ADBE near Confluence Support - 33% ROI PossibleNASDAQ:ADBE is currently nearing a confluence support (an area where multiple support elements are combined) at around $410-$420. Nevertheless, opening a first position right now is already an option given the attractive valuation and the horizontal support (blue zone). In addition there are two big daily gaps (red zones) above the current price giving us some potential pulling factor towards $580. The trendline you can see is very weak and has only two real re-tests in October 2022. So, take that with a grain of salt and try to concentrate more on the horizontal support and the $410-$420 area (61.8 fib).
Looking at fundamentals (I know most of you are not really interested in such things, but they do help with swing trades) we can see a price-to-sales ratio of 9.xx suggesting upside of 50% when comparing it to the long-term average of 14.xx. ARR increased 23% YoY to $3.48B. In terms of AI, firefly generated more than 16 billion assets so far, and FY24 revenue increased by a little more than 11% to $21.51B. Current PE ratio is just short of 22.
So, adding here and more towards that $410 will give us a huge potential ROI over the next couple of months.
Support Zones
$440
$410-420
Targe Zones
$540
$580-600
Adobe
Adobe (ADBE): Patience Pays Off After 35% RallyFollowing our last analysis of Adobe (ADBE), the stock saw a 35% rally from June to September, only to flush back to our preferred range—a clear reminder of the importance of considering the bigger picture rather than chasing every setup. Six months later, Adobe now trades below our initial analysis levels, reinforcing the value of patience. Currently, the stock has tagged the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, showing a promising reaction. However, reclaiming and flipping the key resistance at $446 with strong momentum is crucial. If this level is reclaimed, we will look for a pullback to bid at this key zone.
Should Adobe fail to reclaim $446, another drop toward the $386–$350 support range becomes highly likely. As such, we are not rushing into long positions for the sake of being positioned.
On the fundamental side, Adobe faces critical challenges as investors question its ability to monetize new AI features and fend off competition from emerging startups. These factors will play a key role in shaping the company’s outlook. For now, we remain patient, watching for clear rejections or reclaiming of the key levels.
Key Resistance: $446
Key Support: $386–$350
Adobe: In Our Target Zone!The ADBE stock has continued its downward movement, heading directly toward the center of our beige Target Zone (coordinates: $449.61 – $331.93). With this range now reached, the minimum requirement for the ongoing correction has been met. However, our primary expectation remains that the price will engage more extensively within our Zone, as we anticipate the bottom of the beige wave x to form deeper within it. Once the low is established, we expect the subsequent wave y to resume the upward trend and surpass the resistance at $640. There, the larger blue wave (b) should be completed as well.
Adobe Inc. (For Study Purpose Only)Buy Recommendation
Entry Price Range: $468 - $480
Stop Loss: $430
Target Price: Based on your analysis or risk appetite (suggested to review the stock's historical resistance levels).
Rationale:
Strong Fundamentals: Adobe continues to lead in creative and digital software solutions, with consistent revenue growth and profitability.
Market Leadership: Dominant market position in creative software like Photoshop, Premiere Pro, and cloud-based solutions.
Valuation: The recommended range provides an opportunity to enter during a potential pullback.
Disclaimer
This recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
Adobe - The Triangle Breakout Is Coming!Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) still remains in a bullish market:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For more than four years, Adobe has actually been moving sideways, still digesting the crazy bullrun which we saw over the past decade. Looking at the symmetrical triangle pattern though, this is just a bullish consolidation, which will most likely end with another bullish breakout.
Levels to watch: $440, $560
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Adobe (ADBE) Shares Plunge Over 13%Adobe (ADBE) Shares Plunge Over 13%
On Wednesday evening, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) released its quarterly financial results:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $4.81, Expected = $4.66;
→ Revenue: Actual = $5.61 billion, Expected = $5.54 billion.
Despite exceeding analyst expectations and showing growth compared to the previous quarter, Adobe’s stock opened Thursday with a bearish gap and continued to decline throughout the session, closing more than 13% lower than Wednesday’s close.
The sell-off was driven by Adobe’s disappointing 2025 forecast, projecting slower-than-expected revenue and earnings per share growth. According to Yahoo Finance, this stems from increasing competition (from Google, OpenAI, and others) and concerns over monetising AI tools, which have already contributed to a 20% drop in Adobe’s stock this year.
Technical Analysis of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Stock
The stock price is:
→ Forming a descending channel (highlighted in orange), with its boundaries becoming increasingly evident;
→ Breaking below both a long-term trendline (marked with an arrow) dating back to 2022 and the psychological level of $500 per share.
The outlook appears grim, although TipRanks data indicates that analysts remain optimistic:
→ 22 out of 30 analysts recommend buying ADBE stock;
→ The average price target for ADBE is $603 within 12 months, suggesting a 27% upside from current levels.
However, Adobe’s 2025 projections amidst stiff competition may prompt a reassessment of its investment value, potentially leading to a consolidation of ADBE’s price below the $500 psychological threshold.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
ADBE Adobe Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ADBE:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADBE Adobe prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $24.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Adobe - Triangle Textbook Long Setup!Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) is breaking out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating a rally of +2.000% over the past decade, Adobe created its all time high back in the end of 2021. The consolidation ever since has been quite expected, especially looking at market structure. But if Adobe breaks out of the current triangle, we will see new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $440, $560
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Is AI the New Muse for the Digital Renaissance?In a groundbreaking showcase at Adobe MAX 2024, the creative software giant unveiled its latest innovation: Adobe Firefly AI. This cutting-edge technology promises to revolutionize content creation across various media, from video production to 3D art. The star of the show, Firefly AI Video, demonstrates the potential to generate and manipulate video content with unprecedented ease and accuracy, potentially reshaping the entire landscape of digital creativity.
Adobe's commitment to ethical AI use and copyright protection sets a new standard in the industry, addressing concerns about the responsible implementation of AI in creative fields. By positioning Firefly AI as safe for commercial use, Adobe is paving the way for the widespread adoption of AI-powered tools in professional settings. This approach not only drives innovation but also ensures that creators can embrace new technologies without compromising their integrity or legal standing.
The market's positive response to Adobe's AI push, reflected in a 2.9% stock surge, underscores the transformative potential of these technologies. As Adobe integrates Firefly AI across its Creative Cloud suite and introduces new tools like Neo for 3D art creation, the company is democratizing access to advanced creative capabilities. This shift challenges creators to reimagine their processes and pushes the boundaries of what's possible in digital content creation.
650, BE THEREThis has the upside potential to be 650, before that happens it could dip towards 450 which will be a big buying opportunity. Whether it hits 450 or not, most likely it will test its all-time highs which is 30% upside potential from current price.
Happy Trading!! Not a financial advice.
Adobe (ADBE) Shares Drop Over 8%Adobe (ADBE) Shares Drop Over 8%
On Thursday evening, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) reported its third-quarter financial results:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $4.65, expected = $4.53;
→ Revenue: actual = $5.40 billion, expected = $5.37 billion.
Despite beating analyst estimates, Adobe Inc.'s (ADBE) stock dropped by more than 9% due to a disappointing fourth-quarter forecast, which fell short of market expectations. According to the chart for Adobe Inc. (ADBE), trading on Friday opened with a large bearish gap. By the end of the day, the stock had fallen by more than 8% compared to Thursday's close.
To recap, on 5 June, when the stock price was around $460, we conducted a technical analysis and identified an upward channel (shown in blue), pointing to the potential resumption of a bullish trend.
Since then:
→ The price has risen by approximately 25% to the median line of the channel, which acted as resistance (shown by the blue arrow);
→ The price briefly broke through the psychological level of $500 (shown by the black arrow).
What’s next for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) stock?
It's worth noting that Friday's candle closed above its midpoint, which could be interpreted as a sign that demand forces were present, viewing the price drop as an opportunity to take long positions. Any panic, if there was any, didn’t significantly extend the downward momentum.
Therefore, while the disappointing forecast may continue to weigh on ADBE's stock price, bulls might show renewed activity – potentially around the psychological $500 mark or the lower boundary of the channel.
According to TipRanks, the average price target for ADBE stock is $620 over the next 12 months, indicating a potential upside of 15% from current levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Adobe - Preparing a multi year breakout!NASDAQ:ADBE has been consolidating for some time and is definitely ready for a breakout.
Adobe is a stock, which is clearly heading higher on a macro perspective. Just two months ago, Adobe actually retested an important horizontal structure and managed to create bullish confirmation, followed by a reversal towards the upside. Eventually, Adobe will also break out of the ascending triangle formation, which has been forming over the past 5 years.
Levels to watch: $650
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Adobe (ADBE): Earnings Report to Trigger Major Move?With Adobe's earnings report due tomorrow, we have analyzed the weekly chart to get a clearer picture. We started our count in November 2018, identifying the sub-waves 1 and 2 leading up to the primary Wave (1). This Wave (1), like the preceding sub-waves, experienced a very rapid sell-off. Such quick declines are unusual for Wave 2s, but in this chart, it repeats frequently, confirming our interpretation despite being atypical.
We have now identified the sub-wave 1 of the overarching Wave (3). This range and its midpoint have been well respected, and we are currently at the midpoint.
Two scenarios could unfold:
• Negative Earnings Report : If the earnings report disappoints, the price could fall into the Weekly Order Block Cluster around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately $350. This would likely result in a significant pullback within the range.
• Positive Earnings Report : If the earnings report is strong, the price could shoot up, creating a breakout gap. After this initial surge, we might see a retrace back towards the midpoint of the range before continuing upwards to potentially make a new high above $700.
Given the uncertainty, we are not placing any entries at this time. We will wait to see how the earnings report affects the price action and then consider potential positions based on the developments.
Adobe, a beast hiding in plain sight! Adobe Inc. (ADBE) on the 1-hour chart illustrates a recent decline from a swing high, followed by a recovery forming a harmonic pattern labeled with points A, B, C, D, and E.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels are highlighted, including the 0.618 level at 455.67 and the 0.5 level at 451.53, along with Fibonacci extension levels at 1 (469.07) and 1.23 (477.14).
The chart features a Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) line from the previous month's swing high, which may act as a dynamic resistance around the 469.07 level.
Volume analysis reveals lower recent activity compared to previous spikes, indicating a possible consolidation phase.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently reads around 53.78, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish momentum. Key support levels are identified at 433.97, with resistance levels at 469.07 and 477.14.
The harmonic pattern suggests a potential bullish scenario if the price moves beyond 469.07 towards 477.14, while the downside risk includes a possible drop to support levels at 455.67 or 451.53 if the price fails to sustain current levels.
ADOBE: What is the stock doing before the Q2 earnings Adobe's stock price has been declining over the past month, currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with the chart drawing a "death cross" pattern around mid-April, which further confirms the bearish sentiment. The stock now trades at a 25% discount compared to the highs earlier this year.
The Volume Oscillator currently stands at 1.3%, suggesting some buying interest remains, but it's weakening compared to recent trading volume. This could signal a potential reversal, but the downtrend remains strong, with the neutral RSI not suggesting any bullish reversal either.
Next week's Q2 earnings announcement could be a significant catalyst for Adobe. Positive earnings could potentially reverse the current downtrend, but the recent controversy surrounding Adobe's terms and conditions update could weigh on investor sentiment.
The T&Cs update has sparked concerns among users, particularly creatives worried about their creations being used to train AI models, and professionals concerned about the privacy of their data. This could potentially impact Adobe's reputation and customer base, particularly since Adobe remains relatively silent on the issue. This uncertainty adds another layer of risk to the stock in the near term.
Adobe (ADBE) WaterfallI think Adobe, which has lost more than 32% since the beginning of the year, has a fair value of $522.30. However, as long as the decline continues, we should wait to buy. You can't hold a falling knife. With a break of the moving average or downtrend, I think it will reach its fair value, and with momentum, it may even go up to $620, which is the long-term downtrend. Unless the trend breaks, the decline will continue until the 300s.
📈💼 Adobe (ADBE) Analysis 🖥️🚀Revenue Evolution:
Adobe's NASDAQ:ADBE transition to subscription-based revenue has been a key driver of its growth and profitability, with subscriptions dominating recent sales. This adaptability has been crucial during the pandemic and subsequent rebound, showcasing its resilience and ability to capitalize on emerging trends like AI.
Market Sentiment and Correction:
A correction in Adobe's stock price in 2024, influenced by the AI bubble and profit-taking, reflects market sentiment. Analysts suggest this correction may have been an overreaction, potentially leading to overselling. Despite adjustments to price targets, significant upside potential is still anticipated, with consensus targets implying a 30% increase from current levels.
Long-Term Outlook:
Considering global industry trends, including the receding AI bubble, Adobe's diversified portfolio and ongoing innovation in digital content creation position it favorably for sustained growth.
📊💡 Stay informed about industry trends and monitor Adobe's performance for investment decisions! #Adobe #StockAnalysis 📉📈
Adobe - Pretty clear trading setup!Hello Traders and Investors, in this video I will take a quick look at Adobe.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2012 we saw a major symmerical triangle breakout on Adobe stock which was followed by an unbelievable rally of +2.000% towards the upside. Over the past 6 years, Adobe stock has once again formed a triangle formation and just rejected the upper resistance level. If Adobe stock retest the next horizontal support towards the downside, we could already see a bullish reversal there.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
ADBE at Volume Profile NodeThis morning NASDAQ:ADBE triggered a Spike Alert on the opening 30 minute bar. I double checked this signal against Volume Profile.
On the weekly there is a major Volume Profile node at 480 considering the bullish trend from September 2022 to January 2024. The spike this morning touches this level and have moved off with a significant Spike:
The Spike allows me to start a trade on the 30 minute timeframe with low risk and a 3:1 Reward/Risk ratio with the intent to play the higher timeframe Weekly move as a major pullback.
If we increase the time considered the Volume Profile node becomes even more significant as the POC (Point of Control) for the price action going all the way back to COVID low.
ADBE Adobe Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ADBE:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADBE Adobe prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $27.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Adobe Tumbles Amidst AI Struggles and Fierce CompetitionAdobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ), the pioneering force behind creative software solutions like Photoshop, faced a significant setback as its stock plummeted by 12% following a disappointing quarterly forecast. This downturn, fueled by fears of intensified competition and concerns over Adobe's ability to capitalize on generative AI integrations, underscored the challenges ahead for the tech giant.
In the ever-evolving landscape of tech, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) stands alongside industry heavyweights like Microsoft and Google, each vying for supremacy in AI innovation. However, Adobe's recent stumble has raised doubts about its capacity to effectively monetize AI features across its creative suite, leaving investors wary of its future prospects.
Compounding the pressure are the emergence of AI startups such as Stability AI and Midjourney, poised to disrupt Adobe's longstanding dominance in the graphics industry. Analysts from RBC Capital Markets highlighted investor apprehension regarding the "GenAI upside," reflecting concerns about Adobe's ability to leverage AI for sustained growth and profitability.
Despite forecasting $440 million in net new annual recurring revenue for its digital media segment, a decrease from the previous year's figures, Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) failed to meet market expectations. CEO Shantanu Narayen acknowledged the disparity between projections and actual performance, citing potentially inflated forecasts for the second quarter.
The fallout from Adobe's lackluster forecast extended beyond financial metrics, potentially erasing over $30 billion of the company's market value. Despite experiencing a remarkable 77% surge in 2023, Adobe's shares have faltered by 4% this year, highlighting investor uncertainty amidst conflicting signals from the company.
Analysts from Piper Sandler highlighted the challenge of deciphering Adobe's messaging, noting the company's ongoing efforts to monetize AI across its platforms. Despite these challenges, Adobe's decision to announce a $25 billion stock buyback signals confidence in its long-term strategy, following regulatory setbacks in its attempt to acquire Figma.
However, Adobe's ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) stock valuation, trading at 30.41 times its forward profit estimates compared to industry peers like Microsoft and Salesforce, raises questions about its competitive positioning. As Adobe navigates the competitive landscape and grapples with AI integration challenges, the road ahead remains uncertain.