Accumulation
WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION - PHASE ATechnically this is the structure I'm looking for, confirmation should come with the secondary test (ST).
But, my feelings tell me we haven't hit bottom yet. I speculate that the loss of the 20k support will make this accumulation happen with the Selling Climax (SC) hitting the 13k support, eventually with a BearTrap touching 6k.
DUOL - Duolingo, Inc (IDEA)Solid setup emerging as this stock has based all year long and has major signs of accumulation since its earnings report in mid-May as it forms the right side of a base. Volatility remains contracted near the breakout level, which is a big plus.
Potential entry trigger - break over last weeks highs.
Monthly Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I hope you're doing well.
On the monthly chart of Bitcoin and the analysis of its Accumulation/Distribution indicator, we can observe that the slope of the A/D line is showing some potential bottoming.
Whenever the slope of EMA and SMA of the line turns positive, we can say the probability of the bitcoin bottom is very high.
But all of this depends on the inflation rate of the US. If FOMC announces that the inflation is tamed and the rate goes down for the first time, a market switch could happen.
Thanks for your time.
Regards, Hashemi.
HUBS updateI posted the idea yesterday on turkey 101, here is the precise expectations:
- drop to ~353 by mid next week, small bounce then continuation to the 332-340 range to complete wave 4 before August concludes
- wave 5 will be around 438-456 and realized in December
Cool company, among the most volatile names, went from 90 in Mar 2020 because of covid to 860s in 1.5 years - got discounted appropriately (perhaps over-discounted) and now investors have seen what it can do - earnings supported that and reaction was over exuberant, now need to retrace and will get bot up in the 330-350 range in coming weeks. meantime short it
Should get InterestingI posted bigger picture bullish predictions for ETH end of June and July when it was under 1100 predicting a rally to 1700-1800 - my expectations then was derived from the accumulation structure I observed around the bottom and those were markup targets. At the time my upper resistance was 2333.
Given the information contained in the price action since then I can now give more precise predictions near term:
- Expecting an expanded flat (EF) to form here over the next few weeks that will provide a structure allowing attempted break of my adjusted resistance of 2265 at or around the intersection of the downtrend resistance (light red line) since November
- More upside to 2012-2172 in the coming days before the A wave of the EF begins - the A wave will likely conclude in the upper 1600s
- The B wave would then test the 2265 resistance for the first time and that will be expected to fail resulting in a rapid sell off to upper 1300s-low 1500s (wave C of the EF), which will complete the bullish impulse and subsequent corrective wave off the lows (I didn't draw in the count but we are currently in wave 5 (should conclude around 2012-2172)).
This is just one scenario that is most likely based on my control charts and level mapping.
- alternatively we go ahead and test the 2265 resistance from here and then begin a corrective wave (the levels will change slightly if so but essentially the drop would be from 2265 to 1300-1600 range, and then re-attempt breakout).
- The common expectation I've seen is that this is something along the lines of bear market rally, and thats possible, however, the accumulation would not have been as strong as we've seen. Also, even if it is this latter case the overall market is over-shorted and a squeeze could unfold (or has already started) making my predictions still correct albeit for the wrong reasons.
I haven't missed on ETH recently but we'll see. The black path is my expected projection.
Ethereum To $2200 But Then What? As the merge from proof of work to proof of stake gets closer for Ethereum there has been a bullish relief wave hitting the market. I do believe that Ethereum is leading the charge in this relief rally as the merge will have a major impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum on the weekly looks like it's on an up trend to hitting $2200, but be cautious because I do believe we're still in the early stages of a bear market. I could be wrong but as I've been saying we haven't been moving sideways for an extended period of time just yet and the market is still very precarious.
I do believe we will eventually revisit a $1000 Ethereum or lower again as we go deeper into the bear cycle. As of now I'm waiting until we turn red again to dollar cost average in. The whole game plan is to accumulate heavy as close to the bottom as possible. I like others believe we still have a ways to go before we have a true bottom. Take it with a grain of salt because I could be wrong.
JasmyCoin: Descending Triangle But The Price Action Is BullishJasmy has bottomed 3 times within this inheritly Bearish Pattern while Bullishly Diverging each time with the 3rd bottom putting in a slghtly higher low and it is now broken above the supply line here and may look to Square-Up to the upside so long as it holds above the nearby Moving Averages on the Daily.
U - breakout soon?After hitting the low on 11 May, U traded in a sideway range between 32-48 for almost 3 months now, forming a possible base. The higher volume during this period suggest there could be some accumulation going on.
However with earnings expected out tomorrow, there is a always risk of a nasty surprise.
Hence to be conservative, wait for results to be out.
Should the stock rise after earnings, buy near the break or wait for the first pullback.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
Wyckoff still playing out on BTCI have only been in the market 18 months, and have tried/tested many indicators. The only one that has remained consistently true up until this day, is the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. It hasn't really faltered at all since people started drawing the comparison early 2021. If it remains true, we will hit ATH before the cycle is done, sometime around the end of June. That said, 18 months is not a long time. I just know what I know, and I know Wyckoff has been freaky accurate since I entered the market.
BIG Money Accumulating SHOP shares? Wyckoff Accumulation FormingOpposite the Wyckoff Distribution is the Wyckoff Accumulation. This is a sign of buying from big money. It shares many elements of the distribution and is broken into 5 phases. I will briefly outline them below...
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Wyckoff Accum Phases
Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. We should see volume taper and spreads widen (price-volume divergence). Big money will scoop up shares to create the AR on increased volume. A trading range is created using SC and AR.
Phase B: Is the actual accumulation phase. Prices are low and easy to grab. Expect the price to ping pong within the trading range as big money optimizes their average. Expect many stop hunts and false breakouts to free up shares.
Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “big money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. The shakeout is the optimal entry point but it does not always occur.
Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone.
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I believe the following points are in line with the phases above:
Decreasing volume and a widening spread before the start of the range. It is then followed by buying on increased volume. We have already seen Phase A.
Phase B is the accumulation. Note the increases in volume on the up moves but decreases in volume on the down moves. I think Phase B is mostly over if it has not been completed already.
Phase C will often have a shakeout. SHOP reported earnings and dumped to the lower end of the trading range. Although it did not break the range, I think this was the anticipated shakeout. We have since climbed higher on average volume and have now broken the upper range.
It is reasonable to assume we are in or transitioning to phase D. It is important that we see some form of consolidation to confirm the upward move. If we do not, we could see more tests of supply and moves back into the trading range. We are currently above the 50 Dynamic Moving Average but below the 100 EMA. This shows that the medium-term trend is flipping bullish but the longer-term trend is still down. The vol osc is also showing increases in volume supporting the move upward. Higher time frames also indicate that this trading range formed at previous support.
Overall, I think the stars are aligning to take this stock higher. Eager to hear your thoughts.
US100 Long 1h Wyckoff Trailing StopThis analysis is based on the scenario that we are about to complete the schematic with a following rally.
A possible position can be placed like:
-50% of total position size on the LPS after we have seen some Sign Of Strength.
-50% of total position size on the LPS after we have seen the Sign Of strength of the smaller area. (something more that 12865)
Scaling stop loss starting (11698) and after the final position becoming something less than (12380).
Target being the good reference point of (14248).
EURUSD - Wyckoff Cycle In Action!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
I found EURUSD Weekly chart a great practical example of Wyckoff's Theory.
As per Wyckoff Price Cycle, we are most probably entering in an accumulation phase.
and yes, it is still too early to judge, as for the accumulation phase to start, we will need a consolidation as highlighted in purple.
If we get our consolidation, for the markup to start, we will need a momentum candle close above the gray zone.
Meanwhile, until the bulls take over, we are still bearish and EURUSD can still trade lower to form a new lower low, then an accumulation phase.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH/USD 1h Position LongMy position based on the re-accumulation schematic it the following:
3 entries
1/3 of the total risk amount on the breakout. (1629.12)
1/3 of the total risk amount after the retest will be confirmed. (waiting)
In this case I must comment that the flag existing right not is not the one that will give the confirmation, but a pull back done from further away will give us this position. A small consolidation area there or a move upwards and then a sharp move will do the work.
1/3 with the breaking of the swing high that will also be provided as before. (waiting)
Stop below the support line of our negotiation area. (1477.53)
Target profit on the resistance line of the next negotiation area. (2072.45)