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AB=CD

Where Could Bitcoin Make Its Cycle Top? Model and ABCD AlignedWith the breakout above resistance around 110,000, Bitcoin’s rally appears to be back on track. If you've been following our crypto analysis, either here or on our website, you’ll know our target range for this bull cycle is between 135,000 and 150,000, with the top of the range possibly extending further depending on the strength of the final wave. Now, a possible ABCD pattern is forming, with point D potentially landing at either 135,000 or 150,000. A coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. How Did We Arrive at the 135K–150K Target? We based this range on historical halving cycle returns: Halving Year - Return to Cycle Top 2012 - 9,076% 2016 - 2,122% (↓ 4.27x) 2020 - 541% (↓ 3.92x) Two things stand out: Each cycle has shown diminishing returns. The rate of decline appears roughly consistent, dropping by around 4x each time—but slightly less with each cycle. So depending on the multiplier used: If returns fall by 4.27x again → target: 135K If reduced by 4x → target: 140K If reduced by 3.92x → target: 142K If the rate of reduction itself slows (difference of 0.35 between 4.27 and 3.92) → target: 150K While the sample size is too small, we believe the model holds reasonable logic with fundamental backing from various metrics. The chart now shows a possible ABCD pattern: If it becomes a classic AB = CD structure, point D could form near 135K. If it becomes an extended ABCD (with CD = AB × 1.272), then point D could reach just above 150K. These technical targets align closely with our halving model projections, increasing our confidence in the 135K–150K range as a likely top zone for this cycle. Also, please check our earlier post for possible altseason start. A correlation between BTC/ETH and Gold/Silver might give some tips about possible Ether surge.
Long
by ftdsystem
Bond Bulls Smell Blood: 20-Year Yields Likely to Fall🧩 Fundamental Bear Case for 20-Year Yields 1. Recession Risk and Slowing Growth Leading economic indicators (e.g., ISM Manufacturing, Conference Board LEI) continue to suggest softening demand across key sectors. A recession or significant slowdown would drive capital into long-duration Treasuries, causing yields to fall as bond prices rise. Historically, 20-year yields fall 200–300bps from cycle peaks during recessions. With yields near 5%, there is ample downside room. 2. Federal Reserve Policy Pivot The Fed’s hiking cycle appears to be at or near its terminal point. Rate cuts in 2025 are increasingly priced in, especially as inflation moderates. If inflation continues to decelerate toward the Fed’s 2% target while growth slows, the Fed may be forced to ease sooner or more aggressively than expected. Long-duration bonds, including the 20Y, are highly sensitive to forward rate expectations and would benefit from a dovish pivot. 3. Disinflationary Trends Core inflation metrics (e.g., Core PCE, Core CPI) are in year-over-year decline. Key disinflationary forces: Wage pressures have eased as labor markets normalize. Housing costs, which lag in CPI data, are projected to fall further. Supply chain normalization continues post-COVID. These factors reduce the need for elevated long-term yields, especially with inflation expectations anchored. 4. Supply-Demand Dynamics Favor Treasuries Despite large Treasury issuance, global demand remains strong: Foreign buyers (e.g., Japan, EU) seek higher yields as their home rates remain low or negative. U.S. institutions (pensions, insurance funds) are rebalancing into risk-free long bonds amid equity volatility. A risk-off rotation or broader de-leveraging cycle would only accelerate this demand. 🔍 Technical Summary Rising wedge pattern is nearing a potential breakdown — a bearish structure signaling exhaustion. Price is failing to reclaim the previous uptrend channel, now acting as resistance. A completed harmonic AB=CD pattern near recent highs suggests a mean-reverting move could be imminent. Closest technical targets include: 4.33% (23.6% Fib) 3.68% (38.2% Fib) Possibly even 3.16% (50% retracement) over the next 6–12 months if macro weakness persists. 📌 Bottom Line The combination of: Cooling inflation A Fed pivot on the horizon Rising recession risk And technical exhaustion signals Supports a bearish outlook for 20-year yields, meaning bond prices (especially long-duration instruments like TMF or TLT) could appreciate meaningfully from here.
TVC:US20YShort
by JoshuaDanford
Long-term bullish action on Silver?I touched on the longer-term price action of Spot Silver (XAG/USD) last week, showing that the unit is on track to shake hands with a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) of a monthly harmonic bat pattern between US$46.79 and US$42.68. Keeping things aligned with the harmonic landscape, you will note that H1 price action recently printed an AB=CD bullish pattern at US$38.87 (100% projection ratio), set just north of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio of US$38.75. While the H1 chart is generally considered short-term in nature, you may find that given we have longer-term flow suggesting scope for additional outperformance, short-term dip-buyers may consider holding a portion of their long positions open in an attempt to catch some of the possible longer-term upside.
FPMARKETS:XAGUSDLong
by FPMarkets
MUBARAKUSDT: Mid-Term Analysis🕌 MUBARAKUSDT Analysis I think you can find a buyer from the blue box I’ve marked. 📍 Plan If price comes into the blue box: ✅ Watch for footprint absorption (buyers holding the level) ✅ Look for CDV support or bullish divergence ✅ Wait for structure reclaim to confirm entry ⚡ Reminder No chasing, no guessing. If the setup aligns, take the trade with clear risk. If not, let it go. Stay patient. The right price, or no trade. 📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. 📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. 📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge. 🔑I have a long list of my proven technique below: 🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total 🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction 🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction 📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely 📊 XNOUSDT %80 Reaction with a Simple Blue Box! 📊 BELUSDT Amazing %120 Reaction! 📊 Simple Red Box, Extraordinary Results 📊 TIAUSDT | Still No Buyers—Maintaining a Bearish Outlook 📊 OGNUSDT | One of Today’s Highest Volume Gainers – +32.44% 📊 TRXUSDT - I Do My Thing Again 📊 FLOKIUSDT - +%100 From Blue Box! 📊 SFP/USDT - Perfect Entry %80 Profit! 📊 AAVEUSDT - WE DID IT AGAIN! I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
Long
by UmutTrades
BTC: What if the real bull run is just beginning?🚀 BTC/USD – Weekly buy signal on the way? 📈 EMA 7 / SMA 20 crossover validated on a weekly basis ✅ Long-term bullish trend ⏸️ Short-term trend neutral In my opinion, a bullish continuation in the long-term remains possible, particularly via an AB = CD structure for patient investors. Of course, in small time frames, volatility will be present, but the underlying trend remains positive. 📌 Pivotal zone to break: 104,432 – 109,396 USD ➡️ A break of this resistance would provide a real boost to the bullish trend. Next? Let's close our eyes... and let the position run. ⚠️ Analysis for educational purposes – not financial advice. 💬 Do you believe this weekly signal? Or are you staying on the sidelines for now?
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Yannick1961
2
Dow offering buyers much to work with!The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) is clearly trending higher, pencilling in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Supporting this trend is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 42,816 crossing above the 200-day SMA at 42,749; this is referred to as a ‘Golden Cross’ and suggests a longer-term uptrend may be on the table. This, coupled with the recent ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish formation (1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) completing at support from 43,877, has already seen buyers step in (with stops potentially located south of the 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio of 43,637). The next upside objective from here rests around resistance at 45,058, closely shadowed by the all-time high of 45,073. Written by the FP Markets Research Team
TVC:DJILong
by FPMarkets
1
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Potential Move from $43,600 to $120,000Description: Based on the current weekly chart analysis for Bitcoin / Tether Standard Futures (BTCUSDT), there is a significant potential for Bitcoin to move from $43,600 to $120,000. Below are the key points observed: Current Price: Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $54,806.45, down by 5.75%. Elliott Wave Analysis: The chart indicates a potential ABC correction pattern. Wave A has completed, and Bitcoin is currently in Wave B, which suggests an upcoming bullish Wave C. Support and Resistance Levels: The primary support level is at $39,987.31. The significant resistance level and target is the area around $120,000. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 38.2% Retracement: $31,145.00 50.0% Retracement: $23,356.00 61.8% Retracement: $15,568.00 Indicators: RSI shows potential bullish divergence indicating a possible upward move. Volume profile indicates strong accumulation in the lower price ranges. Extrem Buy Alert: The chart highlights an "EXTREM BUY ALERT," suggesting that the current levels could be a significant buying opportunity before the expected upward move. Chart Details: Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Ticker: BTCUSDT.PS Exchange: Binance Disclaimer: This analysis is based on historical data and technical indicators. It is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
Long
by Loveiceroollss
2
Bitcoin Makes New ATH – Next Sequence in Play 🚀 CRYPTO:BTCUSD has officially broken into new all-time highs, confirming the next bullish sequence is underway. The upside projection now opens toward the $135K–$144K zone, aligning with long-term Fibonacci extensions and cycle projections. 📌 As always, it won’t be a straight line—expect step-by-step progress, with consolidations and pullbacks along the way. But the structure remains bullish, and the path is unfolding.
Long
by AlienOvichO
Brace Yourselves: EURAUD’s Harmonic Storm Is Coming!Good morning, Traders ☀️ I've identified a bullish harmonic Bat pattern on the EURAUD pair. At this stage, I'm only anticipating a reactional buy from the marked zone. I'll determine my target level after observing the market's response from that area. 📌 I’ll be sharing the target details under this post once the reaction unfolds. Your likes and support are what keep me motivated to share these analyses consistently. Huge thanks to everyone who shows love and appreciation! 🙏
by TraderTilki
6
Another Home Run Trade? Risky & Conservative ApproachesFollowing up a MASSIVE win on the OANDA:EURJPY we may now have a similar trading opportunity setting up on the OANDA:GBPJPY The premise is the same for this one as we're looking at a potential violation of structure followed by a Bullish continuation setup. In this video, we'll look at where we think price can extend to, what needs to happen before we can make that prediction, and both a risky and conservative technique to get involved in the move. Please let me know how you would approach this setup! Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
2
BSE - BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED !"Buy the fear, sell on greed" is an investment strategy that means you should buy assets when most investors are scared and selling (during periods of fear), and sell those assets when most investors are excited and buying (during periods of greed). Why does this work? ⦁ When fear dominates the market, prices often drop below their true value because people panic and sell at low prices. This creates opportunities for disciplined investors to buy quality assets at a discount. ⦁ When greed takes over, prices often rise above their real worth because people are eager to buy, hoping for quick gains. This is usually a good time to sell, as the risk of a downturn increases. How do emotions affect markets? ⦁ Fear leads to panic selling, causing prices to fall further and often locking in losses for those who sell at the bottom. ⦁ Greed leads to speculative buying, driving prices higher and sometimes creating bubbles that eventually burst. Why is it hard to follow? ⦁ While the idea is simple, it is emotionally difficult to buy when everyone else is pessimistic and selling, or to sell when everyone else is optimistic and buying. Most people act on emotion rather than logic, which is why few consistently succeed with this approach. Practical example: During a market crash, negative news and panic cause many to sell at low prices. A disciplined investor who buys during this fear can benefit when the market recovers. Conversely, when markets are booming and everyone is rushing to buy, selling at this point can help lock in gains before a potential correction. Key takeaway: This strategy is about removing emotion from investing decisions and taking a contrarian approach—buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy—rather than following the crowd. This approach has been used by successful investors like Warren Buffett to achieve long-term success by focusing on value and maintaining emotional discipline.
NSE:BSE
by thetradeforecast