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Accumulation

Are We Going To $80k?Here's the deal, As being one of the first trades to point out Accumulation, i've been at both sides of the story. Price being right at the middle of the trading range, it's time to evaluate current situation from both angles. 1- We are in Accumulation. The spring action is being tested and breaking 37k would validate it along with higher highs and lower lows. In Wyckoff analysis, horizontal column counts are used to calculate potential. Right now we have 17 columns (17x3x1000=51.000) and this fuel is enough to take us to 80-84k area. Wait, but aren't we going to 100k? Well that's the psychological target, but the current state of our data says we have enough fuel for 80-84k. The good news is that the more we go sideways the higher we go. 2- We are in Redistribution The poor rally and break of the uptrend are weaknesses that can validate a redistribution. However, the 17 column count far exceeds the current price level, which i mentioned in my previous analysis. We simply can't fall below zero :) So, in an effort to make this work, i've segmented the structure in to two at the second highest volume drop. That is the last 5 columns and that equals to a 15k drop, taking us to $20k as widely rumored. Calculate Your Risk If we want to open a long position today with a traget of $80k and a stop loss level at $18k, our risk to reward ratio will be 2.76 - at the worst case (if we are not going to $10k). This means If you invest $100 today, you'll have $376 when the price target is reached. Not bad. However, if the shakeout happens, the worst case we can see is 18k, meaning a ~50% drop. Will you be able to handle that stress without selling? TBH I don't know the answer, but the reward is still 2.76x if you stand strong. With proper risk management and position sizing i believe this risk can be mitigated. Final thoughts I see 2 possible scenarios now: 1- A rally towards 80k followed by a small re-accumulation, taking us above $100k 2- A break down to 20k followed by 7-8 weeks accumulation, following a rally towards 80k, followed by small re-accumulation towards $100k. I'm really neutral here, but looks like $80k will be an important level. What's your take? Go long now, or wait for 20k?
by BitcoinMillio18
70
Bitcoin: Wyckoff Update (See description for Redistribution ideaUpdate on my last Wyckoff Post I have linked below, we are still floating above the Weekly Support (Green) area but underneath Tesla average buy price. Failure to stay above 35800 is a Sign of weakness for me in the short term. Also there's a clear Bear Flag structure there. This is my rough plan for now I am hedge short but looking for another sound long term entry to ride the PRIMARY TREND which is bullish. If the Wyckoff "SPRING" is failing or a deeper spring then the next logical area for me is $MSTR MicroStrategy's average buy in price of $26080 per coin as a potential support area. Technically we could have a "Spring" type action even down at those areas and as long as we come back inside the trading range would be a valid Wyckoff Accumulation. My Wyckoff Accumulation Idea is linked below. Here is a potential Redistribution idea, note the clear formation of the Diagonal trading range. For the bulls to have a chance short term they need to reject this bear setup.. simple.
by Worth_The_Ri5k
3
Let's Assume We Are In An Uptrend & The Dip is InNow that everyone turned bullish, i wanted to analyse the possibility of an uptrend. Let's start; We have seen a higher high (HH) on June 29th at $36.600 following a higher low (HL) which are bullish signs, but notice how the HH felt $650 short from the top of this so called uptrend! It should have made a high at least at $37.253 which was the close of May. It didn't and that's weakness. Maybe what we were looking at was an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)? Now, price has just touched $35.750, the old weekly high and pulled back, we should see a jump towards $40k if this uptrend is real. That's a $5k candle. Bitcoin is know for it's unpredictability, it certainly can do this jump but i would like to see that candle first before i enter a trade. Because if this is just a nother trap, then we are looking at a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in wyckoff distribution theory which ends up in a markdown like the one we had back in May 8-10. Look how we made HH's and LH's until the huge drop and notice the weakness. Speaking of wyckoff, i'm seeing lot's of uneducated comments and analysis on this, even from the famous social media gurus. When you ask them, they would reply; "I'm not a wyckoff guy" LOL :) One should - at least- know that there are 4 schematics in Wyckoff Theory not 1: 1- Wyckoff Accumulation 2- Wyckoff Re-Accumulation 3- Wyckoff Distribution 4- Wyckoff Re-Distribution Everybody is referring to Wyckoff Accumulation and how it's on track, however re-distribution schematics is almost identical until phase C. That's why validation of the schematics is very important. These weaknesses we have seen until now does not validate Accumulation and it's a signal for re-distribution unless we see that candle at 40k's. So, is it worth to take the risk now? No.
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
50
BTC Current Wyckoff SchematicAnalyses of Trading Ranges (Stockcharts.com) "One objective of the Wyckoff method is to improve market timing when establishing a position in anticipation of a coming move where a favorable reward/risk ratio exists. Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR. In both accumulation and distribution TRs, the Composite Man is actively buying and selling - the difference being that, in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR." Source and more great basic intro information for Wyckoff Method: school.stockcharts.com While BTC Holds Above the Previous Tesla buy in area 34200 expeciting a push to 40k or further as a confirmation of Accumulation. The next confirmation of Wyckoff is a SOS ( Sign of Strength / Jump Across the creek) followed by LPS (Last Point of Support) to confirm the beginning of a move to Mark Up Phase. See schematic here for reference: ibb.co
Long
by Worth_The_Ri5k
6
Gold Accumulation - Long Potential Hi Traders, See above schematic of thought market movement - this could be exact, it could happen at different times or it could be completely wrong. Please trade with caution. We are expecting a retrace after breaking the downward trendline to 1768, which is the golden 618 Fibonacci Retracement from 1750 - 1795. If we hit the 1740 spring and touch the May '19 trendline we should be cautious if 50 gets tested and possibly heads down making this re-distribution to hit lower lows - 1700/16xx. If we break 50 and do not break back inside the structure this would be a confirmation. 1750-55 would need to break up. Gold outlook is bullish as DXY is expected to drop as well as volatility is high with fundamental influences such as Basel III, Inflation Fears and Tapering talks sooner than expected. This is not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Username_for_trading
4
Where is BTC going? Personally I think BTC has had a healthy retracement. Using the FIB tool on the daily, we have retraced to the 0.618 (golden pocket), I can see it going up after accumulation. However... Previous FIB tools applied to the previous bull runs shows BTC retracing much further than the 0.618. If we close below the red box on my chart then I'm getting worries, as it will be breaking the 0.618 on the FIB, believe we will be following a previous bear market at that point. What also concerns me is the large head and shoulders formed on the daily. What is interesting is that BTC.D is going back up, so less going into the Alts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by mpayne86
BTCUSD Wyckoff accumulation Phase C to D (on the 1hr)Wyckoff accumulation after big mid-May dump. Important inflection point for S2F model IMHO. Would like to see $33k hold and then start to push upwards over next couple of days. $41k breakout to the upside mid July would validate short term Wyckoff thesis, help uphold integrity of S2F model, and restore medium-long term bull run towards end of the year. Pink highlighter is approximate trajectory for successful model. Not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SBL2022
BTCUSD Wyckoff accumulation Phase C to D (on the 1hr)Wyckoff accumulation after big mid-May dump. Important inflection point for S2F model IMHO. Would like to see $33k hold and then start to push upwards over next couple of days. $41k breakout to the upside mid July would validate short term Wyckoff thesis, uphold integrity of S2F model, and restore medium-long term bull run towards end of the year. Pink highlighter is approximate trajectory for successful model. Not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SBL2022
BTCUSD Wyckoff consolidation Phase C to D (on the 1hr)Wyckoff accumulation after big mid-May dump. Important inflection point for S2F model IMHO. Would like to see $33k hold and then start to push upwards over next couple of days. $41k breakout to the upside mid July would validate short term Wyckoff thesis, uphold integrity of S2F model, and restore medium-long term bull run towards end of the year. Pink highlighter is approximate trajectory for successful model. Not financial advice!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SBL2022
Wyckoff accumulation part3olmost a month ago i made a idea of the wyckoff theory as i saw the first signs forming, based on my experience i made a chart of it, i have been way off if it comes to time wise but the targets were perfect, so this time i made a new idea, this idea still is about the wyckoff and also the potential chanse of failing the wyckoff theory so what you see here in the charts is a full lay out of the wyckoff theory, as mentioned before i made 2 previous ideas about it, but today i will also discuss the danger that lures around of being to optimistic on how things play out, as a trade you will always have to look boths sides and not just 1 side as you can see within the wyckoff template we see a bearish pennant that could be the key factor here to invalidate the wyckoff theory, the general rule however is that the bigger a pattern is the more likely it will play out so the offs are still in favor for the wyckoff theory , al so you would think? the reason i am saying this is becuase if you look on the daily chart you basicly see a bearish flag and within the flag basicly our wyckoff, this could in some way support this bearish pennant we have within the wyckoff pattern and its something to really watch for! as the days go by i will continue with updates to keep you up to date! if you like this idea of mine dont hesitate to throw a like and follow ;)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by NGenetics
17
BTCUSD Bitcoin - Accumulation Phase, Institutional DemandPrediction: Bullish Scenario Bitcoin is going to up higher from here to 70-85k till end of this year. The chance for this scenario is very high due to we are currently at an Institutional Demand Zone + the market is currently in a clean textbook Accumulation Phase. We have seen how the market has cleared both sides in order for the Institutions to accumulate even more positions for the potential UP MOVE. Bearish Scenario: What about the bearish scenario? Of course this is also possible but there is no reason to look at this scenario right now. Why? Because we are still in Up Trend based on the Higher Timeframes. Only after we are breaking the 28k Level we should look for a bearish scenario. Will this mean the end for Bitcoin? NOOO! It will be just a deeper Correction till max 4k$. But the price could reverse at some other significant levels before 4k$. What do you think?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DariusFxTrading
8
BITCOIN - Light Up Those Green Candles BabyHello everyone, rouzwelt here If you have watched my last video analysis on BTC chart (link of the video at bottom of this page), you know that I've been pointing out the price reaction to the main down trend line (yellow down-sloping line), I have said that price have clearly rejected many times from this line and every time that was a quick rejection, I mean that as soon as price reached that down trend line it quickly rejected, and that actually shows us that we needed more time at lower levels to be able to see higher prices for BTC. Another thing that I have pointed out in my last video was that in order for BTC (at least in my opinion) to be able to head higher, break the down trend line without faking out and also giving us good opportunity to enter a long position, the price needs to be able to find some sort of short-term support around the down trend line and spend some time around that line and I believe that is already starting to happen in the chart and we can soon see some bullish actions. Anyway If this happens that would be good indication that BTC can head to higher levels and even maybe be a good sign for us to start interpreting the price action in 30/40k range as an accumulation zone. I have projected a possible price action for this scenario in the chart (green arrow), for me personally at this stage where we got so many fake outs and rejections, if I want to open long position I need to see some clear signal and a good entry point, this scenario if it happens would be that signal which I want to see. I should note that we are seeing some volume coming in at rallies high which is a good sign that more buyers are coming in and the demand is increasing but we need to see that in higher timeframes like 4H or Daily. But mainly the macro trend is downward and it's against us if we want to go long, so if we want to go long at this stage we need a tight stop-loss, just remember that. But let me quickly point out that BTC can get rejected at this level like many times before and that wouldn't be a surprise at all, so we need to be prepared as I have been talking about wyckoff redistribution playing out in the chart which can dump BTC to lower levels and if BTC start rejecting at this point that actually can form LPSY of wyckoff method which in that case I'd be looking for short setups, I have projected the likely price action of this scenario in the chart as well (red arrow). Anyway, either way, bullish or bearish, I'm going to be prepared, I have planned my strategy, entry point and SL for both directions and all I do now is I'll be waiting for one those scenarios to happen and I suggest that you start to build your own, too. That's all for now, have fun and trade safe.
by rouzwelt
Ethereum's make it or break it!Whilst Bitcoin has shown clear technical signs of a bullish reversal (see earlier posts) and a C-phase of a Wyckoff accumulation, Ethereum is at a make it or break it point. Just like Bitcoin will be inherently bearish should it break below $30 000, Ethereum so far shows strength after having wicked on the diagonal primary trend line on the weekly. This area neatly coincided with the 618 fib. IF, however, Ethereum were to break these levels of support, things can turn sour and they can turn sour FAST! As we can see, Ethereum recently made an upper bearish blue RSI closing (for more on this, please watch the RSI trilogy on YT). The last time this happened was in February 2018 (see blue arrow) after which Ethereum proceeded to lose no less than -90% of its value over the upcoming ten months. Bitcoin and Ethereum both stand at an important cross roads. And as technical analysis is all based on probabilities and in identifying key areas of importance, as long as Bitcoin holds up its $30k support and Ethereum can defend the zone on the picture things do look good. On a final note, when things look good technically but feel bad emotionally, you're usually on the right track. That's why it usually feels great to buy at the peak and sell at the bottom. Adhering to the opposite whenever the technicals speak in favour for the bulls and vice versa is the winning path to go.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by LongLifeTrading
2
Wyckoff Accumulation on BTC 4hr.. LFG!Been meaning to share this for the last week or so when I mentioned I'd do a Wyckoff analysis... well here it is. Let me just state that I am NOT claiming to be a Wyckoff expert and you will see many different versions of this soon I'm sure, but I've been sharing these for the last few years now and have come to recognise these similar patterns play out across multiple time frames and right now on the 4h, it's hard not to see this. I've shared my current Wyckoff re-accumulation chart here and compared to my Jan 2020 analysis back when we were at 8k.. there are a lot of similarities, as you would expect of a true accumulation zone. One thing to remember though is that different market conditions and different players in the game will always see a slight variation of the "traditional" accumulation/distribution range. So we look for similarities in all patterns, not exact matches.. Hard not to see the similarities playing out... Due to us not staying below that big psychological number at 30k.. I feel we now in a re-accumulation range.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Unity-Trading-Group
10