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#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btcGood Evening and I hope you are well. bitcoin Quote from last week: bull case: 67600 is do or die for bulls. When this bull trend line breaks, their chances of another leg up are becoming very low. If market turns up again with momentum, we can see 70000 again and there market decides if it can try again of reaching higher prices. So far bulls were rejected 5 times above 70000. comment: Bulls delivered and we traded back to above 71000, just to be rejected the 5th time now. Can bulls do it again and break above or will enough of them give up and we see a bigger leg down to 56000? I don’t know, neither do you or anybody else. Don’t get fooled by anyone telling you he/she knows. We are playing a game of probabilities and if-then statements. Right now mine goes as follows, if bears break below 68400, we will see 67000ish again and there market decides if it wants to do a bigger leg down or stay at the highs. if bulls break above 70000 again, I don’t think the bear trend line will hold a 6th time and we will retest 73800 and probably print a new ath. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 66500 - 72000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range) bull case: Bulls want to stay above 68000 and finally break above the bear trend line and retest the ath. They are still above the daily ema and the bull trend line lives but they need to trade up only from here or we break below. Invalidation is below 67000. bear case: Bears are doing the minimum required and rejecting bulls above 70000/71000. So they keep selling the highs but their current follow through is just not there. Last time we were above 70000 in March, market tried 3 times to stay above 70000 before breaking down to 56537. If bears do not break below the small bull trend line and the daily ema soon, I don’t think they will prevent the bulls from getting a new ath. If they get a big bear breakout below 68000, we could see bulls finally giving up and we could be in a W1 of the new bigger bear trend down to 50000 or lower. My preferred short term path is the red ABC correction. Invalidation is above 72000. short term: Neutral between 68000 - 69000, bullish above 69000 for 71000 where I will watch closely how strong the move is and if they could try to go for 73000 or higher. medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000. current swing trade: None chart update: Added the 5-wave series and two-legged correction.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. dax xetra - this is the first time I post a xetra chart as well. I trade the dax cfd but I want to find out how big the interest in my post is for xetra vs cfd. Only difference is in price. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18500. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 525 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 940 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18500ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18770 or possibly even wait for 18880 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it. comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18550 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 / 18900 bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 17700 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 18900. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently. Invalidation is a daily close above 18650. outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18650 early next week. TP 18770 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18250 fast and below that is 17900.” → Last Sunday we traded 18497 and now we are at 18557. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18650 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either. short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 17900 over the next 1-3 weeks. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions. Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 18890 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 18900, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19400 or 20000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They closed 3 consecutive days below the daily 20ema and it was the 3rd consecutive monthly close below 18800. They also printed 3 consecutive weekly bear bars. Having said all that, bears sold off for 572 points while the last pull-back from the previous ath sold off for 1229 points. So what did they accomplish in the past 3 weeks? Not much. Are they really betting on a big acceleration downward now at the bull trend line, after they tried for 3 weeks now or will the face the reality, that the market does not want to go lower and will give up on shorts? Only possibility I see is that they get a big big gap down on Monday Globex or early on to stay below the breakout price of 18650ish (counting only the bar body). If bulls get above the daily ema again, I think they will give up and they would try again 18800 or possibly even wait for 19000 again. If we get a leg up and it’s strong, I can see bears just not even trying and we would find out where bulls want to take it. comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 / 19000 bull case: It’s a trading range near the ath and that’s all there is to it. If market was rejecting higher prices, we would have traded below 18000 long time ago. The bullish gap#2 stayed open and there is an argument for a head & shoulders bottom with the neckline 18600 and a measured move would bring us right back to retest 19000. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Unless bears print a big daily bear bar below 18400, they are not doing much. Thursday and Friday we made higher highs and higher lows and I do think bears will give up on Monday if the buying pressure is strong enough. Not much more magic to it currently. Invalidation is a daily close above 18700. outlook last week: “In favor of bulls, if they break 18700 early next week. TP 18800 at least but I think we can do a total ripper. If bears somehow manage to keep it below 18700, we can retest the lows and if they do a big surprise below 18400, we will see 18300 fast and below that is 18000.” → Last Sunday we traded 18638 and now we are at 18572. Bulls got a higher high but bears kept it below 18700 for the week. Not the worst outlook but not on point either. short term: Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None and depending on Wednesday, I will initiate new positions. Chart update: The wave thesis is gone. This sideways movement has gone on for too long and we might see 19000 again but just as a leg inside a trading range. If it strongly moves way beyond 19000, I’m wrong and we might be on our way to 19500 or 20000.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. comment: Fair to say that bears surprised me big time on Monday with the huge follow through selling through previous bigger support. 72 stopped the fall and created an expected bounce. I do think this was W5 and my bearish targets are all met for now. Market should move sideways to up from here. On Friday we got a perfect retest of the breakout price of 76 and that was resistance for now. Worst case scenario for bulls would be to stay below 76. The bull trend line will get retested and should hold for now. current market cycle: Bear trend which could transition into a trading range here key levels: 72-78 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Huge bear surprise imo on Monday and bears want to keep it max bearish and they will do that by keeping the market below the breakout price around 76 and below the daily ema. They want a retest of 72.5 again and poke the bull trend line enough for bulls to give up there. If they actually get an acceleration of this bear trend, which is the low probability thing, they could retest 70 next and below 70 comes 67 as support. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.” → Last Sunday we traded 76.99 and now we are at 75.53. High of the week was 77.52 so the uber bearish price action, was surprising to me. I did not advise you to be bullish, unless there confirmation for the bulls and obviously that did not happen. So my bearish target of 75, if we go below 76, was alright but way too short of 72.48. Not a good outlook. short term: Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. current swing trade: None chart update: Added my pretty bear channel, adjusted 5-wave series and added a two-legged pullback, which we are probably in as of now. The red ABC is how I imagine it to play out price-wise, not time wise. We should see a retest of the lows as well as the daily ema. I don’t know which comes before what or when. Also adjusted the big bear trend line from 2022.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Day and I hope you are well. old futures Quote from last week: bear case: The smaller bull trend line was clearly broken and retested and the higher time frames also give more sell than buy signals. It’s a two-legged correction here to the ema and that is a perfect sell signal. They want follow through on Monday for target 2300. comment: This market behaved as I said it would. The high of 2406 was a bit higher than expected but overall read was perfect. We are in W3 which should lead a bit lower to around 2270ish before we get another sideways to up movement. If W4 stays below 2350, W5 should bring us to at least 2200. That is a 120 point move in Gold for you. Let’s see how it will play out. Small possibility that 2300 stays support and we move more sideways. Would reevaluate my take on this then. current market cycle: trading range until break below 2300 , which would confirm a bear trend, probably down to 2200. I favor the bears heavily here but leave room for 2300 being stronger support than I think it is. key levels: 2300 - 2400 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play bull case: Bulls continued in the expanding triangle and got their retest of 2400, just to be violently sold by the bears. Twitter and news salespeople want you to believe it was due to news that China won’t buy any more Gold. But how do they explain the W1 from 2477 down to 2334? That started 2 weeks ago. Only objective now for the bulls is to keep it above 2300, otherwise 2270 comes next. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: My bear channel tells how you I feel about Gold. Now bears need to print lower lows and keep the pull-back for W4 mostly sideways and under 2350. I fully expect to hit 2200 over the next weeks and then we will find out how many people want to buy Gold again. Invalidation is above 2360. outlook last week: “Still preferring that second leg down to 2200. Bearish below 2340 and neutral 2340-2390.” → Last Sunday we traded 2345 and now we are at 2325. My target to the EMA was on point and good for about 30 points and my downward target to 2270 is still valid. Good outlook. short term: Bearish. Big bear surprise on Friday and I expect follow through. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged current swing trade: Short from 2374. SL is 2406. Chart update: I like my new bear channel. I trade it and I made money so far with it. Hope you can make some too with it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #4Good day and i hope you are well. Last time i talked about Nvidia was 2024-02-23 and Nvidia was at 823 and my targets were 900/1000. Time for an update. comment: It's the stock everyone talks about and the peak insanity bubble of this generation before the next financial crisis. There, I said it. Feel free to stop reading now if you don't like it. I look at charts and comment on patterns I see and what I think will most likely happen or not. If the picture is unclear, we are in a trading range. Obviously not the case for this gem. You can study parabolic wedge tops and see repeating patterns, therefore you can make predictions about the possibility of future price movements. This stock will be the posterchild of a bubble pop, just like Bitcoin was in 2021 when it did a 50% pull-back from 64000 to 30000. For you guys, I commented on the Bitcoin parabolic wedge top from 2020/2021 to illustrate my point. See below. Probably 99% of twitter wants you to think Nvidia goes to infinity, just like Bitcoin in 2021 but they only do that at the peak of the bubble while the market is going parabolic. They are so euphoric that they never seem interested in studying market behavior in the past. If you truely believe them and the "this time it's different...", good luck. The party will probably continue some more, just like it did with bitcoin. But at some point, mostly the point where your friends, who know the same about the financial markets as about quantum physics, will tell you they bought Nvidia, it will turn because there is no one willing left to buy and the only thing the stock can do is go down to find new buyers. If that move is strong enough, well, the fair price might be lower than you think. -dotcom everyone thought everything with an internet address could only print money for infinity -gfc everyone thought housing prices can only go up and for sure this time it's different -what shall we call the next GFC? Will it be the everything bubble? Who gives a flying f. Cycles repeat. It's never different. This cycle was just moved so far off, because of the biggest money printing experiment in history. Markets do not change because they reflect human behavior. This market will deflate and so will this stock. Please rub it in my face when we are in 2025 and Nvidia trades at 3000. Please do. Maybe I will learn something from it. Here is my usual writing for weekly recaps & outlooks current market cycle: parabolic wedge top - peak bubble behavior key levels: 1150-1500 bull case: Everything. Stock can only go up. Every dip is bought. Daddy Jensen is signing breasts and most people think AI will be an infinite money glitch. Invalidation is below 1170ish. bear case: No bear case. Every bull trend line is valid. Pull-backs are shallow and bought. Market is printing consecutive uber bullish gaps. If you think anything about this is bearish right now, look at the weekly/monthly tf and think again. "But you are saying it will pop..." Well yeah but as of right now, nothing is deflating for this stock. I'm giving you my reasoning why buying into a W5 (third push up) while most indixes are at or near all time highs, might be a bad idea. When everyone and their dog is max bullish, you could think twice about doing the same. Invalidation is above 1400. short term: It's reasonable to expect another push up in this tight bull channel for a high around 1300-1400. medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. current swing trade: hell naw.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by priceactiontds
2
2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Very similar to nasdaq so if you are a regular reader, I won’t bore you with a long talk about trading ranges. Bears showed some strength from bar 36 - 53 but bulls are still in BTFD mode and as long as that is profitable, this is what they will continue to do. Bulls are in full control and found acceptance at the highs today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5320 - 5373 bull case: I think the first time I calculated the 5560 target for sp500 was in February or something. I did not believe we could get there but here we are. If bulls get another break above the current ath and 5400, we can absolutely get there rather sooner than later. Bulls will continue to try buying every dip and it’s just a matter of bears giving up again. Bull trend lines are alive and well and there is no reason for bulls to exit longs. I think they want to keep it above 5350 or bears might think they have a chance. Invalidation is below 5320. bear case: Bears tried and failed, twice. Two-legged moves inside trading ranges are the norm, so everything was in order today for the bulls. Bears are in pain and if bulls can get another strong momentum rally above 5373, we can see capitulation again. If bears manage to somehow break the drawn bull trend line and get strong closes below 5350, we could see 5300. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Full bull until clear trend-line break and prices below 5350. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: 5370 was rejected many times today, was good for short scalps. Other than that, very tricky day. Buying bar 49 was reasonable but bar 53 was a very big surprise which got many stops. Losing is part of this game, accept it and make peace with it.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears keep rejecting 71000 and it’s the 4th time bulls touched it. Something has to give, either bulls stop trying or bears defending. My money is on the bears. The bull trend line runs around 68500 and if bears can get below, I am confident that this was the last we have seen from prices above 68000 for a long time. If bulls can break above 72000, they will certainly print a new ath and it also means I’m wrong. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 56000 - 74000 bull case: Bulls either use the momentum now to print above 72000 or stop trying. The big bear trend line from the ath is holding somewhat since we are still making lower highs. I can’t find many arguments for the bulls here. They printed a decent double top on the 1h chart and a quadruple top on the daily chart. They kept the 1h bull gap to 69800 open and are 2000 points above the daily ema. Bull trend lines are intact, so they could continue trying to break above 72000. Invalidation is below 69000. bear case: They see the many many rejections above 71000 and the double top from today. They need much more selling pressure to close the gap to 69800 and test the lower bull trend line and the daily ema around 69000. Invalidation is above 72000. short term: Neutral between 69000 - 72000. Bullish above, bearish below. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged current swing trade: Short from 70443, sl 71950 trade of the day: Trading range 70000 - 71500. Buy low and sell high at the extremes or don’t trade at all. Selling above 71000 has been profitable since March.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
Metropolis Simple Price Action AnalysisOn this auspicious occasion, may lord Vigna Vinayaka remove all obstacles from your life and fill it with joy and success. Happy Ganesh Chaturthi! NSE:METROPOLIS could be the next good investment for this year. After a big downtrend, the price is able to create an Inverse Head and Shoulder. Thereafter, the neckline broke, a retest happened, and now it should move up. The first target could be 1791, the Second target will be 2570 and the final target is 3579. Approx. 139.14% Return on Investment plus Dividends. Disclaimer: Stock trading is inherently risky and you agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make, including but not limited to loss of capital. None of the stock trading calls made by Prosenjit should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. All comments and posts made by Prosenjit are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading.
NSE:METROPOLISLong
by priceissupreme
2024-06-05 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is much less euphoric than the others. Obviously trending up but still below 18700, which was big resistance last time. Bulls already had 3 pushes up inside the wedge and deep pull-backs in between, which shows selling pressure and no giving up by the bears. What are the odds, that dax follows the sp500 and nq pump today for a new ath? Low imo. If bulls had it in them, we would have seen it already. If we will melt-through 18700, I’m obviously wrong and you need to get long for the rocket ride to 19000. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 18400 - 18750 bull case: Bulls made 18500 resistance and had a strong rally to 18660 where the bear trend line ran through. Bulls quickly gave up after it stalled there and we got a tick-perfect retest of the opening price, which again, bulls bought aggressively to make a new high at 18678, which is 20 points below the open of the week and 10 below the open of the month. So huge resistance above and I would not bet on a breakout here, unless bulls just melt through with follow through. Bulls closed above the daily 20ema which helps their case. Invalidation is below 18550. bear case: Bears tried to get below 18530 multiple times in the EU session but failed and gave up for a 143 point rally. They see this bull wedge with 3 pushes up and want a reversal down and break below the wedge to 18450. R:R above 18650 is on the bear side and I will look for weakness against 18700. Invalidation is above 18710. short term: Neutral with slight bearish hopes. Bears need to keep it below 18700. If they fail, I will turn full bull for 19000 or higher. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Bar 28 + 33 were big bear bars with big tails below and both could not close below 18530. Bears were warned there and bulls had to get long latest at bar 39 which was the third consecutive bull bar and a close above the 15m 20ema. From there you could have drawn the lower bull trend line and get long on bar 57 again.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Anupam Rasayan Simple Price Action Analysis BullishNSE:ANURAS The Price is in an Uptrend making HHs and HLs on a Candlestick Chart. The expectation is that it will continue the existing Uptrend and hence will create a new HL and HH in the candlestick chart, this should take the price up to 1254.45 for now. therefore, a Cup like shape might form in this chart. We also do have a Trap Zone which might stop the current correction and help to create the HL in this chart. In this kind of chart, one must buy in tranches at every dip and hold for an approx. 28% to 31% Return on Investment. That is 279 to 297 points.
NSE:ANURASLong
by priceissupreme
2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. Here is my update from yesterday after hours with an update for short term, since we clearly broke outside of the channel. dax comment: Globex perfectly retested the breakout at 18630 but failed and the EU session just sold off big time to a lower low. It was a small break below the bear channel line but ultimately a bear trap and market then tested the upper channel line. Market closed at the lows and under the important price 18500. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 18400 - 18750 bull case: Bulls see the third push down inside the bear channel as a lower high and now want a trend reversal to test back to 18700. They have not been able to make higher highs this week and that show’s weakness. The big bull trend line on the daily chart is still alive and as long as they are near the daily 20ema and the big bull trend line, they will BTFD. Next target is break above the bear channel line around 18530. Invalidation is below 18380. bear case: Bears making lower highs and lower lows. They want the market to continue to go sideways to down to break below the big bull trend line on the daily tf. 18400 is still resistance and therefore we are in an descending triangle and bears have a low chance of breaking below. They need consecutive bear bars below 18400 to strengthen their case. Invalidation is above 18640. short term: Neutral kinda. We will probably hit 18600 soon, where bears decide if it stays resistance or we test 18700 again. If it stays resistance, we could test 18400 again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: APPLIES TO YESTERDAY - Bar 13 was the first strong bear bar, then bar 22 + 24 made new lows and stayed below the 15m 20ema. Enough reasons to go short and that was good for 200+ points. My room did not catch the first leg down because I was not at my desk but the second one for 100 points.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes could not stay at the highs and bears showed some strength by closing the gaps we left behind on Friday. SP500 and nasdaq rallied into the close on weak volume but bulls nevertheless also showed strength and for the day we mostly moved sideways. Both sides have reasonable buying/selling pressure and arguments on their side. That’s why we can expect more sideways price action. dax comment: Big Globex gap up, big down, big up, big down and then dax did not rally as hard as sp500 and nasdaq did. Market was formed a triangle on the 1h tf and we have tested Friday’s breakout price 18590. Since we are at the lower third of the range and it’s clearly trading range price action, r:r is on the bull side for at least 18700 again. So either the triangle plays out and we move more sideways or we break above for 18800 or higher. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 18400 - 18750 bull case: Bulls see the low today as a retest and market is now free to pump again. The gap to 18655 closing price will probably be closed overnight and then bulls will probably retest 18700 or higher next. Invalidation is below 18470. bear case: Bears surprised the bulls with 2 strong legs down today. The breakout above 18720 looked decent and trapped many bulls buying high in a trading range. Bears could not touch last week’s closing price 18531, which is a sign of weakness. They closed below the daily and the 1h ema, which strengthens their case but given that it’s a clear trading range, not many bears want to sell below 18600. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Up for 18700 and maybe higher. Play the range until clear breakout medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 28 + 54 one tick below bar 54. Was good for 160 points. My room caught a 100+ banger to the downside.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls rejected 76 area 4 times now. At some point one side will concede and we see a bigger move. Patience pays. Bulls want retest of the daily 20ema and bear channel next (78.8). Afterwards break above the bear channel. Bears had two clear pushes down and now a tripple bottom. I think they will give up and market trades back up again. But I wait for clear confirmation on this. comment: Here is also my comment from last week “Market in total balance 76 - 80. Buy low and sell high. Right now I prefer a spike below to around 75 which bulls gladly buy and we then trade back to 83 over the next weeks. Invalid below 74.” Nothing changed in Oil. Bulls got a very small spike above 80 which was rejected again and we are 77 again. Play the range until we get a breakout with follow through. One funny “coincidence” is that the 50% pull-back from the 2021 low to the 2022 high, is about 78.3 and now guess where the freaking 50% pb of this trading range is. Market is always giving some hints. Learn to spot them. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 76 - 80 bull case: Ascending triangle with around 4 highs and 4 lows. Market is in breakout mode and will probably test lower or higher prices next. I have absolutely no idea where we will break out first so just do the high probability thing here, buy low and sell high when you see good signal bars. Bulls see this as the lows of this trading range and want to reverse here for at least 80 again. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “Kinda neutral 76 - 80. Clear trading range with tails above and below. Market in balance. R:R here is with the bulls for test of daily 20ema at 78.6 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 77.72 and now we are at 76.99. High of the week was 80.62 and I said we will probably at least hit the daily ema again. That was a perfect outlook for at least 90 ticks but could have held til 80 or higher. 80 Would have been 228 ticks. Hope you made some. short term: R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle and now we test the lower trend line again. —unchanged current swing trade: None Update: removed bull flag/bear trend, whatever you want to call it. It’s the same and you trade it the same. Added expanding triangle trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btcGood Evening and I hope you are well. bitcoin Quote from last week: comment: Last weeks my line in the sand for bulls was around 67250, since market was rejected there 3 times. Bulls finally broke above it with force and bears quickly retested that price and it turned support, which gives the bulls some momentum. Market has not touched the daily 20ema for 11 days, which is very bullish. I have two paths forward Bitcoin could take imo. Either we are done with the latest small bull trend inside the bigger trading range and W5 ended at 71954 or W1 started around 61000 and the 71954 high was W3 and W5 could lead to a new ath. Answer should be given by Tuesday/Wednesday. Even if it makes a higher high, upside will probably be very limited and odds favor a continuation of the trading range. comment: Turns out my two-legged correction and 71954 being the high was pretty good and my C target was around 66600 and the low of the week was 66657. 67300 was resistance before and has turned support. We are right at the lower bull trend line and market will either break it on Monday or we will trade back up again. Right now it’s a very tight trading range and I would wait until we see bigger move with follow through. current market cycle: Tight trading range inside bigger trading range key levels: 66500 - 70000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range) bull case: 67600 is do or die for bulls. When this bull trend line breaks, their chances of another leg up are becoming very low. If market turns up again with momentum, we can see 70000 again and there market decides if it can try again of reaching higher prices. So far bulls were rejected 5 times above 70000. Invalidation is below 67000. bear case: Bears achieved their minimal target last week and rejected bulls again above 70000. Now they need to print lower lows to break the bull channel and make more bulls cover. I do think most bull stops will be below 66000 and they will probably not buy again until we hit 60000 or even 56000. Now comes the important part for the bears and I think Monday/Tuesday will set the direction of the next move. Just very slightly favoring the bears here but they need to get a good close below the daily ema which is directly under us at 67200. Invalidation is above 69000. short term: Neutral between 67000 - 69000 medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged chart update: Removed bull channel and bull waves, added descending triangle.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: 2350 is the big line in the sand for both sides. Bears did it big time by closing below the big bull trend line from March and consecutive daily closes below the 20ema. Problem for them is, 2300 - 2350 was huge support for 2 months now and I doubt bears can break it that easily. My bear channel from the weekly outlook is still valid though. current market cycle: tight trading range key levels: 2350 - 2380 bull case: Big support 2300-2350 and bulls need a daily close above the ema (2380) again. Right now they have not shown strength but neither have the bears or we would have traded lower already. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears see this as a small pull-back in the new bear trend (started with the double top on the daily chart) down to 2170-2200. They need much bigger selling pressure to get below 2300 though. Invalidation is above 2390. short term: Completely neutral inside given range. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long low of last week 2349 after bar 3 (signal bar) - bar 4 = entry bar
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-05-29 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. bitcoin comment: Let’s make this simple. Bullish above big red line around 70600 and uber bearish below 65000 and . Neutral in between. Not rocket science. But how good was my two legged correction from two days ago? Hope you made some. current market cycle: Trading Range key levels: 56000 - 74000 bull case: Bulls still dreaming of 100k while market is grinding lower. Below 65000 is 64000 next and if that small bull trend line does not hold, 60000 next. On the daily chart you could make an argument for a bigger two legged correction but bulls would need a really strong rally above 70000 again for that to be the case. Daily 20ema is right at 67000 and above that, bulls are still in control. I expect some more sideways movement between big red and big orange line. Invalidation is below 65000. bear case: Bears doing a decent job of rejecting everything above 70000 but they fail to push the market to lower lows. So naturally we are forming triangles and are in breakout mode over the next days. R:R here at 67300 is on the bull side, don’t get bearish at the lows in trading ranges. Invalidation is above 70600. short term: Sideways to up - should probably hit 70000 again unless bears make lower lows and we test 65000 next. But betting on the bear breakout below the wedge is low probability. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged trade of the day: Spike and channel bear day from before EU session. Tricky to trade because it had only one good spike and then just overlapping bars. Second best trade was the short bar 14 at the 1h 20ema.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2024-05-28 - a daily price action after hour update - oilcomment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that 76 was rejected often enough and bulls are favored to at least test the top of the channel around 78.8. They poked enough today and finally broke above. I expect 84 over the next 1-2 weeks. Measured move would bring us to 84.3. current market cycle: Bear trend broken - Still inside bigger triangle (form of trading range) key levels: 76 - 84 bull case: Got my clear confirmation today and will look for long entries over the next days. Bulls probably expect a pull-back to maybe the daily 20ema (79) to form a channel). 1h 20ema is currently holding nicely. Invalid below 78.4. bear case: Bears stepped aside since Friday US session and we are in a strong bull trend inside this bigger trading range. Bears will try to sell new highs for small scalps. Best they could hope for is moving sideways around 80. short term: Up - 84 expected over the next 1-2 weeks. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. trade of the day: Just buy anywhere. Look which 20ema is holding and buy near it.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
202422 - a weekly price action after hour update - bitcoinbitcoin Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls need strong close above 67000 for 70000 and probably retest of ath. They tried 4 times now and failed. Market is also a wedge top on a lower time frame. Bulls have no good arguments around 67000. comment: Last weeks my line in the sand for bulls was around 67250, since market was rejected there 3 times. Bulls finally broke above it with force and bears quickly retested that price and it turned support, which gives the bulls some momentum. Market has not touched the daily 20ema for 11 days, which is very bullish. I have two paths forward Bitcoin could take imo. Either we are done with the latest small bull trend inside the bigger trading range and W5 ended at 71954 or W1 started around 61000 and the 71954 high was W3 and W5 could lead to a new ath. Answer should be given by Tuesday/Wednesday. Even if it makes a higher high, upside will probably be very limited and odds favor a continuation of the trading range. current market cycle: Small bull trend (see channel) inside bigger trading range key levels: 56000 - 74000 bull case: If bulls want another leg up for the ath, market should not drop below 68000 again. If it does, today was a lower high double top and we will trade sideways or down to break the bull channel. If bulls keep it above, their next target is the high of last week at 71954 and above the obvious ath magnet at 73805. bear case: Bears see this rally done and the two legged correction missing the second leg down, which they want to get below 68000, break outside the bull channel and test the daily ema around 67500. I expect that Tuesday will give a decisive answer on this one. Right now I think the bears are slightly less favored. short term: Neutral between 68000 - 72000. Market needs to break this range for higher or lower prices. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged chart update: Adjusted bull channel, wave series and added possible two legged correction.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
#202422 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range. comment: Got exactly that second very weak leg down to the daily 20ema which is currently at 18650 and market could not close below it. Bulls are in full control and unless we see strong selling below the ema, odds favor another leg up to at least 19000 but I think another higher high is probable. Bears are not showing any strength and all important support prices and trend lines are holding. Close below 18400 would mean a daily close below ema and break of the bull trend line, that would change things for the bears and solidify this as a trading range. current market cycle: Bull trend until bears break 18400 (the big bull channel line) key levels: 18400 / 20000 bull case: This is a textbook two-legged (ABC) correction to the moving average and bulls got the most perfect signal bar to go long again on Friday. Bears have few arguments here until they break below 18500. Next for bulls is very likely a breakout of this bull flag for a retest of 19000 and then maybe higher. Since this pull-back was so weak, we could very well get another leg up. I have 19280 and 19650 as measured move targets. Invalid below 18400/18500. bear case: I said that last time we printed a new ath in April, we sold off for 1300 points in a very tight bear channel, which was basically an endless bull flag which ended with a climactic reversal at 17600. So how does it help with trading? We could go up and down from here? Yes. You wait. We are near the high of the bull flag and a clear breakout-retest-buy setup is probably around the corner. If bulls fail at 18800 again, good short to sell down inside a tight trading range back to around 18650. There is absolutely a small possibility that this just continues down in this tight bear channel like we did early April. outlook last week: “Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.” → Last Sunday we traded 18805 and now we are at 18765. Neutral I said, neutral it was. Levels given were spot on and market closed 40 points below last weeks close. Perfect week for mean reversion. short term: Well, we made it 40 points lower in a bull flag. Nothing of my premise changed, so I did not change my short term outlook. But I still believe we will see a bigger second leg down (first was early April down to 17600) to at least 17600 (again) over the next 2-4 weeks. Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5. —unchanged medium-long term: 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. current swing trade: No current position. 2 Swings for small profit last 7 trading days opened and closed. Chart update: Third push up (W5) is my preferred path for the next 2 weeks. Would update the chart, if bears brake 18500.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Good Evening and I hope you are well.gold futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320. comment: Market got it’s 2450 and some, formed a higher high double top and sold off for 127 points. We are right at the lower bull channel trend line and it’s a higher low. Bad place to trade or make predictions. I do think 2454 is a credible high for a decade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2290 - 2454 bull case: Bulls met all targets above imo and had their retest and the double top. They need to keep this above 2330 to not risk an accelerated selling. Above 2350 would be better to trade back inside the bull channel again. It’s still a small pull-back on the weekly chart and the weekly 20ema is around 2250, that’s far away. I expect bulls to get a pull-back here to at least the daily 20ema at 2360 or the breakout price 2380. bear case: Bears printed 2 big consecutive bear bars last week and the selling was strong enough to get a second leg. Measured move would bring us right to 2200, so naturally I drew a nice channel for you. R:R here is clearly on the short side. Bears need to keep it below 2380 and make lower lows below 2285. Will write an update on Gold in my Monday after hours. outlook last week: “Small pull-back before another test of 2448 (typo said 2348) or higher. Invalid below 2370.” → Last Sunday we traded 2417 and now we are at 2334. Thought small pull-back and then gave an update on Monday that I entered swing short at 2429 and gave that for free in my after hour update. That positions is now 950 ticks in profit. Hope you made some. short term: Sideways to up - Expecting a pull-back to 2360/2380 where the next move is decided. I prefer a second leg down, after the pull-back, which then transforms into a bear trend down to 2200. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: Still holding some shorts since 2429. SL is 2352. Chart update: Added new preferred bear channel
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202422 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. comment: So I posted my weekly chart, which is obviously not pretty and you should not trade on that. It’s to have a rough outlook and calculate targets on higher time frames. And currently I have two bullish third leg targets (bigger and smaller tf trends) at 5560. Those are rare but I would not bet my house on those, just because they are rare and it’s nice when a bigger and smaller trend align. Like stars, you know. Anyway. Still holding the possibility that bears surprise the bulls and drop hard below 5250 again to trap em. If bulls continue and melt above 5370, it’s reasonable that the next targets are the obvious bull trend line around 5500 and my calculated targets are around 5560. current market cycle: trading range until new ath with follow through or drop below 5000 key levels: 5250 - 5370 bull case: Bulls have not touched the daily 20ema for 13 trading days. They are in full control and have all the odds on their side. Bears need to break below the ema to change that. The sell-off on Thursday was strong enough to make at least some bulls doubt another leg up. Friday’s bar only tested the breakout level 5330 and was an inside bar. On weekly/monthly time frames it still looks as bullish as can be. However, I gave my reasoning above why I’d for more confirmation above 5330. If you buy here, you could be buying right at the top of a trading range we have been forming for 4 months. So, I’m very bullish if we print big bull bars and break above 5370 with follow through. Bulls invalidation price is around 5250 for me. bear case: Bears still have the argument that this was a higher high double top on low volume. If they can produce consecutive bear bars below 5250, it’s reasonable to assume that most bulls will cover longs and would look to buy much lower again, possibly around 5000. If bears fail to keep this below 5370, bulls will board the rocket to 5500 and higher. Keep in mind, we are above alomost all bull trend lines, far above the weekly ema, have not touched the daily ema in 13 days and if you still doubt this is as bullish as it get’s, look at weekly/monthly charts. Everyone knows this rally makes no sense from a valuations perspective but that does not matter. Price is truth. outlook last week: “Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through.” → Last Sunday we traded 5349 and now we are at 5321. We saw another smaller higher high 5368 and the low of the week was 5273. I’d say those targets were pretty freaking perfect. You are welcome. short term: Absolutely neutral until we see a breakout. Got a huge bear reversal on Thursday and a bull inside bar afterwards. I wait. Bullish above 5370 and bearish below 5270. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. current swing trade: Small short position from 5329, SL is 5345. Chart update: Please read comment section above
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment If bears can get follow through selling tomorrow and trap bulls below the breakout levels, we could see acceleration of this selling. If bulls manage to BTFD and make money with it again, this madness continues for new highs I guess. dax comment: Another break of the neckline but bears need follow through. There are at least 3 measured move targets to around 18400-18450 so this will be the magnet for tomorrow. Invalid above 18760. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18800 bull case: Bulls closed right at yesterdays close 18750 but US session closed below the neckline. Bulls are in deep trouble tomorrow if they can’t pump this above 18700 early again. Below 18600, 18400 will come fast. bear case: 18400. Invalid above 18760. No ifs buts whatnots here. Weekly close below 18400 and next week will be a bull slaughter. short term: Still Bearish - 18400ish was not hit today but if we hit it tomorrow, you read it here first. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: 18800 was clear resistance and shorting with a reasonable 20-30 point stop was an amazing trade today. Second best was the retest of the open for another short at the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds