All signs point down..Using the trend web analysis method, we already identified the first the drop (thanks @DianKemala), and now, by measuring trends, angles, and time cycles, we can get an approximate value and time line for this correction. It's not just one piece of evidence that leads to the conclusion, but multiple.. please follow my thought process below:
1. EW Impulse from 1 to 5 identified on the 4H chart. Each period is measured:
1 = 58 days
2 = 14 days
3 = 78 days
4 = 36 days
5 = 47 days
2. What's important here is the corrective waves 2 and 4. If we superimpose 14 days right after wave 5, we see that it lands exactly at the end of wave A of the bigger corrective ABC. If we follow it by 36 days (wave 4), we got an approximate date on the end of the bigger ABC correction (mid to end of 3rd week of October).
3. Next, is the height of smaller wave C in the bigger wave 4 : if we superimpose this height on the trend line of major ABC correction, and we know where our bigger wave C will end (more on that later), then we can determine approximately when the bigger wave C will begin (end of this week, 29th to 1st)
4. We can also use the time it took to finish smaller wave B and C to calculate the length of time to complete bigger wave B and C. Marked by horizontal red line. Here, I am assuming that the time cycles are the same, but amplitude of the wave is increasing.
5. I measured trend lines across the waves and measured the trend angle:
0 to 1 -> 4 degrees
exponential parellel channel trend line -> 7 degrees
2 to 4 -> 10 degrees
April 15th drop to 4 -> 13 degrees (notable low)
4 to major A leg -> 25 degrees
Now, this all sounds like a coincidence, but lets do a bit of math on equation x = 3n+4 , where x is angle of the trend line
n=0 , x=4
n=1 , x=7
n=2 , x=10
n=3 , x=13
n=4 , x=16
n=5 , x=19
n=6 , x=22
n=7 , x=25
See something? Since the long term trend in bullish, and there for we are moving in a general upward direction, I have assumed that the next bounce from wave 4 to major wave C, should be at n=4 or 16 degrees. Why not 19 or 22 degrees? Well the drop couldn't be shorter than the length of the previous drop of smaller BC in wave 4. This left me with only one option which was 16 degrees.
When I draw this trend line at this angle, it hits exactly all three points and a couple of trendlines as well. This gives a bit more confidence that I'm thinking in the right direction.
6. There are also two possibilities that came out, one is at price point $1970 which is 38.2% of long term fib, and the other is at the 23.6% of the long term fib where many trendlines are converging in a web ($1259). If the 50% of the impulse wave correction doesn't hold we can see those levels.
7. Of course, on top of all this, the RSI is also showing clear signs that we are still in a correction and we still have some more down movement to go.
Please feel free to comment and like.
BT
