ALGO/USDT ACCUMULATION!Hello my beauties.
ALGO/USDT is in a phase of reaccumulation. We are now waiting for the markup, and it will probably lead the prices around the 3 area.
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Luca, TrickleDownFX
Accumulation
GOOGLE REACCUMULATION!Hello my beauties.
I think Google is completing a phase of reaccumulation, and it might jump above the trading range soon. The arrows do not indicate exact price action, and the trade setup needs to be verified through accurate observation of the developing event in the price action.
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Luca, TrickleDownFX
TWO SCENARIOS FOR HP ACCUMULATION OR DISTRIBUTION?Hello my beauties.
I think HP might be accumulating. The range is clearly defined, but we need to understand whether this was a spring or a sign of weakness. Regardless, we will wait for the price to react to the top of the range by whether breaking it and retesting it successfully, or by breaking out and quickly recovering beneath the red line.
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Luca, TrickleDownFX
Short Opportunity Before LPSHi fellas!
This is what accumulation DOES! You will not go up before everyone turns bearish! Even the best traders i know were heading for 37k and boom, stops were hit!
Lessons learned, never short the support! (once again!)
Now, this is the Show Of Strength moment (SOS) in this accumulation zone. It was quick right? Patience pays off! We had literally tested supply with 10 touches!
However, if you are late to the party, or got caught in the opposite direction, it would be best to move on to the next trade during retracement and use this as a short / take profit opportunity.
As always, i've set TOTT to take the short for me, if there's ever an opportunity :)
I'm expecting a LPS (last point of support) as a higer low around 46k and if that fails, 43.440 would be my second target.
Long term bullish uptrend is finally established, BUT 50k is very important to cross, otherwise this uptrend may come to an end!
Take profit during retracements and ride the winner.
But, hey what do i know.
Trade safe!
Swing Short SetupI’m on the go for a few days and didn’t take my laptop, but this doesn’t mean I won’t publish new ideas ;)
We have seen a great bounce with FED news (It has started way earlier than the public announcement ) and continuation with great news from Twitter integrating tips using bitcoin over lightning network through strike api.
This creates a perfect environment for market makers to create liquidity and guess where the liquidity is ;)
There’s very strong resistance zone and the point of control approaching! I think this is a very good swing short opportunity if these zones get rejected. It will give us a correction and a swing low marking last point of support (LPS)
So, look for a rejection and a swing failure pattern at 46k.
But, what do i know ;)
Trade safe!
Wait for a sell signal with NZDCHFH1 time frame.
Structure: The bullish structure is broken.
Price breaks Key level at 0.65000.
Currently, the price is forming a small accumulation area retest Key level has just been broken.
If the price breaks out of this consolidation area, confirming the downtrend, selling with targets at 0.63500 and 0.62600 is possible.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Bitcoin Price Targets From p&f AnalysisP&F is an old but great chart technique i like to use. It measures the volatility - a perfect match to Bitcoin. I'm using 3 box reversal with box size of $1.000. It's used to calculate price objectives at the end of wyckoff structures by measuring horizontal counts.
I've shared many p&f charts pointing 100k during first accumulation, but we got another reaccumulation followed by that and i believe we have come to the end of this accumulation zone. This means we now have more columns to count for a higher price objective!
The Segments:
1- Conservative
I'm taking the LPS of the primary accumulation as the conservative count, which is 9 bars.
(9x3x1000)+29=56k
(9x3x1000)+39=66k
2- Moderate
The spring of primary accumulation. 19 bars
(19x3x1000)+29=86k
(19x3x1000)+39=96k
3- Aggressive
The whole accumulation count. 31 bars
(31x3x1000)+29=122k
(31x3x1000)+39=132k
So, in all the fear of the moment, step back and consider this accumulation we had. Was that all for nothing? I don't think so!
But what do i know :)
Trade safe!
Retest Just In Time!Hi everyone,
It's really hard to be bullish in times like these, but it's also the best time! When fear captures all brains, it's time to be greedy! You can even trade the fear & greed index as a counter signal, because markets are driven with fear and greed. I know pro traders that were waiting to buy at this level.
Let's get into it,
We had the spring with low volume, signaling exhaustion of sellers and a quick retest came right after that with even lower volume. What a timing before the FED news! Retest took one month in the previous accumulation. Current accumulation is like wyckoff on steroids :)))
The only thing that isn't text book here is that the test was expected to be a higher low. I'm not sure if it's a requirement. In this case we have a lower low and that is a concern, but could also be a bear trap. I'll interpet this as bear trap for now, just like the bull trap during the upthrust.
To the upside, we need to pass the resistance zone, take over 43.639 high and print a new higher high. This could happen with the news from FED and a rally could follow.
To the downside, 39.600 must not be lost at all costs or the structure will invalidate and we may see another leg down.
I'm still fully invested, but i'm ready to take a short if things go wrong. If you want to open new positions at this support level, make sure to use a stop loss!
But, what do i know :)
Trade safe!
Bitcoin update 21/09/202121/09/2021
Currently trading on 42 700 USD.
After Sunday - Monday crash bitcoin falled from 48 800 USD to 40 000 USD.
Many traders were liquidated.
Reasons for crash
1) Volume in market is very low.
2) China FUD - Evergrande company has some problems and all stocks falled down.
3) Stocks are on the tops and market is very tricky.
4) In market are many speculants and gamblers with high leverage positions and without any experince.
Next scenario for BTC
1) sideways range between 42 - 48k till the break of orange trendline and road to new ATH. Target is around 100-120K USD. Green scenario
- Important points - Daily close not below 38k (with body), Weekly candle not below EMA21
2) Distribution between 35 - 40k and then break down.
- daily close below 38k
Presonaly I am still bullish, bcs support on 40k is very strong and it is more easier to go up from this support then go down trough this support.
Market cap USDT after every correction grows. It means money still stay in cryptomarket and are ready for buy.
How To Be Wrong And Still Make MoneyOk guys,
Let's get straight to it. The exact opposite happened after my last post and i still made 6.5% profit. Even the best investors have 67% win rate. So, how do you still make money while being wrong?
First, charting and trading are two seperate skills. You can be a very good charter and a terrible trader and vice versa, because it's the execution that makes the difference.
The secret here is to keep your losses small and let your winners ride, but you probably heard this many times.
Example:
You lost 1% on average on 9 out of 10 trades and win just one trade with 15% profit. This is 5% profit with 10% win rate. It shows you are a risk taker and not afraid to take risky trades. Your risk to reward ratio will be 1/15 which is hard to accomplish, but this is just an example right :)
You get the idea, so how do you cut losess, fast?
This is something i always do, but not always share and that's why i'm sharing this post today.
IT IS THE F****** STOP LOSS!
Let's face it, you will never have a 100% probability of winning a trade. We are not fortune tellers, nobody knows what's going to happen next. That's why you have to have a mechanism in place to protect you and that's called the humbe Stop Loss and it's not as simple as you might think.
So How Do I Set My Stop Losses?
First of all I don't set a fixed stop limit order, but a dynamic market order :) I'm using a trailing stop indicator TOTT Bands, which i told you about many times. It works both ways for longs and shorts. It's a trend tracking system that uses a variable moving average that adjusts itself based on volatility. Stop loss level adjusts itself with each candle. Here's how it looks on one minute chart:
This is algorithmic trading with pure math and probabilities. I use 1 min chart for short term profit taking opportunities like the one happened just yesterday and use 1 day chart for long term. Here's how it looks:
But don't be fooled by the simplicity of how it looks. I've spend almost a year to get to this level before i found this indicator. I had to learn how to optimize it, because the default values WILL loose you money. I purchased a software just to backtest it and just realized the software wasn't working on 1 min chart due to a bug, so i had it fixed etc. I now have a short term profit taking system along with long term strategy.
But you still have to learn technical analysis to optimize this indicator, simply because you should know where the system should sell and buy or you will end up with some lucky trades which will later turn in to bust. It's not easy.
This is how i survived yesterdays drop with 6.5% more Bitcoin by taking profits with my stop loss indicator and buying back lower. I used 30% of my account to take this trade which was set earlier for risk management purposes, because i've planned this trade and traded my plan! I was sleeping when stop was hit and on the way to my daughters school when it bought back. It works like a charm and i have not lost a single Sat since i started using it in May.
How Do I Automate This?
Using tradingview alerts and 3commas DCA bots which is connected to your exchange. Any alert you set on your charts, be it a trend line, price alert or indicator, can send a sell or buy signal to 3commas bots and it will execute on the exchange. You don't have to use this indicator, but use any stop loss that you can set.
I may not be the best analyst in town, but i know who is. I use the tools they build, learn from them and i wil continue to sharpen my skills. TOTT (Twin Optimized Tracker) Bands was built and shared at no cost by veteran trader Anıl Özekşi in Turkey as an upgraded version of his long time tested MOST indicator. It's published free by his colleague Kıvanç Özbilgiç, who is in the pine wizards list of Tradingview (www.tradingview.com). I also take courses from wyckoff analytics along with chart champions to sharpen my TA skills, so i nvest heavily in this.
Context Matters
When i share an idea, i'm interpreting the situation from my perpective. Which is the long i took at 41k. If we reject from 48k and take a nose dive, that's not a problem for me as i also have both the short term and the long term stop loss as i explained above. If you agreed with my idea and opened a new long position without using a stop loss, you need to sharpen your trading skills and learn risk management.
What now?
Let's go back to our chart, i think yesterdays price action is undeniably the spring. The shakeout on Sep 13th had the spring type nature for sure, but it did not cross below the Selling climax.
Lessons learned: Spring should cross below SC.
Also, notice how yesterday's volume is less than tiny Sep 13 shakeout. Diminishing volume shows supply is exhausted and all weak hands are shaken!
The double swing high was also confusing. It's a combination of upthrust and sign of strength, or may be just a bull trap after Upthrust. It did not even reach the resistance zone before going down which is a sign of weakness. Yes, i think it was a bull trap after the upthrust.
Right now price sits at the support zone, waiting for the FED meeting. I don't expect further downside and we should see a restest of the spring followed by a strong rally. This will validate the accumulation. If we go below the spring, then this turns out to be distribution which i don't think it is.
But remember, this is a similar situation we had back at 29k. Elon Musk & Jack Dorsey moment. But that was the restest of the spring, not the spring itself, so expect further sideways as well.
So, i'm even more bullish now (Note that this time at support zone :)))
but hey what do i know :)
PS. I know some of you will start trolling this post just like before. If you are happy when i'm wrong, that doesn't change the fact that i'm still winning while being wrong, but on the other hand you should see a phsycic :)))
Bitcoin Is Dead, GAME OVER!LOL :) This is what you will hear from bears screaming bear market and it's the perfect buy signal :)
Here's why:
1- The Up Trend is Intact
From a long term perspective our uptrend stride has finally found it's third touch and the supply trend is validated. Even a second spring happens, it will just be a shakeout.
2- The FED News
This is where the reversals and beginings of rallies happen. Remember Elon Musk & Jack Dorsey Talk? That was at $29k where everybody was screaming Bitcoin's dead. As i mentioned in my previous post, FED has an update on Tapering this week Wednesday, 21-22. It is quite the same sentiment when we were at 29k. Just look at the runway!
3- Wyckoff accumulation in play
Although not textbook, we are yet in another local wyckoff accumulation order block within an uptrend. Few more days of fear pomping would be just enough to get weak hands sidelined and rally begins. These accumulation zones only add up to the price target. This last drop is actually a higher low and marks as the LPS (Last Point Of Support)
My short term bots were triggered yesterday and shorted 30% during the drop while i was sleeping. I'm considering closing these shorts manually before they are triggered and enjoy profits. Undecided for now.
So, wait until you hear everyone turns bearish within few days if not hours and the opportunity will present itself.
As always, i'm probably wrong.
Trade safe.
Going upHi all,
The wycoff structure here was not textbook. I was expecting the upthrust before the spring, but it didn't come. I realized that the reason for that was the 200MA on the daily which is one of the strongest MA's that you may call "live or die" line. Hence i will call September 11 and 12 highs as the upthrust, even though it's not text book.
This brings us to the spring at 43k, although It's also not below the selling climax it has a spring type nature. Strong bounce to 48k confirms this spring and it also marks the sign of strength here.
Now, price is making higher lows and higher highs, just below the huge resistance at 49-50k. There are Sign of Strength (SOS) and Last Point Of Support (LPS). If we manage to break this resistance, we will start a new rally. I think we have enough fuel in the tank to cross this resistance.
That said, i closed my take profits and back to fully invested mode. It was a small portion anyway for risk management purposes.
The news i'm watching now is the FED meeting on Sep 21-22. I was expecting this date to be the dip at 42, but i don't expect a nose dive from this point, yet the date is still important, because FED can anounce tapering and that is not good news for risk assets like Bitcoin, so i'm also prepared to take a short if this happens.
As always, i'm probably wrong. Trade safe :)
Possible beginning of accumulation on AUD/USDHello my beauties.
I noticed that the pair has come to a nice selling climax, and given the strength of the AR (automatic reaction) in proximity of the long term bearish trendline that was broken to the upside, I see this as a possible accumulation. Personally, I will wait for a nice spring below the TR (trading range, in red) to enter a long trade and gain some nice profit. We are going to wait for further development of price action to take the trade, and wait for a nice buying opportunity below the bottom red line.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Wyckoff accumulation on GBP/CHF!Hello my beauties.
It seems to me that GBP/CHF is in a phase of accumulation.
The arrows indicate a rough idea of what I think the price action will provide us with, and they are not to be taken as an accurate forecast of what I think will happen.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
$UUUU & *Completed* Wyckoff AccumulationThose of you who know me know I **LOVE** finding completed Wyckoff Accumulations. Today is a good day, because we found another one.
Introducing $UUUU. This stock has recently completed ~6 years of accumulation and appears to be in the early stages of markup. If you go through my related ideas of some other assets that have had similar setups, observe how those patterns ended up playing out. And bonus points here with how LONG (how much TIME) has gone into this pattern. This isn't like the 1 or 2 month patterns that crypto TA loves to go all-in with... this is ~6 years worth of effort to bring us to the start of what appears to be a major run.
Note: Don't get too caught up in FOMO - with a 6 year floor, I'd estimate it will be a year or two for the stock to hit it's ultimate top. Of course, the market is going to do whatever it wants and not ask our permission. If it pulls a GME and insta-moons with all of WSB, then the top will be found much, much sooner than a couple years (imo/nfa).
Link to schematic for review
school.stockcharts.com
<TradeVSA> Change of Trend in TuneproSignal in the chart:
Weekly Chart
1. Change of trend with High Volume
2. Price holding well above 20/40ma with 2 Green Pentagon
Wait for Green Pentagon in Daily chart for momentum trade
Disclaimer
This information only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock
Btc; investment idea and heavy supportsHello everyone
As some of you know I use the % wallet strategy and I also like to explain my "layered investments" or Dollar cost average (dca) as some like to call it.
Anyway, we are currently holding about 34% crypto. Most of this was bought at 30k, 40k or even lower (1 year ago) but our most recent buys were at 45k zone. This were also alts (some of which are still in good profits: dot, lyxe, waves fully sold)
The next zones where I am aiming for are described in the chart.
I will be aiming for the 40-42k zone (where everyone aims for)
But a heavy buy is also under this at the (red square) 38k zone! Reason is 0.618 fib
Ending with the 0.5 fib zone: 35-36k. Also a bigger buy.
For now I want to reserve 49% stablecoins for a possible bearish leg, a lot has happened this year.. a lot of whaleplay too. The moneyprinter in the USA keeps printing and the SPX looks dangerously high. For this reason I am not going full bull atm. 51% is already a heavy investment for me.
If we go up from one of the zones and if things look more relaxed I will happily invest another 10% of the stablecoins.
Also I do not expect to hit zone 35k or even 38k, but who knows :-) we could be lucky!
can always invest extra later if we go up from here (45k). We got time enough since we sold 51500 past week and 64k a couple of months ago.
Overall.. I am feeling super bullish on crypto, but we simply can not turn a 100% blind eye to the stock markets as they are right now. As we like to say in the south of Holland "Everything beautiful knows an end". (Aan al het moois komt een einde). I believe. Haven't heard this saying for ages hahah.
Anyway, don't skip on investing right now but do reserve some funds for the 42k or even 38k zone. Invest heavily and we will probably swim in crypto money in a few weeks.
If not: we are all rekt because of stocks; we simply hodl and wait for another 4 years while buying the 25k minus dip with the rest of our 49% stablecoins (or less if we decided to fomo in some more in the coming weeks :-) )