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2024-04-15 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. bull case: 50 points down and 60 points up. Unreal price action for this Market. Bulls bought where they had to, to stay inside the broad bull channel or expanding triangle. Call it what you want, you trade it the same. Since Fridays sell off was so extreme, I rather be humble as a bull and take my profits on weakness. Retest of 2450 or higher depends on the news. Sad but that just so. Big macro risk is just that. bear case: Bears tried to get below 2360 but failed miserably. Now the best they can hope for is weakness around 2400 and market stays under but hard to imagine. When the buyers come around again like Friday and today since bar 11, bears just move aside and this melts. Odds clearly favor the bulls. short term: Sideways to up - Invalid below 2340. Expect 2420 or higher tomorrow, unless big sellers appear again. Perfect momentum market currently. medium-long term: It’s fair to say that we are living through a macro event, which I have been talking about for many weeks now, not knowing anything about the middle east. Markets do what they do, before the fitting news comes around. Someone always knows. Right now this is going up and only up. Do I want to buy long term Gold longs? Hell no. Only short term trades for me here. Since you asked… I can not dream up reasons why Gold would trade above 2400 a year from now. But I sure can be wrong about that. trade of the day: Follow the momentum.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202416 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Last week was expected until Wednesday, as markets mostly moved sideways. Two weeks ago I concluded the most recent bull trends had their trend lines broken and the daily 20emas also. Wednesday’s CPI print was a bit above forecast but reminded markets that maybe not all is well buying into the highs around the all time highs, while corporate profits stagnate or decline. Even Friday’s amazing bank earnings could not save the market from another bad Event sell off. Situation in the middle east seems to be escalating and which Fund wants to be max bullish when this happens? From a price action perspective, this is still just a pull back in bullish markets but since the bull trend was so overdone, climactic and way beyond historical averages, the pull back could be much more deeper than most bulls are comfortable with and that might be one of the reasons we are seeing more sell the rip (str) price action, than buy the dip (btd or BTFD). The volume on red days is also much higher than on advancing ones and the last time we reached those vol levels were during the deep pull back 2023-07 to 2023-10. current market drivers middle east: Big event which could lead to significant downside in the short term. If it isn’t as bad as estimated, could lead to big rebound. One of those things you can’t predict and can only play if your time frames are short and you are quick to exit positions. earnings: Bank earnings were nothing short of amazing. Market rallied the last months like we are economically expanding and profits are rising like never before in history. Big big tail risk but as long as earnings don’t turn bad, markets will probably not care too much about them. Remember, your job as a trader is not to predict but to follow the market reaction. I thought earnings would come in softer and market would therefore sell off but they came in strong and market sold off nonetheless so I don’t care why my market thesis is right, I just put myself in a place to anticipate market movements and when they happen, I ride the wave in either direction. second wave of inflation: Commodities are on a big rip and if Oil continues, after 90$, 100$ is next logical target. Hard to imagine prices not rising again on those levels. dax cfd Quote from last week: bear case: My quote from last week tried to encourage you to wait for selling pressure before considering closing longer term longs or enganging in shorts. Market did just that with the beginning of April and we saw a 500 point drop in a two legged correction. Bears need to keep the selling pressure high and if they are strong, keep the bear small bear gaps on the 1h tf open. We are right above the daily 20ema and the lower bull channel line. If bears can get a close below 18250, that could trigger many long stops and the odds of more sideways to down rise significantly. Their next targets are 18250 and 18000 afterwards. current market cycle: Bull trend - Market is still inside the bull channel and until clearly broken and a lower high below, it stays that way. Yet I do think there is a decent chance the high is in and the retest will be a lower high and the market is currently evolving into trading range before the bigger bear trend begins. key levels: Strong support 18000 (expected) - 18810 (I can’t see market making another ath, if I had to guess, 18600 will be max if bulls manage to bounce) bull case: 4 Pushes down on now and only 2 green bars on the daily chart. It’s a very tight bear channel down to 18000 on the daily chart and tight channels are never sustainable. Market is at the bull trend line from 2023-10 and unless the tail risks, especially the middle east situation, is bigger than expected, market will probably bounce. Bulls just have to buy strongly at they big round number here to prevent a flush down to 17600 or even 17000. bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected. outlook last week: “Sideways to up - Since markets mostly expect a retest of the extremes, the odds favor sideways and a retest. Range is probably 18250 - 18800 for now. If earnings on Tuesday are bad, this could go much lower much faster.” → Last Sunday we traded 18433 and now we are at 18082. Again, not the worst outlook because I clearly gave the lower levels if bears could continue to sell off. I’m a little surprised of how fast we got here now, given that 2023-12 to 2023-01 took 21 (TWENTY ONE) trading days to do the same we did in 8. short term: Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800. medium-long term: Second bearish week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10. I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part Chart update: My preferred path is the green one (higher probability), despite my bearish outlook. If we continue to drop below 18000, this was most likely a W1 of a new bear trend.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
EUR/USD week 15 analysis/outlookLast week, the EUR/USD market was a whirlwind of activity, marked by heightened volatility and significant price swings. The week began with bullish momentum, as buyers took charge and pushed prices higher. However, by midweek, the market experienced a dramatic shift, with increased selling pressure leading to sharp declines in the EUR/USD pair. Despite the tumultuous nature of the market, traders were presented with ample opportunities to capitalize on the volatility. Profit levels soared during periods of heightened activity, particularly on Wednesday, when profit levels far exceeded expectations. However, the increased volatility also posed significant challenges, with rapid price movements catching many traders off guard. Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate continued volatility in the EUR/USD market. While there may be some attempts at recovery, the overall sentiment remains uncertain, with the potential for further downside pressure. Traders should remain cautious and vigilant, closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
by RobertD7723
EURUSD - Bearish Control Soon⏱Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red. Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge acting as a non-horizontal resistance. Moreover, it is retesting a strong resistance zone at 1.088 marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
1
DXY to 113 - B U L L I S Hbullish TVC:DXY A lot of the currencies in the basket of the DXY are looking weak against the USD and there are other factors known and unknown, both too long to list to support these ideas. The price action is leading the narrative that will be printed in the rags when the PA has broke the recent high that sent the DXY down for the retest. Printing hidden weekly and daily bullish divergence on momentum oscillators. From the Daily to the Monthly chart this is bullish price action that is going to go for a vertical rally. Check the other idea on this as well Other ideas posted at local bottoms for DXY are also in the old ideas
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn29592158
a weekly price action after hour update - tesla #4Good Day and I hope you are well, prev. outlook from 2024-03-13 Quote from my #3 Tesla update: "tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish." and the second quote: "bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling everything. If they manage to break below the bear channel, the long covering will accelerate it to 150 but probably not much further before earnings. If earnings are as bad as i expect, the remaining die hard bulls will give up. Except for Cathy. This stock and her fund will go down in 2024." bull case: If bulls somehow manage to keep this above 150 and they can break above the bear wedge and close above the daily 20ema, there is a chance this stock could trade sideways probably between 160 and 200. bear case: If 150 breaks, next stop is 100-110. Earnings will officially be released on 2024-04-23 after hours. So don't get fooled by all the reports. They just reported one part of their abysmal earnings. The rest will bring us below 150 and the long covering will be epic. This stock is going two digit in 2024. short term: 150-160, earnings in 2 weeks should bring us below 150 and on our way to 100-110. medium-long term: 100-110 where it might go sideways for a longer time. If they survive obvioously.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and I hope you are well. Today bears actually showed up and bulls began the profit taking. Very refreshing to see some two sided trading and not making more ath. I do think for all indexes the selling was strong enough to get another leg down, which then is mostly a third leg or W5 and markets are or will then trade at bigger support prices, trend lines and daily 20emas. sp500 Yesterday I gave 5230 as a measured move target and low of the day was 5235, hope you made some. bull case: Bulls are one more red day away from giving up control of the market and we go into neutral territory. 20ema was hit today but market closed above (currently around 5246). Bulls will probably get to the 1h 20ema and a retest of the breakout below the bull trend line (view chart). It’s already almost there and the reaction there is important. For bulls to retake full control, they need to break out of the red bear channel and trade above the 1h 20ema again, currently at 5270. bear case: Market has now broken all bull trend lines and once we have a daily close below the 20ema, bulls are probably done. Retest of the breakout and upper bear channel line will probably happen in the Globex session and I expect market to hover around open/close price from today before EU session tomorrow. Bears want a third leg down which would bring us probably to around 5210/5200 and the chance that we break that on the first try is very low. Below 5200 is 5185ish next. Invalid above 5290. short term: Sideways to down - bulls want back above 5290/5300 and bears want to stay inside the bear channel for a third leg down to around 5210/5200. medium-long term: Below 5200 I keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. I expect earnings to become weak in this quarter (Q1 - Banks begin reporting next week) but could take next one as well. —unchanged trade of the day: Short at upper bear channel line and 1h 20ema. Perfect signal to short and was good for 61 points.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action after hour update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. WTI Crude Oil bull case: Still inside the bull channel but market get’s more two sided trading. I can’t see another strong leg up but more trading range price action between 80-85. 85 Should be the max here and the very big triangle will probably play out over more months. Upside is probably very limited here. bear case: Bears doing enough to make this two sided and bulls refrain from buying too high. Market will probably test the daily 20ema soon, which is around 80.64 and around the lower bull channel trend line. Invalid above 85. outlook last week: “Neutral - Sideways to up probably. We could range more and get a small second leg down but not lower than 78. Then a retest of the high is expected.” → Last Sunday we traded 80.63 and now we are at 83.02. Bulls stronger than expected but I gave those targets months ago and clear invalidation points for bulls and bears. short term: Neutral again. Market is high enough here at 83. I see 85 as max and we will probably see more profit taking here and a pullback to the daily 20ema. So valid targets in both direction means neutral for me. Below 80 I turn bear again. medium-long term: Bullish targets also met for me here. Big triangle still playing out and I’m only interested in shorts here. I wait for market weakness.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 e-miniGood day, I hope you are well and enjoyed the holidays. This is my post from before US Session open today, sorry for posting late here. overall market comment tl;dr monthly update: The following are my very rough guesses what could happen over the next 6 months and why this trend is on it’s last leg Q1 earnings will show weakness and market stops making new highs and does a small correction before sideways/retest of highs. Economic indicators continue to deteriorate Q1-Q2 once the price advances stop, more profit taking will follow and we begin a downtrend Q3/Q4 CBs will start the cutting if inflation does not tick up consecutive months and that’s usually where we see the beginning of the bigger down turn If the above are roughly accurate, my bearish outlooks on the weekly/monthly could work out. If not, markets could just continue the pump until next event happens. sp500 Quote from last Thursday: bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make bulls take profit. If bulls can close this quarter at the highs again, consider me dumbstruck again. Market gapped up big in Globex for new ath and last week also closed green. Market is staying inside the tight bull channel starting 2024-01-05, which i marked as W3. In my calculations W5 should be done because we already overshot enough but market obviously does not care and could go on. I’m just saying that this is overbought, overdone and i expect a bigger correction very soon. It’s always at the end of moves where it’s not turning where it should have to fool weak traders into thinking “this time is different” and market can only go up. The small bull channel will be broken over the next 1-3 weeks and we will touch the daily 20ema (around 5240) and afterwards break 5200 again and 5000 over the next 1-2 months. Also, Nasdaq is clearly forming a top already and many Generals stopped advancing. There won’t be a -10% on Nasdaq while the SP500 gains +10, that’s not how this works. bull case: Bulls in full control but as stated above, buying up here is so much risk for a very limited upside imo. Trade small and long until bears show up. For me, all calculated targets are met and I now just wait until market shows weakness. Obviously bulls can continue to grind it even higher. I pay close attention to market generals because they often show the way. Apple shows weakness for many weeks now but banks are melting up. If bank earnings do not surprise upwards, my best guess is, that it will mark the high and last earnings surprised downwards. Earnings will start next week. bear case: Bears need to stop the bulls from making new highs and break the tight bull channel. Then we can talk. I do think the reasonable trade for the rest of the year is to the down side. Now it’s about being patient and not FOMO into stupid trades. I have drawn my rough guess but market has to turn and selling pressure has to build first for this to have any merit. short term: overbought and overdone - not doing anything besides small scalps and waiting for market to change character. medium-long term: All of my calculated bullish targets are met and market is beyond overbought. No more updates here before we see bears showing up.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂Ethereum - A Look at the 5-Day ChartHey there,✌ MEXC:ETHUSDT Price broke above the critical $2100 resistance level and consolidated with a bullish trend, reaching $4000. After reaching those highs, the price met some resistance and pulled back a bit. it's currently showing positive signs around the $3000 FVG (Fair Value Gap). As long as the price remains above $3000, the long-term outlook is bullish, with targets of $4400 and $4700. In case of a breakdown and confirmation below the $3000 support, the probability of a deeper correction increases. This is not financial advice, though❗ Do your research before making any investment decisions. Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌ if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
Long
by SasanSeifi
2
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make bulls take profit. If bulls can close this quarter at the highs again, consider me dumbstruck again. bear case: Pullback was shallow as expected. Unexpected was the selloff into the close again. My thesis was, this is profit taking end of quarter and i expect more trading range price action tomorrow. If the low probability case happens and we see bigger profit taking, it could actually become a big pullback from near the ath. But i will only look for shorts when we close a 1h big red candle below 5300. short term: Neutral going into last trading dax of the quarter. Absolutely everything is on the table for tomorrow, from melt up 5400 to big profit taking to 5280. medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. I expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well. —unchanged trade of the day: Buy near 5300 and sell above 5312 , worked since yesterday late in US session.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Gold Quote from my weekly post: short term: Neutral. Bulls could break above 2200 again and bears could also break below 2140. bull case: Market seems bullish enough for 2220 test again and i think it this time it will break again for retest 2247. I’d be surprised if we get big sell volume around 2220 again. Market is forming multiple triangles but where are obviously still above many many bull trend lines and bears just not doing enough. bear case: Not much going on for them. I don’t know how strongly 2220 will be sold again but market is going a third time there and bears could also just step aside and trying to short again higher. Looking for longs is the much butter play overall for gold in the current environment. short term: Bullish. Invalid below 2200 but i think we retest 2247 soon. medium-long term: very high probability of reaching 2300 and there i will look how the market behaves. We could be entering the equities off and commodities on cycle. Very long term Gold was nowhere near equities and that’s why betting on gold entering a bullish cycle to 3000/4000 is very low probability. Higher probability is betting on a higher high here inside a big trading range 1700 - 2200 and we will trade down over the next months. I would not enter long term positions here. —unchanged, need more time at this level or breakout to change my outlook.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. I was totally already writing the update with the most annoying small trading range price action in mind (obviously not the dax) but then the bears used the power hour to extend the range downwards. If anything i’d guessed we close near the open. Interesting going into tomorrow and if bears can generate follow through or at least keep bulls below the lower highs. sp500 bull case: Still a rather weak bear flag and daily 20ema is still 50 points away. If the bulls are still eager and strong, they wont let the gap close to 5250 or let the market reverse Wednesday’s breakout. If we trade below, i expect them to buy more strongly around the lower bull trend line 5220ish. I do think the sell off into the close today was unexpected. bear case: If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, market for sure will retest 5324. If we get follow through, next targets are 5250 and 5220. There is a less than 5% chance that the market will break this bull trend line on the next touch. Best bears can probably get is a trading range 5250 - 5324. Measured move from the bear bar into the close is around 5240, which is also where the trend line could be, depending on the time we arrive there. short term: Neutral - means sideways. If bears won’t step it up, we retest 5300 and higher. Invalid below 5220. Then next would be the bull trend line (depending when we reach 5230) and below that is 5200. —unchanged medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. i expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well. trade of the day: Deadly price action for your account if you gamble and are not comfortable with small trading ranges. I think the odds from bar 17 to today’s 7, were clearly bullish and bar 8-11 was just a pullback. I think market was expecting to trade above 13+14 again because the range was so tight and the bull leg before was strong enough for a retest 5300+. That could be a reason why 17 was so strong, many traders cought on the wrong side and quickly gave up. How do you trade it? Either you are good a small scalps or don’t trade it at all. Other possibility could have been, you were short from bar 8 or at least short from above 5290, then you could have hold just into close. But who is short from there, when market is clearly bullish.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Let me start today with a beautiful quote, which is often repeated in some form or another and indefinitely more people do not grasp. As we’ve discussed, every security is a claim on some set of cash flows that will be delivered to investors over time. Yet at any given moment, the only two things that determine the price of a stock are a) the highest price the most eager buyer is willing to pay, and b) the lowest price that the most eager seller is willing to accept. If enough buyers are eager and enough sellers are hesitant, the price will advance. If enough sellers are eager and enough buyers are hesitant, the price will decline. It doesn’t matter why. www.hussmanfunds.com I recommended the market comment from John P. Hussman on x yesterday but i want to make sure, more people read it because it’s that amazing and free. Props to him for doing it. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls doing a good enough job keeping this above 80 and they got a retest of 82 today. Market is not accepting anything above 82 for now, but if bulls keep at it, something will give. We probably range more between 80 - 82 until a clear breakout and i think i can go either way. Bar 10 + 11 was strong enough that we could get a second leg up. We formed a good looking two legged pullback on the 1h chart and we could move higher soon. bear case: Bears scalping at best here, it’s probably more bulls taking profit. They would need to get a really good close below 80 with follow through, for lower prices. Right now odds of that are very small. Best they can probably get is a trading range 80 - 83. short term: Neutral with slight bullish favor inside given range medium-long term: Market needs to reach the big bear trend line around 84 and we need to see the reaction there. It’s a bull trend but on the weekly it’s a weak looking trend with many overlapping bars. Could easily reach 84 and trade back down to 75 again over some weeks. That’s it for today, have a good night and talk to you tomorrow.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
EUR/USD near lower rangeChart legend: Yellow lines: These line represent the lower and upper boundary of the range that has been tracked for the last 30+ days. Orange lines: Buy and sell side volume in the order book. These areas are where the buying and selling volume are the highest. Note that multiple zone could exist, these are just the strongest ones. Purple lines: This is the combination of order book volume and frequency counting of prices. The combined weight shows where the market actually is in relation to current price of what the buyers and sellers want. Outlook: I believe the market is going to re-test the support area around 1.079. The order book suppport levels are considerably weak compared to the resistance levels and bearish pressure, so we could have prices set a new lower range over the week. It should be taken into consideration though, that the bulls have had several weaker support level and still managed to fend off bearish pressure. While the frequency weighted support zone does look quite weak, the order book does have a substantial amount of orders placed below the area that could stave off the bears. While a new lower range is possible, I don't believe there is going to be any major changes in the current market direction for the first half of the week at a minimum. I think the bears will need more of a show to really move the market lower for a substantially longer period of time.
by RobertD7723
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets want green across the board and that means acceptance. Bears can’t deny it because they are not doing anything to stop this so higher prices are the higher probability here, no matter how overbought everything is. The only possibility i can dream up currently is that this quarter was so utterly overbought, that we could see profit taking into end of quarter and that could hit many profit taking stops along the way but that is so far fetched right now. But then again, so is this rally. Gold bull case: 67 points made on Wednesday, that’s something you don’t see that often in gold. Today was bigger profit taking but market did a perfect breakout retest and bulls bought it. You could draw a triangle here and a 50% pullback of the Wednesday move is pretty much the middle of it. Close is close enough for markets. Means market is in breakout mode for new direction. Anything above 2200 is not accepted and sold but bears could not reverse the breakout. Will see tomorrow where this is heading next. bear case: Bears got a perfect retest of yesterdays breakout and bulls bought it. Not good for the bears. I mentioned market is in breakout mode and bears can only dream of trading below 2150 again. As long as bull trend lines hold and market trades above the daily 20ema which is around 2150, this is bullish. short term: Neutral here - want to see the triangle play out and get a clear breakout to either side with follow through. Can’t really see that happening tomorrow but i’m open to the possibility. Range 2160 - 2200 medium-long term: Very high probability of reaching 2300 and there i will look how the market behaves. We could be entering the equities off and commodities on cycle. Very long term Gold was nowhere near equities and that’s why betting on gold entering a bullish cycle to 3000/4000 is very low probability. Higher probability is betting on a higher high here inside a big trading range 1700 - 2200 and we will trade down over the next months. I would not enter long term positions here. — unchanged trade of the day: 7 1h candles with wicks above 2210. Markets only try one thing so often until they try something different. Obvious short Bar 10 as it formed. Bar 12 had a big enough tail to set the stop 1 tick above it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Trading Game. How they manipulate with priceImagine You buy a stock or business, that You think was undervalued based on the "circumstances" and that you think has great value. You bought this at 1$, during 2020 November alongside with the oil rally. Nobody knows the price. Everyone has a price target... Imagine my price target was 7$ - based on the previous highs. Chances are everyone will look at it the same way and adjust the price based on some context. Under price momentum, there was buyers and sellers and stock rise to 3$..4$..5$ etc... If everyone use 7$ for guidance - most likely everyone be selling their shares at 5$. If I wanted you to sell higher I would shout 10$. If I wanted you to sell lower I would shout 0.50$. People would adjust their targets and nobody knows exactly how much something is worth. That's what the institutions do with their public price targets. It works like a poker game. The closer price got to 5$ -> more risk you took by buying or holding it. If I had a ton of bitcoins, I would shout $200k price. and sell it when it's strong. etc. Then cause panic - to get cheaper prices. #101
NYSE:RIGLong
by citsvar
13
#202412 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Morning and i hope you are well. Last week the dax bulls created a potential exhaustive very big island gap, US indexes ranged at the highs, gold ranged after the uber bullish move up and oil did exactly what i have been writing for many weeks now. No matter how you want to draw it, Nasdaq made lower lows, printed 2 consecutive weekly bear bars (last time was end of October) and closed below the daily 20ema. You can bet your Glutes that i have my hopes up, this will finally roll over. The drops in Bitcoin were also big enough to flip the market to always in short if bulls cant bring this above 70000 again. So i think given Opex and FOMC next week and the price action, we are probably having a key week for the markets ahead of us. dax Quote from last week: bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again. This week, bulls formed the third big bullish gap on the daily time frame, since the bull market started 2023-10. So what are the odds of the market doing a fourth before having a bigger correction? If you find an example where German GDP contracted while Dax did this, please let me know. We will close 2 of those 3 gaps in Q2, which would only bring us down to around 17000. The odds of this gap being a measuring one to break above the bull trend line starting 2023-02 are so abysmally small, that we could actually see an island reversal here to mark this as a top. If bulls can keep the gap to 18000 open and break above the bull trend line 18300, i’m fairly certain this won’t stop until 19500/20000. bull case: Bulls want the daily gap to 18000 to stay open and have the next breakout which could be the third leg up for the latest bull trend that started with the breakout on 2024-02-21. That third leg could give us 18600 and would invalidated the smaller bull trend lines on the chart and give us the bigger one, which started before the Covid crash and could lead to 20000. I think the probability of this happening is as great as Tesla FSD actually being FSD in the next 2 years. Daily 20ema is still 500 points away and has not been touched for more than a month. bear case: Everything you read in this section makes more sense than the bull case, however, until bears close those bullish gaps and we see the market trading below the daily 20ema, everything in here is low probability as well. Can 18329 be the high and we drop 500 points to trap many bulls? Absolutely. Did the market stop making new all time highs for some time? Hell naw and that’s why you don’t look for shorts until bears show strength. We again are at multiple upper trend lines, calculated measured move targets and so far away from the 20ema, that if the market turns, it will probably turn violently. Bears first target is still to stop the market from making new ath and close the gap to 18000. outlook last week: “up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting” → Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday. short term: break above 18400 and this might just run straight to 18600 and that would open the door for 19000 and 20000. Invalid below 18000 and if bears actually show up, depending on the strength, could easily fall straight to 17700. medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged Chart wave thesis was not updated and is still valid. Will update if either of mentioned breakouts happen.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Bitcoin Heading to 64.8kTraders, Bitcoin is likely to start making daily lower highs this next week. Of course, we have another FOMC meeting coming up which will add a level of uncertainty and possible volatility. I have been hoping for a retrace down to that 64.8k level (ascending multi-year support/resistance) and I think we'll get it. Above I have the proposed path that price might take. Once we have tagged that 64.8k level the question becomes, "What's next?". Remember, we have an 80k inverse H&S target which we have NOT hit yet. And as long as we remain above that multi-year support level, my experience tells me that we'll probably bounce there and continue upwards. However, as always, we have to prepare for the other scenario as well, that we continue down. If we continue down, then likely we'll retest that purple neckline around 48k. And, IMO, that may be one of the last times you'll ever see 48k on BTC again. Even with the looming U.S. recession/depression that should begin sometime this year (and it will be bad), I see Bitcoin holding it's ground and remaining relatively strong overall against other asset classes. Best in all your trades, Stewdamus
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
3