Another Wyckoff Accumulation Phase testing 40k?As institutional investors have started to get involved in crypto, we have been seeing more and more similarities to the stock markets and as such, we saw our first Wyckoffian patterns February to April in 2021. Followed by a very obvious accumulation pattern.
As we have recently had two distributions to follow, it looks like we might enter another accumulation phase. While I do believe there is a chance we could see a strong V-shaped recovery and continue this bull market, we have to account for the possible play that is at hand.
IF we fail to get over the bull market support band on a weekly timeframe as shown in this chart by a 20w sma and 21w ema, we might enter such an accumulation phase.
What are my price levels based on?
Since 2011, if we held the bull market support band at a certain point, we have never again went below it. As you can see, we did test the Band for 10 days at the end of September.
We have seen previous accumulations and distributions which have formed significant points of support and resistance
If we do get into accumulation, it would be wise to DCA throughout and hold some cash in stablecoins for a possible spring event (orange path). Should there be none, at least you DCA'd through the accumulation.
I still believe we will see higher prices by Q1 or Q2 of 2022, as the cycles do seem to lenghten. 69k is unlikely to have been the top.
Accumulation
BTC: TOLD YOU ABOUT THIS BREAKOUT ALREADY, WHAT'S NEXT?Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Welcome to this BTC/USD Weekly update. This is called the power of TA. Posted a BTC chart (Link given below) on 10th of March and told you that BTC will broke out on 28th March. Now you see the result. Now you can see the result, exactly on the same day, BTC breaks it's accumulation zone after almost 3 months.
Now, what's next?
1) BTC must hold the $45k-$46k level for further upward continuation.
2) BTC might come to retest $45k level and bounced back immediately. Also, that will be the very good opportunity to long many Altcoins.
3) The next important resistance for BTC is at $53k-$54k which is not broken since 4 months.
What I'm expect?
I'm expecting a good bounce in BTC and many altcoins in the next 2-3 months. My targets for BTC is not $100k or $200k, at first I'm expecting it to hit around $72k
If you like my analysis then hit the like button and follow.
Also, share your views in the comment section.
Thank You!
Dow30 going up?
Good day guys
Here is my analysis for Dow30 US30. Indices are recovering losses due to the correction as you will see on the daily timeframe of this market.
Retail traders will probably lower the price, as they see the market is still down, shorting the market. It's where market makers, wait for their orders to trigger for a long, flushing out the seller. very similar to my trading idea on BTCUSD. See below Related Ideas
Good look guys
Happy trading!
GLMR.Usdt (Y22.P1.E2).Accumulation hypothesisHi All,
It might be a case while BTC looks for the bottom which might be close to 34-35k, then this model makes sense.
Similar to KNC, I would think this will have some bottoming formation. The question is how long ? and what is BTC going to do.
This is not meant to be taken serious, but it would be nice to look back at and see how the forecasting model was against the real. The time scale is definitely a guess as well.
All the best,
S.SAri
KNC model, early stages on its release
CHZ Re-accumulation, next targetsCHZ is ranging since March 2021 – almost 1 year. Support at $0.20 was tested many times before it breaks and price drops at $0.16. After a couple of weeks of accumulation, price pass through $0.20 to $0.24 confirming in this way the shakeout/spring.
The are some long shadow candlesticks between May and June 2021 - an indication that large traders entered the market and moved the price quick and high. Long shadows form the demand area. With the last two weeks accumulation (LTF 4H), it seems that all buying orders in the demand zone ($0.16 – 0.213) is filled.
Because consolidation is forming in a long period of time, if we flip $0.80, a conservative target is at $1.50 (161.8% Fib extension) and a more optimistic at $2.36.
If you go long near $0.23:
Great Risk/Reward ratio: 4.58 (take profit $0.58) – 16.57(take profit $1.50) - 28.34 (take profit $2.36)
Stop loss: $0.155
Pick A or BIs price accumulating or redistributing?
Price is moving within this range?
Where to next?
I’m inclined to believe A is the higher chance of of probabilities
I haven’t even checked but it looks like price is waiting for news catalyst to make a dramatic move, either way.
Pay attention to 4 hour candle closes
THE STOCK MARKET IS BULLISH AGAIN... For now!Hey guys,
Utilising the S&P500, we can determine a very bullish response the Fed Funds Rate increase of 25 basis points. Jeremy Powell ensured the US to have a very strong economy and labour market which has placed trust in the overall stock market.
Have we seen the top of the market or will we be seeing another high to be made? I believe if we see another high, it will be 'fakeout' move to grab upper side liquidity, followed by a large push back to the downside. It seems absurd to me that the market can continue to make high highs with 7.9% inflation and interest rates of 0.25% coupled with insane oil/gas prices and supply chain disturbances. Not to mention the national debt and conflicts between Russia and the rest of the world.
I will do a post shortly on the business cycles and show why the Euphoric gains are now over.
Love, peace, Seb.
SANDBOX - $SANDI'm looking to accumulate Sand into my portfolio, so i'm posting this to see if i can see any patterns forming in how $Sand does in this current market state.
Short Term - I see Sand retracing a bit from today's HSBC news pump back to retest the previous support; the news helped break out of the current down trend. I'm expecting to see sideways action for the next month leading into the summer.
Long term - DCA during the dips and if it dips into the green area of support, then i will be buying more to lower my average.
Not financial advice - always do your own research.
This chart is for speculation purposes only.
Reaccumulation SchematicWyckoff schematics come in many different forms but originate from a basis of 3 other schematics: distribution, accumulation, and reaccumulation. Reaccumulation patterns consist of many creeks and channels. As you may see here, the minor creek has been broken with a lot of volume. Then, after a big jump--wide spread and high volume-- we saw another break of the major creek creating a major sign of strength. This momentum was enough to confirm a breakout and create an LPS to add to a profitable position. The LPS is shown here in the circle. It is hard to see on a 15 min time frame, but it does exist there for a perfect low risk entry.
BITCOIN ACCUMULATION | UPDATEIt's time for an update I think!
Not long ago I made a chart about the accumulation phase of Bitcoin .
I expected a higher high, and then a drop with a few small upmoves, but a clear downside pattern.
Well, we definitely saw up movement. But we didn't made a higher high. So that was something I didn't expect, but which is okay. ( BTC /EUR made a higher high tho, but ok)
But after the pump, we went down. As I expected we saw again a small upmove, and then down again, then a small upmove yesterday, and now i think its time to go fully down.
Fully down means to the 33k range. I would expect a lower low, but you never know haha.
Lets see!
I'm curious what u guys think!
Let me know!
Before the increases come, everyone will sit in silence. 🕗52day🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Hello everyone,
Are you already loaded? Bullrun right there!
During the accumulation a flag was drawn, possible continuation of the downward trend after the retest from below (red line).
The consequence will be a drop to the next shopping zone of $ 29,500, where there is strong support and many BUY orders.
A dozen or so days ago, everyone was counting on this decline, now, after 52 days of accumulation, the mood has changed.
If the price breaks up and breaks 0.382 Fibonacci, we should easily reach 50k, then I will be convinced of further increases.
Increasingly higher lows and lows will be a great confirmation of a change in the trend.
Then I will also create a futures order, which I will inform about in this post.
Bitcoin moves in the zone between 45k-33k. A year ago, during the last similar moves, 42k-29k. So does Bitcoin today have 3k-4k bottoms higher than recently?
This would prove the creation of a higherlow, in a very long term it would be a great proof of the creation of a SUPERCYCLE.
- SayMoney, so buy or sell?
- At times like today? Let everyone answer for himself.
Comment and like,
Greetings
BTC fakeout and continuation of Wyckoff accumulationAs you can see, we're at the same point as we were in the last wyckoff accumulation, where we broke out of a descending channel only to be rejected at the RSI trendline.
I've long been observing that the current drop is a smaller version of the May 2021 accumulation phase and at this very moment, it is behaving the exact same way. We're probably going to get rejected and bleed down to the 43-41k.
When comparing the fakeout of May 2021, we reached the upper levels of the Automatic Reaction (AR). If we were to follow this path, we will see a rejection around 51K.
History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
AMC Wykoff Accumulation AMC looks to have found a floor at these levels. It’s a high demand stock has a lot of shorts. This is the longest floor amc has been in, in a while. And CEO came out and said Retail owns the float. So the downward pressure has to me mostly shorts. Which this long floor it’s possible this could be a Wykoff Accumulation method to break out of this supply and demand zone. Which right now is a 30% percent just to break the top of the chart. If it test and continues to the next resistance area that a 100% increase in price. Wykof accumulation charts I’ve seen in the past happened in times where the stock, or crypto is under a lot of downward pressure mixed with a lot of talk about upward pressure. If there’s people wanting that upward movement and technicals also have reasons to move the price upwards, the chance of this being a Wykoff accumulation is very high from the info I gather about it.
BTC-USDT Accumulation zone(Wyckoff phases-phase C)Would continue my previous two posts,bitcoin price now in phase(C)what we know about this phase???
Phase C:
During phase C, spring (shakeout)the price below the support level of the trading range quickly reverses and moves back into the trading range.You can consider spring as a period of the coin below the support zone to attract traders and investors.Its a final attempt to purchase the coin at the lowest rates before the rates rise again.its also notable that the bear trap attracts inexperienced investors to sell coins at low rates and wait the dump which evantually does not occur and price instead rise from that point without actually reaching that dumping point.In simple terms, spring (shakeout)is not always useful as trading volume remains unpredictable.
EURUSD Full Analysis 15 MINPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you enter carefully the price behavior with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
red lines are most strong.
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Bitcoin's Big Build-Up!Bitcoin is rangebound. This is the prime technical case we've been working on over the last weeks.
It has blown one chance after the other at breaking out, and it's now entirely confirmed that its consolidation is steadily building up.
However this range will ultimately look is of less importance. Diagonal lines of all sorts are much too discretionary to be reliable. But mind you, just because there's plenty of room for subjective interpretation, it does by no account mean all theories are correct. In the end, only ONE way is the right way.
The way I personally like to approach "diagonal lines in progress" is by applying a maximum range thereof, like below.
Ultimately, the more information we get, the more accurate and reliable the lines.
There are several things that speak loudly in technical favor of Bitcoin's rangeboundness.
First of all, upon last Sunday's closing we got ourselves a lower bullish red closing on the RSI. Immediately upon this signal, the price took off by +14% during Monday's trading. However, it's ultimate failure for the RSI to break above the upper bearish blue line was all we needed to know to confirm the drastically weakened momentum.
Secondly, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index has fluctuated a bit too wildly to convey a probable reversal. The a-bit-too-fast-and-optimistic sentiment recovery amidst the sudden pumps were much too high to mark the birth of a bullish reversal.
What we'd rather be looking for in terms of a sustainable longevity upside is for a disbelief rally. This one is simple. It's look something like this:
Moreover, whenever an underlying fluctuates between moving averages with ease, it is a sure sign of range-bound characteristics. Contrary, whenever an underlying is trending it has a spooky tendency of finding support on a wide range of technical overlays such as Bollinger bands, moving averages, ichimokus, and so on.
Now, on the other hand, Bitcoin is moving back and forth of important indicators.
Here for example are the Bollinger bands, through which the price flicks back and forth between its middle divider.
Amidst this technical range we can expect a significant pressure build-up. As the prevailing trend is downwards, the statistical bias is for a southbound breakout. Such would turn this entire range into a big bear flag.
But, if the ABCDE triangle were to still be intact, then this whole price build-up would prove to be an accumulation. However, before we can tell with high accuracy, we need more data.
With that said, the best predictor and strong-case from here on would be for Bitcoin to take out the upper-hand resistance zone, which would also cause it to break above its sideways range as well as notable EMA and SMA cluster resistance.
/Long Life Trading
BITCOIN - Video Top-Down AnalysisHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for BTC.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC/USD Wykoff AccumilationUsing the Wykoff theory there we have completed Phase A moving into Phase B.
Key Terms in Phase A
PS – preliminary support, after prolong down-move the buying begins and you can see the stock bounces with some higher volume. It shows the stock is approaching the bottom.
SC – selling climax, panic selling by the public and it is being absorbed by larger professional operators. Normally it comes with bad news and usually appears with high volume.
AR – automatic rally, after the selling pressure has diminished and the buying pushes the price up.
ST – secondary test, the retest of previous SC. Usually the volume is low and large operators are testing the SC price.
Phase B we can expect that the lower levels of support will be tested with a dip down to the lower 30s before the spring in Phase C which is the final test by the large operators to make sure the available supply is absorbed before the markup. It is also the best time for short term traders to enter the trade (If moment is strong we will stay above the upper support). Followed by a test of support not returning down to the previous dip. At this point we will move into Phase D last point of support (LPS), the stock pullback to test the support with the volume diminished. This will lead us into The sign of strength (SOS), the stock rallies with high volume and shows the stock is preparing for the next rally. Sometimes it looks like pennant or flag which we lead us to the promise land.....
***note I assume the upper resistance will be around 49k (200EMA) with the about of sells(asks) at this price
"Mannnnnn I hope Richard Wyckoff knew what he was doing"
-KewlKat
GME Accumulation PhaseUpdate for my previous chart with a pattern fix and some more detail on how I plan to trade the accumulation phase and do some nice compound trading in a retirement account. Will likely stop posting new charts and just keep updating my trades here on this chart so be sure to follow.
BTC - Wyckoff Price Cycle!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and if you like this idea, kindly support with a like or a comment.
I found BITCOIN chart as a great practical example of Wyckoff's Theory.
Similar to the one I posted for GOLD a couple of weeks ago. (attached in the "link to related ideas section", to keep this one clean)
BTC is overall bullish trading stuck inside a flat channel in brown and it is currently sitting around the lower bound/brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
As per Wyckoff Price Cycle, we are currently in an accumulation phase.
For the Markup to start, we need the bulls to prove control by breaking the blue channel and the last high in gray upward => projection in green
Meanwhile, and until the bulls take over, BTC can still trade lower before breaking the structure, or even form a lower low marked in orange, known as the Spring => projection in red
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich