AFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) Short Trade Setup and AnalysisAFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) on the 15-minute timeframe:
Trade Summary
Position: Short Trade
Entry: $46.84
Stop Loss: $48.47
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $44.84 (Hit)
TP2: $41.59 (Hit)
TP3: $38.34 (Pending)
TP4: $36.33 (Pending)
Technical Analysis
The price action for AFRM has shown a steady downtrend in alignment with the bearish market sentiment. The position was initiated near the entry point of $46.84, with the Risological dotted trendline indicating a continuous bearish pressure, thus validating the short entry.
With TP1 and TP2 already achieved, the price is moving in line with the projected downtrend. The decreasing volume and proximity to the trailing targets suggest that there is further room for downside potential, aiming towards TP3 and TP4.
Market Insights
Volume: 5.59M (below the 30-day average of 9.08M), indicating moderate sell-off interest.
Key Levels:
Day’s Range: $40.63 - $42.47, which reflects a steady decline.
52-Week Range: $16.50 - $52.48, showing that the stock is approaching the lower side of its yearly range.
Upcoming Earnings: In 12 days, which could further influence AFRM’s trend based on market expectations.
This technical setup aligns with the broader market indicators and the prevailing bearish momentum in AFRM. Further downside potential remains viable as the trend continues.
Affirm
Affirm Holdings Falls! TP1 Hit in Short Trade, Bearish MomentumTechnical Analysis: Affirm Holdings – 15-Minute Timeframe (Short Trade)
Affirm Holdings showed a bearish signal, prompting a short trade entry at 46.84. The price has already reached Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 44.84, confirming the strength of the bearish move.
Key Levels
Entry: 46.84 – The short trade was initiated after identifying bearish momentum.
Stop-Loss (SL): 48.47 – Positioned above resistance to manage risk and protect against upside reversals.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 44.84 – Already achieved, confirming the effectiveness of the trade setup.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 41.59 – The next target if the bearish trend continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 38.34 – A further downside target should selling pressure remain strong.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 36.33 – The ultimate target, marking a significant bearish move.
Trend Analysis
The price is trading below the Risological Dotted trendline, which confirms a solid downtrend. With TP1 already met, the continued bearish momentum suggests further downside potential.
The short trade on Affirm Holdings has started well, with TP1 already hit at 44.84. The next targets are within reach if the selling pressure continues, making this trade setup promising for further gains.
Affirm Posted a Smaller-Than-Expected Loss Stock down 9.11%Consumer financing firm Affirm Holdings ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) reported a smaller-than-expected loss in the March quarter, while revenue and other financial metrics beat Wall Street targets. Guidance came in above expectations, and Affirm stock was down 8.8% in morning trading. The company reported a 43-cent per share loss for the three months ended March 31, compared with an 86 cent per-share loss in the year-earlier period.
Affirm said revenue climbed 51% to $576 million, with revenue minus transaction expenses coming in at $231 million compared to estimates of $217 million. Gross merchandise volume rose 36% to $6.3 billion, and the new Affirm Card brought in $35.67 million in revenue, up 21% versus estimates of $37 million.
For the current June quarter, Affirm ( NASDAQ:AFRM ) expects revenue of $595 million at the midpoint of its outlook, topping estimates of $579 million. It forecasts GMV of $6.85 billion, edging by estimates of $6.65 billion. NASDAQ:AFRM stock had retreated 27% in 2024 prior to the release of fiscal Q3 earnings but has clawed back above its 50-day moving average.
Affirm is one of the biggest providers of buy now, pay later installment payment services, with its initial public offering raising $1.2 billion in January 2021.
AFRM | Parabolic Move Coming | LONGAffirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Its platform consists of three core elements: a point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. The company was founded by Max R. Levchin in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.
Riding the Waves with Affirm Holdings An Elliot Wave PerspectiveGreetings, fellow learners of the financial markets! Welcome to RK_Charts, and today, let's delve into an educational exploration of Affirm Holdings.
Technical Insight:
Affirm Holdings is currently trading near $36.70, showcasing an intriguing Elliott Wave pattern. Having successfully navigated through waves (1), (2), and (3), the stock now finds itself in the midst of the corrective phase, wave (4). Within this phase, wave C is on the verge of completion, having completed waves A and B.
Detailed Wave (4) Analysis:
Zooming in on wave C, the intricate journey unfolds with meticulous completion of waves ((i)), ((ii)), ((iii)), and ((iv)). As we stand on the precipice of the final leg which can show little new Low also possibly with Bullish Divergence, wave ((v)) beckons, potentially signaling an upcoming bullish move, So new Low can be an opportunity at lower levels.
Educational Purpose Only:
This analysis is presented solely for educational purposes. It is crucial to understand that market dynamics are multifaceted, and investing involves inherent risks. Always conduct thorough research, factor in personal risk tolerance, and consider seeking advice from financial professionals.
Invalidation Level:
In this educational context, an invalidation level is established at $30.65. This level serves as a precautionary measure, signaling a point at which the current analysis may no longer align with market movements. It's a reminder of the importance of risk management in any trading or investment decision.
Potential Target:
For those intrigued by market dynamics, consider the educational exercise of contemplating a long position in Affirm Holdings. The anticipated target of $52.50 aligns with the top of wave (3), illustrating a potential upward trajectory.
Conclusion:
In the realm of financial education, Affirm Holdings provides a captivating case study. Approach this analysis with a curiosity for learning, acknowledging the fluid nature of markets, and embracing the importance of risk-aware decision-making.
Happy learning
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
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However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
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Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 37.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $3.57.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$AFRM Possible Double Top InsightNASDAQ:AFRM double top insight on the weekly chart, a development that is garnering attention from both bears and bulls in the market. Bears are keen on seeing the stock reach this critical level soon, as it could indicate a reversal and a potential downturn. On the other hand, bulls are looking for signs of bullish consolidation, as this could provide the momentum needed to break through this level, invalidating the double top and potentially leading to further upward movement.
$AFRM Double TopThe stock of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (ticker symbol: NASDAQ:AFRM ), has demonstrated a technical pattern known as a "Double Top." This pattern is identified on the chart by two distinct peaks at approximately the same price level and is considered a bearish reversal formation. It typically indicates that the stock has attempted to break through a certain price point on two separate occasions but has failed to maintain upward momentum.
In the case of NASDAQ:AFRM , after the stock price reached its first peak, it subsequently retreated, only to rise back to that peak level again. The inability of the stock to push past this resistance level during the second attempt is what completes the Double Top pattern. Technical analysts interpret this as a signal that the buying pressure is exhausted and that the sellers are starting to dominate, potentially leading to a trend reversal from previously bullish to bearish.
The confirmation of the Double Top pattern would come with a break below the support level that lies between the two peaks, often referred to as the "neckline." If the price of NASDAQ:AFRM falls below this neckline with significant volume, it could confirm the pattern and suggest a potential sell-off, as traders may take this as a cue to exit long positions or possibly establish short positions.
Investors using technical analysis would keep a close watch on NASDAQ:AFRM for any significant moves below the neckline, as this could indicate the start of a downward trend and a shift in the stock’s momentum. It's important to note, though, that while technical patterns like the Double Top can provide insights, they should ideally be considered alongside other fundamental and market factors when making investment decisions.
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AFRM ahead of the previous earnings:
or when you saw those big puts adding:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.17.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Affirm Shares Soar 19% On BNPL Offering For Amazon BusinessShares of payments provider Affirm (AFRM) jumped more than 19% after expanding its partnership with Amazon (AMZN) to offer buy now, pay later (BNPL) services to the e-commerce giant's business-to-business (B2B) clients.
Thousands of small business users on Amazon Business—most of them sole proprietors—stand to benefit from expanded payment options that include paying off their purchases via equal installments over three to 48 months.
While most BNPL payment options don't charge interest, customers on Amazon's B2B platform will be charged an annual percentage rate (APR) between 10% and 36% depending on perceived credit risk, Affirm's Chief Revenue Officer Wayne Pommen said in an interview with CNBC.
At a time of rising borrowing costs, this could be a viable alternative to traditional payment options like credit cards—on which interest rates have soared to records recently, reaching a median of 24.12% across all credit cards.
Amazon's partnership with Affirm stretches back more than two years, when the e-commerce giant first introduced the financial firm's BNPL services on its website, offering it to customers who spent $50 or more on a purchase.
Earlier this year, Amazon also added Affirm as a BNPL payment option on Amazon Pay
Affirm shares have more than doubled so far this year/
AFRM Affirm Holdings big puts addingLast time, AFRM puts were profitable:
This week, Affirm Holdings (AFRM) saw a notable increase in the acquisition of puts with a November 3rd expiration date, set at a $17.50 strike price with a premium of $0.67.
Affirm operates within the "buy now, pay later" model, which has also been dubbed as "pay never" by some analysts.
However, it's worth noting that AFRM currently operates as an unprofitable venture, and its current valuation may be perceived as inflated.
I'm eager to hear your perspective on this matter!
AFFIRM - is this still a good buy?
CNBC has reported recently the surge of AFFIRM shares after better-than-expected results as per the screenshot above.
AFFIRM (a buy now pay later business) has published some exciting highlights.
Let us look at their GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliation in detail:
AFFIRM makes a profit in the most recent quarter by using non-GAAP measurements. Using the whole year results ending 30 June 2023, total revenue is $1.587B and total operating costs are $2.788B, representing an operating loss of $1.2B.
Yet through the lens of non-GAAP, the last quarter was profitable with $14.7M because non-GAAP does not include the costs of depreciation & amortization, stock-based compensation, enterprise warrant, restructuring and other costs. Going forward, I recommend all to focus more on the GAAP figures as that gives a better view of the financials. Creative accounting and business narratives can distract us from having a realistic view of the business.
The need to probe further into the financials is necessary so that we can better appreciate the financial fundamentals of the business. After 1 year, AFFIRM suffered a loss of $1.2B, compared to the loss of $0.866B from the same period a year ago.
Conclusion
Let us perform the due diligence necessary so that we can filter out great companies. It is possible that some of the media focus on certain good parts and omit other “necessary” portions.
No one should care more about our money than ourselves. The due diligence will be the leverage we have. Should the price plunge, this will give us the confidence to hold or buy even more.
Without good fundamentals, I recommend staying away.
NASDAQ:AFRM
AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold AFRM here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AFRM Affirm Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 14.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-8-25,
for a premium of approximately $1.12.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC - BEARISH SCENARIOThe Affirm`s downtrend seems unbreakable. The price has already reached an all-time low, and the next logical support is the psychological level of $ 10.
Worries over the macro's impact on the financial model, especially the deteriorating consumer credit profile combined with lowered fiscal 2023 outlook on gross merchandise volume to a range of $20.5 billion to $21.5 billion are just some of the reasons for the sell-off.
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AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the AFRM Affirm Holdings options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $14.5 strike price Puts with
2022-11-11 expiration date for about
$1.16 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Affirm AFRM current BULLISH thesis level by levelLets NOT get out of control with the expectations and when and where this should go. Lets instead play this level by level by level as we watch the movements and levels of the SPX and Nasdaq. This WILL give us our overall limits and projections we can work with UNTIL we get our OWN narrative to run on our own.
Pay attention to the levels for Support (S) and Resistance (R) as well as you can see the GAPS that need to be filled marked by the Yellow STARS for you to make it EASY ...
Affirm AFRM Just might get its own Holiday Narrative #AFRM I'm Long Affirm and will continue to DCA the lows. I think that even if all other stocks crash and get Zero gains from now until next year. I think it's Highly likely that Wallstreet will create a narrative and pump Affirm. I think that the overall idea of lack of cash and credit this year as well as it being hard for many to afford Xmass shopping and or even food and gas to get by will really create a HUGE rush of clientele for Affirm. They even have options to pay for entire vacations,VRBO, flights etc. with Affirm. I could see all types of people having various reasons and or ways they find themselves linking up with Affirm this year.
I think anywhere under $25-$30k short term is Cheap and in the bigger picture I think anywhere under $60 is cheap. Maybe I'm way off on this one, only time will tell. But i personally see them getting a HUGE upcoming holiday narrative that's further enhanced by the bad economy.
$AFRM #AFRM $Affirm #Affirm
AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC - BULLISH SCENARIOAffirm Holdings Inc reported its Q4 earnings on 25/08.
The results topped the expectations and revenue rose to $364.1 million from $261.8 million, while analysts were looking for $355 million.
Growth of the Active merchants and consumers was reported as well
The next price target is located at the $45 resistance level
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AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC - BULLISH SCENARIOIt seems like the local resistance of $ 32 is not going to stop Affirm Holdings and the breakout is inevitable. The next resistance may be reached before the next earnings report on the 25th of August.
A successful breakout will push the price to the $47-$50 resistance level.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC - BULLISH SCENARIOAffirm Shares Surge on Q3 Beat.
Affirm Holdings Inc shares surged 29% after-hours following the company’s Q3 results, with EPS of -$0.19 coming in better than the consensus estimate of -$0.53.
Revenue grew to $354.8 million, compared to the consensus of $344.03 million
In addition, the company announced an extender partnership with Shopify.
We have 3 major resistance levels ahead
1st resistance is located at $ 50
2nd at $ 68
3rd at $ 84.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.