AEO
Big moves ahead of AEO. Year long correction is over.I think that AEO is one of the most overlooked stocks right now. Elliot wave analysis suggests that the year long correction is over and we are on the brinks of starting a new motive wave. We clearly saw a breakout out of the falling wedge on friday, and that's BULLISH. Not only that, but AEO is a company that actually makes money. Above all that, AEO is a highly shorted stock with 23% of the free float shorted. Also, SPY is bound to rally into a corrective leg, short term is looking BRIGHT for AEO. NFA.
Rare Buying Opportunity for AEOThis monthly chart for American Eagle Outfitters ( AEO ) shows a clear non-logarithmic trend line that has continued throughout the history of the company's existence on the exchange (except briefly during COVID lockdowns). The green shaded area is a definite buy area for long-term investors. This linear trend held up during the Great Recession when 10% of the population was unemployed, and there is no reason to believe that economic circumstances are worse now than in the Great Recession, such as to expect the 25-year trend to end. Similar to VFC , this is another high dividend stock that is sitting in a relatively rare buying zone. Based on my charting analysis, I believe that this stock will likely end 2022 about 25% higher than the current price. So based on the charts, I expect to get about a 25% return on investment in addition to a 5% dividend by the end of the year.
Not financial advice. As always nothing is ever guaranteed. Trends can end.
American Eagle - stick a fork in retail, it's dead. Or is it?Even though it makes no goddamn sense AEO has been rallying lately, albeit with quite a bit of chop. Maybe people are getting more optimistic about AE's ability to come back from the 'Rona, who knows, but at any rate you could potentially position to take advantage of this trend by purchasing $9.50 calls. If the stock continues to mean revert back to its 200DMA, you will pack away a tidy profit.
AMERICAN EAGLE - LongsMy positive view:
1) AEO is well positioned as one of the most 'inclusive' brands to outperform peers
2) consistently solid comps (+2%, 20th consecutive quarter of growth) and healthy fundamentals (ample
liquidity and little debt), which underscores strength of leading brands and the company's ability to expand footprint (+70 in FY 21) and
capture share from competitors' woes like GPS and LB, which I expect to shutter 230 and 53 stores through FY 21
3) AEO boasts an attractive yield (4.3%).
Risks: margin headwinds tariffs and supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus, an estimate a $0.01 headwind in the first quarter of FY 21. About 30% of AEO's production comes from China and we see figure falling below 20% in 2020.
A 12-month target of $16 is 11.3x, FY 21
EPS estimate of $1.41, below 3-year historical forward P/E average, reflecting expectation that apparel is in for a tough 2020 due to:
1) increased acceptance of secondhand clothing;
2) a softening economic environment;
3) thinning retail traffic due to coronavirus. (January clothing sales dropped 3.1% from December, the steepest drop since March
2009.)
$AEO Looks To Be A Good Risk/Reward Play$AEO has a multiple bottom in place and is on the verge of breaking out of the downtrend line. With the stock trading at just 9.7x earnings, there's been talk of M&A happening in the beaten-down retail space. Citi sees M&A optionality with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF). The firm thinks Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) should take a look at an acquisition or a merger with American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) should be considered.
Also within the apparel sector - PVH (NYSE:PVH), V.F. Corp. (NYSE:VFC) and Capri Holdings (NYSE:CPRI) are seen as potential buyers of an attractive brand like Decker Outdoors' (NYSE:DECK) Hoka brand or Oxford Industries' (NYSE:OXM) Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Southern Tide brands. Columbia Sportswear (NASDAQ:COLM) and L Brands' Victoria's Secret business (NYSE:LB) are mentioned as potential targets.
There's also room for short covering as 14.5% of the float is short.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer that provides clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle and Aerie brands. The company also provides jeans, and other apparel and accessories for men and women; and intimates, activewear, and swim collections, as well as personal care products for women. In addition, it offers sports apparel under the Tailgate brand; and menswear products under the Todd Snyder New York brand name. As of March 6, 2019, it operated approximately 934 American Eagle stores, 262 Aerie stores, 5 Tailgate stand-alone stores, and 1 Todd Snyder stand-alone store in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, and Hong Kong. It also ships to 81 countries through its Websites; and offers its merchandise at 231 locations operated by licensees in 24 countries, as well as provides products through its Websites ae.com, aerie.com, and ToddSnyder.com. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
As always, trade with caution and use protective stops.
Good luck to all!
Long American Eagle (AEO) nice Risk Reward Option or equity playAmerican Eagle oversold, and the accelaration in the stock is not justified (in my opinion). They are on the pace of gaining market share from VS and continue to grow. I believe pace of sell off was just too steep. Based on recent high frequency economic data and Jerome Powell's comments, consumer spending is solid and US retail sales are good, I believe close to the next earnings report I am expecting a pick up in the stock price.There are signs of strong support at 16.60 and signs of weekly consolidation at 16.82. I believe price will be pushed up towards 17.15, 17.40, and 17.50 and breakout from there towards mid $18 levels.
AEO Short Day Trade AEO looks weak to me, the daily chart is broken, its below all its daily moving averages of 20,50,100,200 sma. its made lower relative highs and lower lows, catching support at 17.02. I would short it today if it shows good volume, a weak premarket pattern with lower lows and lower highs, profit target being the 17.02 support area.
AEO American Eagle Outfitters Short OpportunityAfter being a holder for years of AEO , I recently sold for a gain and have been keeping a close eye still.
AEO is about to hit a fib. line of .786 at or around 26.88 price. Yes, it may climb higher, but the recent trend has been to drop steep after hitting a mark.
Monitor and watch for a possible short soon by October at the latest.
The Bearish Case for AEO -- Gap up or Bull Trap?Red Flag refers to gap up, could this be a bull trap?
im looking for it to correct around the .618 and .78, resistance at the 1
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
IMPLIED VOLATILITY/EARNINGS
SEASONAL -- Also, keep in mind some believe that clothing retailers stock price can be influenced by temperature/heat (see: Kohls, Sears, etc) -- with the end of summer around the corner, demand could and likely will move to other sectors