Hi Australian data (weak GDP, RBA below hawkish expectations and Retail sales overnight) plus short term chart are against the bulls. If we add negative sentiment during the New York session (still 2 hours and anything can happen there), we do have good ground for short positions; Selling rallies towards 77.55 / 75 Stop above 77.95 Target 76.15 Good luck
Eyes on UMich today. Sentiment remains awful out there despite how talking heads are selling re-openings to the masses. A very dovish Fed has forced Global Equities to play ball and marked a meaningful top across risk markets. VIX exploding higher after testing 🔑 25.0x support and implying the next move coming is a lot more sinister. This ST swing does not change...
The elements of Macro strategy 📍 On the JPY side... It is well known the vulnerability of Japanese corporates in this environment, they are particularly exposed because of the demographics and sector exposures. Restaurants, bars, entertainment etc all are looking very feeble, and with...
FX:USDJPY broke the 50DMA once again and looking bearish in my opinion. The breakdown and downtrend is also supported by the moving averages on the hourly timeframes. Don't have any big positions as I expected it to retest the 114 breakdown level but it didn't happen 4H Timeframe View: FX:USDJPY tried to break the 200MA but it failed and continued its...
FX_IDC:USDJPY completed the handle of the Inverse Cup and Handle pattern and its now testing the previous daily low. If FX_IDC:USDJPY breaks down then it should retest the daily support turned resistance as the 200MA Daily, 50/200 MA Weekly, 50/200MA Monthly Moving Averages should provide support for the price to bounce. If it bounces from here then it needs...
After it broke and consolidated above 113, FX_IDC:USDJPY is looking to be another good long. Let's see if it can challenge the previous high at 114.8. Entry: 113.251 SL: 113.2 (Changed to break-even 113.3) TP: (tp1)113.9 (tp2)114.45 (tp3)114.8 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
After breaking out of because of the "Trump Tax Plan" news, FX:USDJPY failed to follow up the bullish momentum and broke not just the 50ma but also the support level at 113.50. Short Entry: 113.494 SL: 113.6 TP: 113(possible the price will bounce off the 200ma)-112.470 Any feedbacks are appreciated
$Yen - There is little impetus for this pair this week, with this recent rally likely part of the NFP report flushing out. - Nonetheless from here I maintain my bearish bias given the BOJ and JPN govts massive let downs I think USDJPY topside will struggle and we will move through 100 once the risk-off tone returns (which is likely once the equities rally/...
Interestingly the RTRS poll for Aug has a bullish near-term bias for $yen vs in July - my opinion is contrary to their poll as the BOJ and JPY MOF failed to deliver the hype expected/ promised this past week - i think 101/2 is much more likely for the next 3 months vs their 103.8. Comments from PM Abe, MOF and BOJ minutes that we observed in the Asia session were...
BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* ...
BOJ - 3trn increase in annual ETF Purchases + $24bn increase in USD funding for banks 1. The BOJ on Friday delivered a shockingly poor package, imo they changed the snallest part of their current QQE programme. 2. What was interesting though was the markets reaction - immediately after the decision $Yen spiked higher then lower to 103 level but from then and...
28/29th June BOJ Meeting Expectations by 27 analysts polled by Reuters: 1. 23/27 (85%) expect easing from the BOJ. - The Median Analyst expect a 10bps cut to the headline interest rate to -0.2% and a Yen10TRN Extenstion to the BOJ's monetary base target to Yen90TRN a month (JGB and ETF Purchases). - One analyst expects easing in September, two in October and...
Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming 1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of...
Target 1 : 103 Target 2 : 100
We have the USDJPY in a massive over exhausted downtrend on the daily. Technical: Daily bullish wedge. VERY long term trend line rejection after Brexit VERY key support line from 2014 Deceleration, failure to break brexit lows Doji candle on Friday 8th July Along with these excellent technical's there is also a few fundamentals to go along with it, to see this...
Took a long position on this pair based on the following reasons: - Ascending W/D trendline has not been broken + LH have been made constantly - Inverted H+S pattern on daily However, as this is a rising wedge, this has the potential to fall right through the roof and continue heading south, I have entered slightly early neglecting PA, so be patient and assess...
Political pressure no longer exists. JPY plunge a main priority for Abe now.