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#202422 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. comment: So I posted my weekly chart, which is obviously not pretty and you should not trade on that. It’s to have a rough outlook and calculate targets on higher time frames. And currently I have two bullish third leg targets (bigger and smaller tf trends) at 5560. Those are rare but I would not bet my house on those, just because they are rare and it’s nice when a bigger and smaller trend align. Like stars, you know. Anyway. Still holding the possibility that bears surprise the bulls and drop hard below 5250 again to trap em. If bulls continue and melt above 5370, it’s reasonable that the next targets are the obvious bull trend line around 5500 and my calculated targets are around 5560. current market cycle: trading range until new ath with follow through or drop below 5000 key levels: 5250 - 5370 bull case: Bulls have not touched the daily 20ema for 13 trading days. They are in full control and have all the odds on their side. Bears need to break below the ema to change that. The sell-off on Thursday was strong enough to make at least some bulls doubt another leg up. Friday’s bar only tested the breakout level 5330 and was an inside bar. On weekly/monthly time frames it still looks as bullish as can be. However, I gave my reasoning above why I’d for more confirmation above 5330. If you buy here, you could be buying right at the top of a trading range we have been forming for 4 months. So, I’m very bullish if we print big bull bars and break above 5370 with follow through. Bulls invalidation price is around 5250 for me. bear case: Bears still have the argument that this was a higher high double top on low volume. If they can produce consecutive bear bars below 5250, it’s reasonable to assume that most bulls will cover longs and would look to buy much lower again, possibly around 5000. If bears fail to keep this below 5370, bulls will board the rocket to 5500 and higher. Keep in mind, we are above alomost all bull trend lines, far above the weekly ema, have not touched the daily ema in 13 days and if you still doubt this is as bullish as it get’s, look at weekly/monthly charts. Everyone knows this rally makes no sense from a valuations perspective but that does not matter. Price is truth. outlook last week: “Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through.” → Last Sunday we traded 5349 and now we are at 5321. We saw another smaller higher high 5368 and the low of the week was 5273. I’d say those targets were pretty freaking perfect. You are welcome. short term: Absolutely neutral until we see a breakout. Got a huge bear reversal on Thursday and a bull inside bar afterwards. I wait. Bullish above 5370 and bearish below 5270. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. current swing trade: Small short position from 5329, SL is 5345. Chart update: Please read comment section above
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment If bears can get follow through selling tomorrow and trap bulls below the breakout levels, we could see acceleration of this selling. If bulls manage to BTFD and make money with it again, this madness continues for new highs I guess. dax comment: Another break of the neckline but bears need follow through. There are at least 3 measured move targets to around 18400-18450 so this will be the magnet for tomorrow. Invalid above 18760. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18800 bull case: Bulls closed right at yesterdays close 18750 but US session closed below the neckline. Bulls are in deep trouble tomorrow if they can’t pump this above 18700 early again. Below 18600, 18400 will come fast. bear case: 18400. Invalid above 18760. No ifs buts whatnots here. Weekly close below 18400 and next week will be a bull slaughter. short term: Still Bearish - 18400ish was not hit today but if we hit it tomorrow, you read it here first. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: 18800 was clear resistance and shorting with a reasonable 20-30 point stop was an amazing trade today. Second best was the retest of the open for another short at the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Uber important trading day tomorrow. Bears need to bring their A game and trap bulls below 5300. If they manage to do so, we will close the week at the lows and get a huge sell signal going into next week. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5270 - 5368. Below 5270 is 5220 and then 5200. bull case: Globex printed 2 bear bars in 23 15m bars. Market then got a second leg up to a new ath 5368.25. The sell-off caught many bulls off guard and never let them out if they bought the highs. Bulls need to quickly trade back above 5300 and then 5320 or they risk that more bulls will exit their long positions going into the weekend. Invalid below 5260. bear case: 5260 was around my measured move target, which we will very likely hit tomorrow. The real question is then if bulls can make 5250-5260 resistance or will we crash to 5200 and into the weekend? My preferred path is drawn on the chart. Invalid above 5320 short term: Bearish. This weekly close will be important. The closer bears could get it to last weeks close 5216, the better for them, going into next week. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged trade of the day: Long since Globex on very strong buying to 5368 but market then went on and endless pullback and never let bulls out who bought high and that fueled the violent move down today.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
VEDL Simple Price Action AnalysisThis is a Simple Price Action Analysis of $NSE:VEDL. In NSE:VEDL Price has broken the downtrend and started a new Up-Trend by creating Higher Highs and Higher Lows. As a W-shaped recovery is forming, my expectation is Price will go up to 857.20/- (Based on Fibonacci calculations)-. This will be approx. 262.45% Return on Investment. We can Buy on every Dip and Hold for the First Target - 495/- and the Final Target - 857.20/- Disclaimer: Stock trading is inherently risky and you agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make, including but not limited to loss of capital or even provision of additional margin in futures trading. None of the stock trading calls made by Prosenjit should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. All comments and posts made by Prosenjit, and employees are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading.
NSE:VEDLLong
by priceissupreme
2024-05-22 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Another round of all time highs but bears printed some bigger bear bars on higher volume but in the overall picture it’s still a trading range around the all time highs for stock indexes. To have any meaning, bears would need strong follow through tomorrow and make meaningful lower lows and test the daily 20ema. Commodities actually can have a red day. What a time to be alive. Copper sold off for almost 6% and Gold printed a big bear bar too, exciting. NVIDIA: The stock that saves the market because AI is the reason no asset valuation metric is important anymore. Stock hit 997.9 after hours and my best guess is that most institutions will use this spike as a gift to take more profits. Will see about that in the next 4 weeks. Gold comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now. current market cycle: Small bear trend in bigger trading range 2300-2454 key levels: 2300 - 2450 bull case: Daily 20ema is at 2370, so bulls still closed above it and that means the market is still mostly bullish. Since we printed another ath on Monday, some pull-back was expected. Bulls would like to keep it above 2380 because it’s the most recent support under 2400. They want a big pull-back to make bears question the strength of the selling. Their first target is 2400 and then a breakout of the bear channel. Invalid below 2375. bear case: Bears got consecutive bear bars on the daily chart. They also see the formed channel and they want to keep the pull-back sideways and as neutral as it gets before a second leg down. My preferred target for the pull-back is at least 2400 inside the drawn channel. It could be that my channel is wrong and we see a faster and steeper drop to 2350 but i highly doubt that. Ultimately, bears want 2300 again soon. I watch the 15m and 1h 20ema closely for shorts. My swing position is very green. short term: Sideways to up. Had big down today, now a pull-back is expected. Please watch my chart. Invalid below 2372. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged current swing trade: Shorted 2429 on Tuesday - target 2375, sl 2390. Took 25% off at 2380. +480 so far. trade of the day: Strong selling with follow through below 2400, given that market could not trade above the 1h 20ema, should have been short since 2414 or once we broke 2400.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-05-21 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets went mostly flat today. Nasdaq printed a new ath on another low volume day. Unless markets strongly break above the highs or lows, very uneventful price action. Play the range until it clearly is not working anymore. SP500 printed a tripple top now and selling it again is a reasonable trade. dax comment: Bears making lower highs and lower lows but they are too weak to push the market below meaningful lower lows. Bulls are not too eager to print yet another ath and so we chop inside they given range. My head & should pattern lives as long as market stays below 18835, which is 15 points from when I wrote this, so low probability. For now we continue to oscillate around the 1h 20ema but I think the daily 20ema is close enough now for more algos to buy it, for another ATH or another melt-up to my weekly targets. current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through. key levels: 18700 - 19000 - below 18700 is 18400 next and above 18840 is 19000 or much much higher again bull case: Bulls kept it above 18700 which is still uber bullish. Next they will probably break above the bear trend line from ath and above 18840 for retest of the highs. Invalid below 18800. bear case: Still no gap close to 18850 and we are making lower highs and lower lows. Bears need to step in above 18800 to stay inside the drawn triangle. Bulls closed above the 15 and 1h 20ema, which is not good for the bears. They need strong momentum around EU open to break below again. Bears also have going for them, that US closed green today and retest the highs or made newer highs, while dax made lower highs and lower lows. Their next target below 18800 is 18700 and then the daily ema around 18650. Invalid above 18840. short term: Neutral 18700 - 18840. Head & Shoulders has still a very low chance of breaking down to around 18400 but don’t bet on then unless you see many strong consecutive bear bars tomorrow. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: Long from the EU open was ok, since bears could not close the gap to Friday. Bullish enough for target 18900ish.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-05-21 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. bitcoin comment: Bulls strongly broke above 67000 and 71954 was the high of the day. If you followed my bullish outlook in my weekly post, that trade was good for 2500+ points. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range key levels: 67000 - 74000 bull case: Bulls need to keep the pull-back shallow and above 68000 for chance of another strong leg up to ath or higher. Pay attention to the 4h 20ema, that’s where we got the second leg up today. Bull channel is working fine and 69000 could be a good place to go long again, once we touch the 4h ema again and get strong buying. Daily 20ema is 4000 points away, so very bullish price action. bear case: Not much to be honest. Technically still a lower high but bears would need much stronger selling for bulls to cover again. Right now it’s a pull-back in a bull-wedge that leads to 74000. They need to get back below 68000 first and break outside the bull wedge and channel. short term: Bull channel and wedge are perfectly intact, so higher prices are expected after the pull-back. Retest of 73800 or higher. Invalid below 67000. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged trade of the day: Many rejections at 71400 area and bar 14 was a perfect sell signal.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
2024-05-20 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2450 bull case: Bulls have all arguments on their side, as long as the bull trend lines are intact and they trade far above the daily 20ema. . They probably want another retest 2450 tomorrow and some higher to make the bears who sold 2450 today, cover. Obvious target above 2450 is 2500, invalid below 2400. bear case: Bears sold-off for 40 points from the highs but the follow through was not good enough. I think the lower high is reasonable here to expect a bigger second leg down to 2375. So right now they need to keep this a lower high and break the first bull trend line around 2420 for a test of 2400. Invalid above 2445. short term: Sideways, then down - Invalid above 2443 medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged current swing trade: Shorted 2429 for target 2375, sl 2443 trade of the day: Short 2450 - rejection was good enough and bears got follow through
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-05-20 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets moved mostly sideways today but commodities are on a tear, except for Oil. We can expect more volatility on the commodities side, since they are in play and everyone want’s some. Be humble to net get caught on the wrong side and have strong momentum on your side. For stock indexes I expect either another leg up which could start tomorrow or a bigger pull-back to the daily 20 ema. dax comment: Tight trading range 18800 - 18890. Absolutely neutral inside that range. Bulls only managed to get to around 50% pull-back from ath to 18700, which is weak but since bears could not even close the gap to Friday, that’s even more pathetic. Expecting more sideways until the triangle from the right shoulders breaks. current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through. key levels: 18700 - 19000 - below 18700 is 18400 next. bull case: Bulls keeping this at the highs and 300 points above the daily 20ema. As long as they keep this above 18700, they are in full control and higher highs are possible. For tomorrow I expect they will close the gap to 18850 and try higher again. The small bear trend line is their next resistance. bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb most recent low to high. Market formed a head & shoulders pattern which fails more than it breaks down. It’s a continuation pattern and bears do not have the odds on their side here. They need to close the gap to 18792 and then retest 18700. For now I can’t see the market breaking that level without any catalyst. short term: Bearish below 18880 and bullish above for test of 19000 or higher. Head & Shoulders break down confirmed with 15m close below 18700 for target 18400 or lower. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: Long from the EU open was ok, since bears could not close the gap to Friday. Bullish enough for target 18900ish.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc Good Morning and I hope you are well. bitcoin Quote from last week: bull case: We are at support until clearly broken. Bulls got a two legged correction which was very shallow and weak. They have no arguments on their side besides the previous resistance one. Best they can hope for is more sideways movement until the 1h 20ema comes closer - currently at 80.7. comment: None but will update once we break above or grind down again. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 56000 - 67000 bull case: Bulls need strong close above 67000 for 70000 and probably retest of ath. They tried 4 times now and failed. Market is also a wedge top on a lower time frame. Bulls have no good arguments around 67000. bear case: Bears want to sell the high of the trading range and test back down to 60000 or break below. Right now odds favor them instead of a bull breakout. Not rocket science when support and resistance is clear. short term: Bearish for at least 64000 but probably 60000 again. 67000 is my bullish line in the sand for 3 weeks now. I think odd’s favor more sideways inside given range. It’s absolutely not bullish that bulls could not get above 68000, 4 times now. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged Update: Unchanged
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Morning and I hope you are well. This is my weekly outlook, written yesterday evening. So market already made the new ath and now I wait to see if they want to squeeze higher or we hit a hard wall for big players to continue to unload. gold futures Quote from last week: bull case: 2285 was the low last Friday and this week held above it and my two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick for the A and the B leg and C was only short 20 points. So I gave you perfect 50 points up, 20 points down and another 50 points up. Hope you made some. Bulls are in clear control and until bears break strongly below 2300 again, we are on our way to retest 2448. comment: 3 clear pushes up and still not near 2450, which is not as bullish as it could be but it’s still only going up so naturally I look for longs. Market probably will not stop until we print 2445 or 2450 but the recent pull-backs went on long and deep enough for me to think the upside is probably limited. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2290 - 2450 bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320 bear case: All highs in this bull wedge were sold and we already had 3 clear pushes up. Bears will probably get a pull-back on Monday and then market has to decide if it want’s another try at 2450 or higher. First bear target is a retest of the breakout 2400 and then the 4h 20ema around 2390. outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged” → Last Sunday we traded 2375 and now we are at 2417. No opinion last week. short term: Small pull-back before another test of 2348 or higher. Invalid below 2370. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged Chart update: Removed bear flag. Added bull wedge.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxdax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bears gave up since Monday and we melted 800 points higher. I got 2 measured move targets above, 19280 and 19650. Technically we should see a pull-back first and depending on how deep it is, we can calculate new targets. I think next week everything will be determined by the PPI and CPI prints. If they come in low, I think it’s very likely that we will see the 20000. comment: Got that pull-back on Monday but weak and shallow. Bears tried again on Tuesday but bulls bought the ppi spike and rallied to a new ath 19006. Thursday was an surprisingly strong bear day and we sold off for 230 points and bulls could not get it much higher than 18800 on Friday. Both of my wave theses are still valid and Monday or Tuesday will determine the outcome. I won’t be a perma bear here and early again. Completely open to bulls melting up for my measured move targets or even 20000. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. If bulls keep going past 19000, obviously a bull trend but if they fail to print much higher than 19100, this was just a higher high in a trading range 17600 - 19000. key levels: 18400 / 20000 bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range. bear case: Last time we got here to a new ath, we pulled-back for 1300 points, very shortly after. Bears printed one good looking bearish engulfing candle on Thursday but for more bulls to begin taking profits, they need consecutive bear bars closing near the lows. If they can’t do that and market goes sideways, bulls will take it as a buy signal because after such a strong rally, odds favor another leg up. Right now market printed an expanding triangle and a two legged pullback near the bull trend line and ema. All of those patterns are buy signals. All of them can fail and we sell-off but from an odds perspective, bears are not favored until they do more. Invalidation for bears is above 18900ish. outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.” → Last Sunday we traded 18894 and now we are at 18805. Two-legged pull-back happened as laid out. short term: Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5. medium-long term: Time runs thin on my -20 to -30% correction target so I need to adjust the timeline. I’m confident we will print 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. —unchanged current swing trade: Shorted 18971 on 2024-05-16 and took profits on 2024-05-17. Will update this in the daily after hour updates from next week on. Chart update: Updated wave thesis slightly and removed the first two-legged correction because it does not add value from here on.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxdax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bears gave up since Monday and we melted 800 points higher. I got 2 measured move targets above, 19280 and 19650. Technically we should see a pull-back first and depending on how deep it is, we can calculate new targets. I think next week everything will be determined by the PPI and CPI prints. If they come in low, I think it’s very likely that we will see the 20000. comment: Got that pull-back on Monday but weak and shallow. Bears tried again on Tuesday but bulls bought the ppi spike and rallied to a new ath 19006. Thursday was an surprisingly strong bear day and we sold off for 230 points and bulls could not get it much higher than 18800 on Friday. Both of my wave theses are still valid and Monday or Tuesday will determine the outcome. I won’t be a perma bear here and early again. Completely open to bulls melting up for my measured move targets or even 20000. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. If bulls keep going past 19000, obviously a bull trend but if they fail to print much higher than 19100, this was just a higher high in a trading range 17600 - 19000. key levels: 18400 / 20000 bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range. bear case: Last time we got here to a new ath, we pulled-back for 1300 points, very shortly after. Bears printed one good looking bearish engulfing candle on Thursday but for more bulls to begin taking profits, they need consecutive bear bars closing near the lows. If they can’t do that and market goes sideways, bulls will take it as a buy signal because after such a strong rally, odds favor another leg up. Right now market printed an expanding triangle and a two legged pullback near the bull trend line and ema. All of those patterns are buy signals. All of them can fail and we sell-off but from an odds perspective, bears are not favored until they do more. Invalidation for bears is above 18900ish. outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.” → Last Sunday we traded 18894 and now we are at 18805. Two-legged pull-back happened as laid out. short term: Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5. medium-long term: Time runs thin on my -20 to -30% correction target so I need to adjust the timeline. I’m confident we will print 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. —unchanged current swing trade: Shorted 18971 on 2024-05-16 and took profits on 2024-05-17. Will update this in the daily after hour updates from next week on. Chart update: Updated wave thesis slightly and removed the first two-legged correction because it does not add value from here on.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 overall market comment This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset bubble in market history. If you don’t agree, it’s fine. I post enough links to support that thesis but you have to make up your own mind. My broader market view has not changed in the last weeks. I was early, yes but markets are forming tops and they always return to more reasonable valuation levels. Since we are at levels where you can’t find any metric that supports higher prices, I will only look for shorts for longer term trades. Does that mean the tops are in and we trade down from here on? Absolutely not. Markets can be irrational much longer than you can stay solvent. I will happily scalp long when markets move higher again. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: PPI surprised upwards, commodities on a tear again (except oil for now) and CPI came in line. Market used everything as an excuse to squeeze shorts more and print new ath’s. Soon bad news will get interpreted as bad news again, since markets will trade lower instead of higher, before and after releases. rate-cuts: No new opinion on this one. Your guess is as good as anyone’s. If you can name 2-3 highly respected finance people, who say inflation is defeated and we will see many rate cuts, please share them with me. I’m always curious of other opinions and try to see what they see. job market: My assumption is that over the next 4-8 weeks we will see a further decline on job metrics. For now no updates. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. comment: Very climactic rally and a pull-back is in order. We will probably retest the ath early next week and if bear’s do not step in, we could also just melt above 5350 for much higher prices. The depth of the pull-back (if it happens) will determine if we get another leg up or a bigger second leg down like the 370 point correction in April. Monday will be very interesting since opex is over and this rally looks, swims and quacks like short squeeze. current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 or breaks above 5350 key levels: 5000 - 5350 bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. Invalid below 5300. bear case: Bears see this as a climactic rally to retest the ath and want to sell-off now as we did the last time in late March. Market is trading very far above the daily 20ema and a 300 point gain without much of a pull-back, it’s overdue. Does that mean this was the top? No. It can go longer but talking probability-wise, a smaller second leg sideways to down is due. We had 3 clear pushes up with only very small side-ways corrections and this is climactic and unsustainable market behavior. outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.” → Last Sunday we traded 5246 and now we are at 5349. Pull-back was very weak and even then the day printed green. Bulls wanted the new ath and they got it after CPI numbers were in line. My W4 was a bit too deep but W5 was spot on, so I hope you made some. short term: Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500. current swing trade: Waiting for bears to show up since I’m only looking for longer term shorts up here. Chart update: Bullish targets are met and some correction is overdue.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Potential BTCUSD Reversal and Downtrend from ResistanceAnalysis Overview: In this analysis, we observe a potential reversal pattern for BTCUSD based on the 4-hour chart. The price is approaching a significant resistance zone, indicating a possible turning point. Key Points: Swing High & Lower High: BTCUSD has formed a recent swing high followed by a lower high, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. Resistance Zone: The price is nearing a critical resistance area marked by the PREVIOUS monthly ATH and the 4-hour FVG. Bearish Order Block: The red zone indicates a bearish order block, which could act as a strong resistance. Possible Scenarios: Rejection and Downtrend: If BTCUSD gets rejected at the resistance zone, we could see a decline towards the swing low and potentially further down. Break and Continuation: Conversely, a break above the resistance could invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest further bullish movement. Trade Idea: Short Entry: Around 70,000 USDT. Target: Initial target at 55,000 USDT. Stop Loss: Above the resistance at 72,000 USDT. Conclusion: This analysis highlights a potential short trade opportunity based on the identified resistance zone and bearish order block. The targets and stop loss levels are clearly stated to manage risk effectively. Please ensure to conduct your own research and consider the market conditions before taking any trade.
Short
by stavkog
2024-05-16 - a daily price action after hour update - dax/Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Bulls rallied to another ath where many of them took profits and bears began shorting after a lower high. The selling on bigger volume into the close is a sell signal going into tomorrow. Bulls have to break out of the formed bear channels to make bears doubt the highs might be in. Since tomorrow is Opex, everyone is max bullish and VIX is at the lows, we could be in for a surprise tomorrow. dax comment: Bear trend from before the open, after Globex made a new ath 19006. Since it’s the end of the week, the open, low and high prices of the week are important to watch. I always mark them on my charts when they occur. current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through, if we close this week below 18900, we got a higher high but inside a trading range and odds favor that we trade down to 18000 again. key levels: 18738 - 19006 bull case: Bulls began to take profits and today’s selling was without any stop which makes me believe that big institutions are off-loading their positions while they can. Low of the week was 18738 and that should be bulls last hope for tomorrow. If they can not hold that level, we probably trade down to 18600 and below that is 18400. bear case: Bears created a sell signal on the daily chart going into tomorrow. The weekly and monthly charts now show big tails above and if we can close below 18900, that would be a second rejection of that level on the weekly chart. Last time we made a new ath we sold off for 1280 points so that is my base assumption for the next weeks. short term: Bearish - But can see a retest of the highs if bulls break strongly above the 1h 20ema tomorrow. 18738 must hold or we could crash down. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: EU open could not get a close above the 15m 20ema and had many tails above bars. Could have sold anywhere with stop new ath.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
2024-05-15 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following. current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600). key levels: 5000 - 5337 bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290. bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345 short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: All bear trend lines clearly broken and higher prices are expected. My line in the sand for the bears is now 67250. If bulls can get above that, we see 70000 with very high probability next. I got measured move targets 70000 and 72000. current market cycle: Trading range but I’m open to a bull trend for retest ATH or higher. If we break 67250, bull trend is on. key levels: 56000 - 67250 bull case: Big bull bar on the daily chart. Buy signal for tomorrow. Bulls need to break above mentioned level for retest of 70000+. Not much more magic to it for now because the day was practically only bull bars on the 1h chart. Invalid below 64500. bear case: Bears need to get their shit together tomorrow. The market stay above the 15m 20ema almost the entire day. Their first target is a close below the ema and then stop higher prices and make the market two sided again. Invalid above 67250. short term: Can only say up until 67250 and see if bulls can make higher highs. If they can, bears will probably step aside until 70000. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged trade of the day: Insane bull day. Could have bought anywhere with reasonable stop and made moneh. chart update: The green wave thesis is only valid if bulls make higher highs above 67250. Until then this is a trading range.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
2024-05-14 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment US PPI surprised upwards and markets printed a crash bar, just so the bulls can do the reversal and squeeze all the shorts. Measured move targets from that spike lead to many logical resistance levels and after today there can be little doubt we won’t get there before US CPI is released. Odds that the CPI number can surprise upwards as well, went up significantly today and I think the odds that the markets will shake off the risk again, are low. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Not as strong as dax since we are still 270 points below the ath but odds are decent that we get there. Measured move target could be 18600 but it’s so close to 18708, that the ath will be the logical magnet. current market cycle: bull trend inside bigger trading range key levels: 18000 - 18708 bull case: Bulls got the obvious magnet above with the ath and since today had an amazing reversal, everyone expects the market to get there. Clear 2 pushes up so far and a third could bring us to 18600ish and then some. A minor pull-back is expect but not lower than 18330. If it would stay above 18360 would be more bullish. bear case: Bears got exactly to the 50% pull-back target from the ath to the last major low. Since the trap was so big, I expect bears to step aside enough for another big push up. Bears hope CPI comes in hot and I expect that even if market does rally, strong bears will probably hold onto shorts and add higher again at around 18700. If bears can push this below 18330 before cpi, this is something else and my thesis is wrong. short term: up - at least 18600 expected but decent chance for new ath above 18708. medium-long term: Bearish - 16500 over the next months and probably 15000 in 2024. trade of the day: The reversal was strong enough for a second leg and the pull-back bar 11+12 was also shallow so bar 13 war a decent signal bar and going long above would have been good for 76 points. Buying the reversal bar 8 was also reasonable because it was so strong but market stalled at the 1h 20ema so not as high probability as it could have been.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
a monthly price action after hour update - alibabaGood Morning and I hope you are well. A quick one on #baba Alibaba comment: Last time I wrote about Baba I said this "medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days" The stock found it's bottom and points upwards. Many tails around the 68/70 area below and big bull bars now appearing. The monthly 20ema will most likely be hit soon, where I expect a pull-back to then break above to the 100$ level again. China is printing again and from a technical perspective the stock has seen the worst days IMO. Can see 120 over the next 6-12 months again. Where you put your stop? Probably 80 or you want to hold for longer term and scale in lower. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 63 - 120
NYSE:BABALong
by priceactiontds
2024-05-13 - a daily price action after hour update - gold Good Evening, I hope you had a great weekend and you are well. overall market comment Very slow and range bound trading day in most markets, so only a short update today because my nothing in my weekly premise changed today. gold comment: Market is forming a triangle and since we are near the low, bulls are expected to buy it above 2312 to not make lower lows and trade it back up to around 2370ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2400 bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 2312 and trade back up inside the triangle for target 2370ish which is also today’s high and near the breakout level from one month ago. First target is a break of the 1h 20ema around 2350, small pullback to form a higher low and then a bull channel up to 2370. Pattern could probably play out until CPI release on Wednesday. bear case: If bears are strong, they would print below 2310 tomorrow to make many bulls doubt this will retest the highs above 2400 again. If they could manage that, their next target would be 2300 and there is bulls last hope for not a big bear trend down to 2050 over the next weeks. Invalid above 2355. short term: Sideways to up - Got the expected pull-back which was deeper than I thought. Now probably back up again. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. —unchanged trade of the day: The bear channel was pitch perfect and held all day. 15m or 1h 20ema were also a nice guides for initiating or adding to shorts.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btcGood Evening and I hope you are well. current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range key levels: 56000 - 65000 comment: My white circle played out exactly as I thought it would and bulls having a bad time trading above the daily 20ema which is bearish. Bulls will probably soon give up trying to keep this above 60000 and we will slice through to 50000. bull case: Bulls still trying but unless they can clearly trade strong above the daily ema with follow through, best they can hope for is to keep the market above 60000. bear case: Had to redraw the bear channel but bears need to get follow through below 60000 for bulls to give up. I think many stops will be around 59000 and we will just crash down to 50000 then. short term: Bearish if we stay below 65000 for target 50000 - invalid above 67000. I will not buy this, only looking to short. —unchanged medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged Update: Adjusted bear channel
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500overall market comment Markets clearly proved me wrong this week and right now the only question is how high this squeeze goes before we reverse. Dax already made a new ATH and it does not look like it’s going to stop anytime soon. For the sp500 & nasdaq markets tried multiple times on Friday to melt up on big volume but some bigger institutions stuffed the attempts. The patterns and volume profile looked like we could easily melt through the weekly highs and be on our way to retest the ath’s but huge selling came through and both markets are still printing lower highs. But given that we are in a clear uptrend and printed 7 consecutive daily bull bars for the sp500, bears have no solid arguments here. The high probability trades are on the long side until bears make lower lows again. Given that we will get many inflation data points Tuesday/Wednesday I think the big move will happen then. Feel free to join the gamblers and bet on hot or cold cpi numbers. I will wait for markets to show the way and join once the direction is obvious. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: Many indicators either again slightly ticking up or stalling instead of falling. Most expectation reports remain way above 2%. Next week we get new PPI and CPI data, perfect timing for markets to be in bubble territory for a pop. rate-cuts: Next week will be key for central bank policy. If PPI and CPI will surprise up again, those rate cuts remain a pipe dream and market is currently max risk on again, which could meet a big risk off event Tuesday/Wednesday. If the numbers surprise downward, expect new all time highs and probably more blow off tops. job market: The job market was nothing short of amazing since the covid lows and as of now there are enough key metrics pointing to a weakening. The job market usually starts to decline very slowly and gradually and then it accelerates and steepens. If the next readings turn positive again, I’m obviously wrong. sp500 e-mini futures current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 key levels: 5000 - 5150 comment: The sell-off on sp500 was too strong to be a pull-back in a bull rally. My base assumption is still that the bull trend is long gone and this is a trading range. We can make new ath and my assumption could still be valid from a technical perspective but the poke above ath would have to be a spike and reverse fast, otherwise we will probably continue much higher. bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and we are at the March resistance level around 5250. They want to trap late bulls above 5200 and sell off to the daily 20ema at 5165 before testing the lower bull trend line around 5150 where I expect buyers to step in and bears to take some profits. There market decides if it want’s to retest lows or highs. short term: I have no opinion on the markets until Tuesdays US CPI release. We could stall, rally or pull-back. I wait for good opportunities to scalp and do absolutely nothing until after CPI numbers and markets have shown exactly where they want to go. I think the play is rather simple. CPI in line or cold, we print new ath’s and it if comes hot, we get a big bear spike down, followed by a nice bear channel down to 5000 and probably lower. Anything deviating from that, would be a surprise imo. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. current swing trade: none but depending on how high we get before CPI numbers, I will probably initiate a small short position. Chart update: Erased previous bear channel and count in favor of the upward trend and an bearish alternative if CPI comes in hot.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds