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a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets showed some restraint and bulls actually began taking profits, which is very unusual for the last weeks, to say the least. We don’t know if bulls will be more cautious buying at the highs this time and we go more sideways or bulls will continue the pump further. I will give an update on Bitcoin tomorrow on tradingview (link on x) and Oil in the after hour update tomorrow. Oil is bullish as long as it stays above the daily 20ema which is around 77.5 right now. So bulls bought it today and i expect more sideways the next days. dax Dax is in a weak bear channel since Friday’s ATH and i expect the range 17600 - 17850 to hold for more days, unless something unexpected happens or is reported. bull case: Bulls keeping this still far far above the daily 20ema which is at 17400. As long as they stay above that, the see the market as bullish and will buy the dips. Today was an expected trading range day where the close was near the open (about 20 points above). I’d be surprised if bears can get it below 17630 and as long as that holds, we will trade back and forth inside the weak bear channel for now. bear case: Bears are probably euphoric because they stopped the market from making another daily new ath. They are taking quick profits and waiting for higher prices to short, which is why we ranged today. Bears next target is 17600 and then 17400 which is the current daily 20ema and the low of last week. short term: neutral - range between 17600 - 17760 (weak bear channel) - break below is 17600 next. above is retest of ath 17846 medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. trade of the day: gap close last Friday 17763 and selling the big bear bar 16 as it was forming. was very clear on the 15m chart because there were 4 bars that could not close above 17760
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #2Good evening and i hope you are well. I did not adjust my wave outlook since 2024-02-11 and so far it's pretty perfect. My thesis is we are in w3 and this will be a treat. Late and perma bulls are still long and or will buy 180/175. So if this bear channel breaks down, the short covering will be epic. Market was/is at the strongest and this stock is in a broad bear channel. The next months the earnings will deteriorate and then we will see where the market thinks this stock is fairly priced. All bubbles pop or deflate, this is deflating. Elon won't even save it with 69 new AI announcements for the reminder of the year. If sh** really hit's the fan, he will be margin called because of x financing and this will fuel the sell off further. bull case: Bulls pray that 175 will hold and they buy the double bottom. If it holds, they want to touch the upper bear channel line around 240 again but i would expect 200 to be bigger resistance then. bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not rocket science so far. short term: wait for market reaction at 175 and follow the trend there. we might go sideways first but i think the general market sell off will accelerate over the next weeks medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well. Quote from last week: Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it support, which trapped all bears who sold below 1.08, if bulls can keep the bullish gap open, this might fuel the rally faster up to 1.092 as it’s first target. Bears closed the gap early but failed at 1.08 which turned support it seems, at least for now. I adjusted my w5 series slightly price and time wise but not much. W2 was deeper than expected but inside acceptable range for a pullback. bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week. bear case: Bears closed the bullish gap but failed to print below 1.08 and the best they can hope for is to stay inside the given range above. Bears had 4 good pushes down from 2023-12 to 2024-02 and i don’t think they want to die on that hill below 1.09. More will probably show up around that price and definitely at 1.1. outlook last week: “up - but invalid below 1.08m then we move more sideways first (bull gap close - see chart)“ → Last Friday we traded 1.0860 and now we are at 1.0860. Funny eh. Good outlook i guess. Market acted as expected and i keep leaning bullish. short term: up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low) medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 until bigger breakout
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. I let my thoughts go wild this week so have my tl;dr here: tl;dr: IMO this is the end of the long ongoing bull trend we had and the climactic moves at the end are not as rare as many think. That does not help you with shorts right now. Scalp long where big or many consecutive bull bars appear and wait for bears to show up again. I think we are very close to the end. Do. Not. Short. Yet. For the people who bear my writing… I dare you to find me an extremer example of a more climactic move at the end of a long ongoing trend than this one. US markets have reasonable trend lines and channels which they respect but the dax is just in a parabolic up move without stopping. Which makes me think everyone and their dog was/is short and covering, fueling the fire. But i will die on that hill, that this is the end of the bull trend and not the beginning of a new one. I called the -30% (at least) drop for this year and i stick to that. I try to keep to price action for my trading as much as i can and most macro news are not affecting the market as most people think they do. Now comes the but. I live in Germany and we are in an economic downtrend with very high rates compared to the last 14 years. Find someone which company says they are hiring extensively and outlooks are raised. DM me then please. Markets are a casino in the short term but Macroeconomics (i like to call it macro schmackro) will catch up eventually. It always has and always will. One very clear indicator, which everyone knows and rarely listens to are people around you after a trend has been going on for quite some time. Goes as follows: You hear colleagues, neighbors, granny and your dead dog talking about markets only going ti*ts up and options are the name of the game. Crypto is yes yes yes buybuybuy. Then you look at the chart and see that it has been going up for a long long time. That’s where these trends end. Something news worthy will come up on the horizon and you can be sure many people who will lose their savings, pension and whatnot over the next 2 years. This was and always will be a boom bust cycle. The bust probably does not go below some pre-bust levels but it will bust as it always has. Does that mean i call to short this and the high is in? Well, i thought the late December price action formed a credible top but on the weekly it was a rather small pullback. You simply can’t short into this if you can’t take the pain. Markets are giving no signal that the highs are in, so you should scalp long and wait for markets to become more two sided. dax Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls probably want to touch that big green bull trend line at around 17500 which is pretty far fetched imo. Market is still not accepting anything above 17100 and bulls took profits going into the weekend. I think the low probability breakout above happened and trapped many traders who sold everything above 17100, which worked since mid December. Probably exhaustion but bears need to prove that early next week. bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. bear case: Easier to have bear targets but bears have done nothing this week so everything i write here is low probability and you should only look for these targets when bears clearly show strength and making lower highs and lower lows. First target is a 1h close below Fridays open 17442 and the 1h 20ema is around there too. 17400 was tested multiple times on Friday and i think we could range there first. For the very low probability of a big sign of strength by the bears and a sell-off below 17380, next would be the uber monster bullish gap 17160 which is also my thesis for the exhaustion gap. My bearish thesis only lives if we close the next week below 17000 because the monthly close is the most important thing now for bears. If bulls close above 17400, it is a clear buy signal for higher time frame traders/algo's and it means acceptance. We had two daily closes above my invalidation target and if bulls can keep this gap open, we see higher prices. outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 17461 and now we are at 17775. i said sideways to up but it was only up. not the worst outlook but the extend of the up can only be surprising to anyone short term: neutral is the only reasonable thing here. after so many buy climaxes without more pullback, the odds of continuation drop to almost impossible. does that mean we go down from here? hell no. it’s just very low probability that this can continue without a meaningful pullback. but these things happen and they can go on for longer than most can stay solvent. if bears won’t shop up, scalp long where bulls show strength. medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. I have drawn 2 possible paths and the bearish one is the one i think will play out. maybe not time-wise but price-wise.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - bitcoinGood evening and i hope you are well. I try to do BTC more regularly now. You can think of bitcoin what you want, but it’s a big enough market to follow the basic principles of human nature and therefore price action patterns. Frankly, i don’t care if you think this is going to 0 or 1.000.000. and you don’t have to either to trade it. bull case: Bulls got the big breakout i lastly talked about early 2024 above 48000 and they immediately made 50000 support again. That’s why most bears covered and we had the very big climactic rally to 64000. Market has to take a breather here and should go a bit more sideways before w5 and the ultimate retest of the previous ath at 68997.75 and we almost certainly then get a new ath above 70000. How high? No idea. bear case: Got nothing for you here. Maybe if they can get it below the daily 20ema again but that is so low probability. Something very unusual has to happen for that. short term: “Crypto is yes yes yes buybuybuy.“ Just look for longs and follow the bulls. medium-long term: Don’t know how long this rally will go but the last ath was made and market did not spend much time up there, 4-6 weeks and then it went down hard. So i tend to think once we reach 69000/70000, you should look where market stalls and take profits, then wait for a big bear bar to enter long term shorts. This pump has to be done in the next 4 weeks or it wont make a new ath.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
Zomato Simple Analysis BullishNSE:ZOMATO in the past was in a severe downtrend making Lower Lows and Lower Highs. But the Trend has changed recently after the Price engulfed a Lower High and made a Higher High in this Candlestick Chart. Also, a "W" shaped Recovery can be seen in this chart which should take the Price up to "All Time High" which is beyond 169. The expectation is Price should continue its newly begun Up-Trend by making Higher highs and Higher Lows in this chart and eventually reach beyond 169. With a Target of 169, we can expect a 76.87% Return on Investment in this chart for now.
NSE:ZOMATOLong
by priceissupreme
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. I repeated the importance of the monthly close today because my thesis is still that the sp500 e-mini needs daily closes above 5100 for this not being the final move of an unbelievably climactic move. February closed at 5096.5. Does that make my thesis right and we sell off from here? Probably not. Markets mostly going nowhere except for the dax and we need a bigger move with follow through for a new direction. dax Quote from yesterday: short term: same as last days - btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up We got same as last days. Higher high and close at the highs. Nothing is stopping this. Every pullback is bought and buying the 1h 20ema is a profitable strategy for 2 straight weeks. I honestly think we are a couple of days away from funds closing because they kept shorting this. Please forgive my lack of enthusiasm to go deeper into price action for this index. It’s beyond climactic and i think any bigger profit taking could trigger an avalanche of stops because no one want’s to be left holding the bag. Still, for now, it’s only going up and could continue longer than anyone would think. Side note: I dare you to find another example for the Dax where it gained more points on declining GDP figures. Disclaimer: I do think financial markets are nothing but the biggest casino in the world, short term. Long term obviously, fundamentals win. But the extend of this move into this economic outlook and reported figures left and right is beyond anything and i already accounted for a big blow off top and a climactic move on top but this exceeds it by far. bull case: btfd. bear case: none. short term: up and this only changes once we stop making higher highs and start making lower lows again medium-long term: bulls closed the month at the highs and my medium-long term targets were way off and i was early in December to call this top. Maybe it tops at 18000, maybe not. trade of the day: same as last 2 weeks, buy everything around the 1h 20ema
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Interesting day today. Very strong move by the bulls above many bear trend lines. The first move to 2046 happened exactly in the Globex session as i said but the spike to 2058 was so big, that all bears had to give up. I expect follow through. Quote from yesterday: At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest. bull case: Bulls want follow through and i got a measured move target around 2080-2090. If this was a w1, it could lead up to 2100+ again. If bulls can keep the giant bull gap open, i’d enter on a stop 2060 for 2080 and higher. bear case: Bears gave up on the spike bar and will be cautious before shorting again, especially not the bull flag we formed into the close. If they could close the gap to 2046, this might reverse completely but for now bulls are in control. short term: neutral until we break 2060, then it’s up, below 2046 is more down medium-long term: sideways trade of the day: long double bottom one tick above bar 8, which could have given you the complete spike up. Monday and Wednesday could not break 2030 and it was an obvious buy area
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Quote from my weekly outlook: short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower That outlook was good for 300 pips. Hope you made some. bull case: Bulls got exactly what i have laid out. 79.62 was the high before many took profits and bears shorted aggressively. Bulls bought the bull trend line right under the 1h 20ema and to me that’s bullish because bears could not get lower lows. I expect bulls to trade back up, as long as it stays above 78. Target is still 80. bear case: Bears sold the highs and reversed the big breakout but until they break below the bull channel under 78, they have to cover and wait for higher prices again. short term: sideways to up for 80 and invalid below 78. medium-long term: same as last weeks. sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84 trade of the day: buy 78 and sell 49 when the big bars were forming or buy/sell at the bull channel lines
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you follow the dax and maybe some German economic indicators or listen to the German word on the street, you are probably wondering how on earth this market can go higher and print daily new ath’s. Welp, all traders see it's overbought but it still keeps going up. This is absolutely the blow off top and the end of this move and it will soon be over. I have zero doubt about it and we will see at least -30% this year. Feel free to rub it in my face when i have been wrong at the end of the year. Most other indexes are ranging at the highs and bulls are still in btfd mode. Don't over commit to shorts and play the range. Quote from my weekend outlook: bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. bull case: Not much to add here. Until we see higher selling pressure and stop making new daily all time highs, the music will continue. Next time profit taking starts, we will see a -2% / -3% day. bear case: Just nothing. All red bars are probably from bulls taking profits and not bears shorting. 17530 is the first bear target. short term: btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up. i am neutral here and scalp only long until bears show strength medium-long term: strong break above everything with follow through, can’t deny higher prices and no one knows when the squeeze will end. still waiting for the monthly close to give new targets. i’m still holding long term dax shorts which are obviously deep deep red. trade of the day: just a relentless bull trend from the open. no reason anywhere to exit longs
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. bull case: Bulls stalled the market around 2040 which is important now. Bears made lower lows and broke below the triangle. Bulls need to trade back above 2040 and they want a retest of the smaller bear trend line around 2046 and then make a higher high above 2050. At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest. As long as they keep it above 2034, the market is neutral. bear case: Bears broke below the triangle and are trading inside a weak looking bear channel. Their next target is to trade below 2034 and make lower lows. They want the market to stay below 2044. short term: neutral with maybe a slightly higher chance for the bears but need 1h close below 2034 for that. medium-long term: neutral until breakout of bigger triangle with follow through trade of the day: short 2050 which is holding as resistance. there was a good triple top bar 4, 8, 11
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
202409 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. This week was another very strong one for the bulls. Having these kind of climaxes at the top after such a long ongoing trend is often the exhaustive end of it. But all that is just mumbling until bears show up. Bulls continue to pump this higher and that’s just what’s happening right now. All targets have been met and market keeps going because it keeps working. Bears need to generate more selling pressure and trap bulls who bought too high but right now they still can just every dip and make money. sp500 Quote from last week: Last week i drew a two legged (ABC) correction when we traded at 5042 and it was deeper and then higher than anticipated but other than that, a pretty perfect forecast so far. Meaning i still think we are in the second leg down and it will probably hit at least the daily 20ema at around 4970. Low of the week was 4960. That’s is as perfect of a weekly outlook as it get’s. Was i absolutely flabbergasted by the 160 point gain after that? You bet. Can you say i was wrong in my outlook last week? I also wrote short term: down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case For dax my outlook was completely trash but sp500 i nailed it. Let’s view ahead. bull case: Same for dax, hard to come up with higher targets. Most reasonable thing here would be to look for pullbacks and if they are bought, hop along. BTFD has not stopped working for a long time, even though they got a bit bigger, it was not enough so far. I draw something into the chart in case of measured moves but given so many trend lines we are at and the extreme of this move, i can’t see it but market has the ability to go way way beyond what’s reasonable (looking at you NVIDIA. couple more up days and that stock might be the first 10 trillion $ company and you be sure, you will find humans who will go in front of a camera and say why this stock is reasonably priced based on fundamentals, just like they did in 2000). bear case: Bears need way more to stop the BTFD mania. The market is overbought and everyone knows it, that does not help in structuring good short trades, since this buying could continue. Bears need prices below 4931 to make lower lows, that is pretty far away. Best they can probably get is a trading range at the highs. Their first target is the daily 20ema around 5000 and i expect bulls to buy there again. outlook last week: “down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case” → Last Sunday we traded 5014 and now we are at 5101. Market hit my target +10 points. That was +44 if you will. short term: sideways is the best bears can hope for. bulls could also just moon this further. if you read this and think: “so this jack is saying it can go up or down?!” yes bro and now come’s the important distinction: i tell you i’m neutral here and wait for the market to show me further price action and evaluate with hopefully a higher certainty the next profitable trade. right now at 5101 is the absolute worst place to enter a trade. tl;dr: wait for more price action. i lean bearish but bears have done nothing late Friday so i wait. medium-long term: same as dax. my thesis had 5100 as invalidation and now i wait for the monthly close first
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilwti crude oil The chart and my drawn wave outlook is the low probability thesis. More probable is a continuation of the trading range 68-78 or 70-80, whatever price you find more appealing, same outcome. bull case: Bulls still prevented bears from a strong move down, as they had the last months, after a rally and we are still trading above the daily 20ema. We formed a trading range after the bull spike and i adjusted the lower wedge trend line which could hold but for that, bulls need to start the week strong and have immediate follow through. They still want to trade to 80 and touch the upper bear trend line which has started 2022-03. bear case: Bears see a good looking bear bar from Friday and want follow through selling on Monday to get back below the daily 20ema. If they can break the ema and the bull wedge trend line, they have a good chance of a reversal back down to 70. outlook last week: “sideways to up - invalid below 75” → Last Sunday we traded 78.46 and now we are at 76.49. the week was mostly sideways. if bears can push below 75 i say i was wrong but so far oil is above the important support prices short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower medium-long term: same as last weeks. sideways inside the big triangle, above 80 odds favor bulls to get to the upper bear trend line around 82-84
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #3Good evening and i hope you are well. Last time i talked about Nvidia was 3 week ago and Nvidia at 661. Time to revisit and adjust again. I said buy, 700 and even 800 were my targets. Market kept at it, 788 now with 823. If you made money, please leave a comment, thumps up or whatnot. I hope you enjoyed it. Outlook Quote from last outlook: "The thing about FOMO rallies is, no one knows where it will end and it can go so much higher and longer than anyone would have ever guessed." If you don't think this stock is a bubble, you have not been paying enough attention to bubbles and the financial markets as whole. But it's alright, as long as you make money, no one cares. Only question is, when will it burst. I explained my reasoning why it will continue to go up and if it stops, it might go down hard because so many people want to save their gains. bull case: 800 was my rough target based on some measured moves, it's a big round number and market did what it had to. Good profit taking there too. Now what possibly can the reason for the bulls be to buy this? Well, it's only going up and trend is your friend. Does that mean it's smart to buy at upper trend lines, fulfilled measured move targets and what have you? No. It's plain freaking dumb from a risk:reward perspective. The next reasonable targets are 900 and 1000. I just won't try to come up with reasoning from a price action perspective here, sorry. bear case: I did not touch any of the lines drawn 3 weeks ago. Last week we had a pullback for 10% and this week another run for 25% up. This is peak insanity of a stock and we are very close to the end. No one want's to be left holding the bag and the next pullback will be a deeper one. For that to happen, the overall market has to weaken and since we are still making new ath's evey week, no reasoning for a short here anyhow. If you dare, wait for weakness and then sell small. The risk:reward is on your side if bears can get something going, which odds favor after such a buy climax. If bears are strong, their first target should be 670. short term: stock is just going up and that's why the probability of it continuing, is higher than sideways or down. does that mean you should buy? no. risk:reward is on bear side and for that we need to see weakness and consecutive bear bars closing on their lows. so even probability is low, one should look for weakness and sell it small. medium-long term: bubbles burst eventually and when they do, market overshoots to the downside as well before osciallating around the fair price (average price). what will that be? who the f knows. if this stock does not lose at least 40% this year, i have to rethink my life choices very hard. Have a great weekend
NASDAQ:NVDA
by priceactiontds
1
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you are a regular reader, you know by now, that i’m the first to acknowledge and point out my errors. I’m tougher on myself than the internet could ever be. Today was another humbling day for bearish takes on the market. One would think the odds for deeper pullbacks rise with each consecutive buy climax. Not today anyhow. Having invalidation prices for your market take is crucial for survival of your account and always have a stop in place. At the end of trends the odds of an exhaustive move are high. You can see this on higher time frames as on lower ones. This parabolic move today has a very high probability of being one but bears need to show strength soon. dax bull case: Very strong day and odds favor the bulls because they are in control and we are making higher highs. That’s the reality. Can bears print big bear bars and take over to reverse the whole day? Yeah i think so but it’s low probability. Bulls bought low and we are very high again. It’s also true that the last weeks bulls weren’t eager to buy into new highs and the pullbacks we got, got bigger. So tomorrow would be interesting to see if bulls can close above 17400 or not. Measured move from today’s spike (we had a spike-pullback bull trend today) is 17600. bear case: Bears will try to sell the highs again because the last couple of days/weeks they made money doing so. They need to trade down to a potential neckline 17290 and then form a higher low before they have a decent chance of lower prices. short term: down to sideways - pullback is expected but bulls are in control. higher prices are possible but i think sideways is the most likely outcome for tomorrow medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17200 - bulls got one and another would change my mind until i see the monthly close. i still expect this Februar to close below 17000 but it’s far away trade of the day: long since globex open bar 2 because marked gapped up and never looked back. could have bought every pullback coming close to the 15 20ema also. after bar 29-32, there was 75% of a bull trend day and higher prices and one should not look for shorts after such a strong move until bears clearly took control and for that they have to break bull trend lines and trade below the ema - the higher the time frame the more reliable
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
1
a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. Bears making lower lows but bulls buy them. That means prominent tails above and below bars and you have to be humble about your scalps. Markets don’t go from big bull to big bear trend and betting on breakouts after mind boggling rallies is low probability and a losing strategy. nasdaq Bears tried all day to get the market down and bulls just bought the last hour to reverse 12h of price action. After hour spike was big enough for many stops and we will probably range between 17400 and 17800 the next days. Nvidia’s earnings were happening while i typed it. Interesting bar from 17409-17618. But also changes nothing. Market is looking for the next trend and we keep ranging until a strong one has formed. It’s up and down and down and up. Confusion is the hallmark of a trading range. I think anything above 17500 is an incredible short opportunity. This spike might just retest the bull channel breakout and will be faded hard. Don't be exit liquidity at these highs. bull case: Bulls bought 17400 and had a very strong close above the 1h 20ema. They now want a higher high above 17620 to stop the bears from making lower lows. Since the selloff was around 700 points, i expect some bulls who scaled in lower, to exit their longs along the way and the best the bulls get is another lower high below 18000 and first they need to close above the daily 20ema too (around 17570). bear case: Bears want a lower high below 18000 and preferably below the open of the week 17722 to keep late bulls trapped. The month is almost over and the close of this months bar with the new ath is very important, if bears manage to close it below the old ath 17716, it’s a sell signal. They want the tail above to be as big a possible. Anything below 17300 would give us a bloodbath March. short term: sideways - probably inside a range 17400 - 17700 (ignoring the after hour spike for now and wait for globex open). open of the week was 17722 and spike high was 17683 medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 18300. trade of the day: just short since EU open - 15m 20ema was resistance until the last hour and you had to get out on bar 58
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. In my weekly outlook i talked about the major trend reversal for most indexes since the bull trend is coming to an end and we are in a trading range at the highs imo. Markets are in the process of forming a top and confirmation would be lower lows by the bears now. Today was a good start. sp500 In my weekly outlook i said down then sideways, that was good for +45 bull case: Bulls bought the pullback to the bull trend line which started early 2023-12. Market has formed a triangle and bulls want to test the 1h 20ema, the bear trend line above and they need to close the bear gap to 5000, otherwise it’s a sell signal. They do stopped the bears today at 4970 and odds favor sideways here first. bear case: Bears see the lower high double top with the ath. They got their pullback to 5000 and now they want to keep the gap above open to trap late bulls. If they succeed in keeping it open and making 4995 resistance, we could easily drop to 4900 this week and maybe even 4880ish. But let’s get the first bear target and then evaluate again. short term: sideways - bulls could close the gap and trade more up to form a lower high below 5030 but i give the odds to sideways medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: selling 4990 and buying 4975 - mostly trading range price action (or a broad bear channel, it does not matter because you trade them the same) where you either stay away completely or buy low and sell high and scalp
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild. I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy. dax Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel. bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices. bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: down - nothing will change that. trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
a daily price action early hour update - usd/chfGood morning and i hope you are well. USD/CHF bull case: Bulls want the breakout of the triangle and bear channel here to test the 2023-11 and afterwards the 2023-10 high. The rally looks good enough that they can get it. Measured move target is right in between those 2 targets. If they can get the breakout, the market cycle changes from bear trend to trading range and the downside will probably be limited. Since this is a 20+ year bear channel, it has to find a bottom eventually right? bear case: Bears need to step in here to keep it inside the bear channel or the targets given above are very high probability. Since this is the third touch of the upper bear trend line, odds are not all that great to break it on the first try here. Ranging here is more probable but for that, bears need to print bear bars and right now there are none. First target for the bears is to stop the rally and then print back below 0.872. short term: odds favor sideways but rally is strong and i would not do anything here unless the bulls keep printing strong bars, then it's clearly continuation of long medium-long term: sideways. markets do not go from trend to trend, bottoms and tops are formed over a period before a new trend emerges
by priceactiontds
a daily price action early hour update - oilGood morning and i hope you are well. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls still have the 80 target in sight and they are buying all pullbacks. The uptrend is weakening but i think then can get there. The 1h 20ema is holding pretty good and we are right at it. So it's a buy. The drawn wedge could get us there but bulls have more trend lines below which can hold. Last time bulls got near 79, bears surprised and trapped many late bulls. I don't expect something different for now. Invalid below 77. bear case: Bears look at higher timeframes and it's a big trading range. We are in the upper third and they sell the highs because they made money the last times they did it. Until bulls get consecutive big bull bars above 80, odds favor a continuation of this trading range 70-80. I doubt bears will die defending 78/79 and we will probably at least reach last weeks high 77.29 or 80 before more profit taking by the bulls and shorting by the bears unfold. short term: up to 79/80 before sideways to down medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds