ABX very bullish on this$ABX is a great buy at this level. Been bullish since the start of the year. Had a retrace so its a perfect buy. Stock is oversold. Also crossed the 200 SMA. Long!
ABX
ABX could be ready to correct!ABX has been very bullish for 6 weeks and is starting to lose the momentum which shows up in Bearish divergence in RSI as well..
I'll short on break of lower TL
ABX: Barrick Gold Corp: Not yet fizzled out!It had been an unstable year for miners, with metal prices starting near multi-year lows as executives drew from a common playbook. However, the stock is not yet fizzled out. A trade setup has been marked well on the chart.
ABX we are getting closeWe absolutely see buying here. Even though a tiny new low is possible, but is not required.
Seems like ABX is clearer than GDXABX appears to have a new low coming in before rebound. Stay focused.
ABX, GDX, Gold longRegardless of EW count, the new leg up looks impulsive thus far so looking to go long... just need to work out when this (assumed) correction (b wave?) has finished.
Low of Day retest Bearish Daytrade on ABXLow of day Retest. Already triggered in and failed the 10 EMA on the 5 Minute Chart. Could potentially retest the $16.10 level again before completely breaking down. It's already moved a good amount today.
ABX ChartNew to trading, my very first chart. With recent fed news, coupled with venezuela news - my hypothesis is leaning towards a jump in ABX. Although, ABX has taken a hit in the last couple of days with investment funds jumping ship. The chart is a 4hr frame showing a oversold RSI. Again, I am new - so maybe I produced this all wrong.
I am open to corrections and would appreciate constructive feedback - especially from the vets out there. merci
XAUUSD : Potential Reversal Suspected to 1419Bulkowski's Inverted Scallop in sight on Daily.
Has Trendline Resistance at around 1325-1327
EMA20 on daily at 1325 may provide necessary bounce.
A: 1305.38
B: 1375.92
(B - A) x 61% = Height of Impulse
B + Height of Impulse = Target Price.
($1375.92 - $1305.38) X 61% = $42.82
1375.92 + 42.82 = 1418.74
NOTABLE HIGH IV STOCKS WITH IV > 50%1. P, 79%
2. FCX, 76%
3. X, 75%
4. TWTR, 67%
5. STX, 57%
6. ABX, 56%
7. NFLX, 56%
8 GG, 53%
9. SLW, 52%
Naturally, we are coming into earnings season here, so there's a reason that some of these have high IV here (e.g., NFLX announces in a week and a half). Ordinarily, I like IV to be >50% and IVR (current IV's level relative to where it's been for the past 52 weeks to be high, too), but I may not find a great deal of 70%+ IVR plays here with broad market volatility so low (VIX finished the week below 15).
Neverthless, it may be worthwhile to churn through this small list for premium selling plays (iron condors, short strangles, short straddes), assuming there's sufficient time before earnings to sneak a play in. Otherwise, it's probably best just to wait to do the standard volatility contraction play surrounding earnings ... .
#Gold Testing Support Near Term Bounce ExpectedGold is testing lower levels of support as market participants aim to price in a potential rate hike in June by the Federal Reserve.
While intraday price action is oversold, the daily chart is indicating further selling could continue to below $1,230. If a close below this key level occurs, traders can expect XAUUSD to reach $1,215.
Subscribers of MacroView's "Daily Grind" were alerted of the potential of a $30+ drop as seen here .
Key factors to watch:
The four-hour chart z-score is -2.4 (daily z-score is -2.57). This suggests that prices are stretched and a score +/- 2 makes a great contrarian indicator.
Intraday RSI and Stochastic are both suggesting oversold conditions.
Multiple EMA bearish convergence, currently a 50/200 EMA bearish crossover is probable.
MacroView expects to see demand between $1,215/20. It's important to keep and eye on the short end of the yield curve. With a relatively strong negative correlation with the two and five year yield maturity, if those continue to rise, we could see more pressure on the yellow metal.
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Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash?
According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as market participants choose to overlook the weakening global economy and its implications. Nevertheless, with inflows into risk ETFs like SPY and HYG, gold miners could see their shares pull back from this historic gold run.
Technically, after GDX broke out of a longer-term downtrend, price action began to oscillate within a narrow ascending channel. Prices are likely to pullback to channel and price action support of $19.80, while a confirmed break (or daily close below support), miners could fall to $18.85 and, potentially, $17.85 - also nearing the 50-day EMA.
However, if the popular mining ETFs can remain above support, price action could challenge $21.88 and $23.03.
Overall price action and trend momentum still remain rather supportive to the upside.
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Gold to $8,000?Despite what so-called gold bugs have been trying to predict for years, it still remains seen how valuable the most "hated" asset on Wall Street can be. Calls of $10- or $50,000 gold have made headlines and often laughs, but when investors take into account the supporting fundamentals, gold can be extremely beneficial during these centrally-planned economies.
Recently, Pierre Lassonde said that gold could have the potential to reach $8,000 per ounce when looking at the gold-to-Dow ratio. He mentions how tangible assets tend to regain parity after previous bull-markets, and the potential for his forecast is supported if the gold-to-Dow ratio his .5 while expressing that the quick and expansive adaptation of NIRP will fuel the fire.
As central banks continue to ease ($12.3 trillion in quantitative easing and 650 rate cuts since the financial crisis), there is a potential for a prolonged bull market in gold. As I noted in "Demand for Gold Rockets Higher ," if the renewed momentum were to match nominal gains investors seen between 2009-2011, spot prices would near $2,230 - which is not $8,000 but very respectable.
The 1.61 Fib. extension from the current multi-year low and the 2011 high is $2,460.
In " Gold Looks Promising Long Term ," I posted last February that the longer-term outlook for the yellow metal remains in tact. Price action continued to trend in the descending channel until it bottomed in December.
What strengthens the cased for renewed optimism is that price action convincingly broke out of the descending channel and back above the 2003 trend line.
In " Gold to Retest $1,130 as Dollar Strengthens ," I pointed out last March that the dollar strengthening is trouble and the velocity of such would be meaningful. As we've seen throughout last year, U.S. multinationals have been crushed due to the strength in the DXY,
I also pointed out the descending wedge on the daily chart, which is a bullish reversal pattern. After finding support where I thought the last line of defense was before $1,000 oz., gold rallied hard and broke out.
However, even through wedges are strong indicators of price reversals, the real test is that price tends to quickly retest the broken resistance. If that hold, it could be off to the races.
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Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months.
After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated:
Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177.
Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240.
What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support.
This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model.
Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession.
Way to go, Janet!
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Gold Surprises as Dollar Gets Monkey-Hammered LowerIn " Gold Leaps Higher as Worries Mount ," I briefly pointed out how those very same institutions that championed quantitative easing policies implemented by the Federal Reserve are now coming out to proclaim quantitative easing added no substantial benefit to the real economy .
Gold was pushed lower on the assumption that central banking policy would all pan out and that the U.S. would finally achieve escape velocity; but the exact opposite is occurring. Despite the near 12 to 16 months of absolutely horrendous, even recessionary data, market participants believed that if the Fed began to tighten monetary policy then the economy must be alright.
Central bankers,misguided by classroom academics and abhorrent to real world economic dynamics, believe that if you tinker with interest rates that somehow inflation will magically begin to rise. Not so because it is real, meaningful growth that produces inflation; and it is more evident now that the these policies do not produce meaningful growth.
I mapped out the dollar's downward trajectory, which was largely based on the floundering economy and the inability for the Fed to take action that will pop asset inflation. I still believe this is based on the above factors and that the dollar will likely gather strength as the US slips into deflation.
Traders and CNBC pundits think that if deflation takes hold then gold will surely decline into the abyss. And just like their "lower gas prices equal booming consumer spending" myth, gold falling off a cliff during deflation is just as preposterous.
Gold is unique in that if can act like an insurance policy against both sides of tail risk (inflation and deflation). It is well-known that gold had a massive bull run when stagflation took hold of the US during the 1970s. Inflation ran amok.
However, nobody mentions that gold tripled, in inflation-adjusted dollar terms, during the early 1930s (the Great Depression) prior to President Roosevelt outlawing the private ownership of gold.
As I wrote last April:
" There is an assumption that the dollar and gold’s performance is strictly inverse of one another, but that is not so. The WGC (World Gold Council) indicates that between early 2014 and March 20, 2015, the dollar has gained over 20 percent while gold only fell 1.2 percent.
Historically, gold prices more than double on a weak dollar than it falls on a stronger dollar. Thus, a stronger dollar is not indicative of massive gold depreciation.
When the dollar declines, gold has appreciated 14.9 percent. Yet, when the dollar strengthens, gold has only fallen by 6.5 percent, according to the WGC. "
If you look at this chart, you will notice one thing: gold sure looks to trend with the SPX. There is an argument that this due to simple asset inflation.
Notice the massive divergence began when gold began to top in 2011. The divergence is what I call the "perception" gap.
I expect that divergence to close. It's no secret that I was right about the volatility of 2015, along with other key macro trends. I believe by the end of 2016 and 2017 is when the real fireworks begin.
Gold's recent move has been huge, and, of course, there will be profit taking. But those who follow me know that the underlying fundamentals for gold has been strengthening for some time.
(Note: the gold chart is the same I used in the above mentioned gold idea, but the minor uptrend (along with new resistance) were added).
Please follow me @lemieux_26 and check out my other ideas, which have links to previous writings.