What is happening with the stockmarkets right now?If we look at the indexchart of the AEX (dutch25) we are seeing high consolidation. This means that markets are on this moment unpredictable and are waiting for more information.
Why can't we predict the markets?
Because we saw at the past that markets dind't react as expected on politics and economic data. This means that the most people are afraid to place orders. Wich can turn on a consolidated market.
What to do?
Because i only go long i'm waiting for a drop or breakout in the market. If this happen, i will go long.
AEX
Update Forecast Randstad: limited move up to 54.85Price first dropped on monday. Still expect a limited move up before the drop.
Forecast Randstad for the coming weeks remains:
limited move up to 54.85, then move down to 52.00. Move down should be completed in the around Februar 9.
This update is a follow up on this chart:
Why i am long Indices in Early October30/09/16:
Db just had a huge correction forcing Germany or ECB to step in pritty soon.
With this burden on an all time low its less to bother about for indices.
Sure if db crashes then you can say goodbye to this entire plan, but probably many plans will be garbage then.
And does the world really need a new financial crash?
I dont think so...
We recently had an opec deal to cut output, personally i am sceptical due to non opec producers beeing able to pick up the pace with higher prices so this may put some downward pressure into the upcoming month.
Last we have the us stock exchanges who are all near ath's and keep hovering around that zone with no immediate new problems to be sighted (excluding wells fargo perhaps) in usa i dont expect usa indices to put much pressure into european indices into early october.
Given the current aex price (also dax and other european indices) i am prity sure to open calls on eu indices with a targetdate of a few weeks.
Check in on the other charts as well i'll comment for a zoomed vieuw.
AEX daytimeframe february - july compare to FTSE index
If we look at the AEX we are seeing an uptrend, but if we look at the FTSE, we are seeing an breaking-out above the upward trendline. If we look at the RSI index we are seeing an really long trend the last time above our upper band. If we look at the MACD we have some pression the last semair.
If are looking aging at our stockimage in the bollinger bands there could come some moment were the MA will cross under the basis line of the Bollinger bands. This means that there could be some pression what can results in a downtrend.
Also Bloomberg has been uploaded some content about the bad politic situation in the UK when the prime minister is getting out. This can also result in a shockwave in financial markets (most likely is the markets that are in correlation with the FTSE)
Aegon moving upwardsAegon has lost alot of value after closing down/selling a part of there english brench. Looking at the history of Aegon it has always restored to atleast 5 but 5.5 has been hit often as well. The trend shown with the pitchfork isnt to be expected after 6.To summerise:i expect aegon hitting 5.5 coming down again and afterwards going up to 6 in the longer run. As i see selling of the problemsridden english brench as a good move. MACD is still positive on the weekchart.
Flow traders quarter hasslesAfter a sharp decline with big investors leaving the stock, a retracement to 38% has been reached. After hitting the 38% retracement a movedown has occured. The MACD is about to pass through the MACD triggerline. With the quarter reports coming up on 4th of may this stock might get interesting. I expect a tradingrange with around 37 as top till then but the promise of a flag occuring is getting my hopes up.
buy a bounce, flow traders (aex)(Advice specificly made for our investment group). 13 april major investment party left flow traders and taking with it a major drop in price. because of a break in the boilingerbands+oversold signal through rsi(14) (and STO full) a bounce to atleast the 0,38 fib retracement line is expected. The MACD momentum is still negative but changing direction and expected to break the triggerline soon