Abnamro
ABN continues to rise after a double bottom.ABN Amro Bank - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 9.63 (stop at 9.29)
Prices have reacted from 8.69.
Posted a Double Bottom formation.
Short term momentum is bullish.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
A break of the recent high at 9.62 should result in a further move higher.
Our profit targets will be 10.44 and 10.84
Resistance: 9.60 / 9.80 / 10.20
Support: 9.40 / 9.20 / 9.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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ABN - Dutch Bank - outlookWe made the run on the vaccination news in november and closed our position at the top. Then we went short. Last week closed shorts and are in cash.
Why?
We are at a crossroads. We do not know what effect the dividents news will have on the bank stocks, and same goes for the increased ECB support/lending. So it was safer to wait and see. We did not see much action from the news (no major movement). ABN tried now several days to break out of the red channel, but failed and kept re-testing support.
It is a critical moment for the banks. With major lockdowns ongoing and the realisation that vaccine rollout will take time, there is not that much to look forward to in the banking sector. We might see a wave of foreclosures of small businesses due to extended lockdowns of restaurants, cafe's, and non-essential stores (clothing etc.), and we still have tourism industry and airports that are bleeding. Big brands will still find traffic to their webstores, but small businesses will struggle.
On the upside, the european economy is robust and several sectors are overperforming (IT, ecomomerce, semi-conductors, metal, to name a few).
Will the critical resistance at 7.918 hold? or are we testing lower? Let's simply wait and see. There is no major play to be made here until we can get a confirmation if the red channel will be broken, or continue downward. Shorting here based on the stochastics indicator is an option, but I already took profit from my short from the top and as we reach bottom shorting becomes more and more risky as a move. Also there are other more interesting trades out there right now.
Stochastic indicators on the weekly and daily tell us we are poised for longer downward movement. However in this market we have seen some pretty unexpected volatitliy up and down, so keep a watch for a break in the pattern and re-adjust strategies based on that. See below charts:
Trade safe.
Remember, trade the chart, not the company!
Time For A Comeback? | ABN Amro LongEURONEXT:ABN has not been performing well since the peak of januari 2018. Since then it has steadily dropped from 28 euro's to 18. Where at first it looked like it has found its bottem there. However the price quickly broke support, made support new resistance and dropped 60% from there. After that 60% drop the stock has found its bottom around €5.70 which is 80% from it's peak.
On this weekly chart of ABN Amro, we can see a white line. That line is the 21 exponential moving average. This line has been support in the period of August 2016 all the way to the peak. After that, the 21 ema became resistance. Right now the price has already touched the line twice and it seems like it wants to break that line.
What we also notice is the high amount of volume which can be found at the bottom area. This implies that investors are willing to buy this stock at these levels. The next cluster of volume can be found all the way at €16,-. What this means is that as soon as the 21 ema breaks, the price can rise up very quickly because there hasn't been formed any resistance or support on the way down.
To summarize: We have a stock which has fallen 80% from its all time high, The VPVR suggests that buyers are willing to step in at this price, The 21 EMA is likely to be broken and lastly the next big resistance is all the way at €16,- which gives this trade a potential of 100%.
ABN new upward momentum!A lot of bad press around ABN + covid19 made people dump the stock massively in March and it has been undervalued ever since. It did not enjoy the steady recovery other stocks made after the march correction, making it a prime candidate for investment.
This Dutch bank is very well funded and healthy, large dutch gov. share + oversight (25%+) in the bank also helps.
The bad news cycle will pass and then we will see it back around it's old value of around 15-16 euro.
There was a long accumulation zone around 5.8-6.4 euro past weeks which some traders took advantages of (I hesitated too long).
ABN has done about 70% gain in the past 24 days officially breaking from it's downward trend and establishing a new upward channel.
With a poke through the 9,37 euro resistance yesterday, (8th June Monday) reaching 9,5 it showed it can move higher still.
We now see an expected pullback to the bottom of the channel,and bounces off that bottom nicely. If it goes for another poke through the ceiling in the next couple of days, we might see 10,2-10,4 eur before it makes another pullback.
9june -------Trade active, next target: 10.2-10.4---------------
Disclaimer:
trade safe, I am in no way a professional trader, just sharing my idea helps me improve myself, it's not meant as stock advice for you to trade on.
Watch out for outbreak ABNABN is in a descending wedge for quite some time now and with all the pump craziness there is a chance of breakout.
Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials:
If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below:
1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index.
2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225.
Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement.
3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market)
Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses
NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
ABN AMRO Group possible short setup on triple top.ABN Amro is in an overall downtrend. On this pullback we already hit major resistance 3 times, and is about to reverse again. Wait for confirmation, with the stop loss and targets as shown. The first target is somewhat conservative, I expect it to go lower but it's already a pretty good risk/reward ratio.