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a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets ranged as expected and bears could not make bulls doubt higher prices. Nasdaq was the weakest, while the dow printed new all time highs. The earnings reported after hours seem that they won’t help the bears much either. Sure, nasdaq sold off today but it’s still making higher lows and i don’t expect bears to be able to trade it below 17400 for now. gold Quote from weekly update: short term: sideways to up for touch of the upper triangle line around 2040, which continues to be heavy resistance Bulls took over since Friday and printed multiple higher highs and higher lows, yet bears sold every high aggressively. But bears need to do more to stop bulls from making higher highs. bull case: Bulls touched 2067 today which was 5 points below 2023 close. Bulls target remains the same, retest of 2023-12 high at 2152. They managed to close above the daily 20ema but the bar is not bullish due to the big tail above. Hard to make a bull case here. Daily close above 2060 would change that. bear case: Bears managed to make today’s bar look weak with a big tail above. They want to break the bull channel and trade below 2040 again. That would bring them below all of my important 20ema time frames and at some point the bulls will give up on trying to get back above 2100. The 2152 high is so far away and they tried so many times now that with every day i think the odds turn more to the bear side. short term: sideways but in a big range, probably 2040 - 2070 medium-long term: bearish odds raised imo and i want to see a daily close below 2040 first. Below 2000 turns this into always in short (full bear mode) trade of the day: keep selling new highs but buy 1h 20ema
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today markets continued the bear slaughter and given the very strong bull closes, we can expect more bullish price action and probably blow off tops. sp500 Most bullish of em all. Here my quote from yesterday: Market only gained 60 points which seems after last weeks rally of about 120 points, too little. Bulls sure tried but prices above 4900 are not eagerly bought. In my opinion it’s the strongest index this week and the one with the highest odds of printing higher to retest the ath 5028. Bull case: Market has reasonable targets above and they are in a reachable distance. Bulls saw last week as a buy signal and this week produced follow through. We closed above 4900 which is kinda bullish but not as strong as it could have been. But as long as bulls printing higher highs and higher lows, bulls have all the arguments on their side. short term: i’m neutral here because of Fridays close. both sides can get a breakout so probably sideways Do not look for shorts. Clear breakout and follow through. Bulls wont stop until we print 5000 and if they can get 5000, they retest the 5028.25. Measured move target from the rally starting bar 41 is 4998.75. Coincidence? Sure. 50% pullback is exactly the previous January high at 4934. So Probably pullback first then blow off top imo. bear case: Only if we trade back below 4913 i look for bear arguments and i can only see this happen with most big earnings tomorrow missing big time. What are the odds of that? Can’t think of anything lower probability for now. short term: maybe a pullback to 4935 but that’s probably it. just look for longs. strongly bullish. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5030 trade of the day: 4913 was strong support and we had a double bottom bar 17 + 41. Had to go long bar 42 for at least up to 4922. Was good for 40 points if you held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidiaGood morning and i hope you are well. Let's talk some Nvidia. I don't care if you are Jensen himself and think this stock is overbought. There is nothing, i repeat: nothing , bearish about this chart at all. I'm a price action trader so please keep your macro analysis to yourself. This stock is producing gaps above ath's so just don't waste brain capital on looking for shorts. I painted some long ideas and my next best guess on what bullish pattern could play out. And some have the 700 area as a target. I will always try to be a bear and look for arguments for a bear case. Looking at the chart, there is literally nothing on why you should be a bear. So i have to write something i think is mostly fairy dust. Bears could pray for "bad" earnings or at least a bad market reaction to the earnings. Even if that is what is going to happen, you should ask yourself, what are the odds that this goes from probably the most bullish stock on the planet to a stock in a bear trend? That's as low probability as it gets and you can't trade this profitably. Multiple bull trend lines, gaps and retest have to happen first, become the market is convinced that the high is clearly in. Obviously a black swan event can always happen and everything i wrote goes out the window. short term: do you really need me to say it. medium-long term: trickier, because do you want to buy into consecutive ridiculous buy climaxes? does it mean the stock will go down anytime soon? both a big no from my side so if you are not long already, you are trapped out. that's it. you need to let it go and wait for better risk:reward trades. this has nothing to do with longing this for intraday trades. Have a great sunday
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by priceactiontds
8
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood morning and i hope you are well. This week bulls took over again and nasdaq e-mini futures printed a new all time high. After last Thursday and Friday, which gave good looking buy signals, this weeks follow through was expected. As mentioned during the week, i don’t expect much higher prices and that we will form a top here before we trade down over the next months. That does not mean, that markets can’t make higher highs. I just think the probability of that is low. That’s why i started taking longer term short positions in dax and nasdaq, to which i will add higher and take profits when appropriate. dax Quote from last weeks outlook: Let’s talk bull case first: Bears could not produce lower prices or big consecutive bear days below the 20ema. Bear channel held and bulls just bough everything under 16700. Bears tried 3 times and now they will probably give up to short higher again. Thursday and Friday printed consecutive bull bars and it’s a buy signal. They want a retest of the ath or at least trade back to upper channel lines. Market did exactly that and we even broke above the bear trend line. I still think this is a trading range and two legged moves are common. We might retest the previous January high at 17123 and depending of the strength of that, could also retest the ath but i highly doubt we can break it. Highest odds for me are that this is a lower high and i just have to adjust the bear trend line. For next week i expect a weaker overall (if earnings do not surprise upwards big time) market and bears trying to print lower lows. If the bears are strong, we could trade back to the lower bear trend line at around 16200. Everything below would be a surprise, as well as prices above 17200. outlook last week: “probably up“ → good outlook, was good for 300 points short term: sideways to down medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
#202405 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil Here my commentary from last week: If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily. The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84. Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits. outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80. medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Here is a quote from my substack on Monday about oil: "Most interesting market today. I do believe its a breakout of the bear channel, beginning 2023-09, if bulls can generate follow through tomorrow/Wednesday. The trend line on higher time frames is more of an area than a narrow line with exact prices. But we are there and had a strong bull day. This could be leg 2 of a 3 legged move and a measured move target could bring us to around 80 again. That would certainly make a whole lot of bears cover and fuel the rally probably further. I’d be very cautious with shorts here and look for strength. short term: sideways to up" Being prepared pays. Daily close above 75 and market is accelerating. 80 is my next target but i don’t think we get there without a pullback first. PB could be deep to the lower bull wedge around 75.5 but if we get there, the odds that it holds are excellent. short term: very short term, sideways to down but ultimately bullish for target 80. from there i wait for market to show new impulse. medium-long term: up trade of the day: that 1h 20ema held since Wednesday before us open. look for longs.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - s&p500 e-mini futuresnot breaking down means acceptance of higher prices Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets can’t print lower lows and i will stick to my bullish thesis for another leg upwards until bears do. Another day at the highs raises the odds for the bulls, not bears. The rally looks bigger in this chart than it is, we made 26 points from the low, so don’t get too excited. I highly doubt we can break above the range that easily and expect another pullback before more up, but i do think we will print 5000 in the next 1-2 weeks. Today’s choppy price action on lower tf was a good day to look more often on higher timeframes to see the bigger picture. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: down trade of the day: long the midday low just barely above yesterdays low to make 25 points. could have been that easy but the lower tf price action was nasty
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. After such strong rallies, markets tends to form trading ranges instead of another trend in whatever direction. So today, we chopped back and forth. Which is bad for the bears because that means acceptance of higher prices. Only question is then, how high? Most indexes have obvious targets above, which i gave in my weekly outlook. I also said market is currently bullish and today further confirmed my thesis. dax Dax is inside a big triangle from the recent bull trend and the upper bear channel visible on the daily chart. Today was uneventful since we close 9 points above the open price. The tricky thing on a day like today is, that the 2 to 3 legged moves inside the range look strong with good looking signal bars that just turn around at support & resistance, tricking traders into believing a breakout is about to happen. That’s just something will learn to read with hard earned experience. Nothing else. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: down trade of the day: short from the open to globex gap close and test of fridays open and the long above bar 55 to todays open price. that could have been 150-200 points
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
dax - a weekly priceaction recap and outlookGood evening and welcome to the 2024 early bull games. Something like that bears must have felt thursday and friday. S&P500 & Nasdaq futures are breaking out big time and are on their way printing new all time highs. That being said i still think the moves are part of their respective monthly trading ranges and we won’t trade far above. dax cfd Dax was early with the consecutive new ath’s and is now lagging a bit behind the bullish price action on us indices. So the biggest question into next week is, will we break above the smaller bear channel and join the us rally or are dax bulls done and every rip get’s sold? We had 3 legs down inside the bear channel, broke out of the triangle to the downside but bulls closed at the friday highs and above the daily 20ema. For me to complete this market cycle (trading range after the big rally from october), would be another touch of the upper bear channel. Which one? Doesn’t matter but i think the higher one around 16970ish will get touched or broken. Why? Let’s talk bull case first: Bears could not produce lower prices or big consecutive bear days below the 20ema. Bear channel held and bulls just bough everything under 16700. Bears tried 3 times and now they will probably give up to short higher again. Thursday and friday printed consecutive bull bars and it’s a buy signal. They want a retest of the ath or at least trade back to upper channel lines. Bear case: The ath at 17199.5 was done with a big gap up and the daily closed deeply red. Since then every attemp at 17000 was rejected. Not really surprising after printing multiple new ath’s in the last weeks. Bears see the the break below the triangle as confirmation for lower prices and thursday + friday as a retest of that breakout. They do not want the market to close above the smaller bear channel line around 16800 otherwise bulls will see this as a buy signal. outlook last week: sideways - good outlook since we closed a bit below last week short term: probably up but just slighty in my odds. if friday was a bull trap and bears can get strong selling pressure, i look for shorts. but i would also not be surprised if we close monday above 17000. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-01-18 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you had a good trading day. Bulls took over in the globex session and we never looked back. Yesterday i said in my short term outlook that we go up and we did. nasdaq e-mini futures Most bullish indix of em all. Many of the same as dax for today. Nq just reached higher prices. We are trading 38 points below the december high and i think we will get there. Can we touch the big upper wedge? Probably. Bull case is the 400 point rally from the weekly low yesterday which could easily go to the wedge line around 17250. Bulls even bought the 160 point dip midday to close at the highs. Bear case is that this is a trading range from 16950 to 17120. The selloff from bar 43 to 50 was deep enough to dampen the euphoric rally. We are also at the highs of the wedge on the daily tf. They also argue that this is a trading range inside a bigger one between 16450 to 17130. So the question is, how much more room is there for the bulls despite the selling pressure? I think the most reasonable case is, that above 17100 there were many trapped bulls from the december high who will gladly use this rally to exit out of their longs and that’s another reason why i think the upside is limited. But i also thought NVIDIA at 400$ was high enough, so bulls might just continue to dance until the music stops. short term: sideways to down (weakly held and i will long on big bull bars) medium-long term: big down New swing short position opened for nasdaq. I think shorting above 17000 on higher timeframes is a no brainer.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-01-18 - dax price action update Good Morning, i could see dax breaking out of this bull channel to rally upwards. I'd look only for longs here. Here is my recap from yesterday after hours to give more context: Let’s look at the 1h tf because today closed 10 points above the opening price. That tell’s you enough. Opex sold off 100 points to eu open and bulls could not get this above 16560. Bears tried multiple times to push this below 16500 but every attempt was bought. One side tries to push the market into a direction just so many times before they give up. This brings us to an adjusted big lower bear channel line so market is free to move up imo. We will trade sideways to up in the globex session which would bring the 1h 20ema closer or we can get above it. More reasons why we market could go up. Bar 10 + 16 today formed a double bottom and bar 16 + 19 could already have set the new bull channel upwards. If you look at the daily chart, you can clearly see 3 pushes down and an expanding triangle. Lows from 2023-12-18 + 2024-01-05 + 2024-01-17. Do i have a short term bear case? Not really, i think the odds that we break below that channel and close low are below 25%. short term: up medium-long term: down
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-01-17 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you are well. We continue the big downs and big ups. Both sides can make money yet bears manage to make lower lows and lower highs. nasdaq e-mini futures Tricky. Bears making new lows but bulls buying it all and closing at the highs. Yet they did not manage to trade above yesterdays open and the globex high. I do think the move from 16689 up was strong enough to get a measured move to around 17000 but bulls first target tomorrow is 1h close above 16900. We clearly broke above of the triangle and the tight new bull channel could get us above 16900. Bears see it as a two legged move inside a broad bear channel. They will try to keep it under 16900 and close the week below 16700 or maybe even touch the lower bull wedge line from early december + early january at around 16600. That beeing said. Bears still can not close below the daily 20ema which is bullish. Bulls want a retest of the december high at 17165 and keep the big bull wedge alive. short term: sideways but can break out both ways again. we currently go up and down almost every day medium-long term: down
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Bitcoin 2023 nding WaysAs of now, Bitcoin is priced at $42,815, accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume of $24 billion. Its market capitalization stands at $843 billion, commanding 54% of the market share. In the past 24 hours, BTC has encountered a 0.96% decrease in price. With a circulating supply of 19.46 million BTC out of a maximum possible supply of 21 million BTC. Bitcoin's recent attempt to breach the $44,000 resistance faced selling pressure, triggering a decline in its value. Currently, resistance is noted at $44,982, while support for BTC/USD is established at $41,784. The analysis for December 26 indicates that bears have initiated a robust selling pressure, eroding buyer confidence around the $44,000 mark. Consequently, BTC is experiencing a significant decline, setting the stage for a downward correction. Examining the 1-day chart reveals a diminishing buying demand for Bitcoin as it grapples with this decline in value. Bio for more..................
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IPatrice
Axis Bank Simple Price Action Analysis BullishNSE:AXISBANK is in an Uptrend making continuous HHs and HLs in the Candlestick Chart. With these HH and HL, the price has created two Bullish Patterns in this Chart: A Cup and Handle Pattern which is a Continuation Pattern, and a Right-Angled Descending Broadening Triangle. We also have a few Trap Zones in this chart; hence my expectation is that the Price of Axis Bank should go up and make another HH. Looking at a Target of 164 that is approx. 12% Return on Investment.
NSE:AXISBANKLong
by priceissupreme