Accumulation
Bitcoin 67k or 8k First?Here's the P&F chart update for Bitcoin after the Amazon FUD.
We have a reversal bar to the downside which is bearish, but in order not to become overly bearish, i'm also counting for a possible reversal to the upside for the next column. Ofcourse we should expect a reaction in these reversal bars. In fact the current reversal could be the reaction itself.
30k is the double bottom and 40k is the double top. Crossing these levels could take us further as explained on the chart. I tokk only the last segment of consolidation as they are the first targets.
We are still in the sideways trading range and we could break out both ways. There are signs of strength and accumulation, but volume is not supporting this.
I'm in short strategy, but i'm posting this as neutral so people don't take action within this trading range by looking at my analysis idea.
Be safe.
USDCAD BULLISH(Follow up chart.Refer to previous post) This is a follow up chart for my previous post .
Find the link attached below
Too Good To Be TrueI wasn't expecting this move, but that's what Bitcoin does :) Last time we were at $40k, i sold all my Bitcoin and exited my positions. Even this mega short squeeze didn't reach my exit levels, so i'm still in profit and have more purchasing power.
This could change ofcourse and when it does i won't hesitate to go back in.
Let's review what we have now;
The Bullish Hat:
- OMG Amazon is hiring a crypocurrency product lead
- Price is up 35% in 6 consecutive days
- Price crossed above 50 day MA
- Price broke resitance levels 32,36 & 37k
- Price crossed above the gray zone of the overbought area
The Bearish Hat:
- Still in the trading range (30-41.3k)
- Below 200 MA (Definition of bear market)
- Very low monthly volume
- Volume / Price divergence (Volume not following pump)
- 89k Bitcoin still net sold on Binance (Volume Profile)
- Weekend pump (institutions & wire transfer not working)
- Engineered - pumps came on the last 2-3 hours just like previous traps.
With all these givens, i have to admit this move wasn't expected. It looks strong, but when you look deeper, you see that this is like a one man show and that is the composite man. Almost all sellers in July got squeezed (Not me LOL) So the whole month looks like a mega short squeeze.
So let's zoom out and look at the longer term trends. On the monthly scale, things still don't look good. Heikin Ashi charts are always good at filtering noise on the long term charts. Also look at the volume as we are about to close this month.
We still have yet to see a green bar on amonthly scale.
Again on the monthly scale, the main trend i've pointed out in my earlier analysis, still showing room for a downward move towards the oversold bottom of channel.
And let's talk some indicators as well. Although it's probably not one of yours, but i've spent around 6 months to optimize it, hence the name "Twin Optimized Trend Tracker"
This indicator is my headlight and confirmation before i enter any trade and it only had 6 trades since OCT 2018 with a return of 2.371% vs "buy and hold" return of 505% If it turns long, i turn bullish. Simple as that. While i can't predict it's calculation, i think price needs to stay above 37k and move sideways for a week or two and then pump over 42ish for it to print a buy signal. It's pretty much immune to fakeouts but note that 200MA is waiting at 44k! So even if it prints a buy signal at 42ish, a possible pull back from 44k would send us a bit lower which we can't foresee now.
Is Re-distribution Invalidated and Are We In Accumulation?
I think many of us are frustrated right now, following wyckoff schematics. Although it looks more like accumulation now (with break of the downtrend), I still believe we are in a redistribution simply because volume does not validate this price action and it is one of the main pillars of wyckoff method.
Even if this is accumulation, we will still see a higher low possibly at (32.328) and a possible spring. So there's no need to FOMO right now. FOMO buying never ends well. Time to buy was at 29k, but you listened to me and missed it, live with it :)))
Disclaimer: I'm short since 40k and i'm posting based on my position, not yours. So just don't FOMO right now. It's really too late for this leg.
For a bullish target, assuming this as accumulation (bullish hat) we have 18 columns on P&f chart. This is enough fuel to take us above 90k - if it happens to be accumulation.
To sum up, i think this Amazon job listing is as bullshit just like Apple & Facebook buying Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Big boys are powerful, and they can spread these news easily. I'm not going to invest my life savings based on a news that is verified by an unknown "insider". There was litterally little or no demand in July and they decided to pump so hard that everyone will turn bullish which looks like it worked.
Best
EURCAD BUYSWycoff accumulation around a point of interest
Price is getting ready to reverse at a 4hour institutional candle.
I hear the money is made in the waiting so this is a longterm buy
NZD CAD Major potential accumulationHey Guys,
NZD CAD just came out of an accumulation on the daily timeframe, confirmed by the most recent break of structure, so our overall bias is long. But scoping in on the 1 hr timeframe we can see re-distribution, so we will not enter long yet, instead we will wait for price to go lower, and we MUST see accumulation on lower timeframes to go long, if we don't see an accumulation then very simply we will not be entering any longs. we will wait for the lower timeframes to be aligned with the higher timeframe to enter long. will update through the week.
BTC/USDT Wyckoff accumulation. Heading to Phase D?Last time we covered Bitcoin we introduced the Wyckoff accumulation pattern.
The continuation did not follow the exact pattern.
We rather saw another so called "Test" below the 30k line and are moving upwards since.
Currently we look for a breakout above the 0.5 Fib line and a follow up retest of it as new support.
This would give us a good setup to move towards phase D, the consolidation before the final upwards breakout.
Bulls are coming back but don't be mistaken it's still a long way to go.
What drives the market upwards again?
The talk about the B word can be considered bullish news where also potentially Tesla will accept Bitcoin payments again in the near future.
The bears were not able to hold BTC constantly below 30k and now it looks like the semtiment swapped.
Fundamentally we move towards great updates for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Cardano which cannot be ignored anymore.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ATH
- Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit)
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
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We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments.
Discussions are very welcome here.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
- White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA.
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Boxes:
- Either entry zone or support zone. Check the description.
Correlation of price movementTHESE ARE TWO THEORIES. THE FIRST IS ACCORIDNG TO WYCKOFF, THE SECONS IS THE DOW THEORY
1) Accumulation begins with the price stopping and the formation of support, followed by the end of sales, the opposite level is gradually formed - resistance
and the price goes into a sideways movement. It has a name - Accumulative flat or consolidation. Dow says that it is impossible to trade in flat, this is not a place to trade
2) Consolidation ends when there is an update of the tops and someone from the sides - buyers or sellers, starts winning in the market, but it is quite difficult
to break through from the first time and often a large player deceives the players in this way by making a false breakout.
3) Wyckoff's theory mentions retests of the support level, a sequential movement that follows a stop. Assessment of the state of the lower limit of accumulation,
after which the market reverses and moves in the opposite direction to the previous movement. The accumulation is exited and the trend is reversed.
TREND
In essence, a trend is the direction of the predominant movement of indicators. Usually considered in the framework of technical analysis, where the direction
of price movement is implied. Charles Dow noted that in an uptrend, the subsequent peak on the chart should be higher than the previous ones, in a downtrend,
subsequent downturns on the chart should be lower than the previous ones. There are upward, downward and sideways trends. A trend line is often drawn on the chart,
which connects two or more price troughs in an uptrend, and connects two or more price peaks in a downtrend.
Bitcoin Accumulation Zone: Buyers vs Sellers
Hash Ribbons tells us to remain patient for the buy signal as capitulation continues
MA Ribbon suggests further downside, but price is at Weekly MA support
Bullish broadening wedge in the making, not yet confirmed
Buyers vs sellers accumulation zone in yellow
Based on the January 2020 VPVR model:
XAU Shift before bullish takeoffXAU has managed to break the two-week range between 1797.00 Upper bands and 1750.00 lower bands.
This consolidation comes as normality after extending a steep decline right off the 1900.00 zones as accumulation now shapes into form.
A projected re-test of the established mid-range sees a short entry opportunity toward 1775.00.
This establishes a confluence setup as price may bounce off the 1775.00 weekly reactive zones further continuing the bullish push toward 2104.00 later this year.
BTC about to rise againAfter Shaking out weak hands, the strong hands are interested in higher prices for Bitcoin, it has been tested here for multiple times and there are a few bullish signs
1. For most of the range, The price stayed above the fib 0.5(dashed line)
2. The price rises faster than I drops
3. The tests have passed successfully showing the market prefers higher prices now
P.S
If the range will fail to bring higher prices, BTC is going to drop hard (macro H&S on monthly)
BTC ACCUMULATION TRADEHey traders,
I just wanted to show you guys a trade I took, to express how I use wyckoff to get trade entries and predict price movement. Obviously I used a lot of other tools (which I won't disclose in my ideas) to get a read on the market in order to trade seemingly50/50 conditions. What is important about any method of analysis is to see it in real time.
I fyou found this insightful leave a like and follow, also check out my YT and Twitter links below , thanks.
Bitcoin Accumulation or More Pain to Come?As I've been saying. The best case scenario for Bitcoin during these upcoming months is to hold and stay above the crucial $30,000 level of support. Our worse case scenario is having daily and weekly candle closes below $30,000. Looking at the monthly chart we're approaching bearish divergence on the MACD and most likely will diverge. The question is can $30,000 continue to hold as the market continues to slowly sell off. How much more fearful can we get?
We are now back at the bottom of this channel once again. As long as we're at these levels expect Bitcoin to come back down and re-test the lows $28,750. This is nothing we haven't already seen. I can smell the fear, uncertainty, and doubt through my screen every time we range back down in the lower $30ks.
A couple things to keep in mind:
* On the Fear & Greed Index Bitcoin has been extremely fearful since May 14 and we continue to remain extremely fearful.
* This is the longest time in Bitcoins history we've been in a prolonged state of extreme fear.
* A Death Cross (200 day MA going below the 50 day MA) has already formed on June 19th.
* Bearish Divergence is approaching on the monthly MACD.
* Google Searches for Bitcoin are at a 7 month low.
* Unlike the 2017 market top & crash its confirmed that Bitcoin has been in a Wyckoff Distribution schematic. Which indicates there's big money, wall street, and major financial institutions are more directly involved in this market than ever before.
*It has so far been evident that Bitcoin between $28,000 - $31,000 have been very hot accumulations zones for whales. Of course that can always change.
*If we can't hold $30,000 then $20,000 may be our next stop.
This current market sentiment and fear will not be here forever. When we're very greedy then becoming extremely fearful becomes greater over time. After we've exhausted being extremely fearful then our human greed over time slowly starts to build up again. It is a constant back and forth.
We will come out of this period more resilient than ever. I do believe we will probably remain sluggish for the next couple of months if there's no decisive break to the downside just looking at the monthly charts. How low do we go? Nobody knows we need to take this day by day and week by week.
Don't forget the underlying power that you have by owning Bitcoin. You are you're own bank. You have digital property and freedom outside of our corroding financial system. Bitcoin is a powerful technology that monetizes peace, fairness, and mathematical integrity in economics. This is why its a big deal and will not go away.
Much peace, love, health, and wealth.
BITCOIN - Under Construction, If All Goes WellHello everyone, rouzwelt here
Here on the chart you can see the orange triangle formed which price has been respecting its boundaries relatively good except that little fake out. As price is reaching to the end of the triangle, the chance of seeing a breakout soon is increasing, as most of triangle patterns generally break at 60 -75% of their length and don't go all the way to the end. As of now price is at those general breakout area and is also sitting on the bottom line of the triangle, so technically, it has a great chance of breaking-down and completing the potential bear-flag formation. This is the most probable outcome right now if you look at the chart in classic TA perspective.
But that's not all, in fact that little fake out can indicate that the potential bear-flag may not be a triangle but a rectangle, as I have drawn it in the chart with dotted orange line, so if that is case then there's no ending point like a triangle flag, the ending point comes whenever the breakout happens, so if we extend the rectangle to the right side it will reach the main blue down-trend line. As you can see the price has already bounced twice from that blue trend line and as it moves inside the rectangle we can expect that it will bounce to the down side again when it reaches the trend line, as I believe the blue down-trend is a strong dynamic resistance and I will become bullish again if only bitcoin manages to break above it, but that doesn't seem to be a likely scenario at this moment with current information and sentiment in the market, but it still has almost 30 - 40 days to reach that point if we assume this scenario, in fact a lot of things can happen till then so we better analyze the strengths of the market at that point to see whether bitcoin can break above the trend line or not.
In my opinion, the most possible bullish price action at this moment and with current data, in pure TA perspective, is that price stays in the orange rectangle (30- 40k range) longer and builds a solid base in this range (the longer the better). It would give the chance for market participants to start accumulate and the sentiment to slowly change and bring back the lost interests. But any higher volatility is actually more bearish, even if it's to the up side, as it would just be a temporary reaction without much power.
Now let's take a look at the hourly timeframe. As you can see in the screenshot of my last post below (Link:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/OOrxsYBA-BITCOIN-Move-Your-Lazy-Ass/), I have projected the probable price action in my last post and so far it is playing out with good accuracy. I believe if a break-down is going to happen then right now is the best time for it, as in TA perspective, we have all the requirements, we see lack of volume at impulse moves up which indicates the lack of demand, higher volume at impulse moves down, which indicates more supply coming in, price is near the critical support level and have not bounced sharply like it did few times before, price has not been able to print any local higher high for past few days and is now at 60-75% of the triangle formation and we don't see bullish news having any meaningful impact, so it a good opportunity for bears to make their move. But let me say here that anyone can extract their own favorite signals from the chart and market, anyone can find reason to believe its bearish or bullish, but one must look at both possible directions and manage his/her risk based on the worst possible outcome for him/her, after all risk management is the most important and practical tool a trader has.
At last for those who are following my last trade, I should note that my short trade is still open at 32850, and I'm planing to move my SL to entry and take 30% profit whenever price reaches the 5% of my entry point.
If you've found something useful in this post then consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if have any opinion about my analysis and as always have fun and trade safe.
BTC/USDT Wyckoff Accumulation - 80% Accurate?BINANCE:BTCUSDT
My Cleanest that I can come up with.
What I did consider why somehow it is inaccurate.
1. Anticipation - Price where moved a bit and some are delayed in dip/pump. 1 reason: because of the market manipulation which will make this market a bit inaccurate down to 80% probability.
2. Fundamentals - Crypto fundamental analysis involves taking a deep dive into the available information about a financial asset. For instance, you might look at its use cases, the number of people using it, or the team behind the project. Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
3. Significant Dates - For example. the 12th of July 12AM and July 17 2021. These are significant dates because of the events that may come.
Example for that is GBTC wallet release for July 17th of 2021.
4. Technicalities - I am just allowing myself to have fun with the market it allows us to make educated guesses about whether a digital asset's price will increase or decrease in the future.
5. Market Psychology - my observance and collection of wallets to produce prevailing behaviors and aggregate sentiment of market actors at any point in time. The term is often used by the financial media and analysts to explain market movement that may not be explained by other metrics, such as fundamentals.
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REF: www.investopedia.com
Phase A
The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume . The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move.
The Selling Climax ( SC ) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility , where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excess supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range ( TR ) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high.
As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC , that may not always be the case.
Phase B
Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect.
Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range.
There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of Phase A.
Phase C
A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring . It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did.
The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings.
In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring . Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid.
Phase D
Phase D represents the transition between Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E).
Typically, Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility . It usually has a Last Point Support ( LPS ), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports.
Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E.
Phase E
Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts.
WHERE IS BITCOIN? ACCUMULATION OR REDISTRIBUTION?Accumulation and Redistribution always looks same until one side is broken. Schematics may mislead us.
Just looking at the textbook wyckoff schematic and trying to fit it in the current price action makes no sense at all. Both accumulation and distribution can come in infinite ways.
So we should look at the rallies and declines, in our case I choose Redistribution Scenario #1 as the most probable.
Still it is mostly hard to distinguish between them.
Rallies are very weak, dumps are relatively stronger.
Supply trendline cannot be broken for weeks which is also a sign for re-distribution.
Generally, accumulation do not come just after a mark-down. It needs more pain.
GBTC premiums are negative which is a super bearish indicator also.
DXY is making a bull run which opposite correlates with BTC price often.
I opened at a short at 35.700 with low leverage since it is not very easy to predict if it is acc. or re-dist. if price goes up I will add more to my shorts.
We may see any of these scenarios, but according to wyckoff laws and past experiences, I feel like we are in re-distribution. Scenario #1 or #2 ? I am not sure. Tİme will tell.
This is not an advice.
Is BTC ready to pop?Hello tranders,
This is kind off playing with chart analysis, but taking Wyckoff theory as a baseline, I still believe we are somewhere in Accumulation phase (Spring / test) and I feel we should be witnessing some fundamental hot news to break current sideway movement and start ascending to the moon .
Disclaymer: This is just high level analysis and not financial advice.
cheers
BullRobin
Cardano it's look extremely bullish toward $10 USDCardano it's in the accumulation zone in the range above of $1 dollar. But there's a lot big news for this cryptocurrency in the next weeks that could to impulse the price to the next bull rally toward $10 USD.
Accumulation technique DOGE/USDHi everyone. This will be my first idea and I’m excited to be learning about chart analysis using short and long term trend lines, multiple different EMA indicators, MACD and volume.
I’m going to focus on Dogecoin chart because that is what I’ve been using to accumulate more tokens by selling during a down trend at a higher price, then buying back after the dip.
Even if you may have lost some funds during the recent crypto dip. You can use this method of risk management to minimize the losses in the long run.
During this post I will just share with you my thinking and mindset with some pictures of a group chat where I’m involved. I will get more into chart analysis soon but I’d like to hear some feedback from you guys about my system.
Cheers
Gold Accumulation - LongHi Traders,
We have broken structure of accumulation and have formed a SOS (sign of strength) as well as strong LPS (last point of supply) at 1800-1795.
Based off the cause and effect of the accumulation, the calculation using the PnF chart as seen below gives us a target area of 1920 - 1955.
We have had high volume sells and low volume buys however have continued an upward trend and made new highs and higher lows with a strong demand curve/line formed from the low of the spring. This fact along with Gold moving in the same direction as the DXY shows its strength over USD and possibilities for a rally upwards.
Fundamentals also agree with the buying of gold due to Basel III policy - www.marketwatch.com Covid 19 Delta tensions - www.cbsnews.com and news just released with Biden and Putin tensions over ransomware Russian hackers.
This is not taking into consideration the potential tapering talks and increased inflation possible in the near future.
Commitment of Traders shows the following of Non-Commercial Traders:
Dated: 07/06/2021
Long: 270,545 Short: 87,724
Change: 16,339 Change: (4,256)
This means institutions have opened more long positions and have closed short positions with a much higher percentage of longs than shorts.
Bank participation still shows 34.5% as short and 11.3% as long, however, this changed in the recent in favour of longs with long being increase by 1.1% and shorts by 0.5% - www.cftc.gov
A potential entry could be:
Entry: Between 1800 - 1815
Stop Loss: Below 1790
Take Profit 1: 1860
Take Profit 2: 1920
Take Profit 3: 1955
This would be roughly a 1:7 R:R.
This is not financial advice
Trade with caution
BTC WYCKOFF TRADEHey traders,
I've spotted Wyckoff accumulation happening on the 5min timeframe and just got decent entry conformation to take a 1:4 R:R trade. We will be targeting the 50% fib of imbalance with a stop at the lps. (you can enter on a this slight pullback). If this plays out as expected then BTC may potential move higher in the short term.
like and follow if you found my analysis helpful and want more detailed price action breakdowns
