BITCOIN - Light Up Those Green Candles BabyHello everyone, rouzwelt here
If you have watched my last video analysis on BTC chart (link of the video at bottom of this page), you know that I've been pointing out the price reaction to the main down trend line (yellow down-sloping line), I have said that price have clearly rejected many times from this line and every time that was a quick rejection, I mean that as soon as price reached that down trend line it quickly rejected, and that actually shows us that we needed more time at lower levels to be able to see higher prices for BTC.
Another thing that I have pointed out in my last video was that in order for BTC (at least in my opinion) to be able to head higher, break the down trend line without faking out and also giving us good opportunity to enter a long position, the price needs to be able to find some sort of short-term support around the down trend line and spend some time around that line and I believe that is already starting to happen in the chart and we can soon see some bullish actions. Anyway If this happens that would be good indication that BTC can head to higher levels and even maybe be a good sign for us to start interpreting the price action in 30/40k range as an accumulation zone.
I have projected a possible price action for this scenario in the chart (green arrow), for me personally at this stage where we got so many fake outs and rejections, if I want to open long position I need to see some clear signal and a good entry point, this scenario if it happens would be that signal which I want to see. I should note that we are seeing some volume coming in at rallies high which is a good sign that more buyers are coming in and the demand is increasing but we need to see that in higher timeframes like 4H or Daily. But mainly the macro trend is downward and it's against us if we want to go long, so if we want to go long at this stage we need a tight stop-loss, just remember that.
But let me quickly point out that BTC can get rejected at this level like many times before and that wouldn't be a surprise at all, so we need to be prepared as I have been talking about wyckoff redistribution playing out in the chart which can dump BTC to lower levels and if BTC start rejecting at this point that actually can form LPSY of wyckoff method which in that case I'd be looking for short setups, I have projected the likely price action of this scenario in the chart as well (red arrow).
Anyway, either way, bullish or bearish, I'm going to be prepared, I have planned my strategy, entry point and SL for both directions and all I do now is I'll be waiting for one those scenarios to happen and I suggest that you start to build your own, too.
That's all for now, have fun and trade safe.
Accumulation
Ethereum's make it or break it!Whilst Bitcoin has shown clear technical signs of a bullish reversal (see earlier posts) and a C-phase of a Wyckoff accumulation, Ethereum is at a make it or break it point.
Just like Bitcoin will be inherently bearish should it break below $30 000, Ethereum so far shows strength after having wicked on the diagonal primary trend line on the weekly. This area neatly coincided with the 618 fib.
IF, however, Ethereum were to break these levels of support, things can turn sour and they can turn sour FAST!
As we can see, Ethereum recently made an upper bearish blue RSI closing (for more on this, please watch the RSI trilogy on YT). The last time this happened was in February 2018 (see blue arrow) after which Ethereum proceeded to lose no less than -90% of its value over the upcoming ten months.
Bitcoin and Ethereum both stand at an important cross roads. And as technical analysis is all based on probabilities and in identifying key areas of importance, as long as Bitcoin holds up its $30k support and Ethereum can defend the zone on the picture things do look good.
On a final note, when things look good technically but feel bad emotionally, you're usually on the right track. That's why it usually feels great to buy at the peak and sell at the bottom. Adhering to the opposite whenever the technicals speak in favour for the bulls and vice versa is the winning path to go.
Wyckoff Accumulation on BTC 4hr.. LFG!Been meaning to share this for the last week or so when I mentioned I'd do a Wyckoff analysis... well here it is.
Let me just state that I am NOT claiming to be a Wyckoff expert and you will see many different versions of this soon I'm sure, but I've been sharing these for the last few years now and have come to recognise these similar patterns play out across multiple time frames and right now on the 4h, it's hard not to see this.
I've shared my current Wyckoff re-accumulation chart here and compared to my Jan 2020 analysis back when we were at 8k.. there are a lot of similarities, as you would expect of a true accumulation zone.
One thing to remember though is that different market conditions and different players in the game will always see a slight variation of the "traditional" accumulation/distribution range. So we look for similarities in all patterns, not exact matches..
Hard not to see the similarities playing out... Due to us not staying below that big psychological number at 30k.. I feel we now in a re-accumulation range.
Bitcoin - Wyckoff Events and Phases - Accumulation SchematicBitcoin - Wyckoff Events and Phases - Accumulation Schematic
This Wyckoff accumulation pattern seems to be playing out nicely.
More information on this Wyckoff and this pattern here:
school.stockcharts.com
Let me know what you think of this pattern and if you tink it will play out. 👍
BTC wyckoff Accumulation back in 2015I think taking a look at the past is one of the best ways to predict the future. History repeats itself over and over again.
Wyckoff always emphazised Volume as the best Indicator. He also challenged us to ask ourselves "what is the composite man doing right now?"
I think he was spreading FUD like crazy, while accumulating
Phase C
Remeber what the Spring aka Shakeout is: It’s usually the last attempt of the Composite Man to acquire shares at cheap prices before the mark-up move. Creating selling pressure forces retail traders to think that the current trading range will end in the mark-down movement (along with FUD) and exit or reverse their positions. The Composite Man waits for breakout to create enough liquidity and then rapidly covers all available supply resulting in price getting back into trading range.
Test: A small retracement to check if there is enough support at the bottom of the trading range after a shakeout. The Composite Man stops his buying pressure (as we see on VOL) and checks if the market has enough demand to not let price fall below the trading range. If so, the market is ready for the mark-up move. If not – the Composite Man continues his accumulation of available supply
Phase D
LPS: is the reaction after a Test rally. It usually retests previous levels which were considered a resistance. These reactions are usually quite slow and have no volume (as we see right now!)
Right now for BTC the VOL should stay low, because the Institutions stopped buying and manipulating, to check if the retail is ready to push the price up, or if there is any major selling pressure. This might take a while and might be a little more back and forth than in 2015. Once we break above 40-42k and CONFIRM it as support the Volume will come back in and from their we good.
BITCOIN'S BULLISH REVERSAL CONFIRMED!As continuously discussed over the last few weeks, both here and on the YT channel, we've long welcomed a fakeout down below the very key $30 000 support zone, but given that it would recover aggressively and at massive trading volumes.
We have now gotten EVERYTHING we've asked for and more in Bitcoin, and for those reasons there is a strong chance the bottom has in fact been set, and that new all-time highs are within reach.
What then are the things that further confirm this bullish reversal case?
1) As marked on the chart, we had a fakeout that turned into a bullish hammer on the 4-hour chart - and at significant trading volumes at that to let us know that the bulls are in full control and that they control the support zone.
2) The support zone held up. This is important as there is no support to speak of below until the previous all-time high at around $20 000.
3) The RSI is showing healthy patterns of recovery. This slow, gradual increase is a textbook sign of emerging strength.
These would all individually speak of strength. Now they come together as a force and I am convinced enough about this being a reversal to have moved all-in, not in Bitcoin, but in Marathon Digital Holdings, as it moves exponentially to that of Bitcoin.
Of course, there are still dangers lurking about. IF the price were to break below $30 000 again, then expect a brutal capitulation drop to take place. Luckily, there's a lot of built-up strength on the charts now to render that possibility unlikely. With that said, I will release EVERYTHING should Bitcoin break below again. One test below was the bullish fakeout to shake out the last weak hands that we asked for. A second revisit would change everything for the worse.
With that said, I am highly optimistic about this. And given that I bought in again at $33 000 equivalent, the stoploss is $3 000 below. But ... given that new all-time highs are fair to assume given the five month long wait in combination with the fact that we're technically still in a mark-up, $90 000 should be a conservative number before any significant correction of -20-30%. This means that the upside is $57 000 whereas the downside is $3 000. This gives us 19:1 in odds.
What this means is that as long as there's at least a 5% chance of this having been the bottom, then it's mathematically worth taking a long trade. And, I'd say it more than fair to assume that the chances of this being the bullish reversal we've been waiting for is far higher than 5%.
BULLISH on SilverHey Traders,
I want to share with you guys the multi month ascending triangle I've spotted on Silver. I'm very certain that at some point soon we will have a massive breakout as we've been accumulating for almost a year! Couple that with the coming inflation and cycle out of risk on assets and we have ourselves a winner. This trade will probably take some time to play out but it looks very promising! As always remember exercise good risk management and like and follow if you found this helpful!
1 year: Impact of Institutional accumulations on Bitcoin pricesAny feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
In this post, we have attempted to cover some of the major institutional accumulations that has happened in Bitcoin since June 2020.
Bitcoin's rise over the past 1 year has been phenomenal. The rise does not only mean in terms of prices, but also as an attractive asset class that provides a much-needed diversification. During the pandemic, the response towards Bitcoin has been nothing short of extraordinary. Both institutional investors and retail traders understood the importance of Bitcoin in building long term wealth.
The data presented in this analysis has been researched and curated from different portals such as Tradingview, Coindesk, Forbes and Twitter. We have reviewed five different dates where the volumes have spiked up massively owing to news surrounding accumulation of institutional investors.
It should be noted that the dates mentioned here reflect the news coming to limelight regarding the accumulation. It does not necessarily imply that all the accumulation happened on that exact day.
02nd June 2020: BTC closed at $9525.73
Fidelity Investments stated in their report that the number of institutions buying Crypto derivatives products has more than doubled.
27th July 2020: BTC closed at $11,046.19
Report shows Bitcoin futures surging past 186% as institutional accumulation of the underlying continues at a massive pace. BTC jumps up above $11k.
20th October 2020: BTC closed at $12,802.67
Paypal announces its acceptance of Bitcoin for payments. This time the accumulation is fuelled from both institutional and retail end.
17th December 2020: BTC closed at $22,814.24
Grayscale investments increased their Bitcoin holdings by double digit figures over the past few months. Bitcoin shot up by approximately 7% following the report.
29th January 2021: BTC closed at $34,249.64
Carthie Wood's ARK publish that Bitcoin climb unto $400K as hedge funds and several other institutions are steadily increasing their Bitcoin and crypto holdings.
Another interesting piece that has come up very recently is MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR , a business analytics firm has purchased around 13,005 Bitcoins, amounting to approximately $489 million, on Monday, 21st June 2021.
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
Minor fakeout to $27 000 in Bitcoin before shooting for new ATHsMany people wonder and fear whether Bitcoin has to go on the downside - if it can make it as low as $24 000, $20 000 or even lower. The longer we move around in this sideways range, the more technically convinced I become that this is an accumulation phase in the making.
This time we'll go beyond mere technicals and back up our claims with fundamentals too.
First of all, the Bitcoin fear and greed index is at a staggeringly low 10 out of 100. This means that people to a great extent have lost hope for Bitcoin and that they expect further downside to follow. Anyone who has studied market psychology knows that the market looks to inflict a maximum level of pain to as many market participants as possible at any given time. This is why it feels so good to buy at the top and terrifying to buy at the bottom, where each tick down makes you want to pull that catapult - and perhaps often do, too.
The current state in crypto space is what Warren Buffett notoriously refers to as "blood in the streets". For the often so golden brick crypto roads are presently full of noob and hodler blood that exits the market. But for every seller there is a buyer. At these levels it is the institutions - the collectives of funds that possess more money than any of us pathetic retailers can ever fathom. Those institutions are the entities that can move the price. And those institutions are buying heavily at these levels. And mind you, those are what we commonly refer to as "smart money".
Secondly, so far we have a textbook Wyckoff accumulation in play. It barely gets any more obvious than this. In an episode on my channel a couple of weeks ago I talked about how a fakeout to around $27 000 would both make perfect sense (as accumulations are typically followed by a final fakeout to shakeout the final weak hands) and how it would be inherently bullish for the crypto space. That analysis is fully in play and as long as Bitcoin does get that bounce reaction, things fully align with our technical expectations.
#Bitcoin Road To $100K - Wyckoff Accumulation UpdatedI've digged deeper in to details and updated the accumulation phase we are entering. While the length of each phase can differ, this is pretty much what it will look like to reach $100k.
So, sideways accumulation looks like it will continue in trading range until October, while institutions accumulate, following a rally / markup to $80k and the distribution will begin, topping at 102k by the end of January and then the cycle will repeat. Forever. Laura.
:)))