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Abcpattern

ABC PATTERN IN EURAUD - 4H CHARTHey Traders, Just a re-analysis on this. Still looking for a sell to trade the C wave of this possible ABC pattern. Now it could start the impulse before expected (red). If you want to trade this look for a correction or a flag and sell it to the low at the end of Wave A. - Hola Traders, Simplemente un re-analysis en esto. Sigo buscando una venta para operar la Onda C del posible patrón ABC. Podría arrancar en impulso antes de lo previsto (rojo). Si queréis operar la venta buscad una corrección o una bandera para venderlo hasta el bajo en el final de la Onda A. Carlos
by ccerezo11
8
Gold - Main scenario sees wave B ending between 1,315 and 1,345Gold did indeed continued its correction and reached a low at 1,260 USD on Friday the 6th of October. I hope you followed my advise and went long below 1,265 USD, cause since then a strong recovery is on its way and gold is already back above 1,300 USD. Yet the big questions whether this current up-move is just a wave B type recovery or in deed the beginning of the next big up-leg towards 1,400 USD remains unanswered. Our mechanical Midas Touch Gold Model™ has shifted to a neutral conclusion on October the 9th. Over the last couple of days a few new buy signals showed up. Besides the obvious ones for gold in Indian Rupee & in Chinese Yuan the US-Dollar has come back down enough to create a buy signal for gold six days ago. Especially positive is the fact, that gold in US-Dollar now has a buy signal one the daily, weekly and monthly chart. Overall it therefore doesn’t take too much for a bullish conclusion of our model anymore. But looking at the CoT-Report its clear that the commercial are still holding a massive short-position in the gold futures-market. And you don’t want to bet against them. So besides any short-term recoveries the correction since early September seems not to be over yet. It would be a surprise if the bulls can force the professional players to raise their short positions once again. Coming back to the technical outlook for gold the most likely outcome is that we are currently in wave B that will end somewhere between 1,315 and 1,345 USD. At 1,345 USD there is still an open gap waiting to be filled! The upper Bollinger Band currently sits at 1,316 USD. So we might see a temporary pullback from those levels before gold can find more strength to close the open gap. After that I expect another move down towards at least the rising 200MA currently sitting at 1,255 USD. Only if gold can take out the September highs at 1,357 USD this outlook becomes invalid as it would mean that the correction since early September has already finished at 1,260 USD on October the 6th.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by MidasTouchConsulting
Schrodinger’s Cat: Two Realities (Part II: Bull)I'm including the same analysis here as for the sister post (Part 1: Bear). I've published them separately as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy. It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both the bear and bull view can be supported in this region simultaneously. But as soon as we exit this region of space-time, the two realities collapse into one. Which one? That’s the question. From the bear perspective, the region of interest is the region just after completion of wave 1 of the C wave which we have just begun. This region is the wave 2 correction of wave 1. At the end of a typical wave 2 (fib. 0.5 to 0.618 retracement) we would expect to then reverse downwards with wave 3 of the broader C wave. If instead, we continue to move upward passed the start of wave 1 (from the bear perspective), then it’s looking more like a bull, and the bull chart takes over (at least for now). I say, “at least for now” because it’s still possible that we could be in a B wave, and the C wave has not yet begun. So Schrodinger’s Cat may still be hiding in another smaller box. This bear view will be tenable until the B wave passes too far beyond the X wave, perhaps $4360, which represents the fib. 1.382 extension of wave A. at which point, the cat exits the box and room (bull seems likely). For expanded flat ABC corrections, which this appears to be one, the usual B extension of wave A is 1.236, so we’ve been generous with 1.382. But let’s be safe, and say $4400 as the point of (virtually) no return. From the bull perspective, the same region of interest occurs after completion of the wave (ii) correction of wave (i) of the broader wave 3. At the completion of wave (ii) we are at the same point, in a parallel universe, that we are for the bear view at the completion of wave 1 of the broader C wave. At this point, bear and bull may proceed mano a mano for a short time in an upward movement. From the bear perpsective, we are correcting wave (i) of the broader C wave, from the bull perspective, we are beginning wave (iii) of the broader wave 3. Then, the moment of truth, where Schrodinger’s cat leaps from the box shrieking as it navigates the chasm of existence vs. non-existence, as one reality begins to collapse into oblivion. That point: $4277 (current swing high). If we pass this point, the bull view survives. If we about-face before reaching this point, the bear view survives. Okay, “oblivion” is a slight exggeration. One of the bull or bear views don’t *really* collapse into oblivion, one or the other is rather increasingly phasing out of the possibility of existence. It’s possible, for example, that the cat that jumped out of the box was the real cat’s fake double, a doppleganger of sorts, to test the waters of reality. Not until we move below the $3490 point (previous swing low) will most of the bull view’s sense of self actually dissolve. But it will still maintain enough of a semblance of identity to cling to the belief that it still exists, until the low of $3k. Then it’s good-bye for a while, until a more authentic version of itself, its true self, appears, like the phoenix from out of the ashes. In short, watch the current downward movement, and the following upward movement, very closely. For both we should continue down to the $3800-$4000 region. Then we should reverse upwards. If we then continue upwards beyond the recent swing high ($4277) we are more likely in a bull. Instead, if we reverse before then back down, we are more likely in a bear. And if neither of the above scenarious come to pass, then there may be something more sinister at work. A third unexpected reality, which shall remain unnamed.
Long
by dalmazio
Schrodinger’s Cat: Two Realities (Part I: Bear)I decided to create two parallel reality charts (also applies to Ethereum & company). One for the bear view, and one for the bull view. What I found was interesting. I'll publish them as two separate ideas, as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy. It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both the bear and bull view can be supported in this region simultaneously. But as soon as we exit this region of space-time, the two realities collapse into one. Which one? That’s the question. From the bear perspective, the region of interest is the region just after completion of wave 1 of the C wave which we have just begun. This region is the wave 2 correction of wave 1. At the end of a typical wave 2 (fib. 0.5 to 0.618 retracement) we would expect to then reverse downwards with wave 3 of the broader C wave. If instead, we continue to move upward passed the start of wave 1 (from the bear perspective), then it’s looking more like a bull, and the bull chart takes over (at least for now). I say, “at least for now” because it’s still possible that we could be in a B wave, and the C wave has not yet begun. So Schrodinger’s Cat may still be hiding in another smaller box. This bear view will be tenable until the B wave passes too far beyond the X wave, perhaps $4360, which represents the fib. 1.382 extension of wave A. at which point, the cat exits the box and room (bull seems likely). For expanded flat ABC corrections, which this appears to be one, the usual B extension of wave A is 1.236, so we’ve been generous with 1.382. But let’s be safe, and say $4400 as the point of (virtually) no return. From the bull perspective, the same region of interest occurs after completion of the wave (ii) correction of wave (i) of the broader wave 3. At the completion of wave (ii) we are at the same point, in a parallel universe, that we are for the bear view at the completion of wave 1 of the broader C wave. At this point, bear and bull may proceed mano a mano for a short time in an upward movement. From the bear perpsective, we are correcting wave (i) of the broader C wave, from the bull perspective, we are beginning wave (iii) of the broader wave 3. Then, the moment of truth, where Schrodinger’s cat leaps from the box shrieking as it navigates the chasm of existence vs. non-existence, as one reality begins to collapse into oblivion. That point: $4277 (current swing high). If we pass this point, the bull view survives. If we about-face before reaching this point, the bear view survives. Okay, “oblivion” is a slight exggeration. One of the bull or bear views don’t *really* collapse into oblivion, one or the other is rather increasingly phasing out of the possibility of existence. It’s possible, for example, that the cat that jumped out of the box was the real cat’s fake double, a doppleganger of sorts, to test the waters of reality. Not until we move below the $3490 point (previous swing low) will most of the bull view’s sense of self actually dissolve. But it will still maintain enough of a semblance of identity to cling to the belief that it still exists, until the low of $3k. Then it’s good-bye for a while, until a more authentic version of itself, its true self, appears, like the phoenix from out of the ashes. In short, watch the current downward movement, and the following upward movement, very closely. For both we should continue down to the $3800-$4000 region. Then we should reverse upwards. If we then continue upwards beyond the recent swing high ($4277) we are more likely in a bull. Instead, if we reverse before then back down, we are more likely in a bear. And if neither of the above scenarious come to pass, then there may be something more sinister at work. A third unexpected reality, which shall remain unnamed.
Short
by dalmazio
3
USD Index. Long Term ViewAs you can see on the chart, I think we had the top on Dollar Index at 103 and we are not going back there anytime soon. The entire Daily structure looks very much like a reversal to me (maybe a Head&Shoulders). With this being said, I also think we had the daily swing bottom set couple weeks ago at the price of 91 and we are not going back below until USD Index doesn`t make a deep correction. I expect this correction to be either a 3 wave zig-zag or a 3 wave flat. In any case, would be watching closely the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibbonaci retracement levels of the entire move (103 to 91), as I expect the price to start turning bearish in that area. I will be updating the chart as the structure develops and starts giving hints of the next moves.
TVC:DXYLong
by MarcuDan
2
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami Only Half Over?The move to $4k invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and re-number waves. There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC corrective wave is even deeper than originally thought, and we are just nearing the end of corrective subwave B of the ABC correction. However, market analysis doesn’t only consist of technical analysis, we also need to consider fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. The three pillars of market analysis. Fundamentals are weak, given the political environment in China, and the announcement by the Chinese government that all crypto exchanges will need to be closed by end of Sept. with a grace period being given to a couple exchanges to the end of Oct. What this means is that there will likely be a large migration of volume to other asian markets, likely Korea, Japan, and others. In addition, it is also highly likely, that many Chinese will just sell and withdraw their Chinese Yuan, and so this news is highly bearish for Bitcoin and all crypto in general, as Bitcoin sets the overall market trend. Market sentiment is still quite bearish. There is a market-wide feeling of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is a feeling of distrust of the recent bull move, seeing it as a kind of bull trap before even deeper lows are realized. It seems many are quite content to sit on the sidelines, waiting it out until things stabilize and there aren’t so many contradictory signals. Given this, I am of the view that we are very mush still entrenched in a bear market and the second scenario that we are moving to deeper lows is much more likely. In this context, it appears that we are nearing the end of the B wave of a larger ABC correction. This B wave has a notorious reputation for being a bull trap, as it can appear quite aggressive. We may still have some room to continue the B wave to the $4100 or $4200 range, but when it finishes, we should begin the C wave of the ABC correction. And this wave has the potential to bring us down to somewhere between the $1800 and $2500 area. So the ABC correction looks very roughly like this: A wave: $5k-$3k B wave: $3k-$4k C wave: $4k-$2k Preliminary price targets for wave (II) correspond to wave (I) fib. retracements of 0.5 and 0.618 giving $2475 and $1835. In addition, we have the 1.0 extension of wave A at $2081. On top of that, the long-term trend line (1d) intersects this price territory at around the $2500-$2600 level. And the last time we had a major correction (40%), we closed about $100 below this trend line for a few periods (over half a day) before reversing. Also, establishing a parallel descending trend channel for the current ABC correction, shows that we can reach our targets without ever leaving this channel. Lastly, experimenting with the Fibonacci sprial tool shows how these price targets can touch the spiral with target lows reached sometime in very early October. The chart is scaled so that this fib. spiral aligns with the fib. time-based extension tool, for calculating wave C as the time-based fib. 1.0 extension of wave A (or at least it was, but publishing seems to have re-scaled it slightly and moved the spiral just short of the fib. 1.0 vertical). Target I: Wave (II) = intersection of long-term (1d) trend-line ($2575) Target II: Wave (II) = 0.5 x Wave (I) ($2475) Target III: Wave C = 1.0 x Wave A ($2093) Target IV: Wave (II) = 0.618 x Wave (I) ($1835)
Short
by dalmazio
10
Twin Sister: Ethereum Corrective Tsunami Only Half Over?This analysis is very similar to my recent Bitcoin analysis (twin sister). It seems all cryptos are generally following Bitcoin’s price movements in this major correction. So you can apply the ideas here to pretty much any crypto. I’ll do this analysis separately for Ethereum so you can see just how similar they are. The move passed $267 invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and renumber waves. There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC corrective wave is even deeper than originally thought, and we are just nearing the end of corrective subwave B of the ABC correction. However, market analysis doesn’t only consist of technical analysis, we also need to consider fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. The three pillars of market analysis. Fundamentals are weak, given the political environment in China, and the announcement by the Chinese government that all crypto exchanges will need to be closed by end of Sept. with a grace period being given to a couple exchanges to the end of Oct. What this means is that there will likely be a large migration of volume to other asian markets, likely Korea, Japan, and others. In addition, it is also highly likely, that many Chinese will just sell and withdraw their Chinese Yuan, and so this news is highly bearish for Bitcoin and Ethereum and all cryptos in general, as Bitcoin sets the overall market trend. Market sentiment is still quite bearish. There is a market-wide feeling of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is a feeling of distrust of the recent bull move, seeing it as a kind of bull trap before even deeper lows are realized. It seems many are quite content to sit on the sidelines, waiting it out until things stabilize and there aren’t so many contradictory signals. Given this, I am of the view that we are very mush still entrenched in a bear market and the second scenario that we are moving to deeper lows is much more likely. It appears that we are nearing the end of the B wave of a larger ABC correction. This B wave has a notorious reputation for being a bull trap, as it can appear quite aggressive. We may still have some room to continue the B wave a little above $300, but when it finishes, we should begin the C wave of the ABC correction. And this wave has the potential to bring us down to the lows of the previous major correction ($138). So the ABC correction looks very roughly like this: A wave: $400-$200 B wave: $200-$300 C wave: $300-$100 (or perhaps a little higher) Preliminary price targets for wave 2 correspond to wave 1 fib. retracements of 0.764, 0.854, and 1.0 giving $199, $176 and $138. In addition, we have the 0.618 and 1.0 extension of wave A at $179 and $103. On top of this, the 200 day moving average (1d candlesticks) passes just above the target price territory. Also, establishing a parallel descending trend channel for the current ABC correction, shows that we can reach all of our targets without ever leaving this channel. Lastly, experimenting with the Fibonacci sprial tool shows how these price targets can touch the spiral with target lows reached sometime in very early October. The chart is scaled so that this fib. spiral aligns with the fib. time-based extension tool, for calculating wave C as the time-based fib. 1.0 extension of wave A. Target I: Wave 2 ≈ 0.764 x Wave 1 ($199) Target II: Wave C ≈ 0.618 x Wave A ($179) Target III: Wave 2 ≈ 0.854 x Wave 1 ($176) Target IV: Wave 2 ≈ 1.0 x Wave 1 ($138) Target V: Wave C ≈ 1.0 x Wave A ($103)
Short
by dalmazio
13
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami After-EffectsPrice target of $3000 has been reached. However, movement from $3800 to $3000 took several days to develop, whereas price movement from $3000 to $3800 was parabolic (hours) and therefore highly emotional (FOMO). This kind of parabolic price action is often reversed by an equally parabolic return to where it started. In fact, there is the very real possibility of a double-top which appears to be in the process of forming, which if confirmed at the neckline suggests a return to previous lows, and perhaps testing new lows. Further, there are CCI and Stochastic RSI divergences as shown in the chart, and volume is also decreasing. Together these suggests a reversal is likely, at least down to the double-top neckline, and if the neckline breaks, then back down to previous lows. There is some uncertainty in the Elliott Wave numbering, since the recent rally could be considered a deep subwave 4 counter-correction, before resuming completion of the final leg of corrective wave C, or it could be the beginning of the new upward movement wave, with the ABC correction being complete. The reason I think it is the former is because the rally was formed far too quickly and emotionally. As previously mentioned, parabolic price actions are often followed by their mirror cousins sometime shortly after. Healthy price action usually requires some level of consolidation at their lows or highs before reversing. The relative strength, momentum and volume divergences, as well as forming double-top supports this. If the double-top neckline breaks, then I am looking at price targets in the $3k area. And if the $2927 low is taken out, then I’m looking at targets in the $2734 area, which represents the fib. 0.618 extension of subwaves 1-3 of wave C. Finally, I’m also keeping an eye on deeper lows in the $2475 area corresponding to the fib. 0.5 retracement of wave (I), which also intersects the long-term trend line. We now have some reference points for retesting. Be cautious, and don’t jump in too deep too quick. Leave something on the table in case prices go even lower than expected.
Short
by dalmazio
21
Litecoin Catching a Wave: Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami?There is a pattern across all cryptos that began on Sept. 8, specifically the bearish pennant. What’s remarkable is that it’s occurring across all cryptos. This suggests to me that there is a move underway, which will affect all cryptos. I’ve already written about the Bitcoin tsunami, where I am expecting a correction down to the $3000-$3500 range, and possibly deeper if the conditions are right. Bitcoin dictates the broad bearish or bullish trend of the entire crypto market. Within that broad structure, all other cryptos can have their own unique bearish or bullish trends or counter-trends. But they are comparatively much smaller movements within the broader picture. When there are large movements in Bitcoin, it brings everything with it. Add to this the bearish pennant across all cryptos, the steep loss of momentum and volume, and we have a recipe for a deep market-wide correction. The targets I’m providing are for the Fibonacci Wave III retracement levels for Wave IV and Wave A extension levels of Wave C of the corrective ABC Elliott Wave. The deeper the Bticoin correction, the deeper these levels get activated for Litecoin. Target I: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.382 x Wave I ($63) Target II: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.5 x Wave I ($55)* Target III: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.0 x Wave A ($50)* Target IV: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.618 x Wave I ($46)* Target V: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.236 x Wave A ($43)
Short
by dalmazio
9
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami Underway? (Zoom Out II)This is the same chart as previously, except zoomed way out, so you can see the broader Elliott Waves in context, with the purple wave being the largest completed "genesis" wave which we are now correcting. Targets are shown to be $3000-$3600 based on standard Elliott Wave Theory. However, this correction has the potential to go much deeper. For example, the $2500 level, and even the $2000 level if conditions are right. Be cautious. Target: $3000-$3600
Short
by dalmazio