Adobe - Still to Fall or Has It Reached Support Area? Is one of the leading digital media companies Adobe already attractive for investors?
Let's look at fundamentals and technical aspects.
Fundamental indicators:
Revenue and Profits - demonstrated consistent and explosive long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years
Profit margin - impressive 40% in 2021
P/E - still overpriced with 37x ratio
Liabilities - no problems with debt
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
The sharp drop in March 2020 has completed a Running Flat correction that lasted for more than year and a half
Since then Adobe has enjoyed over 170% gain in its share price with a clear impulse movement
Having peaked at nearly $700 in November 2021 it has completed global wave 3 that started in August 2011 - very lengthy growth cycle
And hence it is time for even longer correction than the one we observed in 2018-2020, the duration target is end of 2023
Global wave 4 has already started with rapid correction from the historic high, the potential support levels using Fibonacci retracement are 0.5x and 0.618x, $360 and $280 respectively. But given still quite high P/E ratio it is more likely for Adobe to reach lower level of this zone
Once support is found then we are likely to observe a very lengthy corrective movement in the range between the lower support level and the maximum price of $700, which will provide short term opportunities for bull and bears
What do you think about this scenario for Adobe ?
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
