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Adoption

$ORN: Bullish fundamentals and a look at current price actionOrion protocol's calculator announcement and subsequent pump has resulted in us hitting some expected consolidation and what looks like a pretty clear rising wedge formation. In such a bullish market? This pattern could break upwards, but I'd bet that it's going to test the previous top of the pump wick at exactly $13.00 If I wasn't just accumulating and holding this? I'd put some low leverage longs to maybe catch that dip? Or if you're trying to be conservative. Buy the breakout above the top of the rising wedge trend line. Either way. If the staking rewards are even a quarter as profitable as they claim? This project will skyrocket in value. I'd guess upwards of $40 in the next few months if not sooner. Free money is very very attractive to the new money flowing into crypto. And for seasoned traders, this price action supported by the fundamentals is a no brainer. PS: The Orion gateway exchange is the #1 thing that I wish existed right now in crypto. One of the biggest barriers to entry is the silo effect of different exchanges and the different coins they offer. Having to switch between exchanges and constantly move money around is an annoying reality that most of us just deal with, but to a new person in the space, that is a daunting task. Thinking about not only the liquidity and cost savings that the Orion Protocol will provide but the ease of use and the layman adoption of being able to swap any token for anything is so massive. This thing has the potential to really really go.
OLong
by its_maxbro
$3,000,000,000,000+ Cryptocurrency Market Cap Coming SoonJust mapping out glimpses of some important past events and fundamentally mapping out what to possibly expect in the near future or even this year. This decade Bitcoin is on its way to becoming the global reserve asset of choice, Ethereum is becoming the second layer of the internet, Decentralized Finance will have massive global adoption, the dollar is collapsing, the majority of assets and data will be on some form of blockchain. We're literally seeing a paradigm shift right before our eyes regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. We're living in a diamond moment in the context of world history. There is an extreme Fear Of Missing Out on Bitcoin (FOMO) happening within wall street, governments, businesses, financial firms, and multinational corporations worldwide. The entire cryptocurrency market will parabolically expand this decade. This of course is purely from a fundamental standpoint. Just my opinion. As always Much Love and Peace!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by peacefuljustin
2
Mega Long BTC S Curve S Curve bitcoin adoption. Demand doesn't have to grow anymore for price to continue exponential growth. Supply is diminishing at current demand. It's not unlikely that 2017 was a stunted cycle in the early phase of an S curve adoption cycle of this nascent technology. In this chart I am predicting a roughly $100 Trillion market cap by 2030. I believe with diminishing supply and increasing demand it would only take a small fraction of $100T to bring BTC to those valuations. I believe that less than $10T invested into Bitcoin can pump the market cap to those valuations. I do believe that can and will happen in less than 10 years. I do believe that we still have larger percentage increases ahead of us than we saw in the last cycle. The emerging Bitcoin economy will foster a new type of banking industry with free market interest rates. At a certain point in hyperbitcoinization people will realize they no longer need or want to sell their bitcoin for material items they want/need. With free market, sound money, over-collateralized banking, Bitcoin hodlers will be able to earn 10-25% interest on their Bitcoin. People will no longer need to rampantly speculate on risky stocks with astronomical PE ratios, when they can loan their own Bitcoin out at a "PE Ratio" of 4-10 with negligible risk. Conversely if the hodler is looking for a loan, they will be able to use their Bitcoin as collateral and receive a fiat loan to purchase a home/vehicle/etc while keeping their Bitcoin. Imagine the supply/demand dynamics when virtually nobody is willing to sell their Bitcoin but literally everybody wants it. Hopefully at that point we will have forgotten about "unit bias", or in other words preferring to own an arbitrary "whole coin" rather than preferring to own something more valuable. We will be able to look at even a million dollar bitcoin as a means of safely storing our value, even if it's only a few hundred or a few thousand dollars of value that we are looking to store in the form of a few thousand satoshis. While literally everyone will benefit from this sound money system, those who buy Bitcoin earliest will reap the most benefit.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RickSmash
Ethereum May Be Flying a Bullish FlagCryptos have come to life recently as Bitcoin’s limited supply post-halving combines with a wave of blockchain adoption: Square , PayPal and now JPMorgan Chase . Ethereum’s been quieter since the summer, following a hard rally in July and August. But now it may be showing its own signs of life. The main thing standing out on the chart today is an apparent bullish flag that’s formed in the last week. This is interesting if we use Bitcoin as a guide. Both cryptos had bullish outside days on October 12. This caused a sideways channel for BTCUSD, which it escaped on October 21. ETHUSD traded similarly, breaking out the same day as BTCUSD. It then pulled back and successfully tested that candle as potential support yesterday. Notice how ETHUSD probed under the October 12 high, but clawed back above it 19 hours later. Second, ETHUSD has been in a very tight range (unlike BTCUSD). This is evident on the weekly chart, which had inside and outside candles at the start of October. The current week’s price action is also contained so far within last week’s. Bollinger Band Width highlights the tight range on this daily chart. Finally, the trend and momentum are both accelerating. Our custom indicator MA Speed shows the 50-day simple moving average is now rising. (This also marked the start of rallies in early 2019, plus January and May of this year.) MACD has remained steadily positive as well. All these patterns may suggest ETHUSD is poised to accelerate higher. Traders may lean toward buying if it holds this current breakout and confirms the bullish flag. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by TradeStation
1
Pumped for the big Bitcoin Pump - BTC Adoption and thoughtsBitcoin is 11 years old and is already changing the world of finance. I see Bitcoin reaching it's previous All Time High by March/April of 2021. If it happens sooner or later, that's fine. I'm confident this is only the beginning for Bitcoin. In July 2020, we finally broke out of that nasty bear trend going back to the high from December 2017. We retested that trend in August again (which is a healthy move), but have since moved and stayed above it. That was painful and took soooo long! Let's please just skip that dreadful time of life next time around. Bullish feels so good! Go ahead and take a moment to appreciate those who have been able to hold on for these last few years of the journey. There's a chance we stay in a long term equilibrium pattern on the monthly, but we are close to breaking a big resistance of $13,868 and if we do, then the all time high of $19,891 is in sights. After that, it's time to buckle up. With all the positive news and infrastructure growth in this space, things are looking bright. Yes, I expect some big drops along the way, in particular after we break the all time high, but long term, things are looking positive. Adoption!!! We will continue to see companies and other institutions pouring money into Bitcoin. In the grand scheme of things, it is a gradual inflow right now, but this trend will continue to gain momentum. There is quite a bit of recent news on this matter: - Grayscale is currently purchasing 77% worth of all the newly mined Bitcoin supply, an amount that has increased every quarter this year. I can't wait for a few more halvings. Remind me again what happens to Bitcoin price when the supply gets cut in half, and then half again, and literally 1 company is buying more than is being create. The word UP is coming to my mind for some reason. - Companies like MicroStrategy ($425 Million) and Square ($50 Million) are choosing to hold Bitcoin as an asset over holding cash. Every few days now we are hearing about more companies choosing this path. - Paypal is bringing Bitcoin exposure to it's 350 Million customers world wide to be able to Buy/Sell/Hold and make purchases with Bitcoin. Regardless how many new customers this may bring in (hopefully the fees will be lowered once there is more competition) the effect of incorporating bitcoin into PayPal's wallet is pretty major. - Central Banks are taking a serious look into Central Bank Digital Currencies. 1 out of 5 central banks have said they plan to incorporate digital currencies within 1-3 years. I don't imagine the United States has a lot of incentive to move forward quickly with this, given the Dollar being the dominant world currency, but it's going to happen eventually. - Banks have been given permission by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to begin holding digital currencies. I imagine this is to allow for the digital dollar once this becomes the norm, but it also allows them to hold Bitcoin. Do you remember when banks like JPMorgan called Bitcoin a fraud just 3 years ago but now are predicting a $30,000 price for Bitcoin. Hey, even banks know that their direct competition is going to make them money. Speaking of money, who wants some Stimulus Money!?! I believe the answer to that should be anyone who wants to see another surge in the Bitcoin price. How many of you in the Crypto space added to your portfolio after receiving your stimulus check, or maybe even as soon as you heard that you were going to receive the stimulus check in the coming weeks. How much more did you make by choosing to invest some portion of it in Bitcoin versus holding it in those 0.01% super charged savings accounts we're all so excited about ;) Well, most believe a second stimulus check is likely to happen again at some point. Get ready for it! Supply and Demand, and also Inflation: My cash seems to be confused. It is going in the wrong direction! Remember the good old days. The average house used to cost $3,200. A loaf of bread cost 7 cents. Movie tickets were 10-15 cents. Clearly I wasn't alive back then, but I've heard that's how things used to be. Inflation is nasty and it's not stopping. I mean, it's cool and all that money can be magically printed out of thin air, but except for the stimulus checks, that's not going to help any of us. Printer goes brrrrr! Bitcoin has a cap of 21 Million coins. It's a simple statement, but the implications of this are why I chose Bitcoin. Every time someone buys bitcoin and chooses to hold it, guess what... sorry Charlie, it's no longer available for you to buy. You have to find some other foolish person who is willing to sell you their Bitcoin. I understand people trade the trends, and I'm all for that, this is TradingView after-all, but long term I want to be holding my Bitcoin, not getting rid of it. The inflation rate of Bitcoin is now approximately down to 1.8% and will become significantly better with each halving. Fun Fact. There are approximately 46.8 million millionaires. Only half of them would ever be able to own a single Bitcoin. Also, several million bitcoin are supposedly lost forever, and some individuals and companies are already holding multiple percentages of the bitcoin supply. I will again reemphasize there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin. Thanks for checking out some of my thoughts. I'm super excited about Bitcoin and hope there will be many more to join this community soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by zwickster
PI Daily chart/Free Mining Sleeping Gem. Massive # of users!Here is an overview of the PI project looking at the daily chart. Year to date we have seen a lot more adoption and some serious price action as a result. PI is interestingly the 4th largest cryptocurrency by NUMBER OF USERS. This sets the playing field for large-scale adoption and we can see in the price range over the last 6 months a gain of over 30,000% from it's low in April 2020. PI is being released in three phases. The first phase, the one we are currently experiencing only allows accumulation of shares by using their app to "mine" the currency. Downloading the PI app is simple and I found it to be very intuitive. You have the ability to invite others to each gain a small benefit in terms of the number of shares you receive per hour. All it requires is a check-in once every 24 hours to prove you aren't a bot, its extremely simple and you can even have the app remind you when the 24 hours has passed so you never miss out on rewards. Also, if people you have invited are inactive, you are able to "ping" them to notify them that they need to open the app and simply press the button to begin earning again. Unlike Coin, a similar app which rewards XY Oracle tokens or even BTC/ETH if you saved up truly massive amounts of the currency, the PI project is simply in it's first phase, where the miners receive the tokens as rewards simply for checking in once per day. Following this phase there will be a traditional ICO, and phase 3 looks to get PI listed on some of the large exchanges such as binance, coinbase, abra, kraken etc. Looking at other projects that become listed on these large exchanges we often see decent rallies. We all know people need to buy and sell in order for the price to move, so what makes me so confident that the price of PI will be worth the hassle of the app? It's simple...with so many people utilizing the app and participating in the ecosystem we are really setup for a launchpad once it becomes easy to purchase, swap, sell, and store. I personally will be HODL'ing all the shares I can. If anyone is interested in checking the project out, you are welcome to use my referral code " JayP420 " to get a boost off the bat and begin earning more than the baseline .20 shares per hour. This of course helps me as well but I want to be clear that I have no affiliation with the company, I am not a financial advisor, and I simply see this "sleeper project" flying under the radar. Whether it remains fractions of a penny per share or shoots up to hundreds of dollars, profit is profit. I highly recommend that crypto enthusiasts and people in general should take advantage of this easy passive moneymaking opportunity while it is still available. To join in on the project and expand its userbase even further, just follow these simple steps. 1.) Download the PI app on any smartphone 2.) Use the referral code JayP420 for a boost right off the bat for both of us 3.) Check in once every 24 hours to prove you're not a robot 4.) Profit!!! And the best part is they promise it won't be a drain on performance or battery life unlike COIN, which led me to need a new smartphone when my battery would no longer hold a charge. All that mining for 28$ worth of XY oracle tokens which I have yet to be able to cash out as they are not listed on any major exchange. The new phone cost significantly more than what I made mining with COIN. With PI, I can check in once a day, shut it off and forget it! AGAIN, I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH EITHER COIN OR PI, THIS IS SIMPLY MY OPINION. Looking at the explosion after this project began seeing more users than ever joining in on the mining, we saw a huge 30,000% rise in price since April. Joining the app is easy, free, intuitive, and a great way in my opinion to introduce people to mining/crypto in general. It's free passive income with such a low barrier of entry it's essentially non-existent. Even my 76 year old father was able to install and use the app without any trouble...he is even inviting friends of his to join in with his referral code! This is how we get the project out there and see it's user base grow even larger. With more users daily and an ICO in the works, this could really be an explosive hidden gem. Having shares weighted at 0$ can only help you when dollar-cost averaging. Good luck to all of you and hopefully we will see this project continue to grow in size as well as bring new users into the crypto space who are looking to make easy passive income without the barrier of entry of essentially any other coin. Just download the app and begin making money! -CryptoSavant
P
by bitbybit247
1
Other Fibonacci pattern for Compound & why you should be a bullUsing the Fourth of July low as a bottom (as opposed to the starting price), we see nice Fibonacci lines as well. Note that the chart has bounced several times at the $245.50 level, so expect to see tough resistance there on the way back up. If/when we eventually surpass our prior early peak, we could see prices up to $514.90 or even more optimistically $732.85. My reasons for being bullish in the long term are simply that I believe the Compound protocol itself is something that is only going to catch on to a wider audience as time goes on. I see a future where Venmo users switch to paying each other with smartphone apps that use stablecoins, and those stablecoins gain interest through the Compound protocol when they are sitting idle. Such apps already exist, but they have yet to be discovered by a broad mainstream audience. As of this writing, the iPhone app Dharma has 4.4 stars, but only 72 ratings. People love it, but most haven’t discovered it yet. The benefit of gaining interest with the Compound protocol has already been realized by crypto users, and there is a clear path to its realization by the mainstream public through smartphone apps. The recent change in Compound rules made it so that crypto users could not milk the system by “yield farming” with an exorbitant number of BAT tokens gaining interest at over 20%. The change in rules now means that stablecoin users have more to gain from using the protocol. This means two things that are very promising for the long-term future of Compound and for the COMP token itself as an investment: 1) Smartphone apps that utilize Compound and stablecoins will allow the mainstream public to pay each other with stablecoins, which unlike money in a Venmo account, gain interest, but unlike cryptocurrency, don’t come with confusing conversion rates and volatile price swings. 2) The demand for the COMP token will be driven by the incredible power that it gives token holders. A few days ago, BAT token in Compound was gaining >20% APR. Yet a single decision made by COMP token holders changed the rules such that BAT currently receives 0.10% APR. That demonstrates that COMP token holders collectively have an enormous amount of power. In theory, supporters of a specific altcoin project could try to buy up as much COMP as possible in hope of being able to affect such a decision in a way that favors their coin’s APR, with hopes that doing so would lead to increased purchase of their token. Thus, owning COMP tokens gives its owners incredible power over the Compound financial system and, as an ever-expanding pool of people use this system (for reasons stated above), the desire to own COMP will increase, driving up demand and thus driving up the price of COMP. “When you think about every bull market, there’s one common thread: an expanding universe of people who own it.” -Paul Tudor Jones “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” -Warren Buffett
FTX:COMPUSDLong
by tarbh
1
Quick Look At The State Of BitcoinBitcoin has performed exceptionally well so far this year (and will continue to do so in the long run). You can see Bitcoin is up almost 40.5% for the year. From here we have two more key levels to break before we test the S2F model's price prediction. (Stock to flow) Paul Tudor Jones announced he was bullish on Bitcoin. The halving date is May 12, 2020. I expect a pull back due to increased selling pressure as unprofitable miners sell their reserves (either to stay afloat, meet their contractual obligations, or to invest in capital expenditures to reach profitablility again, i.e purchase next generation mining eqiupment, ect.). After the miner capitulation, I believe we will test the two key resistance levels before finally breaking above around Q4 2020 or Q1 2021. Keep your hands strong!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AnotherAnalyst
Bitcoin has finally broken a key resistance level from FebruaryShort and simple analysis in bullet points: - Bitcoin was forming lower lows after reaching a local high of 7400 (green circles on the charts); - It was heading to its key support levels - yellow line (key support from 2019) and Fib 61.8% probably due to S&P correction and potential stablecoins ban; - However, it gained enough momentum to finally brake the red resistance line that started to form back at February when BTC was looking very bullish; - If BTC is able to hold above the red line making it our support, it will have a golden cross very soon on the 1 hour and 4 hours time frames very soon; - BTC almost formed a golden cross right after a death cross back when it was rallying up to 7400 but failed to brake the red resistance line; What to expect next: - Next target for the BTC will be braking 50% Fib level and establishing itself there around 7200; - Next BTC will need to make a higher high at around 7600 - 7700 depending on the speed of the price action, which will also bring back BTC to the rising channel you can see on the chart; - The ultimate boss resistance is to be faced at 7900-8100 level - not only it is the level when the recent crash has started but also a level that must be broken in order for BTC to get back into the adoption curve; - Bearish scenario will be falling back to 6200 - 6400 levels and gaining more support there.
by Vasco_Woodz
1
Daily Bullish Divergence (ETHEREUM)Really loving this look right now.. Big bullish divergence on the daily time frame.. I truly believe in the technology that Ethereum has brought into the world.. However.. I do not like how we are approaching a long-term support and resistance zone.. I also do not feel comfortable with the volume.. I have a long-term holding position in Ethereum however if we have another drop I will certainly be putting more capital to work.. But maybe I already missed the opportunity.. Let's see.. -- MNLZ
FOREXCOM:ETHUSD
by MinimalFiat
2
The Bitcoin ICO is almost complete!That's right, after 10 years of selling Bitcoin the Initial Coin Offering ( ICO ) is almost complete. You have had a little over 10 years to hodle together a long position before worldwide adoption and usage. From the days of buying fractions of Bitcoin off eBay to buying pizza with BTC, to multiple Bitcoin Exchanges worldwide, to Futures markets, to Mega-Corp Financial involvement, to now Facebook jumping in. And this is just the beginning...… Soon you will no longer have the luxury of bickering back and forth with your trading buddies while you watch the price of Bitcoin gently flicker back and forth between highs and lows, this fib and that fib, this pattern to that pattern, etc. etc. etc. NO! Soon you will be competing with every know-it-all teenager from around the world with an Internet connection, a Facebook account, and an allowance! LOL The charts will start doing things YOU NEVER COULD IMAGINE. :0) Until..... Bitcoin reaches several Trillion in market cap and settles down as the KING on top of the Crypto Hill. Not too long from now you will look back at these gentle days of Bitcoin trading and lament "Ah, The Good Ol' Days" Did you take full advantage of this ICO or are you still waiting for BTC $1,200 ?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
Dash hitting 18 Month Low, ignoring the Mass Adoption.Since September 2018, Dash has reached mass adoption, accepting over 3,600 merchants worldwide. This is an astonishing achievement by the Dash team as the main criteria for cryptocurrency growth is the actual use case. With Dash, it is clear that over the long term price is more likely to increase, rather than continue trending downwards. Just consider the fact of the massive growing adoption potential if Dash will continue to add merchants at this rate. The paradox is that while Dash is getting massive exposure and increasing number of partners, price remains at low levels. It’s like all good news are being ignored by the market and seems like Bitcoin is still dictating the pace to all altcoins. Perhaps when BTC will start producing higher highs and higher lows, Dash will outperform Bitcoin and many other Alts, just based on the current usecase. On the 22nd of August Dash has reached 18 month low, hitting btc 0.02. This is a substantial decline from the all-time high, which has resulted in a 83% loss to Bitcoin. After hitting the low, Dash has moved up and broke above the descending channel, followed by the breakout of the btc 0.03 resistance. However at the btc 0.033 high, RSI oscillator registered a bearish divergence and DASH/BTC entered a consolidation phase. Currently Dash is trading between btc 0.025 support and 0.030 resistance and obviously lucking high trade volume that would enable price to move in any direction. Nevertheless, the btc 0.022-0.025 support area could be price range where trading activity will pick up, and bulls might start buying Dash. However, as the major trend is down, break below the support is possible, making Dash a risky purchase at this time. Watching the trade volume along with the resistance breakout should help investors to determine short and medium term trend. If price breaks below the btc 0.022 support, Dash could fall down to btc 0.01 support area. But, on the other hand, daily break and close above the btc 0.033 resistance could trigger buy limit orders, pushing price up to btc 0.044 or 0.060 resistance level. Support: 1. 0.025 2. 0.022 3. 0.012 Resistance: 1. 0.033 2. 0.044 3. 0.060
by CryptalDash
1
Bitcoin Adoption: a look at trade and retail volume ratiosHere I look at the exchange (red) and non-exchange (blue) volume ratios which I interpret as trading and retail volume respectively. Retail Volume The non-exchange volume is on average > 50% over BTC lifetime with periods of >80% not uncommon. This is extremely good in my opinion, if we interpret this as peer to peer monetary transactions of a non-speculative nature. Of course this data will also include spamming events such as network diagnostic transfers and entities distributing funds over multiple wallets, but I assume these to be negligible compared to the number of genuine financial transactions. Is this alone enough to justify the current price levels? Probably not. Let us look at gold just as an exercise ;) (data: www.statista.com) Financial usage (bank stocks/ETFs/coins&bullion) run to about 30%, whilst the jewellery sector alone accounts for 50% demand. Other industrial sectors demand around 20%. However if we consider (rightly in my opinion) gold jewellery to be another form of asset class, then financial applications outweigh actual industry 4:1 -> this is the kind of situation that leads to asset bubble formation, and yes the current price of gold is not supported by fundamentals. Blow all you want goldbugs... this is why the market has been in decline since 2011... If any of this is actually true, it is important that BTC's development as a medium of transaction not be allowed to stagnate! Trading volume The periods when the retail volume ratio is almost non-existent are of course the peaks of cryptocurrency bubbles and these are infrequent. During these times trading volume spikes to above 100% (the available raw data is estimated transaction volume - so statistical in nature - consider anything greater than 1 as 100% however these are rare outliers). Most of the time the trading volume ratio seems to float between 15% and 40%. It bottoms out at <5%. These points indicate substantial buy areas and the start of new speculative activity, but of course it is not necessary for the ratio to reach such lows. Unrecognised ATH and the Great HODL In 2013 the trading ratio peaks not in November but in April. This is due to the development of speculation not keeping up with retail adoption, which might be surprising to some - at this ATH trading tx was only slightly higher than April 2013 levels, whilst non-exchange transactions had boomed. Interestingly this also corresponds to peak decentralisation ( link ), but perhaps that is another topic of discussion. Anyway, after April 2013 we see a marked decline in trading ratio until the end of the 2015 bottom, where the ratio bottoms out and a new round of speculation is initiated. This period (which Bansal calls the Great HODL) corresponds to extreme flatness in the retail ratio, which peaks at 98%. 2+2 = 5 So what does any of this mean? If I were to speculate I'd say that a wave structure exists: hodl phase, speculation phase, sell-off phase. Typical bubble formation roadmap. Please read Dhruv's article on the HODL wave for a more in depth discussion on this subject. From this it is not clear whether we are at a final sell-off or an intermediate one, e.g. like April 2013. arxiv.org Dhruv Bansal blog.unchained-capital.com
BNC:BLX
by RealMcafee
11
Research! Research! Research! I smell blood.I don't disagree with the notion that right now we are set up almost identical to the market in 2014. I don't disagree that we probably have a while longer before we see a bull run. But I am pretty confident we aren't going to see 2+ years of bear market and I don't think we will see a 2+ years of bull market after. I think what we are experiencing is the final days of true manipulation, the beginning days of true adoption, and a culmination of some really strong forces. The noise will continue, but the rise will be more steady. Let me explain... Maybe we haven't hit rock bottom but with the bulls crying their eyes out and people shorting so sure of themselves, I would say that it's a pretty good time for some or all to get wrekt. Think about it. There is a moment when you can make both animals cry. The minute of reversal where it's obvious that a massive gain is coming, but hasn't yet so the shorts get liquidated because of the lack of coverage. And then there are the bulls that so badly want something to moon, but in reality it's going to be a slow steady climb. Going back to the rate of adoption, think of the bell-curve that happens. No where in that curve is there a break. Adoption and price accelerate through about 1/3 of the total life cycle. There is however sometimes a chasm, much like the described perilous valley in the accepting of humanoid robots, that causes confusion before all of the early adopters get on board. The only thing there is to determine is how long the life of a cycle will be. In my last post I messed around with GDPs of five countries. I found at just one percent of their GDP in crypto-currency, the number is actually a little more than what the current market cap was listed at that day of 299B. In a perfect world right now we would see enough growth through adoption that we could take profits and new money coming in would offset the profit taking. But instead let's see what a macro story can tell us. Right now there just aren't enough retail stores taking crypto to make a difference but what happens when that threshold is crossed. 1. Some one buys something with crypto. 2. Price of crypto goes up due to fiat entering a market. 3. Amount of fiat in cirrculation goes down 4. No reason to sell crypto for fiat because enough retail to sustain oneself. 5. You get paid in crypto from work. 6. You buy more stuff gradually shifting more GDP to crypto. 6. Cycle repeats. This is what we should be striving for but due to where we are in this adoption cycle right now we are still ironing out wrinkles and people don't see a bigger picture. So Research, Research, Research! Prop up your own currency and figure out how you can make actual differences. Lastly, sniff around for the blood. Look at opposing views and see who is either scared or overly-confident. Just like bulls think the market will go up even in the short term, bears tend to think they will continue going down in the long term. Refer to my Buddhist approach to investing for inner peace if you seek the middle ground. ;-)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by whiprush3
3
Why panic sell? You didn't sell your house in the 2008 crash.As always I like to look at things in no smaller than six month time frames. The longer the better in general. I even remember 20 something odd years ago when an investment instructor told me that "if you're investing you shouldn't be looking at a time frame of less than 5 years." Let's apply this to our general way of thinking. When the housing market bubble burst people didn't run out and sell their homes. They either stopped paying because they lost their job or they held on and their diligence paid off when the market recovered. Now let me introduce to you a simple story. A macro type of story, but it applies to almost anything. When we go to buy a product, whether it's produce from the supermarket or a car off the lot, we look for the best deal possible. Why people in general don't adopt this policy in investing we may never know. The story goes like this... A lady sees a dress for sale. The sticker price is usually $500 but today it's 50% off. No one in their right mind would say that it decreased in value so I'll wait till it goes back up. So she buys the dress when it's on sale and tells her husband how much money they made. I mean saved. Now, this should not be equated to short-selling. That's a different animal all together. Now a third point. The GDP of Japan is almost 5 trillion dollars. That's not an insignificant number. Japan has recognized BTC as an official currency and form of payment and there are about 30 countries total where bitcoin is completely unrestricted and just waiting for greater adoption. People seem very wrapped around the idea of institutional money coming into the market recently and while there is nothing wrong with this I don't think it's going to be as big as people think. I also believe institutional money is already there in larger quantities than most people care to consider because: 1. Nothing stopped institutions from buying coins and holding them in reserve years ago. 2. There was no reason for them to inform the public of this if they wanted better positions. 3. This has happened before with Apple, Tesla, Google, and other investments where the public was completely unaware of the moves. But let's get back to Japan. Five trillion USD, not Yen. Let's take 1 percent of that. That leaves us with 50,000,000,000. That's fifty billion that could be put into circulation in BTC and "IS" gradually happening. Now let's look at Korea's GDP. 1.4 trillion. Again 1% comes to 14,000,000,000. That's 14 billion. You can see how things add up really quickly. Now, let's take a look at the U.S. - 18.5 trillion, Germany - 3.5 trillion, and Canada 1.5 trillion. Add these five countries together and we get 29.9 trillion or 29.9x10^12. 1% of this is 2.99x10^11. What does that look like with zeros? $299,000,000,000. Okay, so I admit I hit that number by luck because it is just about the number that coinmarketcap.com claims is the total market cap for all crypto-currencies. But I also hope that puts things in perspective. Because the price fluctuates by orders of magnitude, we can actually assume that there isn't this much money in the market yet. If there was we would probably be looking at double the current market cap. In 2016 the global GDP was around 75.4 trillion. You know the story now. If one percent of that was circulated in crypto-currencies, not even bitcoin alone, where would that put us? So the actual end story should sound something like this... Bitcoin was created and the value went up, the amount of fiat in circulation went down, the rate of adoption went up, the fiat exponentially went down in use, BTC's value went exponentially up, and early adopters still got rich even when they bought and HODL'd at $19k in 2017. Now this is very simplified and there will be massive dips because people will get too excited, but these are very real numbers. Hope this helps.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by whiprush3