Main Expected Path & Alt PathMapped out the most likely (solid green) and 2nd most likely (dashed black) trajectories:
Most likely:
174 by 10/19/2022
152 by 10/21
204 by 10/31
184 by 11/3
216 by 11/9/2022
2nd most likely/alt. (would take longer to play out than main path, see dates on chart):
195
162
247
215
267
Accumulation
Coming at attractive Levels to Buy
Good Day ,
Hello Traders,
Vinati Organics keeps on falling since the last 6 weeks.Weekly Low's had been made exactly at 1771.
It happened two times in the month of May and June 2022.
Value buying comes around 1771 or if it breaks that as well and goes till 1673 then accumulate for the future as its a good candidate for the future.
With 2 to 3 years horizon it can give you a good upside till 2800 to 3000 levels
Keep a Deep Stop Loss of 1314 on weekly basis.
Chart Self Explantory.
Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes.
Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any
trading decisions..
If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
BTC - Almost Halfway Through The Accumulation E've been comparing recent BTC capitulation and now accumulation at the lows with the one in 2015. They are very similar in accumulation structure as well a how deep both capitulations went. Don't get me wrong, i don't thing this is a true bottom formation like it was in 2015 leading to the next bull run, but only forming a local bottom that just happens to be very similar as one in 2015. After completing this accumulation i still expect BTC will go into a retracement that can still take us slowly back in 45-50k area, before continuing the falL.
From the comparison with todays price action wth the 2015 one, we can also expect btc to still reach the top of the range, make even higher local high (green box) and still then fall down to the bottom of the range (orange box), before starting a long awaited retracement.
It all depends on a macro picture of the economy by itself. Will see what the stock market does first, but charts do show a local bottom being set for now.
DISCLAMER:
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
eu short call from fx chat and a little educationi haven't posted an "idea" in a while; they're tedious a bit of a time waster often, but they're good to do; i'll have a little fun with this one but will have to leave it somewhat incomplete because... time; incomplete or not, this still ended up being a bit lengthy
STARTING THE WEEK WITH A VP (VOLUME PROFILE) POC ANALYSIS
since the beginning of the week, i had been calling short for eu ( EURUSD ) while the price action from the end of the previous week was bullish; i based my bearish sentiment on the previous weekly POC being naked with two other naked daily POCs below the weekly open; (if you don't know POC , learn about volume profiles; "POC" stands for point of control; it's the price range or single price where the highest volume of trading occurred during a fixed time period; naked POCs are POCs where the price has not returned yet; the market almost always revisits a POC after it's formed, so a naked POC is a very good price of interest
in the beginning of the week, i shared my bearish outlook and posted a more elaborate chart in fx chat with a weekly volume profile and five daily volume profiles and a weekly anchored vwap
in fx chat, among all the shitposting and arguing last week as usual, another chat member requested a chart from me, so i made this simplified chart for a short call on eu ( EURUSD )
at this point, this eu short call was a simple obvious call based on simple pa as highlighted; it requires barely any thought; basic levels of consciousness and vision are probably sufficient to make the call
there are two yellow highlighted rectangular zones
each zone contains regions of pa consolidations where (market) movers were building short positions; how do we know they were building shorts? they moved the price down after the consolidation to capitalize on their positions; because the price move was down, they were profiting on short positions (yes, they can make liquidity in a sense, @ name_redacted , by moving the price with market orders, which results in a chain reaction of other market participants joining in the new trend, with many participants in fear of missing out on the price movement; i'm glad i was the one to enlighten you to the term "FOMO" @ name_redacted )
the lower yellow highlighted rectangular zone covers three separate regions of pa; on the right-hand side, it shows a short consolidation (short in sense of short position, not short amount of time) as it shows sideways price ranging followed by a downward move, just like the upper yellow highlighted consolidation; i extended the lower yellow highlighted zone to the left to see what the market did in that price range recently
the middle region of the lower yellow highlighted zone includes 6 bars (on this H1 chart) with pa continuing a solid downtrend
in the left-hand side of the lower yellow highlighted zone, there was a relatively brief period of pa during an uptrend
so in this price range (the lower yellow zone), the longs (buyers) were weak compared to much stronger shorts (sellers)
on the very far right, with the most recent pa, the blue highlighted rectangular area covers the pa after i posted my short call and is consistent with my speculation
POLYSEMY, CONSOLIDATION, ACCUMULATION, AND DISTRIBUTION
because this "idea" includes consolidations and because there was a discussion of nontrivial length in chat this week about accumulation and consolidation, i'll take the liberty of writing about the important concept in linguistics called polysemy , which refers to the property of a word that has more than one (semantic) meaning (or sense); it is prudent to always remember that most words in our natural languages have more than one definition (or sense); context often makes it clear which definition is intended but not always; we learn this simple fact about language when we're very young; as we get older, often many people either forget or ignore or exploit this property of natural language, and the result is often confusion, disagreement, manipulation, or time wasting discussions; it's always best to agree (in some certain sort of way) on the exact definitions of key terms before carrying on a discussion, debate, or analysis, even with simple words that traders use often, like accumulation and distribution and consolidation
i used to teach courses for those preparing for the LSAT exam, the Law School Admission Test, and deductive logic is a significant part of that exam, which is based on strict, precise definitions of simple words that we are all used to and use every day: and, or, and if ; these words are polysemous in natural language; each word has more than one definition and the diffferent definitions are not logical consistent, so misinterpreting them can be even disastrous or at least cause confusion, heated arguments, and even delusions as a result of false beliefs
sideways, consolidation, ranging, chop, crab, rotation (to list a few) are all virtually synonyms for a period of market activity where the price ranges within relatively smaller price range with horizontal support and resistance; these are common terms that most people use for this particular market behavior in the context of technical analysis; this is not polysemy; this is an example of multiple words that share one common definition
sometimes, some people call this sideways market structure (or market behavior, however you want to look at or call it) accumulation because (so i've been told) buy and sell orders are being accumulated (whatever that means...); i think this is usually in the context of market structure theory, where it makes some sense, as the market is accumulating trades ("buy and sell orders" as some say) in a sideways, horizontal support/resistance range
more often , however, in technical analysis, the word accumulation is used in the sense of buying that often results in upward price action, or as in accumulating an asset (or any trading instrument), such as gold or Rolls Royce stock in building a position or holding in a portfolio (see investopedia definition of accumulation )
sometimes, when the sideways price action breaks and begins to trend up or down, those who use the word accumulation for the sideways market structure may use the word distribution to refer to whatever trend started, whether it's an uptrend or downtrend; they will call that pa trend distribution
more often, in technical analysis, distribution is used in the sense of selling that often results in downward price action, or as in distributing an asset (or any trading instrument) to other traders
so one take away from what may seem like a long pedantic trip of details (if you are even still reading) is that you may be talking with someone who seems like they are making no sense whatsoever when they say things like "accumulation is always followed by distribution" or "distributions can be either uptrends or downtrends" or "consolidation is always accumulation"
at least, remember those simple words that traders use so often accumulation and distribution , have multiple definitions that are not consistent with each other
there are common (and very useful) TA indicators named with those words like the ADL (Accumulation/Distribution Line); you need to know which definition is used in titles of those indicators, or you'll be lost in the sauce
and... i'll just mention that there are even several other different and common definitions in finance for the the "A" and "D" words too; i'll leave it at that
i hope you profited from a EURUSD short last week
ROUTE- long accumulationCharts that take long to develop are the ones that run the hardest once they get going. PA might seem boring, unattractive and makes you jump ship. I've made the same mistake with VRA and MATIC just before they went on a face-melting mission and I told myself I'm going to look for a chart that looked like those prior to their pumps. CHZ is another example.
All of these 3 coins have accumulated for around 650 days before expanding, so don't be surprised if you end up holding the coin longer than expected. We are currently on day 443 ranging.
Another observation we can make that it bottomed before all others on May 12th. Currently facing a breakout of the triangle.
Good luck to you all. I'm sure it will be worth it.
ETH - Wyckoff Method : What's Next?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
In today's analysis, I'll be giving out LOADS of free information🎁.
We'll study the ETHUSDT chart by using the Wyckoff Method. Trying to understand the market and it's movements may seem futile, however Richard Wyckoff identified a pattern that could easily be translated as bullish cycles, bearish cycles, and the two brief phases that happens before each. Just before a bull cycle (markup), we have accumulation . Now this may take months or even years. Then, just before the bear cycle (markdown), we see distribution phase. This is very evident across all markets - the price cannot simply go up / go down forever! So what can we do with this information? Have the courage to follow the market cycle. To make the cycles a little more clear, here it is on a macro perspective on Bitcoin:
The accumulation phase makes for THE BEST place to have scattered buying orders, in other words follow the dollar cost average method. Not familiar with this method? Check out this detailed educational masterclass:
With this chart, I propose my idea of a potential Ethereum ETH bottom by using the Wyckoff Method .The Wyckoff Method can be extremely technical and complicated, with many phases, sub-phases, sub sub phases etc. The four main phases of the market cycle are accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown . From the BTC chart I posted above, we can clearly see that we have been trading in the accumulation cycle for a while now. However, we have NOT YET BOTOMMED.
Here are some terms and definitions you may find helpful:
SC—selling climax - the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally - which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR.
ST—secondary test - in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC . It is common to have multiple STs after a SC .
What I'd be looking out for at this point, is a potential macro W-Bottom pattern to confirm the low volume selloff phase :
Consider this quote : "Successful tape reading is a study of force, it requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side."
Richard Wyckoff understood that speculating markets is more than just analysis - you also need the courage to follow through on your analysis.
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Long BTCUSDTI already warned retail traders so many times that it will make a double bottom and go up. Yet, some people act like they are very smart.
The whales are manipulating the price action to traps retails to short the bottom and reverse it up.
Investing and trading is a game of probability where the market moves up, down or sideways. Hence, the probability of a trader winning is around 33.33%.
In my previous idea, one guy thought he was smart when I talked about this accumulation and said RIP wychoff and here we are going up.
The crowd and retails are always wrong, people are too bearish at the bottom of a cycle and too bullish at the top of the cycle.
Sometimes, trading and investing is so simple with just copy and paste. But some people tried to be smart,
A lot of traders try to be right after I warned about the institution Wychoff's manipulation and some refused to listen and give into whales manipulation.
Some traders tried to aim for 16k price for BTCUSDT to buy the dip, but it never happened, the only way you can get rich is to buy at 20k and HODL.
Talked about it so many times and yet people still love to donate to the market trying to be smart.
The cryptocurrency , Bitcoin or BTCUSD is now trading at the golden support again with whales manipulating retails to short at support before doing a Wychoff's accumulation and reverse to the upside.
The manipulation was a huge success but I tried to warn the stubborn poor retails traders but yet they refused to listen. Only few listened, I hope they are in profits now.
Bitcoin prices had been ranging around at 20k as I said and now it had made a double bottom , soon it will continue to go up and everyone will get rich. A double bottom of a double bottom .
It had made an impulse correction and soon will go to 35k to fill the gap and beyond, to da moon.
On weekly, the chart had not broken the low and is making a higher high, soon it will go to the moon, buy now.
Amplify your gains by using leverage, long here and u can be filthy wealthy. Time to go all in and get rich.
Bitcoin or btcusd had made a double bottom technical structure. Bitcoin is doing the same Wychoff's accumulation and soon shall reverse the trend and bottoms here.
Do not be tempted by whales to short on bear traps!!
Warning, DO NOT short the market and get short squeezed. Buy the DIP.
I see a lot of retail traders lost money shorting bitcoin at 20k instead of buying it, this is your last buying opportunity before we move up to 35k to fill the CME gap.
The whales had been doing manipulation on bitcoin and ethereum .
It had already made a 5 waves up and will do a correction before pushing further up to 35k to fill the cme gap.
DO NOT MISS THIS last chance to buy the dip opportunity.
The whales are tempting you to short bitcoin so that they can push the prices up by doing this sideways movements.
Do not be deceived by the whales manipulation.
This manipulation by whales are food for them as retails traders getting liquidated easily.
The whales are accumulating. It is trapping breakout traders to short here, this will bottom here.
Long btc . Sick of this sideway obvious manipulation by whales.
On a higher time frame, it made a impulse and ABC correction, soon it will moon and everyone will get rich like WOW?!
This is not a signal and do not follow but a trade idea. Use your brain to trade and don't follow blindly!
Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach
BITCOIN 4H Analysis UpdateThere is no movement in the market in the last few days. The good thing is BTC holding above the support level, but the 200 MA shows a strong resistance so The market needs a good push to bring positive sentiment. New trades are risky and use a proper stop Loss.
This analysis will be updated!!!!
10.0.2.2022
Yours truly , Trader Needs
$META - FACEBOOK - FALLING WEDGE - CAPITULATION where to next?Still on track.
This chart has been the most requested in DMs for updates.
I believe META will continue its growth in the future as the METAVERSE expands and come out as a front runner in 2023.
For now we can see the declining selling volume.
Clear as day capitulation marked on the charts.
We will have it rough on the markets until the end of the year, I view this as huge OPPERTUNITY. NO FEAR!
$Meta will reduce its workforce for the first time since 2004 and it slashed the budget for its team salary.
Expanding their data center in UTAH.
Switched up their marketplace (more profits from ads from car dealers).
You can share NFTs on Facebook & Insta.
New android Chromium-web view.
New tools for creators.
I did SLIGHTLY (like barley) pivot the lower trend on the falling wedge - with more data printing daily it was necessary and now the line has been tapped multiple times for confidence.
Meta will be one of the top stocks ill be accumulating in my portfolio on the dips. This will be a long term hold for me, I will use options for day and swing trades.
If you do choose options please keep in mind to buy extended time (although more pricey) this chop is algorithmically created to burn Theta out of contracts.
(Full disclosure) If we do get a OCTOBER pump, not going to lie, I will probably sell out and buy the dip continuously afterwards.
NOBODY can predict every top and bottom, this is why the DCA (Dollar Cross Averaging) Method is widely used to ride the waves.
GOODLUCK traders!
BTCUSDT - ConsolidationHello traders!
Trading bitcoin at this time is becoming more and more difficult because volumes are decreasing and thus we are getting into a larger consolidation that accumulates a number of orders that sooner or later decide to create a large volume candle in one direction or the other.
The question is where, we will never know, but we can open positions in both directions, but we need to find a suitable opportunity to buy and sell, from which we can assume that the M15 is currently in consolidation and that is why I have marked the zones where I would like to look for a buying opportunity as well as a selling opportunity for such a consolidation, always pay attention to a good distribution of TPs so that you do not have to close any of the positions at a loss if the price turns against you, if it helps us to open positions in both directions and then a breakthrough comes, we can make good money.
IMPORTANT WARNING:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rebounds from marked zones created by trading positions of large institutions such as banks or various financial funds may not create new HH or LL and therefore it is very important to collect partial profits at least according to these rules. This will help you to keep your equity curve constantly growing and protect your funds from big drops if the price unexpectedly turns against you. But the decision is only in your hands.
I personally prefer setting up multiple TPs , here's an explanation:
1) 1:1 allows you to take a 50% position and thus secure a balance against loss in case the market turns
2) 2-5 :1 means profit (25% trade volume ), after reaching this TP I move SL to BE
3) 5-10 :1 means bonus money with rest of trade volume (again 25%)
Money is lying on the ground, just bend down for it! Be patient and wait for the price to reach a strong zone and open a position!
Long BTCUSDTInvesting and trading is a game of probability where the market moves up, down or sideways. Hence, the probability of a trader winning is around 33.33%.
In my previous idea, one guy thought he was smart when I talked about this accumulation and refused to admit that he is wrong.
The crowd and retails are always wrong, people are too bearish at the bottom of a cycle and too bullish at the top of the cycle.
Sometimes, trading and investing is so simple with just copy and paste. But some people tried to be smart,
A lot of traders try to be right after I warned about the institution Wychoff's manipulation and some refused to listen and give into whales manipulation.
Some traders tried to aim for 16k price for BTCUSDT to buy the dip, but it never happened, the only way you can get rich is to buy at 20k and HODL.
Talked about it so many times and yet people still love to donate to the market trying to be smart.
The cryptocurrency , Bitcoin or BTCUSD is now trading at the golden support again with whales manipulating retails to short at support before doing a Wychoff's accumulation and reverse to the upside.
The manipulation was a huge success but I tried to warn the stubborn poor retails traders but yet they refused to listen. Only few listened, I hope they are in profits now.
Bitcoin prices had been ranging around at 20k as I said and now it had made a double bottom , soon it will continue to go up and everyone will get rich. A double bottom of a double bottom .
It had made an impulse correction and soon will go to 35k to fill the gap and beyond, to da moon.
On weekly, the chart had not broken the low and is making a higher high, soon it will go to the moon, buy now.
Amplify your gains by using leverage, long here and u can be filthy wealthy. Time to go all in and get rich.
Bitcoin or btcusd had made a double bottom technical structure. Bitcoin is doing the same Wychoff's accumulation and soon shall reverse the trend and bottoms here.
Do not be tempted by whales to short on bear traps!!
Warning, DO NOT short the market and get short squeezed. Buy the DIP.
I see a lot of retail traders lost money shorting bitcoin at 20k instead of buying it, this is your last buying opportunity before we move up to 35k to fill the CME gap.
The whales had been doing manipulation on bitcoin and ethereum .
It had already made a 5 waves up and will do a correction before pushing further up to 35k to fill the cme gap.
DO NOT MISS THIS last chance to buy the dip opportunity.
The whales are tempting you to short bitcoin so that they can push the prices up by doing this sideways movements.
Do not be deceived by the whales manipulation.
This manipulation by whales are food for them as retails traders getting liquidated easily.
The whales are accumulating. It is trapping breakout traders to short here, this will bottom here.
Long btc . Sick of this sideway obvious manipulation by whales.
On a higher time frame, it made a impulse and ABC correction, soon it will moon and everyone will get rich like WOW?!
This is not a signal and do not follow but a trade idea. Use your brain to trade and don't follow blindly!
Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach
$SPY $SPX - #SPY #SPX Where is the S & P 500 Index headed next?On Friday September 23rd, the FED held a very important meeting to discuss the current issues that we are facing economically, while most of the comments were bleak, there were a few clues that our supply chain could finally see a light at the end of the tunnel by next year (not without heartache of course).
The largest issue we are facing is supply chain & employment retention issues.
The supply chain will be slowly improving now until the end of the year.
If you are following my social media page, I've stated that shipping prices will see a decline beginning this week (shipping is a large part of our supply chain issues).
The second large issue is understaffed production. I believe this will adjust as more corporations begin laying off workers, the job market will tighten, making entry level positions more competitive.
Real Estate will get slaughtered into the New year to make housing more affordable, but keep in mind we do have a shortage in homes (considering how many millennial/gen Xers are still living with their mamas). New home builders cannot profit with high inflation, high interest loans and a declining real estate market. The will begin to pay off debts first to avoid the new high rates and then buy back single family homes to flip for profits and/or buy back their own beaten down stocks. As FED pivots, homes will get purchased again so not at all am I expecting a 2008 scenario.
When the FED decides to pivot, the best place to hold cash will be BITCOIN, GOLD, SILVER, STOCKS, (possibly real estate if you have cash on hand) ect and at that time $DXY will drop and the Dollar will no longer be the best store of value.
I listened to the entire 2+ hours of the FED meeting and after analyzing the current data and Jerome Powell's hawkish nature, I'm NOT expecting a big bounce in the S&P 500 Index anytime soon.
The shorts are piling in and for good reason because we will definitely drop down and make a fresh low this year. A pivot in our current sentiment isn't happening next month, the bounce going into October will be much weaker than the previous one we just had, maybe just to squeeze enough shorts out of existence before actually making the plunge into the final accumulation pattern.
I will keep updating my thoughts as more data is printed but for now this is an estimate of how I see the price action flowing on The S & P 500 Index.
Happy Sunday!!
DOGE gonna BITEPA getting sandwich'd hard. Only matter of time until it explodes.
Might either directly go from here or after some sideways action for accumulation (similar to ALGO, see here )
Target
Shorterm Local 0.618 @ 0.475 (6x)
Midterm Major 1.272 @ 0.926 (13x)
Hold my beer pls
----
No financial advice, do your own research, don't be stupid
Possible Wyckoff Accumulation range on LUNCTracking this possible range of accumulation a bit early but it looks like we've hit a secondary test (ST) in phase B and possibly going into phase C with the last point of supply (LPS) being accumulated by holders and market makers. It goes with the narrative that everyone just jumping onboard with staking and becoming a validator node for the network.
Long BTCUSDTInvesting and trading is a game of probability where the market moves up, down or sideways. Hence, the probability of a trader winning is around 33.33%.
A lot of traders try to be right after I warned about the institution Wychoff's manipulation and some refused to listen and give into whales manipulation.
Some traders tried to aim for 15k to buy the dip, but it never happened, the only way you can get rich is to buy at 20k and HODL.
Bitcoin or BTCUSD is now trading at the golden support again with whales manipulating retails to short at support before doing a Wychoff's accumulation and reverse to the upside.
Bitcoin prices had been ranging around at 20k as I said and now it had made a double bottom , soon it will continue to go up and everyone will get rich. A double bottom of a double bottom.
It had made an impulse correction and soon will go to 35k to fill the gap and beyond, to da moon.
On weekly, the chart had not broken the low and is making a higher high, soon it will go to the moon, buy now.
Amplify your gains by using leverage, long here and u can be filthy wealthy. Time to go all in and get rich.
Bitcoin or btcusd had made a double bottom technical structure. Bitcoin is doing the same Wychoff's accumulation and soon shall reverse the trend and bottoms here.
Do not be tempted by whales to short on bear traps!!
Warning, DO NOT short the market and get short squeezed. Buy the DIP.
I see a lot of retail traders lost money shorting bitcoin at 20k instead of buying it, this is your last buying opportunity before we move up to 35k to fill the CME gap.
The whales had been doing manipulation on bitcoin and ethereum .
It had already made a 5 waves up and will do a correction before pushing further up to 35k to fill the cme gap.
DO NOT MISS THIS last chance to buy the dip opportunity.
The whales are tempting you to short bitcoin so that they can push the prices up by doing this sideways movements.
Do not be deceived by the whales manipulation.
This manipulation by whales are food for them as retails traders getting liquidated easily.
The whales are accumulating. It is trapping breakout traders to short here, this will bottom here.
Long btc . Sick of this sideway obvious manipulation by whales.
On a higher time frame, it made a impulse and ABC correction, soon it will moon and everyone will get rich like WOW?!
This is not a signal and do not follow but a trade idea. Use your brain to trade and don't follow blindly!
Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach