considerations
The five-step test acts as a filter so that you're only taking trades that align with your strategy, ensuring that these trades provide good profit potential relative to the risk. Add in other steps to suit your trading style. For example, day traders may wish to avoid taking positions right before major economic numbers or a company's earnings are released. In this case, to take a trade, check the economic calendar and make sure no such events are scheduled for while you're likely to be in the trade.
The Bottom Line
Make sure conditions are suitable for trading a particular strategy. Set a trigger that tells you now is the time to act. Set a stop loss and target, and then determine if the reward outweighs the risk. If it does, take the trade; if it doesn't, look for a better opportunity. Consider other factors that may affect your trading, and implement additional steps if require.
This may seem like a tedious process, yet once you know your strategy and get used to the steps, it should take only a few seconds to run through the entire list.
ABC - Similar Hourly Patterns An up channel on ABC shows similar 1,2,3 points.
With 3 being the extension to the top of the channel
Another pattern count analysis I will link the chart for this below.
GBPUSD: Pullback in short term?The main trend remains bullish but in short term a corrective structure is possible to appear on hourly chart (ABC Pattern). If this analysis is correct, a bullish consolidation is still possible, but if this happens it should be considered part of a corrective structure.
Note: Updates will follow below.
Trade with care!
Like if my analysis is useful.
Cheers!
#SPX500 8.5 YEAR EXPANDING FLATThe market moves in waves and patterns. This is a macro expanding flat on the #SPX500 that corrected for 8.5 years!
During the A and C wave of the expanding flat, there were so called "recessions", the 2002 and 2008 recessions.
Or were they just A and C waves of a macro expanding flat?
It is interesting how the patterns a chart makes predicts the future of reality on a macro level.
The rules for an expanding flat is that the top of the B wave pops above the top of the preceding impulse and the bottom of the C wave pops below the low of the A wave.
It is at that moment you can start to look for buys for an expanding flat and hold on to an extension of the impulse!
Short Idea for BTCUSDT (bar pattern)
The impulse wave and megaphone on a higher candle TF is printing something similar on a smaller time frame, i pasted it down to scale for a better observation.
I think the 31st of march will determine trend direction based on if its going to play out the last part of the wave: the ABC leg down, see for reference the blue vertical line.
Weekend is notorious for baiting retail. Expect the opposite to usually play out tues-thurs when market makers come out to play.
I do think the head and shoulders seen below will play out, sending price to my target stated above, around 30-31k. An inverse head and shoulders pattern has a measured move equal to the distance from the lowest point in the pattern to the neckline projected from the neckline. see orange Xs and red vertical lines
ABC Weekly opportunity coming soonAmerisourceBergen is a pharma company with superb growth and financials. Healthcare sector has been deeply sold off. This is a strong trending stock on the weekly (see 52 week EMA Red line). I look to add a small starter position at 154.46, the Gann Confluence Line. Will add another position should it reach either the 52 Week EMA or a RSI (12) weekly of 39 - 40. Currently RSI(12) is 46.49.
Gold ForecastGold Forecast
Gold is in a bullish cycle, and we will look for long opportunities when we see a clear 3 legs-down corrective structure. Unfortunately, the connector (B) of the current (A)(B)(C) is too shallow and it does not retrace enough according to our strategy to allow us to enter when the price reaches the IZ (grey zone). We do expect the price will bounce from the IZ, but it can be only the connector from a deeper (W)(X)(Y), so we are not going to take this trade.
What to do? 2 scenarios:
-The prices resume the bullish cycle ->We should wait for the price to break the 1,960 level before looking for buying opportunities.
-The price makes a deeper correction-> A new IZ will be created, and we will analyze its structure to check whether it is tradable or not.
In any case, we will keep you updated on the TRS community
Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
ABC with bullish flagInstrument: ABC
Chart pattern: Bullish Flag
Optimal technical indicator: EMA CROSS 200_100
Current signal of optimal tech indicator: LONG
Optimal technical indicator win-rate: 50%
Days for backtesting: 2220
Timeframe for backtesting: 1D
Price at the time of forecast: 161,4300
Enter point: on chart
Take-profit: on chart
Stop-loss: on chart
Current model trailing stop-loss: 159,9028
Multiple for stop-loss strategy in model: ATR(14) x 0,6
Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 3
Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 7
Average profit per 1 trade: 0,39%
Projected annual return w/o leverage: 14,6%
Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 43%
Technical analysis recommendations:
Long: 35%
Short: 61%
Neutral: 4%
Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.3K technical strategies
ABC showing mixed signals target $153.16Descending Triangle has clearly formed on Daily.
The price has broken below the neckline (just waiting for confirmation)
RSI<50 (Red)
Target $153.16
Concerns:
The American stock exchanges and the companies are heading up with the January Effect, the weakening dollar (I know it's unusual) and with China's policy with the Covid restrictions easing - bring new hope for the economy.
The Moving Averages are still up and price is above the 200MA.
But as we know, the 200MA acts as an elastic band. So price gravitates usually back to it.
I am cautiously pessimistic with ABC and the short bias is strong than the long bias.
Medium probability trade.
Gold has already started the new bullish cycleMedium-term Gold forecast.
The corrective cycle that started 2 years ago has finally ended, and we have already started the new bullish cycle. This cycle is wave 5 (orange) and is expected to reach at least the 2,100 level.
We bought Gold when the price was in the Inflection Zone (green area). At this moment, we are risk-free and waiting for the confirmation of the bullish sequence to try to enter again, targeting smaller timeframes corrective cycles.
We will keep you posted when this opportunity appears.
Have a fantastic trading day.