Bitcoin's Big Build-Up!Bitcoin is rangebound. This is the prime technical case we've been working on over the last weeks.
It has blown one chance after the other at breaking out, and it's now entirely confirmed that its consolidation is steadily building up.
However this range will ultimately look is of less importance. Diagonal lines of all sorts are much too discretionary to be reliable. But mind you, just because there's plenty of room for subjective interpretation, it does by no account mean all theories are correct. In the end, only ONE way is the right way.
The way I personally like to approach "diagonal lines in progress" is by applying a maximum range thereof, like below.
Ultimately, the more information we get, the more accurate and reliable the lines.
There are several things that speak loudly in technical favor of Bitcoin's rangeboundness.
First of all, upon last Sunday's closing we got ourselves a lower bullish red closing on the RSI. Immediately upon this signal, the price took off by +14% during Monday's trading. However, it's ultimate failure for the RSI to break above the upper bearish blue line was all we needed to know to confirm the drastically weakened momentum.
Secondly, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index has fluctuated a bit too wildly to convey a probable reversal. The a-bit-too-fast-and-optimistic sentiment recovery amidst the sudden pumps were much too high to mark the birth of a bullish reversal.
What we'd rather be looking for in terms of a sustainable longevity upside is for a disbelief rally. This one is simple. It's look something like this:
Moreover, whenever an underlying fluctuates between moving averages with ease, it is a sure sign of range-bound characteristics. Contrary, whenever an underlying is trending it has a spooky tendency of finding support on a wide range of technical overlays such as Bollinger bands, moving averages, ichimokus, and so on.
Now, on the other hand, Bitcoin is moving back and forth of important indicators.
Here for example are the Bollinger bands, through which the price flicks back and forth between its middle divider.
Amidst this technical range we can expect a significant pressure build-up. As the prevailing trend is downwards, the statistical bias is for a southbound breakout. Such would turn this entire range into a big bear flag.
But, if the ABCDE triangle were to still be intact, then this whole price build-up would prove to be an accumulation. However, before we can tell with high accuracy, we need more data.
With that said, the best predictor and strong-case from here on would be for Bitcoin to take out the upper-hand resistance zone, which would also cause it to break above its sideways range as well as notable EMA and SMA cluster resistance.
/Long Life Trading
Accumulation
BITCOIN - Video Top-Down AnalysisHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for BTC.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC/USD Wykoff AccumilationUsing the Wykoff theory there we have completed Phase A moving into Phase B.
Key Terms in Phase A
PS – preliminary support, after prolong down-move the buying begins and you can see the stock bounces with some higher volume. It shows the stock is approaching the bottom.
SC – selling climax, panic selling by the public and it is being absorbed by larger professional operators. Normally it comes with bad news and usually appears with high volume.
AR – automatic rally, after the selling pressure has diminished and the buying pushes the price up.
ST – secondary test, the retest of previous SC. Usually the volume is low and large operators are testing the SC price.
Phase B we can expect that the lower levels of support will be tested with a dip down to the lower 30s before the spring in Phase C which is the final test by the large operators to make sure the available supply is absorbed before the markup. It is also the best time for short term traders to enter the trade (If moment is strong we will stay above the upper support). Followed by a test of support not returning down to the previous dip. At this point we will move into Phase D last point of support (LPS), the stock pullback to test the support with the volume diminished. This will lead us into The sign of strength (SOS), the stock rallies with high volume and shows the stock is preparing for the next rally. Sometimes it looks like pennant or flag which we lead us to the promise land.....
***note I assume the upper resistance will be around 49k (200EMA) with the about of sells(asks) at this price
"Mannnnnn I hope Richard Wyckoff knew what he was doing"
-KewlKat
GME Accumulation PhaseUpdate for my previous chart with a pattern fix and some more detail on how I plan to trade the accumulation phase and do some nice compound trading in a retirement account. Will likely stop posting new charts and just keep updating my trades here on this chart so be sure to follow.
BTC - Wyckoff Price Cycle!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and if you like this idea, kindly support with a like or a comment.
I found BITCOIN chart as a great practical example of Wyckoff's Theory.
Similar to the one I posted for GOLD a couple of weeks ago. (attached in the "link to related ideas section", to keep this one clean)
BTC is overall bullish trading stuck inside a flat channel in brown and it is currently sitting around the lower bound/brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
As per Wyckoff Price Cycle, we are currently in an accumulation phase.
For the Markup to start, we need the bulls to prove control by breaking the blue channel and the last high in gray upward => projection in green
Meanwhile, and until the bulls take over, BTC can still trade lower before breaking the structure, or even form a lower low marked in orange, known as the Spring => projection in red
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
OIH Monthly Candle Breakout11 month accumulation with a large range expansion away from the mode. My strategy to trade this was jan 2023 $285 calls for the lower premium. ATM calls are also a good strategy at a significantly higher premium so it depends on your portfolio size and the position size you're aiming for. For options I choose to never exceed 5% portfolio size per trade and I set my stop at a 50% loss (for actual stocks I don't use this rule, just options). You can trade a smaller position size but I wouldn't recommend going above 5% of your total portfolio. Even with far OTM calls, I'm already at about 13% profit since there's been some nice movement since I originally charted this 3 weeks ago. At around 20% profit I will likely adjust my stop to around 10% profit and then trail.
UPDATE: EURUSD BUYUpdate of the previous idea: With a slightly wider stop, one would've avoided the spring of the accumulation that occurred in the demand zone on the . Yet, it rallied pretty nicely from there. Now, price seems to be coming back to the accumulation. I expect it to rally from the accumulation.
PLTR Accumulation PhaseWhile the stock market in general has been dropping in the last few months, there is one stock I have been paying a lot of attention to and that stock is NYSE:PLTR Palantir .
I started buying this stock since the IPO and made some additional buys till we reached $26, but looking at the chart the initial parabolic rise it had was clearly very unsustainable and decided to stop buying into the mania at the time. Afterwards I made some Technical Analysis and decided that a fair price to make some big buys once again was actually the range from $8-$11 (you can see the green rectangle on the chart I named "BUY ZONE"), the reason I figured out that my fair buy zone was that specific range, is because I saw a pattern of pure speculation and hype around the Reddit pumps, SPAC pumps and the FED printing money like never. With all of those factors put together it was clearly a time to let the markets cool down and wait once again for a fair opportunity. To be honest I left my original BUY ZONE there although I was in big disbelief that we would ever see those prices any time soon after more than a 300%+ pump, but NOW the fair opportunity has presented itself once again. The time has arrived and I'm not looking into this from a pure technical perspective I have been following their financials and they are getting way healthier each quarter, revenue is up, earnings are up, clients are up, use cases are up and they have a big pile of cash for any unexpected circumstances. Yes the stock has dropped more than 75% from its ATH and seems like it is going to die for the moment but the company itself has never been better, how one of my favorite quotes goes: “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” I will wait some time to see if we hold support on my "BUY ZONE", if held you know what I will be doing.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Here I leave you the last quarter highlights:
Q4 2021 Highlights
Total revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $433 million
Commercial revenue grew 47% year-over-year
US commercial revenue grew 132% year-over-year
Government revenue grew 26% year-over-year
Added 34 net new customers in Q4 2021
Loss from operations of $(59) million, representing a margin of (14)%, up 3500 basis points year-over-year and 900 basis points sequentially
Adjusted income from operations of $124 million, representing a margin of 29%
Cash from operations of $93 million, representing a 22% margin
Adjusted free cash flow of $104 million, representing a 24% margin
Closed 64 deals of $1 million or more, of which:
27 deals are $5 million or more
19 deals are $10 million or more
GAAP net loss per share, diluted of $(0.08)
Adjusted net earnings per share, diluted of $0.02
BTC-USDT In Accumulation zone(Wyckoff phases)Accumulation schematics by Wyckoff represents a primary model for accumulation(coin collection).it works to represent and examine the accumulation process.Besides,accumulation schematics also provide important phases to guide us through the trading position.
Phase A:
Indicates the pause of the downtrend(trading range).Till this point,supply remains dominat,which is witnessed in a decrease in coin prices for a short time accompanied by a heavy trading volume.You can see these events on price charts where heavy volumes are visible due to large tranfers of coins by the traders.here selling pressure also results in a slow downtend and an increased trading volume indicates the beginning of this phase.
Phase B:
this phase is based on Wyccoffs law cause and effect,as it is normally seen as a cause that results in an effect.The composite man gathers the highest volume of coins during phase B.During this stage,the market tests both support and resistance levels of trading range(TR).In simple terms,the price changes are wild and affected by higher volumes.Eventually,when the supply of coins is exhausted,the coin is ready to switch to phase C.
Phase C:
During face C,spring(shakeout)the price below the support level og the trading range quickly reverses and moves back into the trading range.You can consider spring as a period of the coin below the support zone to attract traders and investors.Its a final attempt to purchase the coin at the lowest rates before the rates rise again.its also notable that the bear trap attracts inexperienced investors to sell coins at low rates and wait the dump which evantually does not occur and price instead rise from that point without actually reaching that dumping point.In simple terms,spring(shakeout)is not always useful as trading volume remains unpredictable.
Phase D:
This phase is a transition between cause and effect,as its stands between phase C accumulation zone and the breakout of the trading range phase E.During phase D,an investor should keep the dominating demand over supply under consideration.During this phase ,the price rises to the top of trading range,you should strictly follow the potential dominance of demand over supply,the price normally moves to the top of the trading range and last point support provides excellant platforms for making a hefty profit.However,it is also notable that there can be more than one point where a downtrend is excpected to be paused due to an increased buying demand(last point support)phase D.
Phase E:
Is the final stage in which the coin leaves the trading range and demand comes in action.You can observe some typical reactions during these phases,such as most investors temporarily quitting their coins.
Accumulation Zones for Long Term HoldingAny crypto investor must be familiarized with historical areas to Dollar Cost Average or generally buy into the market. With a volatile asset class such as Crypto, things can move very fast.
There are a wide array of indicators in use to predict a market bottom. Today we will showcase a prediction using moving averages and RSI only.
1. Below the 2 year moving average has proven in past cycles to be a great area to accumulate BTC. Price action under the 2 year MA is quickly bought up normally within a few months max sometimes much shorter. Be prepared to DCA or place general buy orders under the 2 year MA. (Currently sitting at around 31.5k USD per BTC.
2. The 200 Week EMA has historically been a good indicator of an absolute market bottom. For those looking to snipe the bottom this can be a great area to place your buys. It is never guaranteed to get this low, if you wait too long you may get quickly priced out. It is recommended you place your buy orders in advance in the event of a flash crash as anything at these levels will be quickly bought out.
3. On the weekly, RSI (length 14) has RARELY ever tapped 30. This may also be used as information to large buy orders in the event BTC gets this low again.
There is a lot of geopolitical pressure in the world right now. As always be prepared and have your orders in the books. Have your buy orders ready for any market panic events.
Volatility may be your friend if prepared.
Don't Get Fooled By BTC!!! Hello everyone!
As you can see in this chart we have a BTC wyckoff distribution, what i will expect from this move?!
First of all, we can see that BTC filled an imbalance that i called on 10 feb. I expect a pump from this zone to make a UT, this could be from 45 to 50k, depends on the next days volume, maybe BTC will fill another daily imbalance. After this pump i think that will dump to 41.5-43k and consolidate there, if that will happen we will have a confirmed distribution.
Of course we can have another scenario, the other scenario is to reject from 41500, but as we know funding rate is going down and a lot of liquidation has accumulate over that zone. Liquidation that market makers will want to get. Why do i think that we will go up to 45-50k, so if u use twitter often is impossible that u didn't saw people saying, if we go to 50k i am bullish or if we go to 48k i am bullish, from that zone will come a lot of greed, and if we have greed in market, whales will be there to take the money, i think this will be a very good trap and we can profit from that.
Why i think BTC will go lower than 33k, is very simple, if u look on daily chart you will see a lot of imbalance down there, and a wyckoff accumulation in phase b, more exactly in ST, which is often bellow AR and the last important imbalance is at 18000, ofc we can stop at 27500 and then we can go up from there.
Another interesting thing about my chart is that the dump from UTAD or LPSY will be arround 16 march when will be the event that we all wait to hear the news about taxes, anyway, that will be a very easy way to argument that dump, but guys, we all know that will be not the only reason :))
So, guys, i hope you all the best, that was my opinion with all this move and i like to share my idea with you all.
BTC 30m Wykoff Accumulation Spring May Have OccurredOn the 10m to 1h timeframe we can clearly see what appears to been an accumulation range having just had our potential spring point. We would want to see us come down to a higher low, above the SC and ST with high volume on the move back up from a bounce there.
That would confirm our spring and likely lead to an SoS impulse that would absorb the remaining supply at the range resistance. After taking out those stops above UT, we would likely come down for a last point of support that would move us up into a markup impulse taking out all the remaining shorts from the larger bearish impulse.
NKN Rectangle, accumulation, bullish scenarioNKN is traded in a huge rectangle since May 2021.
Price respected the ST bullish trendline one more time, while at the same time is remaining above the 20MA for 10 days.
A break through the MT bearish trendline is a matter of time. After that, the next resistance is near the LT bearish trendline. If accumulation is completed, SZ breakout will be no
If you’re looking for a confirmation to go long wait for: 1) MT bearish TL breakout
2) 50MA breakout
3) MAs crossover
Place a take profit order in the supply zone and a stop loss or alert below the 20MA.
If price surpass the SZ, (the most probable scenario) next crucial resistances is $1.50 and $2.32.
BNT returned in sideways trendBNT is ranging since May 2021. Support that built at $2.66 on June was tested again one month later in the form of a fakeout. In January 2022, price passed through $2.66 and found strong resistance in the high demand zone between $2.30 – 2.08.
In the 4H LTF, BNT was accumulated between 22 Jan. and 05 Feb. That in conjunction with the long tail candlesticks - in the same period – indicates that large traders absorbed all the coins that sold below $2.30.
Yesterday BNT returned in sideways trend in relatively low volume. That’s not necessary a bad sign. Besides, changes in price are relatively small. Today, $2.60 level retested again.
If you want to go long, a position below $2.8, take profit near psychological resistance at $5.00 and stop loss below $2.30 or $2.08, gives you a R/R >3 - 3.75.
A conservative target if we gain psycho resistance is between $10.00 – 8.00.
I’ll keep my report updated to any significant changes.
AAVE shows the 1st sign of bullish reversalYesterday, there was high buying pressure (high volume) but the price raised only +0.96%, that's a good sign that large investors absorbed all crypto selling orders.
Bitcoin and Ethereum broke resistance zones in relatively high volume. Entire crypto market will follow soon.
I expect Aave will break above $170 tomorrow or in the next few days.
If you want a "safer" entry point wait the breakout above the bearish trend line.
NZD/JPY 4H Wyckoff 23:1 Risk to Reward RatioWyckoff Trading Method is amazing to understand the market and the big players who move the market. The idea is to understand when the market consolidates and wether it is in a distribution/re-distribution phase or accumulation/re-accumulation phase.
Wyckoff gives you a big Risk to Reward Ration if entered right.
In the NZD/JPY attached picture, the price consolidated and before it there was a change of character, there I have identified the PS (Point of Supply). Then the SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) were identified alongside ST (Second Test) to mark the end of Phase A. Trading Ranges are identified by SC & AR.
Phase B had an Ultimate Thrust followed by an ST for Phase B.
Phase C is where the big players trick you into thinking the price will go down while in fact the want to push it up. That is called the Spring which is then followed by a Test. The Test usually happens to gather the hedge funds companies to join along.
Phase D is where we see Signs of Strength and could be followed by a Last Point of Supply for any companies to join along.
You could enter a trade in Phase C or Phase D only and you could even go on lower timeframes for better entries.
You have to have patiences when trading Wyckoff because you could have Re-accumulation instead of Accumulation. In our online courses, we'll teach you how you can identify the difference :)
Please share and support and let me know what you think in the comments section. Thanks !
Bitcoin accumulationOn chain data indicates that whales and small fish are buying.
Risk is in macro environment:
CPI is higher than expected
Rumors of Russia will invade Ukraine
I think the invasion rumors are bullshit.
FED minutes tomorrow, I doubt they will raise rates higher than the market expects them to (.25 or .5), so it might already be priced in.
Bitcoin is forming what might be an inverted head and shoulder.
If the pattern materializes, then the target is around $57000 in 21 days (half the duration of the inverted head and shoulder) with a probability of 83%.
I want to get in before pattern completion and tomorrow's potential volatility, which is arguably risky.
I am taking the risk because onchain data is very bullish.
JICPT| Tencent in the late stage of accumulationHello everyone. It's been a while since I published ideas regarding Tencent. After analyzing the global market to identify the sweet spot to park the assets for my client, Tencent again got my attention.
From the daily chart, we can see the key anchored level around HKD412 is well respected after massive sell-off with above the normal volume. In my opinion, Tencent is in the process of accumulation, perhaps, the late stage.
The upper boundary of the sideway channel is HKD515 to HKD528. I'm looking for big size candle with high volume to take over it.
By setting the alert, let's see how it reacts to the boundary this time. The next target after confirmed breakout is HKD644.
What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
XRP - The Trend Has Started To Reverse To The UpsideXRP has held the lows and with recent BTC pump it is safe to say that we have reversed from here. We could still hang out at these prices for a bit but not very long. I still expect prices to pause at certain trading ranges (colored boxes) but generally not for long as we have accumulated long enough to eventually expect parabolic rise of some kind.
I am not a financial advisor so none of these should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
BINANCE:XRPUSDT