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2024-05-14 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment US PPI surprised upwards and markets printed a crash bar, just so the bulls can do the reversal and squeeze all the shorts. Measured move targets from that spike lead to many logical resistance levels and after today there can be little doubt we won’t get there before US CPI is released. Odds that the CPI number can surprise upwards as well, went up significantly today and I think the odds that the markets will shake off the risk again, are low. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Not as strong as dax since we are still 270 points below the ath but odds are decent that we get there. Measured move target could be 18600 but it’s so close to 18708, that the ath will be the logical magnet. current market cycle: bull trend inside bigger trading range key levels: 18000 - 18708 bull case: Bulls got the obvious magnet above with the ath and since today had an amazing reversal, everyone expects the market to get there. Clear 2 pushes up so far and a third could bring us to 18600ish and then some. A minor pull-back is expect but not lower than 18330. If it would stay above 18360 would be more bullish. bear case: Bears got exactly to the 50% pull-back target from the ath to the last major low. Since the trap was so big, I expect bears to step aside enough for another big push up. Bears hope CPI comes in hot and I expect that even if market does rally, strong bears will probably hold onto shorts and add higher again at around 18700. If bears can push this below 18330 before cpi, this is something else and my thesis is wrong. short term: up - at least 18600 expected but decent chance for new ath above 18708. medium-long term: Bearish - 16500 over the next months and probably 15000 in 2024. trade of the day: The reversal was strong enough for a second leg and the pull-back bar 11+12 was also shallow so bar 13 war a decent signal bar and going long above would have been good for 76 points. Buying the reversal bar 8 was also reasonable because it was so strong but market stalled at the 1h 20ema so not as high probability as it could have been.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
a monthly price action after hour update - alibabaGood Morning and I hope you are well. A quick one on #baba Alibaba comment: Last time I wrote about Baba I said this "medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days" The stock found it's bottom and points upwards. Many tails around the 68/70 area below and big bull bars now appearing. The monthly 20ema will most likely be hit soon, where I expect a pull-back to then break above to the 100$ level again. China is printing again and from a technical perspective the stock has seen the worst days IMO. Can see 120 over the next 6-12 months again. Where you put your stop? Probably 80 or you want to hold for longer term and scale in lower. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 63 - 120
NYSE:BABALong
by priceactiontds
2024-05-13 - a daily price action after hour update - gold Good Evening, I hope you had a great weekend and you are well. overall market comment Very slow and range bound trading day in most markets, so only a short update today because my nothing in my weekly premise changed today. gold comment: Market is forming a triangle and since we are near the low, bulls are expected to buy it above 2312 to not make lower lows and trade it back up to around 2370ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2400 bull case: Bulls need to keep it above 2312 and trade back up inside the triangle for target 2370ish which is also today’s high and near the breakout level from one month ago. First target is a break of the 1h 20ema around 2350, small pullback to form a higher low and then a bull channel up to 2370. Pattern could probably play out until CPI release on Wednesday. bear case: If bears are strong, they would print below 2310 tomorrow to make many bulls doubt this will retest the highs above 2400 again. If they could manage that, their next target would be 2300 and there is bulls last hope for not a big bear trend down to 2050 over the next weeks. Invalid above 2355. short term: Sideways to up - Got the expected pull-back which was deeper than I thought. Now probably back up again. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. —unchanged trade of the day: The bear channel was pitch perfect and held all day. 15m or 1h 20ema were also a nice guides for initiating or adding to shorts.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btcGood Evening and I hope you are well. current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range key levels: 56000 - 65000 comment: My white circle played out exactly as I thought it would and bulls having a bad time trading above the daily 20ema which is bearish. Bulls will probably soon give up trying to keep this above 60000 and we will slice through to 50000. bull case: Bulls still trying but unless they can clearly trade strong above the daily ema with follow through, best they can hope for is to keep the market above 60000. bear case: Had to redraw the bear channel but bears need to get follow through below 60000 for bulls to give up. I think many stops will be around 59000 and we will just crash down to 50000 then. short term: Bearish if we stay below 65000 for target 50000 - invalid above 67000. I will not buy this, only looking to short. —unchanged medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged Update: Adjusted bear channel
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500overall market comment Markets clearly proved me wrong this week and right now the only question is how high this squeeze goes before we reverse. Dax already made a new ATH and it does not look like it’s going to stop anytime soon. For the sp500 & nasdaq markets tried multiple times on Friday to melt up on big volume but some bigger institutions stuffed the attempts. The patterns and volume profile looked like we could easily melt through the weekly highs and be on our way to retest the ath’s but huge selling came through and both markets are still printing lower highs. But given that we are in a clear uptrend and printed 7 consecutive daily bull bars for the sp500, bears have no solid arguments here. The high probability trades are on the long side until bears make lower lows again. Given that we will get many inflation data points Tuesday/Wednesday I think the big move will happen then. Feel free to join the gamblers and bet on hot or cold cpi numbers. I will wait for markets to show the way and join once the direction is obvious. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: Many indicators either again slightly ticking up or stalling instead of falling. Most expectation reports remain way above 2%. Next week we get new PPI and CPI data, perfect timing for markets to be in bubble territory for a pop. rate-cuts: Next week will be key for central bank policy. If PPI and CPI will surprise up again, those rate cuts remain a pipe dream and market is currently max risk on again, which could meet a big risk off event Tuesday/Wednesday. If the numbers surprise downward, expect new all time highs and probably more blow off tops. job market: The job market was nothing short of amazing since the covid lows and as of now there are enough key metrics pointing to a weakening. The job market usually starts to decline very slowly and gradually and then it accelerates and steepens. If the next readings turn positive again, I’m obviously wrong. sp500 e-mini futures current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 key levels: 5000 - 5150 comment: The sell-off on sp500 was too strong to be a pull-back in a bull rally. My base assumption is still that the bull trend is long gone and this is a trading range. We can make new ath and my assumption could still be valid from a technical perspective but the poke above ath would have to be a spike and reverse fast, otherwise we will probably continue much higher. bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and we are at the March resistance level around 5250. They want to trap late bulls above 5200 and sell off to the daily 20ema at 5165 before testing the lower bull trend line around 5150 where I expect buyers to step in and bears to take some profits. There market decides if it want’s to retest lows or highs. short term: I have no opinion on the markets until Tuesdays US CPI release. We could stall, rally or pull-back. I wait for good opportunities to scalp and do absolutely nothing until after CPI numbers and markets have shown exactly where they want to go. I think the play is rather simple. CPI in line or cold, we print new ath’s and it if comes hot, we get a big bear spike down, followed by a nice bear channel down to 5000 and probably lower. Anything deviating from that, would be a surprise imo. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. current swing trade: none but depending on how high we get before CPI numbers, I will probably initiate a small short position. Chart update: Erased previous bear channel and count in favor of the upward trend and an bearish alternative if CPI comes in hot.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-05-09 - a daily price action after hour update - gold Good Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: Strong buying today and bulls made a higher low and higher highs. Please have a look at my chart, which contains my next best guess on what could happen. 2375ish has enough targets to be a magnet above but I don’t think we can get there without a pull-back. A retest of 2448 is still very possible. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2400 bull case: The 4h tf looks easy but bears got deep pull-backs today. Bulls completed a 3 push pattern upwards and I expect a two-legged correction before we try higher again. Invalid below 2320. Targets above are 2360 and 2375ish above. bear case: It’s still inside a big trading range and market is two sided, despite the higher prices. Bears selling new highs and making money, so don’t just stop that. As long as bears keep this below 2365, it’s a lower high inside this large bull flag from the ath 2448. Bears targets are trading below 1h 20ema 2333 and then retest 2313 and then break out of the bull channel again. Invalid above 2380. short term: Sideways to up - expecting a smaller pull-back before another try to break 2370. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. trade of the day: Big breakout before US session above 2330, retest down to 2320 on smaller time frames and then a perfect buy signal after the retest. Breakout → Pull-back → long/short (continuation of breakout) are very strong and reliable patterns.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-05-08 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets went sideways again which means balance. Currently most indexes fight for the 1h 20ema and oscillate around it. Bears got a deep pull-back which probably ran many stops just to quickly trade back up again. We are high enough to qualify for a proper lower high so the minimum bullish targets are met imo. Does not mean we sell-off now. Have to see more price action and bears would need to make another lower low. Patience pays. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Same as for dax. Market closed around the 50% most recent low to high and we have to be patient for the next impulse to manifest. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18270 bull case: Bulls bought the low of the day which was a perfect double bottom with the open of the week at 18074. They barely managed to close above the 1h 20ema and they could not make a higher high today. So bulls are not as strong as they could be. On the daily chart it’s still only a minor pull-back and we have to see more price action tomorrow to determine if we get higher prices or a deeper pull-back to the daily 20ema around 17900. Next target for the bulls is a higher high above 18267. Invalid below 18070. bear case: Bears got a deep pull-back but no follow through. We are oscillating around the 1h 20ema at 18170 and that’s also exactly where we closed. Coincidences huh. Bears need a lower low below 18070 for more bulls to cover longs and think this might be a top and we trade back down. We also made a decent double top with yesterdays highs. On the daily chart you can draw a trend line from the ath to the recent highs and it’s reasonable to see this as resistance. short term: Sideways to up - Invalid below 18070. If we break 18300, we will most probably trade 18500 after. medium-long term: Bearish - 16500 over the next months and probably 15000 in 2024. trade of the day: Long from US open, bar 35 was too strong to not be long. Before that 18080 was clear resistance after the sell-off.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-05-07 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. Most indexes closed around their opening prices and that’s as neutral as it gets. Dax squeeze party goes hard again. I do believe with all my heart, buying long term shorts here at 18500 is an absolute no brainer of a trade. It’s also mathematically as sound as it gets. You decide what sounds better. Get an 2x or 3x dax short etf and bet grannies house to get 2 houses over the next 1-2 years. bitcoin comment: In my weekly outlook I gave a fractal thesis why we could turn around again due to the daily 20ema. Right now we got 2 bear bars on the daily chart but they look weak at best. Bears need a strong daily close below 62000 to convince me but as long as we don’t trade above 67000, bear thesis lives on. current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range key levels: 56000 - 67000 bull case: Bulls keeping this above 63000 and bears below 65000. Market just moves sideways, wait for clear impulse. bear case: It’s a trading range and I don’t need to pull stuff out of my ... to fill this page. Bears need prices below 63000 with follow through below 62000 for this to be on it’s way to 50000. short term: Sideways for W4 before W5 brings us down to around 50000. W4 should stay below 65000. -> Updated 63000 to 65000. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged trade of the day: Buy 63000 and scalp. Clear support and you have to take advantage of it until it clearly brakes.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2024-05-06 - a daily price action after hour update - dax overall market comment I was clearly wrong with the bearish reading and bulls got another strong day and closed at the highs. Strong buying signal going into tomorrow for at least a bit more upside but we got so far, there is no reason why can’t make another couple of points to retest the all time highs now, where I expect sellers to step up again and bulls to take profits. dax comment: Bear channel clearly broken, no ifs and buts anymore. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18836 bull case: Bulls got it. Measured move target from the big bull spike from EU open is around 18500. Bulls next target is 18400 and if bears do not come out guns blazing tomorrow, we will print 18500 with ease. Invalid below 18250. bear case: Bears nowhere to be seen and it’s unreasonable to think they will just show up tomorrow and begin a sell-off. The best they can hope for is to stop the rally at 18400 and transition into a trading range 18300 - 18400 until bulls begin to take profits again. They have a very slight chance of 18420 begin bigger resistance because that was last weeks high and there are many trapped bulls who could gladly sell out of their positions but that’s a weak argument at best. short term: Sideways to up medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. trade of the day: Just long from EU open. No bear bar in sight. Can close longs after bar 49 but you have to get long again on bar 55 because 52,53,54 showed a clear support level and 54 closed on it’s high and 55 was follow through which broke above the 15m 20ema and market never touched it again until US close.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
202419 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldgold futures Quote from last week: bear case: Given the bullish climactic nature of the last 2 months, some correction is on order but bears need follow through below 2300 for a retest of the breakout around 2250. On the daily chart, this too is a two legged correction but it’s looking much less bearish, because we are still around the lower bull wedge line. Monday or Tuesday will give a clear direction for the next move. Measured move from the most recent sell-off is exactly the low of W2 around 2180. current market cycle: Inclined to say trading range until clear break below 2290. key levels: 2290 - 2350 bull case: Bulls keeping this around the daily 20ema and continue to make 2290/2300 support. As long as it holds, we could see another push to retest the highs above 2400. Their next target is a close above the ema at 2330 and above that is 2360 as next resistance. Invalid below 2290. bear case: Price action last week could very well have been part of the W2 and W3 could start now but the more we go sideways the less influence the most recent sell-off has. outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range.” → Last Sunday we traded 2347 and now we are at 2308. Good read of the market. short term: Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. Chart update: Removed the two legged correction in favor of the bear thesis and added an alternative bullish correction upwards. Preferred path is the red one.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Green Arrow. Red Arrow. Which Will It Be?As I see it we now have two more likely options regarding price trajectory for Bitcoin. Let's first review what has occurred in the past few days. After 9 hits on our multi-year support, we finally broke WITH confirmation. That last part was important. I had stated that if we break and confirm, our first target down would become that first purple ascending trend line. Nailed it! Couldn't have been more precise. Yesterday, I then stated we should bounce and hit our heads on that 59.3k level. Boom. Done. Now, as I see it, Bitcoin has two most probable options to follow in terms of price. These options are represented by the green arrow and the red arrow. If we break back above that 59.3k level, the green arrow is in play and we'll likely travel sideways for a couple of weeks/months. This will be very boring for Bitcoin trades but it could indicate some relief for altcoins. At that point, I would expect quite a few of the best to spring to life and start pumping again. The red arrow is our other option, and honestly, this is currently the direction I am leaning toward until DXY, VIX, GLD, SPY, and NVDA tell me something different. DXY, VIX, and GLD continuing upwards would push stocks and SPY/NVDA down. BTC would likely follow. And though ALTS remains relatively stable at the moment, a move like this could bury some of the more risky. Keep those stops in place as it could get ugly. Thus far, my thesis on ALTS stands correct and our double-bottom has held and is holding for many. But, if that support breaks, ALTS would be in trouble. As always, I'll keep you up to date on the altcoin charts (often via the weekend update) here as well. Also, for my paid subscribers, know that we hit our level down and I have bought more of our best-performing altcoin. Check the trade tracker below to see the details.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
2024-05-01 - a daily price action after hour update - oil Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big selling today and melted through 80. My thesis over the past weeks was a correction to around 77. We are at 79 and the odds are very high that we get there. Might see another bounce first though. Unsure and we have to wait for tomorrow. current market cycle: most recent bull trend is over and we are correcting - probably trading range more than bear trend key levels: trading range 77 - 85 bull case: 3 pushes down on many higher tf charts and bulls are reasonable if they buy 79 for a bounce. At least a retest of 80 is logical. 80.50 should be max if bears are strong and then I suspect market to move more sideways before we try another sell off to 77. Invalid below 78.6. bear case: Bears outdid themselves today. I have drawn many dotted bear trend lines to visualize how many lower bear trend lines we broke below. If bears continue strongly below 78.6, this might be a bear trend rather a trading range and 77 might not hold for long either. But for now 77 is my main target. Sell-off today from 81 to 79.8 did not touch the 1m 20ema once. short term: Sideways to up is preferred over another sell climax. 79 Should be good support before we try again for 77. If we start strong selling again, fine, but initiating new shorts here at 79 is very bad r:r. Invalid below 78.6 and we might crash down again. medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged. trade of the day: Same play since Monday, short around the 1h 20ema. Works like a charm. Sell off today was very climactic though.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-04-30 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment End of month proved to be volatile and bears made clear that the last bounce was a lower high and we are on our way to new lows. My overall market thesis for the last 2 weeks was, that this bounce should be a W2 and we are in a new bear trend. Now bears need strong selling to break through the previous lows and make even the last bulls cover for their life’s. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Not as weak as dax but same play. Retest of 5000 is next and retest of 4963 highly likely if we break 5000. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5150 bull case: Here bulls could not touch 5150 again and gave up on US open with a big bear bar similar to EU open. Bulls tried to stay above 5125 but failed and then we just crashed down to 5065 and closed at the lows. Best bulls can hope for here is to find support around 5000. bear case: Huge day for the bears as in dax. Big round number as support coming up with 5000 and we will see how long it can hold. Can my bear trend thesis be wrong and 5000 won’t be broken and we range 5000-5150 for many weeks? Absolutely. I gave enough reasoning over the past weeks why I think we are in the new bear trend. Bears need to keep it below 5100. short term: Down to sideways - 5000 will probably be big support and we can move sideways first again medium-long term: Full bear below 5000. Lower high W2 is in, We are in W3 and my target for W5 is around 4600. trade of the day: Short, no ifs and buts. Just sell anywhere and have an appropriate stop.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202418 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btcGood Evening and I hope you are well. current market cycle: Trading Range or Bear Trend - it’s unclear right now key levels: 60000 - 67000 comment: Also another market right at the inflection point. If we break down from here, we are in my drawn W3 and if bulls manage to strongly break above 67000 again, we might see another 70000/71000 run. I do think bearish are favored here. bull case: Bulls still ecstatic and buying 60000 eagerly, once that stops, nothing can stop it until 50000. They need to keep it above 63500 for now, or we retest 60000 and maybe lower. If we turn here, 67000 is probably next. bear case: Bears need more selling pressure to retest 60000 again and then they will need much more force to break through it. They are below the daily 20ema (it’s around 65000 right now), which is good for them and they need to stay below or 67000 is next. I don’t think there are many big bitcoin bulls who do not have a stop below 60000 (probably more like 59000 but you get the importance of that number). So if we break below, it will probably flush to 50000/55000. short term: Slightly bearish if we grind lower and stay below 65000 for target 60000, where the big support is. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
Insights into Market Analysis: SPDR XLK Sector trend analysisThe upward trend of XLK experienced a halt in mid-April, marked by a price breakout below the swing low at $197.3. By retracing the price action from January 2022 to October 13, 2022, a potential pattern emerges, suggesting the formation of a 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern. XLK had been on an upward trajectory from October 2022 until April 2024, largely driven by the robust performance of the tech sector. However, with the application of sector rotation principles, it appears that XLK is exhibiting signs of technical weakness. Currently, other sectors such as XLE and XLU are demonstrating stronger performance compared to the overall market.
AMEX:XLKShort
by MESHANL
2024-04-25 - a daily price action after hour update - oil wti crude oil comment: Market is making marginally higher highs on the 1h tf but it’s a reasonable triangle we are in. I think it will chop some more inside before another breakout and I think that will be news related/event driven. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 80-86 but converges inside 82-84 bull case: Bull legs inside the range look stronger (1h tf or lower) but they are not gaining much higher prices for now. If they could break 84, we will almost certainly see 85 and maybe 87 again. bear case: On higher time frames bears are still in control below 84. We are at the triangle top and they want to trade back down here or they risk retest of 84/85. Market is wildly ranging with prominent tails above and below candles. Need very wide stops to trade this. short term: Sideways to down - Two legged correction as drawn in pink medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged trade of the day: Bulls turned 82.5 into support and the bar 12 was strong enough to go long above.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-04-24 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Bulls got excited again and calling for new all time highs after a 3 week selloff. Well today was the expected disappointment for the bulls, after euphoric bears got disappointed last week. That’s what markets do after wild moves. No one knows where it’s going and market is looking for the fair price (average price if you will). It’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement before another trend up or down (I do think bears are heavily favored). nasdaq e-mini futures comment: after hours puke is freaking amazing. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 17200 - 17800 bull case: Bulls tried their best today to keep this a trading range above 17600 but after hours is puking bad. 17800 was a reasonable spot for a pull back and also good to take profits or get rid of underwater longs from late bulls. They have to keep the market above 17500 or 17400 is probably next again. On the daily they could get a second leg up for another test of the daily 20ema around 17900, which then would also form a reasonably good looking bear channel. Interesting end of the week tomorrow and probably signal bar going into next week. bear case: When in doubt, zoom out. Daily chart tells the story better than lower time frames. I have drawn the wave thesis 2h before us close and boi did that hit. Painting says it better than my words can. I expect another retest of the lows, then another lower high to form a two legged pull back on the daily chart before we sell off for w3. short term: Sideways to down - Invalid above 17700. Targets below 17400 and then 17200 medium-long term: Same as sp500 - Clear start of the new bear trend. Will cover this with wave thesis and targets in weekly outlook. trade of the day: Big liquidity grap bar 34+35 got me stopped out but I’m stubborn and got back in. Caught the big move down. One had to get short latest below bar 39. Sorry for the chart picture but I have no idea why tradingview wont render it properly in the posted idea - so had to insert screenshot
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-04-23 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: Tough spot to trade imo. Different time frames tell different stories here. Daily had a big reversal and closed above the 20ema. 4h says it’s a small pullback from a potential W1 of a bear trend and on the 1h chart we could argue that market formed a nice double bottom and we trade back to the weekly high around 2400 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300-2400 bull case: Bulls bought the lows today and closed above the daily 20ema and the bull trend line from late 2024-02 starting below 2100. If they can generate follow through now and the 1h 20ema acts as resistance, their next targets are 2370ish (low of last week - if bears are strong, this will be resistance) and above is probably 2400 again. Given the wild moves in Gold over the last weeks, I try to stay really humble here and look for strong moves where I can join along. bear case: Bears had a strong sell off from 2433 to 2304. A pullback was expected but they need to step in again around 2350-2370 or we test 2400 again. I think there is a chance this sell off was a first leg of a bear trend but for that the pull back has to be somewhat shallow and mostly sideways to break out of the bull channel. Until that happens, longs are favored. short term: Neutral with slightly bullish tendency. Invalid below 2300. medium-long term: I talked about a equities off and commodities on cycle. Commodities support this thesis for now. Equities have to follow and than I’d like to hear from you when you read it here first in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: 2310 acted as support and was tested 3 times. Once market traded above the 15m 20ema again, one had to get long there.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-04-22 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Today’s bounce was expected and necessary for the bulls to stop the selling and the real question was not if we get a pull back but how high it will be. That will determine the new short-medium term targets. bitcoin comment: Most of fintwit will promise you this pullback is the start of the new bull run to 100k or 1mio. If you believe that, I can’t help you. Bulls holding this longer above 60000 than I would have imagined but it does not change my outlook. The next bear leg will start soon and I think once we have a daily close below 60000, this is over and the guys calling for 100k are the ones who will see all their profits erased and tell you to sell your house to buy more at 40k. current market cycle: trading range but start of the bear trend is upon us key levels: 60000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls buying everything around 60000 and keeping this afloat. They want follow through tomorrow and another daily close above the 20ema around 66000. If they manage that and overall market conditions stay bullish enough for a couple of days, we could see 70000 again but I highly doubt higher prices. bear case: Bears did a good job a keeping this a trading range at the recent lows but bulls are trying to break above. Market needs to trade below the daily 20ema again for more trading range price action, otherwise we will see higher prices. Bear case is that 70000 was heavily rejected 3 times now and overall market conditions are worsening. If most indexes drop, so will this ponzi scheme, make no mistake about it. We have enough data to know this. short term: Bearish under 68000 for 60000 and Bullish above 68000 to 70000 medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
2
#202417 - a weekly #priceaction market recap and outlook - daxDax Quote from last week: bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected. current market cycle: Bear trend - all bull trend lines but the one from the Covid lows are broken and the only thing right now keeping this from a panic sell, is the weekly 20ema around 17500. Could it also be the daily 50ema (around 17925)? Sure, who knows for certain? Both are reasonable arguments. key levels: strong support 17900/18000 - 18400 (unsure where resistance will be, we have to find out. 18400 is my next best guess but could very will be 18600) bull case: Bulls bought aggressively at the 2024-03 low, which was their last hope to stop the flush to 17000/17150, which produced a big bullish reversal bar on the daily chart. They desperately need follow through above 18000 on Monday. bear case: My bearish wave thesis was drawn 2 weeks ago and right now I’m unsure about end of the bigger W1 where W5 should lead to below 17200. So case a is, the darker red I to V wave, which would result in a bigger bounce now for II, to form a broader bear channel. Case b would be to continue inside this very narrow bear channel with very small intraday pullbacks that get sold immediately, very much analog to the bull trend we had from mid 2024-02. Case a is much more preferred because it’s low probability to not get a bigger bounce around big support areas. If bears manage to print below 17600 again, this might just go straight down to 17000/17200. Bears doing an amazing job of continuously selling the 4h 20ema, the 9th time now since the ath. That is unusual to say the least. outlook last week: “Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800...." → Last Sunday we traded 18082 and now we are at 17925. Market sold off hard to 17607 but bulls reversed it. So outlook was meh, given that we just moved sideways on the week. short term: Absolutely neutral as of this posting. Tough spot right here where you should not engage new trades until we see more price action. Market is in balance around 17900-18000 area until one side clearly break out of it. Below 17900 is retest of 17600 and below that is probably 17200. Above 18000 is the upper bear channel line 18100ish and above that I’m unsure. Could be 18200/18400. I wait. medium-long term: Third red week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10. We need to see a proper bounce to calculate new targets or bears just grind this down inside the narrow bear channel. I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part Chart update: Chart updated with my preferred wave thesis I to V.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action after hour update - tesla #5Good Evening and I hope you are well. Let's review my short term outlook from tesla #4 2024-04-03.. "short term: 150-160, earnings in 2 weeks should bring us below 150 and on our way to 100-110." Earnings being released on Tuesday after US close. I have absolutely not edited anything from the drawn wave thesis 2 months ago. This stock is in a strong bear trend for 2 years and not a single soul will know where the bottom is. I stand by my outragous forecasts that Cathy will retire and Elon will scramble to come up with new equity to finance twitter because Tesla stock has lost more than 60% of it's value from the all time high. bull case: Bulls tried for 4 months now to keep this above 180, then 160 and now 150. This will probably free fall now to 100. Bulls praying for a miracle earnings report. bear case: 150 broken with force. Nothing stopping this to 100. Could earnings on Tuesday surprise upwards? I am not allowed to swear on tradingview but there is a song from Snoop with a perfect title. It's from 1999, ends with please and featured Xzibit. short term: 100. medium-long term: Bulls better pray for 100 to hold, otherwise it's 65 next.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds