Adobe
High prices good earningsAdobe has been one of those interesting plays on cloud with making their products exclusively available on subscription based. Effectivly it looks that an 2 years subscription is worth as much as their complete adobe suite. We seen the effect of those changes already and with ever increasing user base (attributed to good positioning for mobile, design and video with newer products). Last reports were nothing but great suprices with 10-12% overachiving. Let's see if adobe can deliver this time again.
Price/Earning ratio seems to be going on the higher side, but still some space to grow. I'm expecting adobe's EBIT to continue going up to ~3.6B and P/E to below 80 to consider good buy.
Good luck and happy trading
Sep 20 Earnings: Adobe's Competition and Expenses are burning.Adobe is a wonderful company with a great array of products and services. The company has been gaining traction with its cloud offerings allowing for the conversion of enterprise customers to Enterprise Term License Agreements (ETLAs), resulting in higher Creative Cloud adoption.
However, with great power comes great responsibility, and Adobe's expenses have been on the move with its foray into AI and Virtual Reality.
A pullback on behalf of higher expenses and guidance becoming slightly more conservative over the longer run is warranted.
I believe the stock's price is not currently pricing in the company's competition and expenses.
A short term sell with a $145 to $140 PT for the next 2-3 months.
Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity?
Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94. The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services. The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS.
But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal. Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities. This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run.
If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style.
1) Short the stock
Entry: any price today
Stop: $130.31 on market close
Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over
2) Credit Spread
Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike
Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike
Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment
3) Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade
Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike
Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company.
Until our next article.
$ADBE - Model Eyes 97.11 Reversal; Geo Sees 46.85 TargetSYNOPSIS:
Predictive/Forecasting Model sees reversal at 97.11
Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 sees support at 46.85
Interim Bullish support expected at 66.60
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, CO - USA
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.tradingview.com
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Adobe System(ADBE) has a nice short setup!!Adobe System has given a recent correction after a long rally. That correction would be a Wave A correction and since then it has retraced back to 61.8% fib which is also the trendline resistance making a Wave B. One can Go short now with stoploss just above the recent high and Targets atleast towards the same lows where the channel line support comes making it a Wave C correction and a Wave 4 completion. Happy Trading!!