Accumulation
Palantir's share price could easily double from here!This idea is based on Wyckoff's method. The Point $ Figure accumulation count serves as a way to determine the target objective based on the accumulation count in the base.
All other information is in the chart.
NQdecipher
Part II of BABA thesis using Wyckoff phases and volume analysisThis Idea is part II to the previously published BABA idea using Wyckoff's accumulation method. This idea includes the identification of the different Wyckoff accumulation phases and the characteristic accompanying volume analysis.
All information is on the chart!
NQdecipher
How to Use the Accumulation/Distribution IndicatorLearning how to identify accumulation and distribution in an asset is an important skill to have for any trader. Luckily, there’s a handy tool we can use: the aptly-named Accumulation/Distribution indicator.
In this article, we’ll show you how this accumulation/distribution indicator works, where it’s best applied, and how you can combine it with other tools to boost your odds of success.
What Is the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator?
The accumulation/distribution indicator, also called the accumulation/distribution index, accumulation/distribution line, and abbreviated to A/D, is a cumulative indicator that uses price and volume data to measure the strength of an asset’s trend. It helps traders identify buying and selling pressure in the market and can show whether an asset is likely to continue trending or is due for a reversal. It was created by renowned trader Marc Chaikin, who also developed the famous Chaikin Money Flow indicator.
Accumulation vs Distribution
Accumulation occurs when buying pressure outweighs selling pressure, resulting in price appreciation. Conversely, distribution is where sellers have the upper hand over buyers, creating downward momentum. In practice, the plotted A/D line will move up when accumulation is present and down when distribution occurs.
Accumulation/Distribution Oscillator Formula and Components
The ADI seeks to quantify an asset's buying and selling pressure by considering its trading range and trading volume.
First, it calculates the Money Flow Multiplier (MFM) using the following formula:
MFM= ((Close−Low)−(High−Close)) / High−Low
This results in a reading between -1 and 1. When the price closes in the upper half of its high-low range, the MFM will be positive. If it closes in the lower half, then MFM will be negative. In other words, if buying pressure is strong, the MFM will rise, and vice versa.
Second, it generates the Money Flow Volume (MFV) with the following:
Money Flow Volume = MFM × Volume
For the first candle in a given chart, the MFV is the first A/D value. Since the indicator is cumulative, the MFV is added to the previous A/D value. In essence:
First Calculation = (ADI = MFV)
Subsequent Calculations = (ADI + MFV)
This then creates the A/D line. While it may seem unnecessary to know the formula, it can provide us with significant insight into how an accumulation/distribution rating is given. For example, a strong bullish trend may cause an asset to close high in its trading range, producing an MFM reading close to 1. If this is backed up by high volume, the A/D line will surge upward. However, if the volume is lacking, then the A/D may only increase slightly.
Thankfully, we don’t need to perform this calculation ourselves. With the free TickTrader platform we offer at FXOpen, you’ll find the accumulation/distribution indicator and dozens of other tools ready to help you navigate the markets.
How to Use the Accumulation Distribution Indicator
There are three popular ways to use the A/D indicator: identifying reversals, trend confirmation, and trading breakouts.
Identifying Reversals
One of the most effective uses of A/D is to spot potential reversals using divergences between the price and the A/D line.
A bullish divergence occurs when the price falls, making lower lows, while the A/D line trends upward, creating higher lows. Conversely, a bearish divergence can be seen when an asset makes new highs, but the A/D puts in lower highs.
It essentially shows us that while the price is moving in a specific direction, the underlying pressure supporting the move is waning. The example above demonstrates that fewer sellers are participating as the trend progresses lower; eventually, buyers take over and push the price much higher.
Trend Confirmation
A/D line can also be used to confirm the direction of a trend. In this context, traders monitor the alignment of the line with the price action.
In an uptrend, both the price and A/D should be rising. If the A/D moves in the same direction as the price, it confirms the strength of the uptrend and suggests that the buying pressure is likely to continue. As in the chart, traders could have used the A/D and price alignment to position themselves in the direction of the bull trend.
Similarly, during a downtrend, the price and the A/D should be falling. If the A/D is falling alongside the price, it indicates that the selling pressure is strong, and the downtrend is likely to persist.
Trading Breakouts
Lastly, A/D can help traders confirm breakouts beyond support/resistance levels. If there’s a critical level that a trader is watching to jump in on the breakout, a breakout beyond a similar level in the A/D indicator can signal the start of a new trend.
In the example, we see a strong resistance level, both in price and the accumulation distribution chart. As the move is confirmed by A/D, breaking out above both dashed lines, traders have confidence that the price is ready to move higher.
Integrating the Accumulation and Distribution Indicator with Other Tools
While the A/D indicator is a valuable tool on its own, it’s best to use it in combination with other indicators to help filter out false signals and improve the accuracy of your predictions. Let’s take a look at two indicators to integrate with A/D: moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Moving Averages
Moving averages are a popular tool used by many traders to determine the direction of a trend, especially when two moving averages cross over. As mentioned, the trajectory of the A/D line can show traders that a trend is supported by volume; similarly, a price sitting above or below a moving average can indicate a trend’s direction. Using the two together can provide an at-a-glance reading of a trend, which can be extremely useful for trend-following traders.
In this example, we’ve used the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross indicator in TickTrader, with two 20-period and 50-period EMAs. The fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, showing that a potential bullish trend is forming. The price continues to stay well above the 50-period EMA as time progresses, demonstrating that there’s a strong bull trend.
We also have confirmation from the A/D line that the bullish momentum is backed up by supporting volume. Seeing this, traders can be confident that the trend will continue. When the EMAs cross over bearishly, as seen on the right-hand side, traders may start looking for the A/D line to confirm that a bearish trend has started and exit their position.
RSI
Similar to the A/D indicator, RSI can be used to both spot divergences and confirm trends. The divergences are the same as A/D; a lower low in a price with a higher low in the RSI indicates a potential bullish reversal, while a price making a higher high and a lower low in RSI is regarded as bearish. Meanwhile, an RSI reading above 50 is typically seen as bullish, while below is bearish.
Using the two indicators together can offer traders extra confluence that the market is headed in a particular direction. In the chart shown, we can see that the price is making a lower low. However, the Apple stock’s accumulation/distribution line shows a bullish divergence, as does the RSI.
Traders could have marked the most recent area of resistance (dashed line), and then waited for the price to break out above it before looking for an entry. This move was confirmed by the RSI moving above 50, showing that bullish momentum is truly entering the market and offering multiple factors of confluence.
What to Do Next
You now have a comprehensive understanding of the accumulation/distribution indicator, including its formulation, its three main uses, and how to combine it with other indicators for extra confirmation. Ready to put your newfound knowledge to the test? You can open an FXOpen account to apply what you’ve learned and hone your trading skills across a diverse range of markets, from forex and commodities to stocks and indices.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TCS: Bullish Bat Spring Backtest with Hidden Bullish DivergenceThe Container Store on the weekly timeframe is potentially Backtesting the Spring of a Range and is showing what looks to be Hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD at the PCZ of what would be a Bullish Bat.
ARBUSDT.P Trading IdeaHi everyone,
Current state looks like an 'Accumulation type #2', and I would expect the following move of the price upper from 0.5 of the wick.
We have lots of liquidity at the top, and sweeped enough liquidity from the bottom side. If switch to the 1W or 1D timeframe, we can see, that the last move has taken the key liquidity from the bottom side.
Someone accumulating SHOP post earnings?Yet another Wyckoff pattern. I believe this pattern matches the Wyckoff schematic shared in the chart. I am making my list and checking it twice...
Wyckoff checklist:
PS—preliminary support, Done
SC—selling climax, Done
AR—automatic rally, Done
ST—secondary test, Done
Spring - optional, Done
Test— test, ACTIVE. We are looking for a series of higher lows to confirm the uptrend. We have yet to confirm the first higher low.
SOS—sign of strength,
LPS—last point of support,
BU—“back-up”,
BABA is going much Higher based on Wyckoff accumulation count This idea is based on Wyckoff's accumulation schematic. Based on the recent price action, BABA has shown sign of strength when it jumped out of the creek and retested its upper limit 2 times now.
Based on the accumulation count, BABA should move pretty fast to 430-450 once it breaks out of the upper range limit of the accumulation range.
All info is on the chart.
Good luck
GNRC a Wyckoff Reset in the making Accumulation PhaseGNRC
Stock Price:102.78
Difference: $6.50 (undervalued)
Over all Avg Price: $109
My Enterprise Value Price(enterprise value/outstanding shares): HKEX:122
True Price Value (market cap/outstanding): HKEX:104
Float Price (market cap/float): FWB:108
Market Capitalization: HKEX:6 ,470,000,000
outstanding shares: 62,030,000
float : 59,730,000
ev value: 7,550,000,000
p/e :18.98
eps : 5.41
PE ratio: 18.99815157
Weighted P/e: 2.5219906
Basically all this is saying is no matter how you look at the avg price of this stock, the current price is undervalued by min $2.00.
The Big Picture
Past
The last time GNRC moved off its low right after the same Monthly Push down to start the process. Watch the lines see them converge. You don't understand these lines because you haven't been listening to me rant. These lines are every time frames Marriage of price and vol in one line. Along with the skinnier line with no kinks as the vol avg for that time frame.... When all these lines converge into one area along with price, accompany that with a larger time frame and you have something like what a rail gun is compared to a sling shot. the first move reaches then comes back down reloads and is launched double or more. and then its off and running.
Present
at double the price look at the lines... price is just under it and the lines are in a $15 range....what's needed to get them together? another push down? Time? a pop in price? Lets look at the supply vs the demand
A closer look
I marked the areas of the candles that had the highest percentage of buying and selling since it hit this zone. There are two bounces once it gets pushed down. I am not saying this won't go down. I am saying that at this price its a good deal. Depending on if they use the earnings on May 05 as a catalyst to run this up and back down then launch or this takes off before hand and the earnings is used to drop it to regain the final part of the float and make all of these lines converge.....one way or the other it starts at this price point. Look at the institutional ownership and where they bought? The top 17 Institutions that bought into this stock all bought on Dec 31, 2022. Every single one of them increased their position by more than 500%.
I will do you one better, the top position holders of this stock, institutional, all bought or increased their shares on Dec 31, 2022. All 83 institutionals that own the most shares bought or adjusted thier shares on that date and the price range for that date was. $95.50- HKEX:103
Did you miss NVDA's move? What now?NVDA's gap up on a stellar earnings report should NOT have been a surprise, as the chart has been showing strength since January when I mentioned it in my Morning Reports. It was completing the bottom at that time.
The trend upward was showing pro traders in control of price after Dark Pool quiet accumulation. It has 64% of the shares held by institutions, which is normal for a giant-cap stock. It should actually be a Dow 30 component rather than INTC but, alas, that won't happen for a while.
NVDA stair-stepped upward. This is probably one of the hardest trendline patterns to see without rectangles drawn around the step, but one of the most important to recognize professional buyer dominance.
What now? The gains are now extreme. And the pros are taking profits. That means there is very high risk for buying at this moment.
CAN it move higher? Of course! Euphoric retail buying can easily drive prices upward further for a short period of time. Just remember that without institutional buying at this level, any upside from here may be short-lived.
Bank Nifty Trade Setup (26-May-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to initiate trade according to this setup.
Picture is worth a thousand Words as from the chart Bank Nifty is moving between 751 points from 11th May and if traded with patience and with proper trade setups one can make profits.
This will be my Trade Setup for Tomorrow:
From price action we can see price is moving in Horizontal Channel and Today it made lows and took support near same zone which is previously tested as long as price don't don't this zone we have to trade within this range of 770 points. Setup will be
1.) If it opens flat nearby support is 43633 if it sustains this support on 15 mins then will look for CE Buy for nearby resistance which is placed at 43756 and then 43830.
2.) If gap down will look for price to take support at same support zone where it took support today or it's same as Today's low. and will take CE Trade from that level.
3.) If opens gap up then i will look at resistance which is 43756 and 43830 then i will look for PE Trades for nearby support zone or CPR levels.
Views are on long trade if it respects this channel.
maybe we can see break above this channel on last monthly Expiry :)
Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal also if you can help as Trading View is holding rewards if Ideas or Script can be listed in Editor Picks :) . also one can comment how i can make it better or any improvements i can make in my trading setups or improving this journal.
BTC Wickoff 2022-2023 Shake out-Mark up?Hi dear community and my lovely followers.
I would like to add another analysis which add more confluence to my previous analyses that BTC is preparing for another huge jump.
As you see I Have drown BTC wickoff accumulation model 2022-2023 which shows that BTC hasn't only bottomed out but also has finished its main accumulation phase/A,B,C,D/ and now it is in a phase E /both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by Smart money/. In phase E can be small shakouts which we show at the moment, stay level headed, keep patience as BTC is preparing for Mark up to 35-37K.
As I published in my previous analyses, I expect BTC to pump from 26K zone and think BTC has bottomed testing 200 weekly MA and 100 daily MA, but the worst case scenario could be test of previous support zone at 24.2-25K where Smart money will add their bags before new highs.
I don't expect lower prices specially after taking out huge amount liquidity below 27K and 26.5k. BTW taking into account some bearish chart patterns/like H&S, rising wedge breakdown/ 99% expect 25K and even lower prices, as a contrarian trader I always go against the herd and expect bounce from this zone/although I have plan for both scenarios/.
Don't forget to check my previous analyses/below this one/ where I shows you what are other factors which force me to expect higher prices. Don't be shake out, BTC will surprice everyone. I will also add more charts below this one, where you can find very interesting views.
Don't forget to follow, like, comment, retweet. I will appreciate any kind of support.
Have a good day , I wish you good trades.
📈How to Day Trade with Trend: Accumulation📍The accumulation stage in trading refers to a period when market participants are accumulating a particular asset, typically with the expectation of a future price increase. During this phase, the price of the asset tends to range between two significant levels known as support and resistance. Traders closely observe these price levels as they provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the upcoming breakout.
📍Support and resistance levels are psychological and technical barriers that the price of an asset tends to respect.
🔹Support represents a price level where buying pressure is expected to outweigh selling pressure, causing the price to "bounce" or reverse its downward movement.
🔹Resistance represents a price level where selling pressure is expected to exceed buying pressure, causing the price to reverse its upward movement.
📍During the accumulation stage, the price of the asset oscillates within a range defined by these support and resistance levels. Market participants who believe in the potential upside of the asset accumulate it by buying at or near the support level. As the price approaches the resistance level, some traders start to take profits or sell their holdings, creating selling pressure that prevents the price from advancing further. This creates a cyclical pattern of price movement between the support and resistance levels, resulting in a range-bound market.
It's important to note that the accumulation stage and subsequent breakout are not always easy to predict. False breakouts, where the price briefly moves beyond a support or resistance level but quickly reverse
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Maker Enters Prior Accumulation RangeMaker has gotten pounded over the past year, beaten all the way down to its 2019 accumulation range. Looks quite intriguing, severely oversold with a few on chain whales shuffling in. Looks like do or die for this coin in this range - however R/R looks good added to the watchlist.
VIPS (Long) - Undervalued Outperforming Chinese GemFundamentals
The Chinese market has not performed rather well year-to-date, which makes the price action of VIPS that more impressive .
Despite the wider market struggling, the firm showed strong growth last year with 35% growth in earnings. The recovering Chinese market might propel even more demand (which is the Chinese government actively supporting) and of which NYSE:VIPS would be one of the major beneficiaries
The company is also quite undervalued with P/E = 9.8 and P/S = 0.6
The fundamentals are pristine with negligible amount of debt and high returns on equity and assets
The market is smelling internal strength and earnings next week might serve as a perfect propellent to rocket the stock out of the base
Technicals
The company has been basing and creating a rounding base since the start of the year
My main selling point is the impressive relative strength . While the Chinese tech market has been deteriorating since the start of the year, VIPS has been standing strong, buying back every possible breakdown. I have been actively watching price action on this stock for two months and investors are actively buying any potential downside.
Relative strength against AMEX:KWEB is shown at the bottom of the chart, clearly pointing higher; RSI is breaking above 60; MACD is breaking out; stochastics are showing strength and the A/D line has been strengthening throughout the basing process
Overall, the pattern very much looks like a bull flag about to break out
Trade
One option is to enter now and catch a perfect buy point, but then there is a need to risk a negative earnings surprise (I chose this option and entered today)
Or wait until after the earnings which would be safer but risking a worse buying point; decision is up to your risk appetite
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help
If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
EOS/USD 1W. Basic trend. Potentials and manipulations.Here's the EOS/USD 1W Chart on Bitfinex(long history).
Right now we can see the horizontal channel forming. In this channel harmonic pattern on daily TF formed and worked out the first target, which is the middle of this local horizontal accumulation channel, in terms of 1w TF.
Now we're near the support of this channel 0.86$. Recently the big amount of EOS were deposited on the exchanges.
Showed the classical potential manipulation - look.
On the bottom we have the support zone. Also it's 0/61(16)$ zone which often acts as bottom.
This 0.61$ zone is -25% from the current support which is basic percent for pulling out stop losses.
Though, if the market gives an "opportunity" it can dump further. The global support is 0.5$. This is also a possibility.
And if on the moment it's very scary - the price can drop up to 0.36, which is also -25% but from the main support 0.5$. It will be 0.36 $ zone.
Still, the potential is very good. Shown the potential distribution(local distribution) zone on chart.
Those are - 2.5$; 5$ and then maybe 15$ but probably not in this local cycle.
You can potentially work martingale in this type of situation, which means buy more if price drops.
BATA INDIA IN TIGHT ACCUMULATION RANGEThe price trading inside tight accumulation range and now near the support level of 1380. Price formed strong base which showing price can given breakout in coming trading sessions. Price forming low risk & high reward setup. My initial targets will be 1440/1477/1522+ for the upside. Above 1455+ closing will give a massive breakout in the price and price sharply move towards the upper level. Remember this longer the range stronger the breakout. Breakdown below 1380 will leads to more fall in the price.
Accumulation Patterns - very bullish background Coterra EnergyAssessing the market according to the wyckoff method, we see a classic accumulation in the attached chart.
1.2.3 - Shortening of Thrust - smaller and smaller distances between particular lows on the chart. A sign that sellers are losing power.
833.263.173 - decreasing volume on lows. The numbers in the chart are the sum of the number of shares sold on swings divided by 100k (ex on chart 833 = 8,330,0000)
742 - The largest buying wave in the system confirms that institutional capital has been pumped in.
A very interesting last candle suggesting that there is still an upsell and most likely we are dealing with the absorption of short selling by professionals
Value with a large potential range of growth
Indicators used: Wyckoff Wave Chart
What do you think about this chart?
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Wyckoff Cycle - Practical Example 📚Dear TradingView community and fellow traders,
I am Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
I find the BTC weekly chart to be intriguing as it appears to be following the famous Wyckoff Cycle.
I would like to apply Richard Wyckoff's four market stages/phases to this chart for analysis as a practical example.
1️⃣ Distribution
BTC appears to have rejected the 68,000 level and is now in a distribution phase
2️⃣ MarkDown
After breaking below 56,500 back in November 2021, BTC entered the MarkDown phase and began making lower highs and lower lows.
📉 The bearish impulse movements were initially large and steep. However, starting in July 2022, the bears seem to have exhausted themselves, resulting in a flat and small impulse movement.
According to Charles Dow, this signals an early alert for a potential shift in momentum, which brings us to the Accumulation phase as per Richard Wyckoff.
3️⃣ Accumulation
BTC is currently trading within a big range between 15,500 and 25,000 in the shape of an inverse head and shoulders as it forms a minor lower low followed by a higher low.
4️⃣ MarkUp
BTC broke above the previous major high marked in gray, indicating that the bulls may finally be strong enough to take over for the first time since late 2021, thus entering the MarkUp phase.
🏹 BTC is now approaching a key resistance/supply zone. For the bulls to remain in control from a long-term perspective, we need a weekly candle close above 32,000. Alternatively, the bears may still form one last HL before BTC breaks above 32,000.
I hope you find this post useful, and I would appreciate your likes and support.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard
EURUSD in DepthThis is the bigger picture of the main Idea that I posted on the Daily time frame. Here we can see the accumulation with the beautiful volumes in the demand zone of the range. The level of control can be seen on the daily time frame in the attached idea and it is in the same are of the demand zone. So the Level of control is validated and playing an important role in defending the price to not falling.
So we have now the complete setup. Good luck.