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Adoptioncurve

BTC half way through the cycle likely heading for at least 140kI've posted a BTC chart here last cycle, showing the weekly and monthly RSI cheat-sheet of where to buy and sell, and I trust it served many well (see the related idea below) The key to anticipating cycle targets ahead of time is the adoption curve, which is actually a straight line on a chart with log on both axes, but without log on the date axis (unsupported by TradingView sadly) one may plot points and retrofit curves into that as shown So far Bitcoin's price action has been oriented around "lay-line" diagonals similar to Gold (see my recent XAU chart) but the main difference is that the sectors on BTCUSD are now beginning to fractionalise owe to diminishing adoption curve returns At the bottom is my custom relative volume indicator which shows relative volume in a Bollinger Band sigma measurement fashion split down into a buy-to-sell ratio depending on the composition of the candle (this is the Bitstamp chart but a summation chart produces the exact same consistent capitulation flags) At some point I may list my RSI candles and RVB histogram as premium indicators here on TradingView since their tried-and-tested benefits are not to be underestimated as can be seen very clearly here The current blue bull cycle channel I called over a year ago before the support was even touched and I was able to do that because I recognised the angle of the resistance last Easter and extrapolated a projection from the last cycle (it's copy pasta of the same channel as last cycle basically) It has not moved since I was also able to call the 70k local top a month ago because I'm well aware that for whatever reason the numbers 7 & 14 are significant on the Bitcoin chart and that's why I also expect that this cycle will likely black swan past 140k briefly up to about 200k similar to how it shot to 20k past 14k seven years ago Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by markusrafferty
Demystifying crypto; how to trade it without being stolen fromUltimately there's no need for channels and wedges and such to even be penciled in here since the cycles clearly boil down to some simple ground rules... 1. If you're being encouraged to buy in the red or sell in the blue by anyone with alleged "tenure" then you're speaking to a thief; 2. Forget aiming for the all-time-highs or pico bottoms with any kind of precision and just _keep it simple_; 3. Capitulation comes thick and fast but greed lasts for a while so if in doubt buy in generous chunks and trickle out; 4. The cycles have simmered down massively from "innovator" -> "early adopter" -> "early majority" so anything above 5x for the "late majority" phase is a bonus The bottom line... don't be too surprised if there's a final WWIII capitulation wick still incoming and _definitely_ don't let them trick you into selling there
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by markusrafferty
5
Bitcoin and the Peak of Inflated ExpectationsMy Bitcoin long-term TA broke; I determined why and I hope I'm wrong. The hash ribbon buys, no longer working, the momentum indicators I used to use to determine the next parabolic rise, broken. Plan B's floor model failed and Plan B's Stock to Flow is failing quickly. ​I needed to determine why this was. I found my answer by comparing and contrasting technology adoption cycles. I think we are at the end of the Early Adopter's phase before Mass Adoption begins when there is a Peak of Inflated Expectations (personal opinion: this sounds like a marketing term developed by the elite as to hide their intentions to take over the technology and choose how they want to apply it at the cheapest price possible). As crypto has a definitive date when it was invented, it has taken 12 years for it to reach this point. Based on my understanding of the internet and railroad technologies (which have a less clear "invented" date), this took about 19 and 65 years respectively. With each paradigm-shifting technology, the adoption cycles speed up. I compared the similarities to Amazon's market structure right before the .com bubble popped and it is eerily similar to Bitcoin now. The same RSI numbers and weekly bearish divergences with similar numbers, the same volume decreases, the same wicked out double top, the same 50% crash in between the tops. Also similar to the .com bubble pop is the macroeconomic climate at the time, a time of unprecedented financial looseness and cheap money flowing. Soon followed by the fed raising interest rates. Sound familiar? In addition, 'where are the freedoms the internet promised us?' I think we will be saying the same thing about crypto in 10 years' time as institutions walk in and take control of the technology during the Trough of Disillusionment. Bitcoin will lose 95% of its market from this last top and find a final bottom out in the next year or two, with altcoins sinking much lower. For better news, especially for holders, as the cycles speed up, so does the Trough of Disillusionment. It took Amazon 8 years from its bottom to see its highs realized yet again. I predict something similar, yet faster, for Bitcoin, seeing new highs again in 5-6 years after its bottom is anchored. Most of the current altcoins now will never recover though, just as in the .com bubble. I think we have one more dead cat bounce coming up as the last opportunity for retail to get out, it will be short-lived. Again, I hope I'm wrong but the puzzle pieces just fit too well. Disclaimer: These ideas were not original, but I did not keep track of my resources as I did not imagine I'd find anything of much use, nevertheless share it. I could not find them again, otherwise, I would link them here. As always though DYOR.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by SRJRainey
1