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202419 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldgold futures Quote from last week: bear case: Given the bullish climactic nature of the last 2 months, some correction is on order but bears need follow through below 2300 for a retest of the breakout around 2250. On the daily chart, this too is a two legged correction but it’s looking much less bearish, because we are still around the lower bull wedge line. Monday or Tuesday will give a clear direction for the next move. Measured move from the most recent sell-off is exactly the low of W2 around 2180. current market cycle: Inclined to say trading range until clear break below 2290. key levels: 2290 - 2350 bull case: Bulls keeping this around the daily 20ema and continue to make 2290/2300 support. As long as it holds, we could see another push to retest the highs above 2400. Their next target is a close above the ema at 2330 and above that is 2360 as next resistance. Invalid below 2290. bear case: Price action last week could very well have been part of the W2 and W3 could start now but the more we go sideways the less influence the most recent sell-off has. outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range.” → Last Sunday we traded 2347 and now we are at 2308. Good read of the market. short term: Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. Chart update: Removed the two legged correction in favor of the bear thesis and added an alternative bullish correction upwards. Preferred path is the red one.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Green Arrow. Red Arrow. Which Will It Be?As I see it we now have two more likely options regarding price trajectory for Bitcoin. Let's first review what has occurred in the past few days. After 9 hits on our multi-year support, we finally broke WITH confirmation. That last part was important. I had stated that if we break and confirm, our first target down would become that first purple ascending trend line. Nailed it! Couldn't have been more precise. Yesterday, I then stated we should bounce and hit our heads on that 59.3k level. Boom. Done. Now, as I see it, Bitcoin has two most probable options to follow in terms of price. These options are represented by the green arrow and the red arrow. If we break back above that 59.3k level, the green arrow is in play and we'll likely travel sideways for a couple of weeks/months. This will be very boring for Bitcoin trades but it could indicate some relief for altcoins. At that point, I would expect quite a few of the best to spring to life and start pumping again. The red arrow is our other option, and honestly, this is currently the direction I am leaning toward until DXY, VIX, GLD, SPY, and NVDA tell me something different. DXY, VIX, and GLD continuing upwards would push stocks and SPY/NVDA down. BTC would likely follow. And though ALTS remains relatively stable at the moment, a move like this could bury some of the more risky. Keep those stops in place as it could get ugly. Thus far, my thesis on ALTS stands correct and our double-bottom has held and is holding for many. But, if that support breaks, ALTS would be in trouble. As always, I'll keep you up to date on the altcoin charts (often via the weekend update) here as well. Also, for my paid subscribers, know that we hit our level down and I have bought more of our best-performing altcoin. Check the trade tracker below to see the details.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
2024-05-01 - a daily price action after hour update - oil Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big selling today and melted through 80. My thesis over the past weeks was a correction to around 77. We are at 79 and the odds are very high that we get there. Might see another bounce first though. Unsure and we have to wait for tomorrow. current market cycle: most recent bull trend is over and we are correcting - probably trading range more than bear trend key levels: trading range 77 - 85 bull case: 3 pushes down on many higher tf charts and bulls are reasonable if they buy 79 for a bounce. At least a retest of 80 is logical. 80.50 should be max if bears are strong and then I suspect market to move more sideways before we try another sell off to 77. Invalid below 78.6. bear case: Bears outdid themselves today. I have drawn many dotted bear trend lines to visualize how many lower bear trend lines we broke below. If bears continue strongly below 78.6, this might be a bear trend rather a trading range and 77 might not hold for long either. But for now 77 is my main target. Sell-off today from 81 to 79.8 did not touch the 1m 20ema once. short term: Sideways to up is preferred over another sell climax. 79 Should be good support before we try again for 77. If we start strong selling again, fine, but initiating new shorts here at 79 is very bad r:r. Invalid below 78.6 and we might crash down again. medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged. trade of the day: Same play since Monday, short around the 1h 20ema. Works like a charm. Sell off today was very climactic though.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-04-30 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment End of month proved to be volatile and bears made clear that the last bounce was a lower high and we are on our way to new lows. My overall market thesis for the last 2 weeks was, that this bounce should be a W2 and we are in a new bear trend. Now bears need strong selling to break through the previous lows and make even the last bulls cover for their life’s. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Not as weak as dax but same play. Retest of 5000 is next and retest of 4963 highly likely if we break 5000. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5150 bull case: Here bulls could not touch 5150 again and gave up on US open with a big bear bar similar to EU open. Bulls tried to stay above 5125 but failed and then we just crashed down to 5065 and closed at the lows. Best bulls can hope for here is to find support around 5000. bear case: Huge day for the bears as in dax. Big round number as support coming up with 5000 and we will see how long it can hold. Can my bear trend thesis be wrong and 5000 won’t be broken and we range 5000-5150 for many weeks? Absolutely. I gave enough reasoning over the past weeks why I think we are in the new bear trend. Bears need to keep it below 5100. short term: Down to sideways - 5000 will probably be big support and we can move sideways first again medium-long term: Full bear below 5000. Lower high W2 is in, We are in W3 and my target for W5 is around 4600. trade of the day: Short, no ifs and buts. Just sell anywhere and have an appropriate stop.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202418 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btcGood Evening and I hope you are well. current market cycle: Trading Range or Bear Trend - it’s unclear right now key levels: 60000 - 67000 comment: Also another market right at the inflection point. If we break down from here, we are in my drawn W3 and if bulls manage to strongly break above 67000 again, we might see another 70000/71000 run. I do think bearish are favored here. bull case: Bulls still ecstatic and buying 60000 eagerly, once that stops, nothing can stop it until 50000. They need to keep it above 63500 for now, or we retest 60000 and maybe lower. If we turn here, 67000 is probably next. bear case: Bears need more selling pressure to retest 60000 again and then they will need much more force to break through it. They are below the daily 20ema (it’s around 65000 right now), which is good for them and they need to stay below or 67000 is next. I don’t think there are many big bitcoin bulls who do not have a stop below 60000 (probably more like 59000 but you get the importance of that number). So if we break below, it will probably flush to 50000/55000. short term: Slightly bearish if we grind lower and stay below 65000 for target 60000, where the big support is. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
Insights into Market Analysis: SPDR XLK Sector trend analysisThe upward trend of XLK experienced a halt in mid-April, marked by a price breakout below the swing low at $197.3. By retracing the price action from January 2022 to October 13, 2022, a potential pattern emerges, suggesting the formation of a 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern. XLK had been on an upward trajectory from October 2022 until April 2024, largely driven by the robust performance of the tech sector. However, with the application of sector rotation principles, it appears that XLK is exhibiting signs of technical weakness. Currently, other sectors such as XLE and XLU are demonstrating stronger performance compared to the overall market.
AMEX:XLKShort
by MESHANL
2024-04-25 - a daily price action after hour update - oil wti crude oil comment: Market is making marginally higher highs on the 1h tf but it’s a reasonable triangle we are in. I think it will chop some more inside before another breakout and I think that will be news related/event driven. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 80-86 but converges inside 82-84 bull case: Bull legs inside the range look stronger (1h tf or lower) but they are not gaining much higher prices for now. If they could break 84, we will almost certainly see 85 and maybe 87 again. bear case: On higher time frames bears are still in control below 84. We are at the triangle top and they want to trade back down here or they risk retest of 84/85. Market is wildly ranging with prominent tails above and below candles. Need very wide stops to trade this. short term: Sideways to down - Two legged correction as drawn in pink medium-long term: Will update this once equities show more weakness. My thesis for many months now is, that we will see a big shift - Equities off - Commodities on. —unchanged trade of the day: Bulls turned 82.5 into support and the bar 12 was strong enough to go long above.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-04-24 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Bulls got excited again and calling for new all time highs after a 3 week selloff. Well today was the expected disappointment for the bulls, after euphoric bears got disappointed last week. That’s what markets do after wild moves. No one knows where it’s going and market is looking for the fair price (average price if you will). It’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement before another trend up or down (I do think bears are heavily favored). nasdaq e-mini futures comment: after hours puke is freaking amazing. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 17200 - 17800 bull case: Bulls tried their best today to keep this a trading range above 17600 but after hours is puking bad. 17800 was a reasonable spot for a pull back and also good to take profits or get rid of underwater longs from late bulls. They have to keep the market above 17500 or 17400 is probably next again. On the daily they could get a second leg up for another test of the daily 20ema around 17900, which then would also form a reasonably good looking bear channel. Interesting end of the week tomorrow and probably signal bar going into next week. bear case: When in doubt, zoom out. Daily chart tells the story better than lower time frames. I have drawn the wave thesis 2h before us close and boi did that hit. Painting says it better than my words can. I expect another retest of the lows, then another lower high to form a two legged pull back on the daily chart before we sell off for w3. short term: Sideways to down - Invalid above 17700. Targets below 17400 and then 17200 medium-long term: Same as sp500 - Clear start of the new bear trend. Will cover this with wave thesis and targets in weekly outlook. trade of the day: Big liquidity grap bar 34+35 got me stopped out but I’m stubborn and got back in. Caught the big move down. One had to get short latest below bar 39. Sorry for the chart picture but I have no idea why tradingview wont render it properly in the posted idea - so had to insert screenshot
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-04-23 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: Tough spot to trade imo. Different time frames tell different stories here. Daily had a big reversal and closed above the 20ema. 4h says it’s a small pullback from a potential W1 of a bear trend and on the 1h chart we could argue that market formed a nice double bottom and we trade back to the weekly high around 2400 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300-2400 bull case: Bulls bought the lows today and closed above the daily 20ema and the bull trend line from late 2024-02 starting below 2100. If they can generate follow through now and the 1h 20ema acts as resistance, their next targets are 2370ish (low of last week - if bears are strong, this will be resistance) and above is probably 2400 again. Given the wild moves in Gold over the last weeks, I try to stay really humble here and look for strong moves where I can join along. bear case: Bears had a strong sell off from 2433 to 2304. A pullback was expected but they need to step in again around 2350-2370 or we test 2400 again. I think there is a chance this sell off was a first leg of a bear trend but for that the pull back has to be somewhat shallow and mostly sideways to break out of the bull channel. Until that happens, longs are favored. short term: Neutral with slightly bullish tendency. Invalid below 2300. medium-long term: I talked about a equities off and commodities on cycle. Commodities support this thesis for now. Equities have to follow and than I’d like to hear from you when you read it here first in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: 2310 acted as support and was tested 3 times. Once market traded above the 15m 20ema again, one had to get long there.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-04-22 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Today’s bounce was expected and necessary for the bulls to stop the selling and the real question was not if we get a pull back but how high it will be. That will determine the new short-medium term targets. bitcoin comment: Most of fintwit will promise you this pullback is the start of the new bull run to 100k or 1mio. If you believe that, I can’t help you. Bulls holding this longer above 60000 than I would have imagined but it does not change my outlook. The next bear leg will start soon and I think once we have a daily close below 60000, this is over and the guys calling for 100k are the ones who will see all their profits erased and tell you to sell your house to buy more at 40k. current market cycle: trading range but start of the bear trend is upon us key levels: 60000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls buying everything around 60000 and keeping this afloat. They want follow through tomorrow and another daily close above the 20ema around 66000. If they manage that and overall market conditions stay bullish enough for a couple of days, we could see 70000 again but I highly doubt higher prices. bear case: Bears did a good job a keeping this a trading range at the recent lows but bulls are trying to break above. Market needs to trade below the daily 20ema again for more trading range price action, otherwise we will see higher prices. Bear case is that 70000 was heavily rejected 3 times now and overall market conditions are worsening. If most indexes drop, so will this ponzi scheme, make no mistake about it. We have enough data to know this. short term: Bearish under 68000 for 60000 and Bullish above 68000 to 70000 medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
2
#202417 - a weekly #priceaction market recap and outlook - daxDax Quote from last week: bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected. current market cycle: Bear trend - all bull trend lines but the one from the Covid lows are broken and the only thing right now keeping this from a panic sell, is the weekly 20ema around 17500. Could it also be the daily 50ema (around 17925)? Sure, who knows for certain? Both are reasonable arguments. key levels: strong support 17900/18000 - 18400 (unsure where resistance will be, we have to find out. 18400 is my next best guess but could very will be 18600) bull case: Bulls bought aggressively at the 2024-03 low, which was their last hope to stop the flush to 17000/17150, which produced a big bullish reversal bar on the daily chart. They desperately need follow through above 18000 on Monday. bear case: My bearish wave thesis was drawn 2 weeks ago and right now I’m unsure about end of the bigger W1 where W5 should lead to below 17200. So case a is, the darker red I to V wave, which would result in a bigger bounce now for II, to form a broader bear channel. Case b would be to continue inside this very narrow bear channel with very small intraday pullbacks that get sold immediately, very much analog to the bull trend we had from mid 2024-02. Case a is much more preferred because it’s low probability to not get a bigger bounce around big support areas. If bears manage to print below 17600 again, this might just go straight down to 17000/17200. Bears doing an amazing job of continuously selling the 4h 20ema, the 9th time now since the ath. That is unusual to say the least. outlook last week: “Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800...." → Last Sunday we traded 18082 and now we are at 17925. Market sold off hard to 17607 but bulls reversed it. So outlook was meh, given that we just moved sideways on the week. short term: Absolutely neutral as of this posting. Tough spot right here where you should not engage new trades until we see more price action. Market is in balance around 17900-18000 area until one side clearly break out of it. Below 17900 is retest of 17600 and below that is probably 17200. Above 18000 is the upper bear channel line 18100ish and above that I’m unsure. Could be 18200/18400. I wait. medium-long term: Third red week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10. We need to see a proper bounce to calculate new targets or bears just grind this down inside the narrow bear channel. I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part Chart update: Chart updated with my preferred wave thesis I to V.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action after hour update - tesla #5Good Evening and I hope you are well. Let's review my short term outlook from tesla #4 2024-04-03.. "short term: 150-160, earnings in 2 weeks should bring us below 150 and on our way to 100-110." Earnings being released on Tuesday after US close. I have absolutely not edited anything from the drawn wave thesis 2 months ago. This stock is in a strong bear trend for 2 years and not a single soul will know where the bottom is. I stand by my outragous forecasts that Cathy will retire and Elon will scramble to come up with new equity to finance twitter because Tesla stock has lost more than 60% of it's value from the all time high. bull case: Bulls tried for 4 months now to keep this above 180, then 160 and now 150. This will probably free fall now to 100. Bulls praying for a miracle earnings report. bear case: 150 broken with force. Nothing stopping this to 100. Could earnings on Tuesday surprise upwards? I am not allowed to swear on tradingview but there is a song from Snoop with a perfect title. It's from 1999, ends with please and featured Xzibit. short term: 100. medium-long term: Bulls better pray for 100 to hold, otherwise it's 65 next.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds
2024-04-16 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. Today nothing moved the markets and I was humble enough to book some early profits and scalps before US open. I left it at that and am very happy with that decision. Days like this are the death for inexperienced traders, so if you lost money today, train on a paper account when market is this choppy. Leave your ego at the door if you think paper trading is above you. Base thesis still stands, markets would have traded lower by now if bears could have done so. Market is looking for a reason to bounce and retest the highs or print a lower high. Obviously invalid if we see meaningful lower prices with follow through. dax bull case: Atrocious price action but bulls kept it above 18000, which was the bare minimum they had to do today. Avg daily range is somewhat above 180 over the last days and today was around 150 where we closed 70 points below the open. Tight trading range will a lot of fades. Did not help anyone to establish their bias. Bulls want to retest the open of the week 18200 and see if they can trade higher again. Daily 20ema is 18250 so this will be a magnet. bear case: I have zero interest of being a bear at 18000 for now. Bears showed unbelievable strength on their first sign of life since late 2023-12 and this tight channel down is too tight for my comfort. Chances that we break below are very slim. That being said, bear channel is alive and well and the bull trend line from 2023-10 is broken, had it’s retest and is now gone for good. If you are still holding your longs because you have a “feeling” market will turn, I probably can’t help you. I won’t turn full bear until we see a better lower high or retest of the ath before we can form a proper broader channel downwards. short term: Sideways to up - 10 Days where rips were sold and new lows were bought. Stick to what has worked until it clearly does not anymore. medium-long term: After 10 consecutive green weeks, we finally printed two red ones. Bears are drooling. My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged trade of the day: If you are not comfortable with tight trading range price action, train with a demo account until you are. Think of your training as athletes do.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-04-15 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. bull case: 50 points down and 60 points up. Unreal price action for this Market. Bulls bought where they had to, to stay inside the broad bull channel or expanding triangle. Call it what you want, you trade it the same. Since Fridays sell off was so extreme, I rather be humble as a bull and take my profits on weakness. Retest of 2450 or higher depends on the news. Sad but that just so. Big macro risk is just that. bear case: Bears tried to get below 2360 but failed miserably. Now the best they can hope for is weakness around 2400 and market stays under but hard to imagine. When the buyers come around again like Friday and today since bar 11, bears just move aside and this melts. Odds clearly favor the bulls. short term: Sideways to up - Invalid below 2340. Expect 2420 or higher tomorrow, unless big sellers appear again. Perfect momentum market currently. medium-long term: It’s fair to say that we are living through a macro event, which I have been talking about for many weeks now, not knowing anything about the middle east. Markets do what they do, before the fitting news comes around. Someone always knows. Right now this is going up and only up. Do I want to buy long term Gold longs? Hell no. Only short term trades for me here. Since you asked… I can not dream up reasons why Gold would trade above 2400 a year from now. But I sure can be wrong about that. trade of the day: Follow the momentum.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202416 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Last week was expected until Wednesday, as markets mostly moved sideways. Two weeks ago I concluded the most recent bull trends had their trend lines broken and the daily 20emas also. Wednesday’s CPI print was a bit above forecast but reminded markets that maybe not all is well buying into the highs around the all time highs, while corporate profits stagnate or decline. Even Friday’s amazing bank earnings could not save the market from another bad Event sell off. Situation in the middle east seems to be escalating and which Fund wants to be max bullish when this happens? From a price action perspective, this is still just a pull back in bullish markets but since the bull trend was so overdone, climactic and way beyond historical averages, the pull back could be much more deeper than most bulls are comfortable with and that might be one of the reasons we are seeing more sell the rip (str) price action, than buy the dip (btd or BTFD). The volume on red days is also much higher than on advancing ones and the last time we reached those vol levels were during the deep pull back 2023-07 to 2023-10. current market drivers middle east: Big event which could lead to significant downside in the short term. If it isn’t as bad as estimated, could lead to big rebound. One of those things you can’t predict and can only play if your time frames are short and you are quick to exit positions. earnings: Bank earnings were nothing short of amazing. Market rallied the last months like we are economically expanding and profits are rising like never before in history. Big big tail risk but as long as earnings don’t turn bad, markets will probably not care too much about them. Remember, your job as a trader is not to predict but to follow the market reaction. I thought earnings would come in softer and market would therefore sell off but they came in strong and market sold off nonetheless so I don’t care why my market thesis is right, I just put myself in a place to anticipate market movements and when they happen, I ride the wave in either direction. second wave of inflation: Commodities are on a big rip and if Oil continues, after 90$, 100$ is next logical target. Hard to imagine prices not rising again on those levels. dax cfd Quote from last week: bear case: My quote from last week tried to encourage you to wait for selling pressure before considering closing longer term longs or enganging in shorts. Market did just that with the beginning of April and we saw a 500 point drop in a two legged correction. Bears need to keep the selling pressure high and if they are strong, keep the bear small bear gaps on the 1h tf open. We are right above the daily 20ema and the lower bull channel line. If bears can get a close below 18250, that could trigger many long stops and the odds of more sideways to down rise significantly. Their next targets are 18250 and 18000 afterwards. current market cycle: Bull trend - Market is still inside the bull channel and until clearly broken and a lower high below, it stays that way. Yet I do think there is a decent chance the high is in and the retest will be a lower high and the market is currently evolving into trading range before the bigger bear trend begins. key levels: Strong support 18000 (expected) - 18810 (I can’t see market making another ath, if I had to guess, 18600 will be max if bulls manage to bounce) bull case: 4 Pushes down on now and only 2 green bars on the daily chart. It’s a very tight bear channel down to 18000 on the daily chart and tight channels are never sustainable. Market is at the bull trend line from 2023-10 and unless the tail risks, especially the middle east situation, is bigger than expected, market will probably bounce. Bulls just have to buy strongly at they big round number here to prevent a flush down to 17600 or even 17000. bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected. outlook last week: “Sideways to up - Since markets mostly expect a retest of the extremes, the odds favor sideways and a retest. Range is probably 18250 - 18800 for now. If earnings on Tuesday are bad, this could go much lower much faster.” → Last Sunday we traded 18433 and now we are at 18082. Again, not the worst outlook because I clearly gave the lower levels if bears could continue to sell off. I’m a little surprised of how fast we got here now, given that 2023-12 to 2023-01 took 21 (TWENTY ONE) trading days to do the same we did in 8. short term: Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800. medium-long term: Second bearish week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10. I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part Chart update: My preferred path is the green one (higher probability), despite my bearish outlook. If we continue to drop below 18000, this was most likely a W1 of a new bear trend.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
EUR/USD week 15 analysis/outlookLast week, the EUR/USD market was a whirlwind of activity, marked by heightened volatility and significant price swings. The week began with bullish momentum, as buyers took charge and pushed prices higher. However, by midweek, the market experienced a dramatic shift, with increased selling pressure leading to sharp declines in the EUR/USD pair. Despite the tumultuous nature of the market, traders were presented with ample opportunities to capitalize on the volatility. Profit levels soared during periods of heightened activity, particularly on Wednesday, when profit levels far exceeded expectations. However, the increased volatility also posed significant challenges, with rapid price movements catching many traders off guard. Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate continued volatility in the EUR/USD market. While there may be some attempts at recovery, the overall sentiment remains uncertain, with the potential for further downside pressure. Traders should remain cautious and vigilant, closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
by RobertD7723
EURUSD - Bearish Control Soon⏱Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red. Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge acting as a non-horizontal resistance. Moreover, it is retesting a strong resistance zone at 1.088 marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
1
DXY to 113 - B U L L I S Hbullish TVC:DXY A lot of the currencies in the basket of the DXY are looking weak against the USD and there are other factors known and unknown, both too long to list to support these ideas. The price action is leading the narrative that will be printed in the rags when the PA has broke the recent high that sent the DXY down for the retest. Printing hidden weekly and daily bullish divergence on momentum oscillators. From the Daily to the Monthly chart this is bullish price action that is going to go for a vertical rally. Check the other idea on this as well Other ideas posted at local bottoms for DXY are also in the old ideas
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn29592158
a weekly price action after hour update - tesla #4Good Day and I hope you are well, prev. outlook from 2024-03-13 Quote from my #3 Tesla update: "tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish." and the second quote: "bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling everything. If they manage to break below the bear channel, the long covering will accelerate it to 150 but probably not much further before earnings. If earnings are as bad as i expect, the remaining die hard bulls will give up. Except for Cathy. This stock and her fund will go down in 2024." bull case: If bulls somehow manage to keep this above 150 and they can break above the bear wedge and close above the daily 20ema, there is a chance this stock could trade sideways probably between 160 and 200. bear case: If 150 breaks, next stop is 100-110. Earnings will officially be released on 2024-04-23 after hours. So don't get fooled by all the reports. They just reported one part of their abysmal earnings. The rest will bring us below 150 and the long covering will be epic. This stock is going two digit in 2024. short term: 150-160, earnings in 2 weeks should bring us below 150 and on our way to 100-110. medium-long term: 100-110 where it might go sideways for a longer time. If they survive obvioously.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds