Adobe - Triangle Textbook Long Setup!Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) is breaking out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating a rally of +2.000% over the past decade, Adobe created its all time high back in the end of 2021. The consolidation ever since has been quite expected, especially looking at market structure. But if Adobe breaks out of the current triangle, we will see new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $440, $560
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
ADBE
Is AI the New Muse for the Digital Renaissance?In a groundbreaking showcase at Adobe MAX 2024, the creative software giant unveiled its latest innovation: Adobe Firefly AI. This cutting-edge technology promises to revolutionize content creation across various media, from video production to 3D art. The star of the show, Firefly AI Video, demonstrates the potential to generate and manipulate video content with unprecedented ease and accuracy, potentially reshaping the entire landscape of digital creativity.
Adobe's commitment to ethical AI use and copyright protection sets a new standard in the industry, addressing concerns about the responsible implementation of AI in creative fields. By positioning Firefly AI as safe for commercial use, Adobe is paving the way for the widespread adoption of AI-powered tools in professional settings. This approach not only drives innovation but also ensures that creators can embrace new technologies without compromising their integrity or legal standing.
The market's positive response to Adobe's AI push, reflected in a 2.9% stock surge, underscores the transformative potential of these technologies. As Adobe integrates Firefly AI across its Creative Cloud suite and introduces new tools like Neo for 3D art creation, the company is democratizing access to advanced creative capabilities. This shift challenges creators to reimagine their processes and pushes the boundaries of what's possible in digital content creation.
650, BE THEREThis has the upside potential to be 650, before that happens it could dip towards 450 which will be a big buying opportunity. Whether it hits 450 or not, most likely it will test its all-time highs which is 30% upside potential from current price.
Happy Trading!! Not a financial advice.
Adobe Shares (NASDAQ: $ADBE) Plunge on Disappointing OutlookAdobe Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ADBE ) shares tumbled more than 9% in extended trading after the company released a disappointing outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter, overshadowing its strong third-quarter performance. Despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue, the lackluster guidance raised concerns among investors about Adobe’s near-term growth prospects.
The San Jose-based software giant, renowned for its Creative Cloud and other digital media services, posted third-quarter revenue of $5.41 billion, marking an 11% increase year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.76, exceeding the $3.05 reported in the same quarter last year. However, Adobe’s projection of fourth-quarter revenue between $5.50 billion and $5.55 billion fell short of analysts' estimates. The company also expects diluted EPS of $3.58 to $3.63, lower than Wall Street's anticipated range.
Despite the record net-new annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $504 million from its Digital Media segment, Adobe’s cautious outlook reflects ongoing concerns about economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and cautious enterprise spending.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Adobe's stock price has been under pressure, reflecting broader market concerns. The shares are currently poised to break down below the lower trendline of an ascending triangle pattern—a bearish signal that could indicate further declines.
Here are the critical technical levels to monitor:
1. $500 Level: This is a crucial support zone that coincides with a psychological round number and aligns with multiple peaks and troughs from June 2023 to August 2024. A breakdown below this level could signal a shift in investor sentiment, paving the way for further declines.
2. $435 Support: A drop to this area could present a buying opportunity as it corresponds with a pre-gap consolidation zone during a significant uptrend observed between May and June 2023. This level also aligns closely with a swing low from May 2024, adding to its significance as a potential support point.
3. $386 Level: The next lower support sits at $386, where the stock could encounter buying interest near several historical peaks that formed from early February to late April last year. A failure to hold this level could set the stage for a deeper correction.
Resistance to Watch
On the upside, the key resistance level to watch is $550. If Adobe shares attempt a countertrend move, they may face selling pressure around this level, which represents a retest of the ascending channel’s lower trendline.
AI Innovations Yet to Prove Lucrative
Adobe has been at the forefront of integrating AI into its suite of products, including popular tools like Photoshop and Illustrator. The company has embedded its proprietary Firefly technology into these applications, aiming to enhance user experience and drive value. However, investors remain skeptical about Adobe's ability to monetize these AI advancements, particularly amid rising competition from nimble startups and rival firms like Salesforce and Workday.
On a recent earnings call, Adobe’s management emphasized their focus on enhancing customer engagement with AI tools rather than directly monetizing them. CEO Shantanu Narayen highlighted the potential for new content types, such as video, to open additional revenue streams in the future. However, the market's appetite for immediate returns and tangible financial impacts from AI innovations remains unfulfilled, contributing to the negative sentiment.
A Potential Shift to Bearish Momentum
Adobe's recent chart activity reveals a troubling pattern, with the stock price sitting at a precarious position just above key support levels. The 50-day moving average recently crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a golden cross, a traditionally bullish signal. However, the failure to hold above the ascending triangle’s lower trendline suggests that this bullish momentum could be fading.
The stock’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 60.95 indicates that while it is not yet in oversold territory, there is ample room for further downside. Should the stock break below the critical $435 support pivot, it may trigger a wave of bearish sentiment, potentially leading to a broader sell-off.
Conclusion
Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ADBE ) faces a challenging landscape as it navigates economic headwinds and investor expectations for its AI-driven future. With critical support levels under threat, the technical picture suggests caution. Investors should remain vigilant, especially with the stock approaching key pivot points that could determine its near-term trajectory. While Adobe’s innovative product suite continues to perform, the market’s immediate focus will likely remain on whether the company can turn its AI ambitions into concrete financial gains, making it a stock to watch closely in the coming months.
Looking for a short swing on ADBE. We are forming a double top.🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
ADBE 9-EMA Dip BuyIn this video I go over the Adobe Stock coming back to the 9 Emma moving average. I'm looking for the price to come back a little bit and close just below or on the 9 EMA and then as soon as Thursday or Friday happens, I want to see the price go back above the 9 EMA and then buy to enter the position long. Adobe is considering a mega cap, and the mega caps are getting all the attention right now so make sure that if you play any large caps or mid-caps that you have a lot of conviction. Please realize that the money has not been flowing into large or mid cap stocks for quite some time so that's why I am focusing on the Mega CAPS.
Adobe's Stock Surges Approximately 15% After Report PublicationAdobe's Stock Surges Approximately 15% After Report Publication
On June 5th in the article "Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?", we highlighted several bullish signs, suggesting that the report published on June 13th could be a driver for a resumption of the uptrend.
Adobe's report released on June 13th proved to be strong:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $4.48, Forecast = $4.39;
→ Revenue: Actual = $5.309 billion, Forecast = $5.291 billion. A 10% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Furthermore, the company stated that:
→ AI is more of an advantage than a hindrance to business development;
→ “We’re seeing early success monetizing new AI technologies across our Digital Media and Digital Experience businesses,” said Shantanu Narayen, Adobe's CEO.
Technical analysis of Adobe's stock shows that:
→ The price has returned to an upward channel (shown in blue) starting from 2023;
→ The price broke a descending formation (shown with red lines), potentially marking a significant correction from point A to point B by approximately 50%;
→ The price surpassed the psychological mark of $500 per share;
→ The price is in the area of the bearish gap from March 15th, which may act as resistance.
Although the RSI indicator on the daily chart of Adobe's stock was in oversold territory at the end of May, today it indicates overbought conditions. There is a possibility that a correction may follow the sharp change in market sentiment, associated with a more thorough evaluation of Adobe's stock prospects.
In such a scenario, support for Adobe's stock price may come from:
→ The psychological level at $500;
→ The lower boundary of the channel;
→ Former resistance at $494.
According to TipRanks, the average price target for Adobe's stock is $613 in 12 months, indicating a growth potential of +16% from current levels.
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Adobe (ADBE): Earnings Report to Trigger Major Move?With Adobe's earnings report due tomorrow, we have analyzed the weekly chart to get a clearer picture. We started our count in November 2018, identifying the sub-waves 1 and 2 leading up to the primary Wave (1). This Wave (1), like the preceding sub-waves, experienced a very rapid sell-off. Such quick declines are unusual for Wave 2s, but in this chart, it repeats frequently, confirming our interpretation despite being atypical.
We have now identified the sub-wave 1 of the overarching Wave (3). This range and its midpoint have been well respected, and we are currently at the midpoint.
Two scenarios could unfold:
• Negative Earnings Report : If the earnings report disappoints, the price could fall into the Weekly Order Block Cluster around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately $350. This would likely result in a significant pullback within the range.
• Positive Earnings Report : If the earnings report is strong, the price could shoot up, creating a breakout gap. After this initial surge, we might see a retrace back towards the midpoint of the range before continuing upwards to potentially make a new high above $700.
Given the uncertainty, we are not placing any entries at this time. We will wait to see how the earnings report affects the price action and then consider potential positions based on the developments.
Adobe, a beast hiding in plain sight! Adobe Inc. (ADBE) on the 1-hour chart illustrates a recent decline from a swing high, followed by a recovery forming a harmonic pattern labeled with points A, B, C, D, and E.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels are highlighted, including the 0.618 level at 455.67 and the 0.5 level at 451.53, along with Fibonacci extension levels at 1 (469.07) and 1.23 (477.14).
The chart features a Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) line from the previous month's swing high, which may act as a dynamic resistance around the 469.07 level.
Volume analysis reveals lower recent activity compared to previous spikes, indicating a possible consolidation phase.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently reads around 53.78, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish momentum. Key support levels are identified at 433.97, with resistance levels at 469.07 and 477.14.
The harmonic pattern suggests a potential bullish scenario if the price moves beyond 469.07 towards 477.14, while the downside risk includes a possible drop to support levels at 455.67 or 451.53 if the price fails to sustain current levels.
Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?
The stock chart for Adobe Systems shows that on May 31, 2024, the price fell below $440 – for the first time since June 2023. This drop was partly due to increased competition from Canva, which released updated tools.
However, in early June, the decline did not continue, suggesting that ADBE stock is consolidating around a multi-month low.
Since the beginning of the year, ADBE has decreased by approximately 23%, while the NASDAQ index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has increased by more than 12%. Is this indicative of serious problems for the company or is the stock undervalued?
A significant amount of information will come from Adobe Systems' earnings report, which will be released on June 13, 2024. According to Yahoo Finance.
The company's earnings per share are forecasted to be $4.38, representing a 12.02% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Revenue is forecasted at $5.28 billion, a 9.65% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
It is noteworthy that since December 2018, Adobe has consistently exceeded expectations (though this has not always led to a rise in the stock price).
According to TipRanks, the average price target for ADBE stock is $624.83 over the next 12 months, indicating a potential upside of +39.36% from current levels – suggesting that most analysts do not believe the company has deep internal issues, as otherwise they would not be forecasting such price growth.
Technical analysis of ADBE’s daily chart shows that the price action is forming an uptrend (indicated in blue). The price is near the lower boundary of this trend, and:
→ The current price is near the 50% retracement level of the A→B growth wave;
→ The current price has closed last year’s bullish gap.
Therefore, the release of the earnings report on June 13 could be a catalyst that helps bulls resume the uptrend and push the price towards the levels indicated by analysts.
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Adobe (ADBE) WaterfallI think Adobe, which has lost more than 32% since the beginning of the year, has a fair value of $522.30. However, as long as the decline continues, we should wait to buy. You can't hold a falling knife. With a break of the moving average or downtrend, I think it will reach its fair value, and with momentum, it may even go up to $620, which is the long-term downtrend. Unless the trend breaks, the decline will continue until the 300s.
Natural Gas falling sharply! Profits Secured! Natural Gas has lost over 15% of the recent rally.
Pulling back today with the market, this commodity is now coming into an area for potential dip buyers.
Will the 200 MA hold firm?
Nat gas equities are holding relative strength despite the sell side pressure.
2 key trend channels of support are observed.
Profits secured on KOLD
📈💼 Adobe (ADBE) Analysis 🖥️🚀Revenue Evolution:
Adobe's NASDAQ:ADBE transition to subscription-based revenue has been a key driver of its growth and profitability, with subscriptions dominating recent sales. This adaptability has been crucial during the pandemic and subsequent rebound, showcasing its resilience and ability to capitalize on emerging trends like AI.
Market Sentiment and Correction:
A correction in Adobe's stock price in 2024, influenced by the AI bubble and profit-taking, reflects market sentiment. Analysts suggest this correction may have been an overreaction, potentially leading to overselling. Despite adjustments to price targets, significant upside potential is still anticipated, with consensus targets implying a 30% increase from current levels.
Long-Term Outlook:
Considering global industry trends, including the receding AI bubble, Adobe's diversified portfolio and ongoing innovation in digital content creation position it favorably for sustained growth.
📊💡 Stay informed about industry trends and monitor Adobe's performance for investment decisions! #Adobe #StockAnalysis 📉📈
Adobe - Pretty clear trading setup!Hello Traders and Investors, in this video I will take a quick look at Adobe.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2012 we saw a major symmerical triangle breakout on Adobe stock which was followed by an unbelievable rally of +2.000% towards the upside. Over the past 6 years, Adobe stock has once again formed a triangle formation and just rejected the upper resistance level. If Adobe stock retest the next horizontal support towards the downside, we could already see a bullish reversal there.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Adobe Explores OpenAI Partnership to Aid Video Editing ToolsAdobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ), the software giant known for its innovative tools in creative content production, is delving deeper into the realm of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its renowned Premiere Pro video editing software. In a strategic move, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) is exploring a potential partnership with OpenAI and other third-party AI developers to integrate generative AI tools directly into Premiere Pro.
This development marks a significant step forward for Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) as it seeks to empower video editors with AI-based features that streamline complex tasks and enhance creative possibilities. Among the planned AI-based features are the ability to seamlessly fill in parts of a scene with AI-generated objects and remove distractions without manual intervention, revolutionizing the video editing process.
At the heart of Adobe's AI endeavors lies Firefly, a powerful AI model already deployed in Adobe Photoshop for editing still images. By extending Firefly's capabilities to Premiere Pro and exploring partnerships with leading AI developers like OpenAI, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) aims to bolster its position as an industry leader in AI-driven creative tools.
However, Adobe's decision to embrace third-party AI tools also raises questions about revenue sharing and ethical considerations. While Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) is committed to upholding ethical AI practices and ensuring user safety, the integration of third-party AI models introduces complexities regarding revenue sharing and accountability.
Despite these challenges, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) remains steadfast in its commitment to providing users with innovative AI-driven solutions while maintaining transparency and ethical standards. With the potential for expanded choice and functionality through third-party AI models, Adobe users can expect a new era of creativity and efficiency in video editing.
Technical Outlook
Adobe Inc. stock ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) has a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 28.73. However, the Monthly price chart of the stock shows an inverted hammer forming at the close of last week's trading session.
ADBE at Volume Profile NodeThis morning NASDAQ:ADBE triggered a Spike Alert on the opening 30 minute bar. I double checked this signal against Volume Profile.
On the weekly there is a major Volume Profile node at 480 considering the bullish trend from September 2022 to January 2024. The spike this morning touches this level and have moved off with a significant Spike:
The Spike allows me to start a trade on the 30 minute timeframe with low risk and a 3:1 Reward/Risk ratio with the intent to play the higher timeframe Weekly move as a major pullback.
If we increase the time considered the Volume Profile node becomes even more significant as the POC (Point of Control) for the price action going all the way back to COVID low.
ADBE potential buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price bounced from support
- Gap down after positive earnings most likely would be filled
- Bullish divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 521.19
Stop Loss Level: 481.40
Take Profit Level 1: 560.98
Take Profit Level 2: Open
ADBE Adobe Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ADBE:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADBE Adobe prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $27.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ADBE Strong Selloff and Potential Buy OpportunityNASDAQ:ADBE met earnings expectations yesterday, but set low guidance for 2024. ADBE is having a strong selloff from this low guidance, and this selloff is taking place near previous all time highs. I think ADBE is a very bullish stock, and I am interested in buying this dip. I'm thinking there will be a buy opportunity below $480 and will track ADBE to look for a setup. More downside is likely for now.
Adobe Tumbles Amidst AI Struggles and Fierce CompetitionAdobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ), the pioneering force behind creative software solutions like Photoshop, faced a significant setback as its stock plummeted by 12% following a disappointing quarterly forecast. This downturn, fueled by fears of intensified competition and concerns over Adobe's ability to capitalize on generative AI integrations, underscored the challenges ahead for the tech giant.
In the ever-evolving landscape of tech, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) stands alongside industry heavyweights like Microsoft and Google, each vying for supremacy in AI innovation. However, Adobe's recent stumble has raised doubts about its capacity to effectively monetize AI features across its creative suite, leaving investors wary of its future prospects.
Compounding the pressure are the emergence of AI startups such as Stability AI and Midjourney, poised to disrupt Adobe's longstanding dominance in the graphics industry. Analysts from RBC Capital Markets highlighted investor apprehension regarding the "GenAI upside," reflecting concerns about Adobe's ability to leverage AI for sustained growth and profitability.
Despite forecasting $440 million in net new annual recurring revenue for its digital media segment, a decrease from the previous year's figures, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) failed to meet market expectations. CEO Shantanu Narayen acknowledged the disparity between projections and actual performance, citing potentially inflated forecasts for the second quarter.
The fallout from Adobe's lackluster forecast extended beyond financial metrics, potentially erasing over $30 billion of the company's market value. Despite experiencing a remarkable 77% surge in 2023, Adobe's shares have faltered by 4% this year, highlighting investor uncertainty amidst conflicting signals from the company.
Analysts from Piper Sandler highlighted the challenge of deciphering Adobe's messaging, noting the company's ongoing efforts to monetize AI across its platforms. Despite these challenges, Adobe's decision to announce a $25 billion stock buyback signals confidence in its long-term strategy, following regulatory setbacks in its attempt to acquire Figma.
However, Adobe's ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) stock valuation, trading at 30.41 times its forward profit estimates compared to industry peers like Microsoft and Salesforce, raises questions about its competitive positioning. As Adobe navigates the competitive landscape and grapples with AI integration challenges, the road ahead remains uncertain.