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Abcpattern

US 30 in ABC correction: A Bull Trap; expect Lower soon!Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful. Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear! Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the intermediate wave, thus a strong double wave effect will likely terminate the countertrend positive corrective wave (4) near 23,300. (Marked by Pincher arrows) Wave 4 may not rise above wave 1, which terminated at 23824, this yields a cap on 4th wave rally. Wave 5 will be stunning and terrifying. Bulls that thought it was all over will panic and despair. Traders who short puts will be wiped out. An estimate of termination for Primary Wave 5 from Fib extensions yields Dow 19072 at the 1.618 extension. An extension lower is certainly possible. The Fib spiral for intermediate Wave (3) reveals expected floor for (5) at 20542, for a 1.272 extension, and also curtails the subsequent, expected 4th Primary Wave rally to near 22700, at Fib time projection near 19-21 Feb 2019. Do not be long in this market! Do not start selling puts for income! I wouldn't sell either puts OR calls short in this market, odds are you will get scared into big losses on both sides. Be patient; be careful! Stay away and save trading capital if in doubt. Risk:Reward very poor right now, risk very high, reward likely low. As always, this post for education and amusement only and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
Possible Downtrend AMDHi Guys! Look for this upward channel usually this chart pattern is a continuation for the downside and not for upside. If I have to take this trade I will take it from 26 to have a better RISK:REWARD To have a high probality on this trade we need to see price action that show buyers aren't in control of the market,you can use oscillators to help you (MACD divergence) If we see strong impulsive move (BIG CANDELS) we watch for correction on lower time frame than we decide.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by YBearBull
3
USDISK´s ABC correction?So far, as for 24.11.18 USDISK rapid rise was hold by 0.61 Fibonacci retracement which is a great sign. It has been hovering below that level for days. We had a fine 1-5 Elliot waves cycle on monthly and what we are seeing now is very likely to be ABC correction of that cycle. Usually, ABC correction retraces to 0.61 level. If current month (we have 7 days left) closes below that level, the next months, we should see a drop down along the Ichimoku cloud. If November candle closes above 0.61 level, it will be very disturbing for Iceland´s economy, as ISK´s devaluation will continue.
Short
by ICFX
SPY Complex Correction In ProgressWe thought the downdraft in October marked "ABC" on chart was the correction. But... We got another pivot at the .62 Fibo, where B turned, now X turned again. Looks like we got a larger WXY wave. ABC was the W that formed first bottom. If this pattern completes, expect -33 on the ABC leg to approximate the X-Y leg. This would put Sand P down around 252. For starters. Let's see how it plays. In my humble opine, we are entering bear market, started 4 October. Sorry! This isn't advice, it's a half-baked idea, trade at your own risk and good luck!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
4
US Equities in ABC Correction: SPX Starting up 'B' LegLast week's downleg was too deep and overlapping previous waves to be a '4'; the high on 29 Aug at 2916 was therefore the end of a (v); and we are in an ABC down trend. The pattern is more evident in US 30- see related post. Here Sand P formed a narrow descending chop channel, tightly defined, which appears to have found a bottom around 2864-2870. Fibo 0.618 for a popup brings us back to 2896, about 20 pts below the high price of 2816. Could it bull higher? Of course, it can always get higher; John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." But this is a correction countertrend reaction, not an actionary bullish impulse. 'B' will peter out rather quickly, I imagine. Doubtful whether it will get above the 2916 high. This is not advice, it's a fun educational post. Good luck.
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
Will the Downward Momentum Bring New Lows?In this idea we are focusing on the daily time frame and the broader price structure. First a quick note on the recent drammatic 1000+ point drop from the $7450+ highs. As other traders have mentioned, these markets are extremely dangerous to trade on margin, unless you’re coming in and out for a quick 1-2%. There is just too much risk of a short or long squeeze that is almost guaranteed to trigger your stops, assuming you’ve set them. If you can avoid trading these markets on margin you have much more ability to weather the volatile whale stop-hunting price storms. There were so many bull move fake-outs promising to break $7.5k that if you didn't have your short stops triggered, count yourself among the lucky (or crazy) ones. Several patterns have emerged on the broader time scale, including local highs that touch the sweeping green arc as it approaches the long-term trend line. What’s interesting about this arc is that we can actually call it a Fibonacci arc, as each subsequent high retraces to almost exactly 0.618 the previous high, and touches a point precisely on this arc. There is also a strong upper resistance line in yellow that the recent bull wave nearly touched and then retreated from. One of the difficulties in tracking the recent bull wave was the lack of an obvious ABC correction in the previous bear wave. Was the recent bull wave a bull-trap B wave of an ABC correction, or a full-fledged bull impulse wave? It’s still a little unclear, as the previous bear trend had no real counter-correction. But I’ve chosen to label this recent bull wave as the B wave of an ABC correction, since it didn’t reach up to the Fibonacci arc, as previous bull waves did. This B wave is a little larger than previous B waves, but it is still well within the requirements of Elliott Wave ABC corrections, retracing exactly 0.618 of the A wave. Also, the ABC corrections for each bull wave have C wave extensions of approx. 0.618 across the board. If we extrapolate these patterns, we might expect a C wave extension around the $5850 price region for the next low, the same as the previous low. However, each previous low has either touched or come very close to touching the lower yellow support line, so we might expect the same to happen again. This would mean a lower low around the $5600 price region. Interestingly, this is the first time that three things will intersect: 1. Lower yellow support line 2. Green long-term trend line (extremely strong support) 3. C wave 0.618+ fib. extension of AB wave Additionally, the time frame for the last cycle, from low to low was 84 days. And if the above targets are correct, then the next low would have a similar duration from the previous low, placing it somewhere around Sept. 15, 2018. Given these considerations, a target in the mid $5k’s could be expected in the medium term, before we begin the next bull cycle. Though it appears that the bull cycles are getting smaller with each iteration, they will likely continue until we reach some terminal limit and a final breakout above the green Fibonacci arc occurs. A break-out to the downside seems too unlikely. Target: $5.4k-$5.6k
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by dalmazio
7