Get started

Abcpattern

US 30 IN ABC CORRECTION MINOR WAVE OF LARGER ZIGZAGUS 30 traded below Tuesday high of 25888, closing 98 points lower than 8/21 high, failing to confirm Sand P new alltime high on 8/24. The zig-zag pattern is evident on chart. I marked this one as a more complex ABC structure as a 5 wave reaction (ABCDE) is evident in A wave. Combined with bearish Gartley pattern confirmed 8/21, this latest rally attempt looks more like a B reactionary wave. Expect lower soon. I wondered about this as puts I bought 8/21 above 25800 were still trading near my purchase price on 8/24, in spite of wild bullishness in Sand P, which was nice, but made me think; "Hey why is Dow not keeping up and acts like stuck at 25800? Hmmm..." This is a bear flag, resolving into final C wave soon. Will be pretty rough I'm afraid- be careful! September is coming! Look out. Good luck! This is not investment advice it's just a fun post for education and ridicule. Enjoy!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
SPX in possible WXY correction reaching new closing high on 'X'Folks, We got blindsided by a surprise bull run Friday 8/24 which seemed so unlikely I was horrified and amazed all at once. In retrospect, some sort of rally was to be expected off the Thursday low prices, and I hedged my bets in case, but this was quite bullish indeed. In spite of making a new high closing price on Sand P, US 30 did not confirm the high today, closing 98 points below its Tuesday high of 25888. So what it appears we have is a vigorous reactionary countertrend wave 'B' or 'X', better, since this corrective minor wave lacks ABC complexity. We have seen all the usual candles tokening corrections; shooting stars, pin bars, engulfing bears, etc. These signals all indicate index is at or near high. What can we expect? Perhaps a tad higher intraday and another shooting star Monday, then lower again. It is a zigzag within a zigzag inside a larger zigzag. Just another bull trap, I reckon. Good luck! As always, this is not investment advice, it's purely for education and your amusement.
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
US 30 Rejected from Channel Trendline; in-day H&S, Shooting StarExpect gap down and significantly lower based on very bearish futures in PM. C wave beginning- soon. It might be very strong b/c it's a combo of primary ABC from Feb cycle and an intermediate ABC coming off the June swoon, both waves terminating at this juncture. Possible low target zone 23531 at Nov/Dec 2017 support. Good luck! As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
US 30 Trendline Test Rejection: Imminent ThrowoverCompare/contrast to 11/12 June top and throwover. Bearish engulfing candle. Shooting stars. On intraday we saw hanging man twice, and shooting star in SPX 8/.21. Expect imminent throwover to entry on wave C of ABC ZigZag correction pattern within days, after reaching all-time high on SPX 8/21, US 30 25888 at Fibo 0.786 from Jan 26 high. Target 23531. Possibly one more rally attempt to trendline on 8/23, then swoon; or just start lower back down into Bear Flag channel now. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
US 30 Bearish Gartley Formation near complete: Bear Flag ChannelTraders, my bearish colleagues have persuaded me to take a second look at this channel flag. What I found is beary scary. For months now US 30 have been in correction charting a rising channel. My alternate Elliott wave analysis suggests this is an ABC large-scale correction and the Bear Flag is a long, strong B wave, nearing completion in August. For the bullish hypothesis see link to my prior post below. Since discovering the Gartley, I'm a lot less bullish today... Latest moves after twin flash crash with notable bearish divergence (higher highs vs lower lows) show a strong bullish move to test top of channel, but the 0.382 Fibo retracement on this week's WXY correction strongly suggests that the correction is not over and we may be due for an even stronger down wave to backfill all the gaps. Thisi sfurther supported by appearance of a rising wedge within the channel (on chart), converging at critical pivot. Elliott wave charting is notoriously tricky and subjective, it depends entirely on who counts, and how the waves are labeled, and is not always clear. It is a powerful tool but you have got to get the counts right, relooking at that now and will publish a post dedicated to EW. I now wonder if we're in a giant ABC and the (V)(5) completed in January. Therefore I urge extreme caution in taking any position in this market, either long or short, as we are likely due for consolidative whipsawing, at least, and possibly a real bad surprise coming in Sep/Oct. Please compare the Gartley in my chart above with Bitcoin- virtually identical pattern and XABCD ratios- if Dow reaches 25917 it's a perfect Fibonacci 0.786 from January (Credit to Steffro for a post "Is Dow Jones About to Go Down? on 30 July): A double top formation could signal the second bearish down move on the flagpole. The pole is 'A' wave of an ABC Elliott wave, with C leg nearly equal in depth to A. A = -3270; so C could go as low as 22650, but there is Strong Support (Marked SS4 in chart) at 23400 reaching back to Nov 2017. I have posted a bullish alternative model which may still be possible, but I'm starting to worry that analysis may be based on erroneous wave counts, and I did not look far back enough to spot the Gartley but felt that I was missing something so dug deeper and found this rather alarming relationship. The appearance of a bearish Gartley pattern in a Bear Flag Channel combined with an exhaustion gap of +300 and price divergence (see The_Unwind post on this) with higher highs following lower lows all point at a sharp selloff in September/October (the usual time of year for it). I also noted that media keeps calling this "the longest correction on record" when in fact it may well be the beginning of a secular bear market following the longest bull run on record. The parabolic rise in Jan followed by a second, lower top in August at 0.786 Fibo may be the harbinger of a real bear. I will be watching for the pivots and signals. Good luck! A virtually identical Bear Flag example with bearish termination, even down to the exhaustion gap up detail marking the last wave up in channel: www.google.com As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
GBPUSD (Cypher Pattern and Bat Pattern) -1h Chart=Confirmations for Cypher Pattern: - A to B must touch 0.382 but cannot exceed 0.618 - B to C must touch 1.272 but cannot close below 1.414 (Trend-Based Fib Extension) - C to D must touch 0.786 - 0.886 of X to C - First TP at 0.618 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Second TP at 0.382 of D to C (Fibonacci) Bat Pattern confirmations: - A-B must touch 0.5, but cannot touch 0.618 - B-C must touch 0.618, but cannot exceed A (FIbo A-B) or just keep an eye on that 0.236 - D completion at 0.886 (Fibo X-A) - take profits at 0.382 and 0.618 (Fibo A-D) - third TP would be long term back to where it all started Good Trading. - 1h Chart
Long
by DanielParra99
USDCAD (Bat Pattern and other Chart Patterns) - 4h ChartBat Pattern confirmations: - A-B must touch 0.5, but cannot touch 0.618 - B-C must touch 0.618, but cannot exceed A (FIbo A-B) or just keep an eye on that 0.236 - D completion at 0.886 (Fibo X-A) - take profits at 0.382 and 0.618 (Fibo A-D) - third TP would be long term back to where it all started We can see inside left leg there was several harmonic patterns been completed on a bullish movement until it made a double top at point A (Bat) for bearish initiation. At this point a major consolidation was formed with an ABC structure, I measured bearish impulse by placing 0.236 below consolidation, where point B is and got major retracement 0.786 as a higher high at point C, by this point price has been bearish since it reached 0.786. I expect to sell from 0.236 to -0.27 near Bat Pattern completion. Good Trading. - 4h Chart
by DanielParra99
1
CHFJPY (Harmonic Patterns and Wave Analysis) - 1h ChartFirst ABC formation was completed at left side leaving a strong support for bullish initiation. (First Elliot Impulse) confirmations: - 5 clear points - 0 to 1 same distance as 4 to 5 - on this case 1 and 4 overlaped, because of volatility on this pair (shouldn't overlap) - consolidation after 5 completion (Cypher with ABCs on this case) We can see a minor Cypher Pattern been formed between 4 to 5, which was completed thanks to another ABC formation leaving a strong support for bullish continuation. Second Elliott Impulse was formed after ABC formation. confirmations: - 5 clear points - 0 to 1 same distance as 4 to 5 - 1 and 4 dont overlap - type of consolidation after 5 completion (on this case got a bearish ABCD formation) After Ending Channel was completed I measured the entire impulse for 0.786 - 0.886 area, that's the area where Ending Diagonal's and Ending Channel's are completed, the diffrence is that an ending channel has to much consolidation and an Ending Diagonal gives you 5 clear points. After Elliott Impulse was completed we got a bearish ABCD formation, I measured bearish impulse with Trend-Based Fib Extension for 1.272 - 1.414 area where ABCD was completed for bullish impulse, at this point I saw another Cypher Pattern been completed by respecting each retracements Confirmations for Cypher Pattern: - A to B must touch 0.382 but cannot exceed 0.618 - B to C must touch 1.272 but cannot close below 1.414 (Trend-Based Fib Extension) - C to D must touch 0.786 - 0.886 of X to C - First TP at 0.618 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Second TP at 0.382 of D to C (Fibonacci) We can see an ABCD formation and another Elliott Impulse been completed inside this Cypher Pattern. At this point I expect price to be bearish for Ending Channel completion. Good Trading. -1h Chart
Short
by DanielParra99
1
SPY Ending diag or Leading diag?SPY looks to be putting in the W5 of this diag,is it leading and we will continue to new ATHs or is it an ending diag to complete a complex B wave and we get an impusive C wave down to complete the ABC correction. as you can see algos were defending the .50 in W4 giving us a target for W5 at the -.236, which also will possibly fill the gap from the start of the A wave. Taking into consideration the length of time this correction has been relatively short compared to the bull run we just experienced. Failure to fill the gap is a sign of weakness and increases the probability we will see a C wave down. Buckle up and hold on to your hats this is going to be a fun ride. look for large block trades coming in on the VXX, which I did see a couple very large ones at the end of last week. This is something to watch very closely
AMEX:SPY
by ESSCRS
USD/CHF UpdateI hope you caught that buy... Now the question is, did we complete a combo pattern "B" wave? If so, one heck of a trade in a "C" wave. So Far, this correction has played out beautifully as one to trade, ever since the breakout of the choppy channel labeled "A". Should have caught the sell from breaking the high, sorry, been busy with other stuff. Just be careful, wave wise it does still have the potential to produce a running flat or triangle, but I will be looking for sell setups for my "C" scenario until something changes. I would prefer to see it test that zone again though. That last wave seems a little suspicious to me to spike up again.
by thillygoosth
Gold - XAUUSD (Harmonic Patterns and Wave Analysis) - 1h ChartConfirmations for Cypher Pattern: - A to B must touch 0.382 but cannot exceed 0.618 - B to C must touch 1.272 but cannot close below 1.414 (Trend-Based Fib Extension) - C to D must touch 0.786 of X to C - First TP at 0.618 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Second TP at 0.382 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Third TP back to point C Between A to B we can see a minor 2618 trade been completed with some confirmations: 2618 confirmations: - Double floor - Measure impulse - Retracement at 0.618 - TP at -0.27 Double Floor + 0.618 = 2618 At 50% between C to D we can see a major consolidation with minor harmonic patterns been completed within, first there was a shark pattern with a bullish impulse and began gartley formation for bullish continuation towards D completion of the Cypher Pattern. After Cypher Pattern was completed bearish impulse began with an Ending Diagonal been formed - 5 clear points - 1 and 4 overlap - Clear consolidations between each point 0 to 1: First I measured minor pullback by placing 0.236 below consolidation, got 0.5 as higher high of that pullback and went straight towards -0.618 for perfect support. 1 to 3: Afterwards major pullback retraced back to 0.236 making previous lower low a new higher high, got that good consolidation at top for bearish continuation towards point 3 3 to 5: Between 3 to 4 we have and ABC pattern retracing exactly to -0.618 making previous lower low a new higher high for Ending Diagonal completion. I measured 2 to 3 impulse with Trend-Based Fib extension and got 1.272 exactly at point 5 where it left a wick, plus got -1.618 from minor pullback as support near 1.272. At this point I expect some type of consolidation or retest at point 5 for bullish impulse towards 0.786 - 0.886 area. Good Trading. - 1h Chart
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by DanielParra99
1
USDSEK HIts new YTD HighsSEK weakness continues to reign , previously we saw a potential double bottom (DB) form with the February low (pattern later confirmed with a break of the neckline in April) and had further reason to be convinced of the reversal with an A-B-C reversal pattern forming off the same Feb low. After reaching a YTD high of 8.9159 we saw a ner retest of the DB neckline but have now advanced to a YTD high of 8.96 and threatening a test of pysch level 9.00 as well as the pivot support from April 2017 at 9.10. IF we see price advance above these milestones then the next target is the 2016 high at 9.44. Traders should look to get tactically long either on breakouts or pullbacks to prior pivots. Be wary of entering on overstretched bars, we may see a short term advance followed by a pullback to 9.00, an entry could then be taken from the next close at a new high Good luck
Long
by TJP_Trader
Filtering Out The Noise: A Broad Picture?It has been quite a challenge making sense of the price movements in this market, with continuous short and long squeezes appearing from out of nowhere. In this view, we overlay Elliott Waves on the major price movements on the 4h chart. There are some clear wave counts, though the more common wave length ratios are somewhat shortened. In particular, the anti-corrective B wave, which is typically quite a large bull trap, seems to have been checked to be quite shallow, intent as the market was to correct lower, quicker. Also, the typical 1.618 fib. ratios of 3rd waves are somewhat shortened as well. Some things to note: price has just moved below one of the long-term trend lines which is the 1st line of major support that has been broken. Also, a large bullish bear wedge has formed at the end of wave 1, which should contribute to realizing wave 2. Wave 3 is aligned with the second important support level corresponding to a previous support level of the "Great Correction" from $20k to $6k, specifically $6425. The 3rd level of support is the low of the Great Correction corresponding to $6k. The 4th level of support corresponds to a support zone prior to the Great Correction at $5400. And finally, the broad long-term trend line corresponds to the final major level of support. This is a hard support, and corresponds to the $5k price territory. As mentioned previously, a large bullish wedge has formed at what appears to be the end of wave 1. The RSI also shows clear price divergence on two separate occassions. This strongly suggests a temporary reversal is imminent. That said, with the blatant price manipulation that is rampant in this market at present, almost anything is possible. But I do think that the manipulators only exaggerate natural market trends in order to further capitalize from them and milk them for all they're worth. It would be too costly, even for deep pockets, to go against the market outright, except for very short-term squeezes and head-fakes. Target: $5k-$6.4k
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by dalmazio
3
XAUUSD (Bullish Impulse) - Daily 0-1 There was a Cypher Pattern, which gave us point 1 completion at -0.618. 1-2 ABC Pattern was formed. 2-3 Bullish impulse from ABCs and X-A of Gartley Pattern. 3-4 Type of ABCD formation that gave us D completion of Gartley Pattern exactly at 0.786. 4 to 5 I expect Channel to be completed by reaching point 5 at top. I measured bullish Flag by placing 0.236 at top of consolidation and got 0.618 as perfect support for the entire consolidation, -0.27 - 1.618 area would be take profit (1.618 from Trend-Based Fib Extension). MACD shows Flag much easier with an ABC structure for our bullish impulse. Good Trading - Daily Chart
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by DanielParra99
EURCAD (Cypher Pattern) -4h ChartConfirmations for Cypher Pattern: - A to B must touch 0.382 but cannot exceed 0.618 (on this case B is at 0.5) - B to C must touch 1.272 but cannot close below 1.414 (Trend-Based Fib Extension) - C to D must touch 0.786 of X to C - First TP at 0.618 of D to C (Fibonacci) - Second TP at 0.382 of D to C (Fibonacci) ABCs inside left leg gave bearish impulse for ABCD pattern iniciation, so we can get a clear bullish impulse towards D completion at 0786 for our Cypher Pattern. I expect price to be bullish until that point (0.786) for Cypher Pattern confirmation and sell. Good Trading.
by DanielParra99
Short Squeezes, Pumps, and Dumps, Oh My!This market seems rife with short and long squeezes as evidenced by the many rapid red and green cliff-hanger price movements. However, the market does appear to genuinely want a correction after the recent bull move from $6k to $10k. The bear squeezes seem to be an attempt to shake out the highly leveraged shorts, who are (perhaps inadvertently) contributing to the high market volatility. Corrections are normal, without corrections there would be no infusion of new capital thus providing foundation and support for new highs. But highly leveraged shorting in crypto is just asking for trouble. Any professional trader worth his salt will advise against leveraged trading in crypto, unless you are okay with living on the edge and getting your account wiped out. But this is crypto and so we must deal with all the market manipulation and extreme volatility, and try to find our way through the forest and the trees. As far as TA goes, we seem to be in the 2nd leg of a C wave of an ABC correction. Looking at the above chart, the first A wave of the correction brought us down to $8200. One thing that's interesting is the appearance of a "black swan" truncated 5th leg that stops a little above this low, instead of proceeding past it as 5th waves normally do. This is followed by the B wave consisting of a triangle ABCDE correction, which is very apparent and shown in orange. Then begins the C wave of the broader ABC correction, in which we have completed the 1st leg, and part of the 2nd leg. Additionally, the end of the 3rd leg and 4th leg correspond to broad 0.618 and 0.5 fib. retracements which are common reversal/inflection points. Also interesting to note is that the $7500 target seems to coincide with the broad 0.707 fib. retracement which many traders attach much significance to. All this suggests a price target around $7500 before we begin a broader bull move, possibly to new highs. However, it's worth considering an alternative formulation. It's possible that the ABCDE correction in orange actually comprises the 4th leg of the broader A wave, and the recent $8100 low, is actually the 5th leg of that broader A wave. Which means that we are just beginning the B wave of the broader ABC correction, which has a tendency to be a bull trap as it can be quite deep. This could mean that we might see some higher prices first, up to as high as $9k, before resuming the downward trend. If this scenario plays out, it means that the final target will probably be a little lower, perhaps around $7k-$7.2k instead of $7.5k. In any case, we can be sure of one thing: it's going to be a thrilling ride. Target: $7500
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by dalmazio
4