BTC UPDATE #BTC update
As clearly plotted on the chart, we have printed lower lows since our last run on $48k. Since then we have had some tries at reversing the trend but we didn't manage to keep the higher highs.
We are now in a historical accumulation zone ranging from $37500 - $39100 and breaking the local structure can allow the price to test the descending trendline that has formed along the way of the downdrend.
For the moment we do not have any clear bullish signs and structures on high timeframes, we will need to continue to look at faster timeframes as 1h and 15minutes in order to find scalps.
What are we looking for to become bullish?
1 - Break the accumulation zone, plot a higher high, this would allow us to start thinking about longing on TF>15m
2 - Break the trendline - This would open the way on 4h based trades.
Fundamentals
FED messed the market once again, with an interest rate of 50BP , every time they make a rate hike announcement, the market goes into panic/paralysis.
Final word:
These levels look juicy and could potentially host a lot of ALTcoin portfolio entries, however keep in mind that we have no bullish confirmation yet.
Accumulation
Eeee that was dirtyPosted a recent idea on BTC nearing the final part of accumulation phase, mentioned the smaller time frames a good indicator of what’s to come on the daily time frame.
What’s in the way of 75k? 50k.. what’s in the way of 50k? 41 and 47k. Looks like they’re about to take out that 41k in style. Will be great if they do it before the market open tomorrow because SPY/QQQ will follow and JAC.
This idea alone is nothing more than a follow up from previous post, panning out as EXPECTED but still needs confirmation
NFA
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Disc - Am not a SEBI registered. Please do your own analyses before taking position. This post is only educational purposes and not a trading recommendation.
Likely going to save the whole market next weekAccumulation. About to JAC
Can see same pattern at 1 minute interval if you look now it will give you a indication of what to expect in coming weeks at daily level.
Very similar end to phase D back in mid 2021 before it ran big.
Key levels near term are 37700 support, resistance at around 41k (will break easily I think). Then to 47k, 50k and will need to retest these as support before it really goes
Not financial advice. This is how shorts get burnt though, every post I’ve seen is missing the huge evidence unfolding that accumulation phase is finalizing.
If 37700 does break it has support around 34-36k and it those break I’ll become bearish to 29k.
Good signals for bull sideOn weekly chart, ADA has been swing in range 0.75 - 1.2
First, that's a positive divergence on RSI.
Second, ADA's made a hammer candle at 0.75 and seem it's retesting that level.
Third, seller's volume is draining.
And finally, ADA is coming to support zone in ascending channel. That's 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement.
ADA can down below 0.75 and bounce back to rally.
Unless, ADA might be down to 0.31.
What next, wait and see
Is FMG in a Livermore Accumulation Cylinder?So I'm most of the way through Jessie Livermore's classic books on audible Reminiscences of a Stock Operator & Jesse Livermore’s Methods of Trading in Stocks . Looking back at this FMG chart could this be considered a Livermore accumulation cylinder? Love to know your thoughts! Comment / Find me on Twitter.
Dark Pool Buy Zones™Some traders try to watch Level 2 data to discern when the large-lot orders come through to get an idea of when the big institutions are accumulating in the Dark Pools, but you really don’t need that. Plus, whether that’s accurate is questionable since Dark Pool transactions are reported way after they were transacted.
“Dark Pool buy zones” is a term I coined because Dark Pools use precise controlled orders that trigger automatically over extended periods of time. Since the Buy Side Institutions using the Dark Pools are primarily buying for the long term, price can sometimes drop down before moving up, creating a range in the price action, what I call “the buy zone.”
When you learn to recognize the Dark Pool Candlestick and Indicator Patterns, you can be ready for the bottom to develop and look for Dark Pool accumulation patterns to plan your trading.
Below is an example. Ford is still falling, but the Dark Pool buy zone support is close. I’ll be waiting to see how the bottom develops around that level before making my decision to trade.
Happy TechniTrading!
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SNX/USDT: Accumulation zone!As shown on chart SNX is trading near its confluence area, and forming a rounded bottom structure on daily time frame signifying the upside potential is good for the coin.
I'd say its good time to accumulate, if market will provide good liquidity this coin has further more potential.
Key levels mentioned on chart
CHFJPY continuation moveProbably one of my favorite pairs to trade because of the clean schematics it presents. We confirmed last week a re-accumulation by breaking the 135.600 area. I was waiting for price near the 133.800 area for evidence of buyers accumulating orders to continue CHFJPY`s massive bullish move. During London PA, we saw that evidence and on LTF`s the presence of yet another clean type 1 accumulation. My entry was based of my Slingshot area (re-accumlation) and the extreme of the type 1 as a test of my spring. Price gave a very nice reaction from my SC. My further expectation is now to play a test of the larger schematic with targets above 136.200. If price fails to make that high and instead trades lower, I will look for price to show the same signs around 131.500-132.500.
BTCUSDT accumulation zones Hello Everyone
I am seeing only 2 options at the moment, after the last run to 43k was easily stopped by bears.
We are now barely under 40k.. and I see 2 great bounce zones:
📌Either a bounce from 1st green square; $38200-36000 serving as the bottom of the blue bullish sequence that we have seen for the past 1.5 years.
📌Or a bounce from the more "bearish" red line, representing a global line going all the way from 2018 to 2022. Would still be considered a "healthy" correction by the way. These red lines line up around 29k, but to be sure we have our 5% cryptowallet buy ready at 31k (to not miss it).
27000-30000 is highly recommended for accumulating cryptocurrencies and we will probably add more than the 5% that we have planned now, if we reach it. (Also altcoins)
📍Since we are only 43% crypto after heavily selling crypto this week, like XMR in the peak ($283!!)
And BTC ETH after retesting our $40700 stop limits.. we can accumulate deeper once more. However, I hope we will reach ground soon.. and get a bullmarket. That is ofcourse still the best scenario for everyone of us.
#schedule is;
📍2% btc planned at 38200-37000
📍1% btc planned at 35000-36000
📍5% btc planned at 31000
📍X% altcoins planned at 31000-27000. Will be called by then.
📍10% btc buy planned at 22k for a "scam wick". (We plan to resell this 10% buy fast in the bounce to 25-29k)
And to kill time in the meantime + to make losses in the leg down as low as possible we try to do futures calls for damage control. Last week we did 3 succesful ones: APEUSDT short, XMR short and small BTC long at 40k. All 3 made us 10%+ profits.
Also we try to sell at every sudden spotcoin bounce, like our XMR holdings that hit $289. Fortunately we sold them all off right in time it seems 🔥
This way.. we can breathe during the whole bearmarket. And hopefully you are all patient enough to see a bullmarket come again with fully accumulated spot wallets to moon with. Remember that we haven't seen a decent altcoin season too for a couple of years. Some of guys haven't seen the hectic of the whole market just buying every coin in the top 500, just for the sake of "hasn't mooned yet". It's hilarious. Stick around with me, we'll see those days in the future together.
Hodl the line boys!
50k-52k & start of a cycle ?Holla, wanted to make an update about where we are right now, and what I would expect. This is more of a ‘’ what’s up post’’ , since conclusive sign have yet been made, proving the start of a cycle. As a BC, which would be signaling officially a stop of the current trend. And will make another post following up whatever is gonna unfold when market move some more.
Will leave a the bottom of the idea a scribble, and some explication overall about what I would expect on the longer term and what I see on the bigger time frame.
As for right now, I see the market being into a minor re-accumulation between 46k & 48k, from where I would expect a push to 50k-52k. Then from there, I wanna evaluate what happen, but I will expect a BC ( into a scenario that price get stop at that area) and then a move back to test the 47k-45k area. But this is still early to tell.
For having the current re-accumulation confirmed, I do need to see a break upside 48k & retest of the range to consider 50k-52k. Considering the heavy supply that did still show up at the area during the 28 & 29 th March. Which still made possible demand getting absorbed there for price going all the way back to 43k-45k.
And now, about the longer term.
It is looking exciting. This is just a speculation, but I do will expect some time of re-accumulation between 42k-52k. But as I said, the cycle did not show an actual confirmation that it started yet.
Here a scribble of the scenario. Only being scribble since I am against drawing any time of trying to predict a cycle.
WEEKLY
But the weekly does look good for it. And signaling that heavy buying is in fact coming in, and the overall player of the market right now. As for the weekly;
Will make my writings bigger next time, so it's easier to read and nobody goes blind.
HOW-TO: Accumulation StrategyIn this idea I will make an in-depth tutorial on how to use the Accumulation Strategy and how to automate it.
█ PRESENTATION
The strategy is in the form of an invite-only script providing backtesting and alerts.
Here is a link to the script page:
Goals
• Steady profits. Smalls profits over time and no drawdown as long as you don't sell in loss.
• Peace of mind. It is meant to be a "set it up once and let it run for a while" automated strategy.
• No loss. Never sell in loss.
Drawbacks
• Small profits. No leverage, just spot trading.
• Lengthy trades. Trades can take up to several days or even weeks in worst case scenario. We will see how to avoid that.
Strategy
• Use volatility. Take advantage of small waves in the market.
• Buy the dips. Use a combination of technical indicators to buy bottoms or oversold prices.
• Accumulation. Buy small amounts several times as price moves to better position yourself.
• Take profit from total volume. Sell everything once price is in profit at the configured percentage value.
█ BACKTESTING
Backtesting is the process of creating a strategy.
Finding a good pair
• By Market Cap. Take a category you are comfortable with (DeFi, Metaverse, DAO, etc) then look at coins in the top 10 market cap.
• Volatility. The more volatile the coin is, the better.
• Ascending/Sideways trend. This is where the strategy will work the best. We will see just below how to filter off bear markets.
• Pick a timeframe. Usually from 5m to 30m, can be higher or lower. I look at the average bar, I like something around 0.5-1% bar height, the chart should not have too much noise, otherwise go higher timeframe. Though not too high, since we want to take advantage of the volatility.
Build your entries
You first have to create "entries" that will then end up being a buy signal, after passing through some optional filters.
• Entry settings
• Go Long/Go Short
The indicator allows to trade both sides of the market. In these examples, I will only go long-only for simplicity.
• Max active deals
This is the maximum consecutive buy signals allowed for the strategy. Example with 10: the strategy will buy up to 10 times until take profit is hit.
• Minimum bar delay between deals
Puts a minimum delay between each entry signal, in bars.
• Minimum price difference in % between deals
Sets a minimum price percentage between each entry signal. Leave at 0 to disable.
• STOCH & RSI entries
Creates entries when the RSI or STOCH crosses below a configurable value. The length and resolution of the oscillators are configurable.
• Other entries
Signals using some of my other custom indicators are BUILT-IN:
• Top & Bottoms
• Higher lows, Lower lows
• RSI Divergences
Entries are combined using a OR logical gate. I usually go with RSI and STOCH entries on higher timeframe using the resolution input, then add Top & Bottoms or Higher lows if I feel like it needs more entries.
Once you have chosen a combination of entries, let's move on to the filters.
• Trend Filter
You can pick a trendline from a list, usually a simple EMA 200 will do the trick. Using slope change or price cross, it will filter off entries if the market wave is bearish, thus avoiding taking risky trades.
• MTF Trend Filter
The same thing, but higher timeframe. It is used to filter with the market wave, meaning the more global trend. It is a good habit to combine the 2 trend lines to drastically reduce the risk. The Adaptive Tilson T3 is one of my favorites, combined with the CROSSOVER condition.
• RSI filter
Useful with entries other than RSI to filter overbought entries. Use a higher timeframe to filter more aggressively.
I would advice to use all 3 filters if you can. It will prevent getting into lengthy trades as we will see below.
Adjusting
• Backtest parameters
First you should go to the backtest parameters tab. Here is what is used in this example:
• Initial capital: 1000 €
• Order size: 100 € (the max deals is 10 here, total deals should not exceed initial capital)
• Pyramiding: 10 (the number of max deals)
• Commission: 0.075 % (Binance spot trading)
• Take Profit
Configure the take profit, in price %. I usually go with something from 1 to 4 %. In some cases, activating the trailing TP can be interesting.
• Backtest results
In addition to the strategy tester, the indicator has a backtest panel containing useful information. Here are some of it:
• Net Profit (% and fixed)
Useful to see how volatile a pair is compared to others.
• Avg # Bars in a deal
Average number of bars a trade can take to be completed. < 100 - great, > 100 - can be improved, > 200 - bad
• Avg # Days in a deal
Same information but in days.
• Max # days in a deal
Maximum number of days a trade took to be completed. < 30 - great, > 30 - can be improved, > 60 - bad
Example of settings that can be improved:
The Avg # bars and Max # Days in a deal are flashing red and orange. It means it can be improved.
By adding the 3 filters, increasing the stoch entries timeframe and reducing the take profit to 3%, we are getting a much more secure strategy:
All the settings are in green, we know that over 421 days, the maximum days a trade took is 13.78, and a trade takes 1 day in average.
█ AUTOMATION
When you subscribe on my website, you unlock access to the indicators but also an automation system for Binance.
The system is using the indicator alerts to automatically place orders on Binance using their SPOT Trading API. You can find a tutorial here .
Create a bot
The first step is to create a bot for your strategy.
Make sure you have enough capital in your account for the strategy.
Set the order size/quantity with the same value as in the indicator backtest parameters.
Create the alert
I recommend to create one chart layout per strategy.
Once you are done setting up the indicator, set the alert messages. You will find the text fields at the bottom of the indicator input settings.
You will typically need to fill "Long Entry" with the buy message, and "Long Take Profit" with the sell message.
Once you have done that, save your chart.
Click add alert on the indicator.
Select the condition "Alert() function calls only".
Tick "Webhook URL" and set the URL. It can be the one from my bot system or if you use another bot system with webhooks it will work too.
Give your alert a name and click create.
Make sure the alert is created in the alert tab.
The alert will save the indicator, settings and timeframe at the moment you create it. If you decide to change an indicator setting, you must remake the alert.
Fees
If you trade on Binance, I recommend to enable BNB Spot trading fees, and always have a few BNB on your account to pay for the fees.
That way, you can use a sell 100% quantity order without needing to take fees into account, unless you are using the strategy to trade BNB. In this case, use something like sell 99% in your sell message.
Supervise
Once your strategy is running, you can supervise it in the strategy tester in real time, in the alert logs and in the bot logs.
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█ SCRIPT ACCESS
Indicator and automation tools access can be purchased on my website. The link is in my signature below.
█ SAMPLE USE CASES
I will update this HOW-TO idea whenever I backtest a new pair, sharing the configuration and a link to a shared chart that you can copy and edit yourself.
Example on MANA/USDT:
Link to the chart: www.tradingview.com
Thanks for reading. More to come below.
Huobi Token is in good consolidationHi Friends,
As we can see in Weekly Timeframe chart Huobi Token ( HUOBI:HTUSDT ) is in good consolidation I think it is accumulating. Most of the time such long consolidation will give a breakout towards the upside.
Huobi Token ( HUOBI:HTUSDT ) is the native token of the cryptocurrency exchange Huobi Global. It is a decentralized digital asset based on the Ethereum blockchain and is ERC-20 compliant. Huobi Token was first launched in January 2018. So it has been some time since it launched. Old crypto projects have high trust.
Remember this is weekly TF trade so you have to HODL Huobi Token for weeks if not months. Also, don't forget to manage your risk as the crypto market is highly volatile in nature. Share your opinion in the comment section.
Hibernating DOGE starting to stir?DOGE doesn't quite seem ready yet, but it looks close to turning the corner. It has recently entered a macro accumulation zone--something we haven't seen for DOGE since early 2021. For those who want some exposure, now might be a good time to DCA in. The 200 EMA could be too strong to break here and I'm expecting a bit of a pullback. I'm waiting until I see an obvious buy signal in this accumulation zone--specifically, Bullish divergence on the 4-hr chart.
Good Luck
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
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