Adobe: in watchlist for next week.270-272 is a resistance level: my forecast is that adobe will not breach this area today 2018-09-14.
I'll add ADBE in my watchlist for next week because, after a retracement (down from overbought area of stochastic), will go long and will break the resistance area 270-272.
ADBE
Selling Adobe sharesAt the hourly chart of ADBE, the price is in a corrective wave after a bearish impulse, as it had recently rebounded from the 61.8 Fibo level. Also, a sell signal was formed in a form of the latest fractal. Breakdown of its level would be an optimal level to open short with SL at the peaks of the correction.
$ADBE Adobe Continued Ascension$ADBE Adobe looking like a solid buy after tagging the lower trend line yesterday (while holding the 50d ema) of a tight bullish channel it's been riding since late 2017. RSI has not dropped below 40 this year and reversed off that level today. Adobe is a solid company with a great track record of earnings beats. Two possible trade targets below.
Short term target - $258.90 (previous ATH)
Medium term target - $270.00 (upper channel limit)
Note: Observation/opinion, not investment advice.
[MSFT] Strong Tech Stock Looking to break Resistance at ATH!Similar breakout setup to CSCO and ADBE.
Adobe's leading out of the triangle, I suspect both MSFT and CSCO are gonna follow suit in strong way.
MSFT's an all around solid company, not much to say other than they have huge influence on the sector and aren't failing to innovate. Azure Cloud platform is challenging Bezos' cloud at AMZN, the Windows OS will be fueling growth for a long long time, and they're always getting into new areas of expansion by building on top of the core Windows products.
Adobe ADBE slowstochastic is coming up!Adobe ADBE slowstoch is coming out the 20 zone.
Title is coming from a 6 consecutive loosing days and slowstochastic crossing above 20 could be a good signal of reversing.
Stock strenght is above 63.
Watch the stock and lets see on lower timeframes if there is a entry signal (may be 212 to 212.24).
If today the stock makes a PBT&CA at 212.24 that is my entry point!
Disclaimer:
This is just my tought: don't invest based on this idea.
ADBE 10-Day-Ahead Prediction - 04/02-04/13 PeriodAI/Deep Learning Enabled 10 Day Ahead Predicted values for Adobe Systems Inc - ADBE have been plotted on the chart.
The method used in this prediction is Deep Learning based, and using complex mathematical models to extract hidden time series features in vast amounts of ADBE related data.
The expected 5 Day Change is 1.8900 %
The expected 10 Day Change is 2.9667 %
Predictability Indicator is calculated as : 0.823
Predicted 10-Day Ahead Prices are as follows:
Mon Apr 02 Tue Apr 03 Wed Apr 04 Thu Apr 05 Fri Apr 06
218.33 218.97 219.16 219.56 220.16
Mon Apr 09 Tue Apr 10 Wed Apr 11 Thu Apr 12 Fri Apr 13
220.81 221.36 221.78 222.14 222.49
Please note that outliers/non-linearities might occur, however our AI Enabled predictions indicate the softened/smoothed moving direction of the stocks/commodities/World indices/ETFs/Foreign Currencies/Cryptocurrencies.
QQQ in troubleAfter forming an island reversal last week, complete with a massive bearish engulfing candle off of all time highs, the break below the trend line support and 20dsma seemed fitting. Today's action was bearish, as volumes were subdued relative to recent down days. This suggest that few participants are eager to defend prices in a significant way and bid the market higher, so it seems bears have taken control of this market. I'm a seller, especially specific names heavily weighted in the index. I closed TWTR short today after huge success, added to NFLX short, initiated ADBE and FDX short, stood still on my TSLA short, and opened a deep OTM FB long put after noticing unusually high volume at the April 115/120 strikes (several spreads, buying the 120's and selling 115's and massive volume relative to open interest). I also took a flyer on ORCL, buying April calls for a bounce, as this selloff seems overdone.
Bottom line... Watch out below!
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, OIH, XOP, GDXJ, EWZ, VIXWith the VIX dropping hard below 15, some of the juice has poured out of the cup ... . Even so, there remain a few plays in the market.
ADBE announces earnings on the 15th (Thursday) after market close. The volatility metrics don't quite meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play (56/32), but the March 23rd 210/323.5 short strangle is paying 3.80 at the mid with that setup's defined risk counterpart, the 205/210/232.5/237.5 iron condor, paying 1.69, just a smidge over one-third the width of the wings. These are off hours quotes, so neither of these may look as attractive during regular market hours when things tighten up. Nevertheless, worth keeping an eyeball on.
The remainder of earnings announcements on tap for next week either involve poor liquidity underlyings or have implied volatility in the lower half of their 52-week range, making them singularly unattractive for the standard play.
In the exchange-traded fund neck of the woods, OIH and XOP retain fairly decent background implied volatility at 31, as does the junior gold miners fund, GDXJ. My preference is to pull the trigger on these underlyings directionally. With GDXJ, I would like slightly lower (sub-30 would be great). A touch of caution is warranted, however, since there is a bit of divergence between gold spot prices and both GDX and GDXJ, implying that if gold goes lower here (it's got room), the miners will weaken even further, so trade these small in the event that support terms out to be meaningless (i.e., you're dead ass wrong as to direction).
As far as "the Brazilian" (EWZ) is concerned, the April 20th 43/49 (40 days until expiry) short strangle is paying 1.25 at the mid; it isn't hugely compelling, but it's a sub-$50 underlying after all. If you're going to pull the trigger on that setup, however, I'd do it soon, since we're quickly getting outside the 45-day sweet spot.
VIX futures term structure has finally returned to a modest degree of normalcy, with contracts in contango front to back. I'm still waiting for a few UVXY short call verts to pull off here that I put on in the hot and heavy of early Feb, so am going to hand sit until I'm able to quit sweating over those. The forecast, however, is for contango erosion/beta slippage to resume (it already has) in UVXY and VXX, implying that they will continue to pretty much go down from here over time (naturally, in the absence of another pop).
Sep 20 Earnings: Adobe's Competition and Expenses are burning.Adobe is a wonderful company with a great array of products and services. The company has been gaining traction with its cloud offerings allowing for the conversion of enterprise customers to Enterprise Term License Agreements (ETLAs), resulting in higher Creative Cloud adoption.
However, with great power comes great responsibility, and Adobe's expenses have been on the move with its foray into AI and Virtual Reality.
A pullback on behalf of higher expenses and guidance becoming slightly more conservative over the longer run is warranted.
I believe the stock's price is not currently pricing in the company's competition and expenses.
A short term sell with a $145 to $140 PT for the next 2-3 months.
Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity?
Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94. The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services. The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS.
But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal. Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities. This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run.
If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style.
1) Short the stock
Entry: any price today
Stop: $130.31 on market close
Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over
2) Credit Spread
Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike
Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike
Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment
3) Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade
Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike
Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company.
Until our next article.