Dynex - where to next?Thanks for viewing,
Wow, some interesting keywords in their business description;
- LEVERAGED buyer of CMBS products (as you know, leverage works both ways. To juice gains or to ensure out-sized losses),
- ADJUSTABLE-RATE mortgages (I suppose not so bad - unless interest rates increase which to be fair seems unlikely right now),
- office buildings, retail, hospitality, and healthcare (all sectors hit super hard by the current health crisis. Healthcare because everyone is cancelling elective procedures - where all the money is made).
Default rates of CMBS products above 10% in June 2020 www.cpexecutive.com but have reduced somewhat in the 2 months following. I'm sure that is good news - unless the reduction was due to "forbearance" - when banks just allow a break in payments of overdue accounts (no chance of a debt default if you don't call in your debts). Around half of the increase from ~2 to over 10% delinquency was from mortgages over 90 days overdue and at least part of the decline was due to banks deciding not to require payments (for some undetermined amount of time).
Its like 2009 again - just replace CDO with CMBS and residential with commercial property. Asset backed securities are great - unless the value of the underlying asset declines significantly - which it has.
I don't know where it will go, up down or sideways All I know is it is in a down-trend and the return in no way reflects the massive risk. It seems tailor made to get flattened by the current environment..
AVOID AVOID AVOID. Or buy, its up to you. Maybe the Fed will bail it out.
Adjustable
BULLISH CONTINUATION PATTERN SPOTTED IN NINJANINJA ALREADY FORMED a bullish continuation pattern as we can see today there's a descending broadening wedge (DBW). Some people may assume that the DBW is a part of CUP AND HANDLE pattern, nothing wrong about it.
THE SPECULATIVE setup would be around 50% Fibonacci Retracements measured from latest Swing Low to the current High (I assume it gonna form a swing as the price already hit the resistance area). We can wait for a resistance breakout too as its confirms the DBW pattern.
THERE'S ONLY TINY SPACE ON LOONIECOMPARED TO ANOTHER pair, the range on LOONIE is not really interesting. It's likely form a rectangle pattern and I assume the next move will be down as shown on the weekly chart that the rectangle is formed below EMA's.
The price will likely make a pullback before the price continue drop, even though the range is not really appealing but the movement is pretty clear for me.
XAU/USD IS LIKELY FORM AN A-B-C CORRECTIONON THE DAILY CHART, we can see that has a chance to forming an A-B-C Correction in a descending channel. The current count is assumed by 5-3-3 corrective wave. The support area were assumed with Fibbonacci retracements.
The wave count (up and down) were based on Gann time Projection and could be adjusted if the price movement didn't respect the common time ratio of XAU/USD
IS BEARISH CORRECTION ON GBP/USD GONNA FORM A HARMONIC PATTERN?STERLING MAKE A MASSIVE MOVEMENT LAST FRIDAY
Not just on GBP/USD, all GBP is going stronger that maybe not many people can expect it (except who used an Elliott Wave Count). The movement is really crazy and it's flying right to the 200 EMA's. Some people knew that 200 EMA's has a function like a dynamic Fibonacci as it be a support resistance levels too.
I ASSUME that GBP/USD will make a huge corrective movements and forming a bullish harmonic pattern in Week III and IV OCT 2019.
Configurability of StrategiesHi all, I am new to the site, new to Pine as well, so I am still just learning the language, but I was wondering how everyone feels about tuning strategies for specific symbols...fun and useful, or boring and inapplicable to future performance?
Anyway, I won't link it here (not sure about rules), but I just finished my first strategy while learning the language last night, and I thought I would share just the configurability aspect of it here to see what the community prefers:
s17.postimg.org
Anyway, I added the following, within the strategy settings:
Specify the year, month, and day of month to begin backtesting trades.
Choose whether to allow short positions.
Choose whether to allow long positions.
Choose whether to use trend detection entrances.
Choose whether to use range prediction entrances.
Choose whether to include profit targets in the exits.
Choose whether to include stops in the exits.
Choose whether to use certain close conditions, in addition to the exit conditions for profits/stops.
Specify the profit targets, in percent, separately for long and short positions (if used).
Specify the tightness/looseness of stops, one for each of the four possible stops (trend/range and long/short).
Specify the amount of starting capital, which changes maximum drawdown.
Specify the quantity of shares to purchase per order...I tried doing more here, but could not get my idea to compile.
Specify inputs to the standard indicators I used--ADX/DI and a couple moving averages.
What do you think? Even if it was a waste of time, I still had fun setting it up, and it was a nice introduction to using Pine, which I am very much enjoying.
Thanks!
Lemrin