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Macro Monday 50 - The Ivory Coast~The Cocoa Centre of the WorldMacro Monday 50 The Ivory Coast ~ The Cocoa Centre of the World This week we will look at the investment opportunities presenting in the Ivory Coast which is the world’s largest producer of cocoa. This booming economy is expected to continue grow at a 6.6% GDP growth rate which competes with the likes of India (covered on a previous Macro Monday). Today we will cover the Ivory Coast Stock Index - the BRVM Composite Index, the cocoa futures market and also a little history on the west African region. We will also learn a little about the uniqueness of the cacao tree. All of this information is valuable to anyone considering investing in the cocoa markets, the Ivory Coast or West Africa. If you’re an investor seeking unique commodity exposure or seeking to plant some seeds in a sprouting economy, you’ve come to right place. I will also review cocoa through a commodity lens and why many factors present cocoa as a unique trading opportunity and a commodity worth keeping an eye on. The West Africa’s produce 70% of global Cocoa Currently 70% of the world’s cocoa beans are produced in West Africa by the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon. If you ate chocolate this week, it very likely came from one these countries. The Ivory Coast produced 2.2 million tons of cocoa in 2022 accounting for over 30% of the global supply of cocoa, making it the largest cocoa producer in the world. In the 2023/24 cocoa season this reduced to 1.8 million tons. Also known as Côte d’Ivoire, the Ivory Coast is joined to the east by the world’s 2nd largest cocoa producer Ghana, which produced 1.1 million tons of cocoa in 2022 (approx. 20% of the global supply). In the 2023/24 season this reduced to 820,000 tons. The recent decline of cocoa production from the two largest producers indicates the 2024 season could spawn a supply shock in cocoa, increasing the value of the commodity. Many factors have caused this decline in production some of which we will discuss later in this article. Other notable cocoa producers include Indonesia (667,000 tons), Ecuador (337,000 tons), Brazil, Peru, and the Dominican Republic. Together, all the countries combined with the aforementioned Ivory Coast and Ghana contribute the majority of the world’s cocoa supply. Cocoa is essential to the chocolate industry as are other products derived from cocoa beans. The production and trade of cocoa are vital for the economies of these countries, providing income for millions of small farmers and workers involved in the cocoa supply chain. Agriculture in these regions are driving major financial interest. Banks and telecommunications firms are growing rapidly, and all from producing one of the worlds most desired foods. Top 6 Exports from the Ivory Coast Ivory Coast’s main exports and their values in USD billions based on the most recent data from 2023: 1. Cocoa Beans: $3.33 bln 2. Gold: $2.12 bln 3. Rubber: $2.11 bln 4. Refined Petroleum: $1.88 bln. 5. Cocoa Paste: $1.08 bln. 6. Fruits and Nuts (incl cashews & coconuts): $1.2 billion. The Ivory Coast Economy is in Growth mode The GDP growth for Ivory Coast in 2024 is expected to be robust. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s GDP growth is forecasted at 6.6% for the year. This positive outlook is consistent with Ivory Coast’s trend of strong economic performance in recent years. The growth is driven by a diverse economy with strong sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, contributing to its status as one of the leading economies in the West African region. The French Connection In case you’re wondering in, 1893 Ivory Coast was made a French colony. In 1904, Ivory Coast became part of French West Africa. During World War I and World War II, Ivorian soldiers fought for France. The Ivory Coast is a Francophone country, and in 2024, French is spoken by 10 million people out of 28.9 million (33.61%). Abidjan is the city with the third biggest French speaking population anywhere in the world. It is also the fourth most populous city in Africa, with about 4.7million people living there. In international relations, Françafrique (English pronunciation: Frawn-sah-frique) is France's sphere of influence (or pré carré in French, meaning 'backyard') over former French and (also French-speaking) Belgian colonies in sub-Saharan Africa. At present Côte d'Ivoire is Frances leading trading partner in the CFA franc zone (WAEMU countries) and the third-largest in sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa and Nigeria. France is Côte d'Ivoire's second-largest trading partner after China. As you can see, the Ivory Coast has very strong trading ties in Europe. Demographic Snapshot - Ivory Coast The population is c. 30 million with a median age of 19 years old. 60% of the population are under the age of 25 (as of 2020 figures) presenting a very young work abled demographic. Ivory Coast’s Booming Stock Market in 2023 The Ivory Coast had a booming stock market in 2023 and the country as a whole appears to be presenting great economic strives and monumental investment potential. Lets have a look at the Ivory Coast Stock Index. The Ivory Coast Stock Index - The BRVM Composite The Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) is the regional stock exchange of the member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. I have provided a map on another platform of these countries of which the link in is my profile. BRVM Composite Components The BRVM Composite is made up of 46 stocks with 39 of these companies based in the Ivory Coast and 7 based in neighboring countries. Many of the companies operate through individual subsidiary’s in each of the WAEMU countries. The Ivory Coast index provides an interesting mix of growth stocks in the Banking, cocoa production and manufacturing alongside other fruit and nuts, gold mining, telecommunications and tourism. The country is commodity rich and has the workforce to produce at scale. The BRVM trades in the West African CFA franc, which is usually abbreviated as XOF. This currency is used by the countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), providing a stable and uniform platform for financial and economic activities within the region. The BRVM experienced a remarkable year in 2023, with a notable performance that saw the share price of eight stocks climb into double digit figures. Additionally, the stock market’s total value made a historic leap, surpassing the CFA franc 8 trillion threshold (equivalent to approximately $13 billion USD) for the first time ever in Sept 2023. The BRVM Composite top 5 companies by Market Cap 1.Sonatel, AKA Societe Nationale des Telecom has a market cap of CFA 1.93T ($3.2 billion USD). Accounts for approx. 20% of the entire BRVM Stock Exchange equity market. -A major player in the telecommunications sector in West Africa, providing a range of services including fixed-line telephony, mobile communication, internet, and television. 2. Orange Côte d’Ivoire has a market cap of CFA 1.73T ($2.9 billion USD) is listed on the BRVM Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “ORAC”. Also accounts for approx. 20% of the BRVM. -Orange Côte d’Ivoire is a subsidiary of the French group Orange and is a leader in telephony in Côte d’Ivoire, offering fixed, mobile, and internet services, as well as mobile payment services with Orange Money. 3.Societe Generale de Banques has a market cap of CFA 631 billion ($1 billion USD) -A subsidiary of the French multinational bank Société Générale, it offers a wide range of banking products and services to individuals, corporations, institutions, and professionals in Ivory Coast. 4.Ecobank (ETI) has a market cap of CFA 396 billion ($636 million USD) -Also known as Ecobank Transnational Inc. (ETI), it is a pan-African banking conglomerate with operations in 33 African countries. It serves both wholesale and retail customers and is a leading regional banking group in West Africa and Central Africa. 5.Coris Bank has a market cap of CFA 328 billion ($525 million USD) -This is the second-largest banking group in Burkina Faso, providing retail, corporate, and Islamic banking services. It also offers a variety of banking products and services, including e-banking and foreign exchange. As you can see in terms of USD these companies are only sprouting and have a lot of growth potential. These companies are obviously benefiting from major agricultural and infrastructural growth in this blooming economy. Now onto the chart. The BRVM Composite Chart is presently not available on Trading View however you can view it on Investing.com. When it becomes available here I will share it. ✅The smooth moving average on the chart is the 200 day SMA (or the 40 week moving average) which appears to have acted as float for price and is sloping upwards with diagonal support. ✅We can clearly observe an ascending triangle also which suggests much higher prices are plausible. ⬜️ At present this chart is not available on TradingView (even though it is powered by TradingView on another platform). I have requested it to be added to allow us to structure a trade more systematically. If it is added I will share the chart on TradingView so that we can monitor it more closely and create and interactive chart to track. Now lets take a look at the Cocoa Futures chart. Cocoa Futures Chart (ticker: ICEUS:CC1! ) This is the Subject Chart Above at the heading of the artical. The cocoa futures chart is trending strongly bullish. ✅We have found support off the 21 week SMA (blue line) several times since 2022 and we can expect this to continue with such a bullish trend in place. ☑️In the event price closes below the 21 week we can then start looking for a sizable correction down to $6,545. Outside of this, the chart is looking great. ✅IMO the most likely outcome is for the price to blast on up to an all-time high or consolidate sideways until the end of the Sept 2024, after which we would likely have a DSS Bressert cross and continue to move higher. Consolidation after a 375% + increase in price since Jan 2023 would be fairly standard procedure. This includes the scenario of a fall to $6,545 which I would still consider a consolidation move, however I find this less likely of an outcome. Many factors are driving the price of Cocoa up, we will look at some key factors and concerns in the cocoa market below. The Cacao Tree Requires a Specific Climate to Grow Cacao is cocoa in its raw, less-processed form. Cacao grows from trees called Theobroma cacao. Cacao trees are native to South America, West Africa, and some countries in Asia. Its quite incredible how the plant can only thrive in very specific regions called Equatorial Zones. The 3 main species of Theobroma Cacao prefer an equatorial-humid climate, with nearly year-round constant specific humid temperatures. The areas are often coastal or have coastal drafts, have low elevations and super dense humidity. The Cacoa Tree doesn’t mind the heat as much as Coffee Arabica, but it absolutely needs nearly super-saturated water vapor in the atmosphere to survive. The cacao leaf is not very glossy, so if the air is too dry, it will lose all of its water to the detriment of its fruit. Roughly 35 cacao seeds are generated from each hanging fruit which is then fermented and roasted to create our beloved chocolate taste. This process can take a few days to a number of weeks. The raw form of cacao is much more bitter and can be difficult to eat, albeit I recently discovered it is a great coffee replacement. Interestingly, Both are the seed of a fruit — the coffee "cherry" and the cacao pod that contains 35seeds or beans. While much of chocolate's flavor is developed during a lengthy fermentation process, for coffee, a short fermentation has less impact on flavor and is more a means of separating the seed from the fruit. Both Coffee and Cocoa offer natural stimulants; caffeine for coffee and theobromine for Cacao. The main Cacao crop growing season is from Oct - Mar (yielding c.80% of annual produce) and the secondary season is May to Aug which yields c. 20%. At present a tree virus is causing significant issues reducing crops by up to 50%, we will discuss this below. Cocoa Virus Killing up to 50% of Cocoa trees Unfortunately, a rapidly spreading virus threatens the health of the cacao tree and the dried seeds from which chocolate is made, jeopardizing the global supply of the world's most popular treat. As noted above, about 50% of the world's chocolate originates from cacao trees in the West Africa countries of Ivory Coast and Ghana. The damaging virus is attacking cacao trees in Ghana, resulting in harvest losses of between 15 - 50%. Spread by small insects called mealybugs that eat the leaves, buds and flowers of trees, the cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) is among the most damaging threats to the root ingredient of chocolate. "This virus is a real threat to the global supply of chocolate" Benito Chen-Charpentier (professor of mathematics at The University of Texas at Arlington and an author of "Cacao sustainability) Ghana has lost more than 254 million cacao trees in recent years, and the best measures to address the virus are an expensive vaccine (heightening cost) that renders a smaller plant (reducing yield). Farmers are attempting to separate the plants by greater distances however, this results in a similar issue with lessor plants and reduced supply/returns. In summary the virus could cause a major global cocoa shortage causing a major supply shock to the cocoa industry, even the news of this event could cause the value of cocoa to rise. Combine this with the secondary season ending in Aug 2024 poorly, and we are setting up for a cocoa shortage coming into the cocoa demand Christmas season. Ivory Coast and Senegal Clear Leaders in West Africa Finally, I wanted to recognize that the Ivory Coast is not on their own and many of the countries around them are also thriving. The Ivory Coast and Senegal both play significant roles in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The Ivory Coast is often considered the powerhouse of the union, contributing a substantial portion of the region’s GDP. It is the driving economy within WAEMU, with a notable share of the nominal GDP of the zone. On the other hand, Senegal is recognized as the second-largest economy in the WAEMU area and has been making strides in economic growth and development through initiatives like the Emerging Senegal Plan (PSE). While Dakar, Senegal, hosts the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), which is crucial for the financial stability and monetary policy of the WAEMU, the Ivory Coast’s economic weight within the union is also significant. Therefore, both countries can be seen as key financial centers in their own right within the WAEMU context, with the Ivory Coast leading in economic size and Senegal in its strategic role hosting the BCEAO. The Hunt for West African Brokerages I am in the process of hunting for safe and reliable brokers in the Ivory Coast and West Africa’s region. I have found some but I could not recommend them until I do some testing and get some opinions. If anyone has any information on this, I would be very happy to have it and share it with the community here. In any event, I will look for easier indexes also that include exposure to the these countries and to Cocoa. Interactive Charts on TradingView All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Ireland's stock market has performed. I hope its helpful. I wrote this and consumed a whole bar of 85% Lindt Chocolate….hard to believe the journey it took to reach here. Thanks again for coming along, PUKA
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by PukaCharts
1
A Promising Investment in Africa's E-commerceNYSE:JMIA is retesting the $5 support level which is a major point of interest. Bouncing off this level is a good sign for strong buyer interest and a sign of further uptrend. Bullish Case Growing e-commerce market in Africa: Africa has a rapidly growing middle class and a young, tech-savvy population. This presents a significant opportunity for e-commerce companies like Jumia to tap into the expanding market and capture a substantial share of the growing online retail sector. First-mover advantage: Jumia is often referred to as the "Amazon of Africa" due to its dominant position in the African e-commerce market. As the first major player in the region, Jumia has built a strong brand and established a network of customers, sellers, and logistics partners, giving it a competitive advantage over potential new entrants.
NYSE:JMIALong
by EgideSimba
Dollar gain strength again SA randUSDZAR gained momentum in pushing to the upside since South africa had a negative impact on the economy due to the poper supply issue. We our first price target from last week was that price would hit 17.50 but now that it has made multiple breakout on certain levels we looking forward for the price to head around 17.70. We see a very clear price has reached the RS ZONE on 1H TM and 4H TM. We take longs just after few countable minutes from market open. Most preferable time will be 01h15 am +2 GTM Johannesburg time zone.
Long
by ipot-officialtrader
Dollar / South African Rand (USDZAR) High Timeframe outline HTF (High Time Frame) outlook for the South African Rand. Lets see how it plays out over the coming months. I am currrently positioned long and per the box, break down from here and you target the next range below for some action. HTF charts take long to play out. Wonder what the news will be .... USD at monthly resistance, so probably heading to the lower box. These monthlys all tested, and weekly struggling to hold. So lower box looking prbable for now. However, this is the range to long, albiet a bit sketchy. USD looking strong against CHINA YEN , this could play a significant role, as South Africa (Along with rest of Africa) is aligned (owned) by China.
by Willco95
A Possible 35% Increase by AfriprudHi, My Name is Victor. This is the first time I decided to go public with my strategies. My strategies are not 100% efficient but they are sure to give you some returns for your investment. This strategy is based on volume and price and movement. The major indicators used to arrive at this idea are purely technical though am aware that Africa Prudential PLC. (Afriprud) has a strong fundamental. The key indicators used are CCi, RSI and MA 50, 100, 150. The volume shows that at 6naira per share, Afriprud has a high volume of demand and this might also serve as our resistance level. for a while Afriprud has been on an uptrend and is currently taking a pull back inorder to continue this trend. Our CCI indicates that price has gone over bought and might likely reverse. The RSI indicates a weak trend hence a reversal is bound to occur. Entry - 6naira exit - 8.14 stop loss - 5.5 Gain - 35% Risk/reward ratio; 4.24
NSENG:AFRIPRUDLong
by victoronuoha35
1
Real Money Moves Markets Good morning, nothing really technical here today folks just a reminder that one Geopolitical Event In Ukraine caused the market to move sharply to the upside. The power of real money cannot be denied during times of Bank Freezes or even Invasions & Occupations. Bitcoin passed the test once again, when millions of people donated BTC to fund Ukraine's Military. Over the last few weeks a colleague approached me in different ways sneakily trying to ask for crypto advice. I have to be honest, to people who aren't in the market & are clueless about the technology Bitcoin seems like some secret Cabal. Every few years people ask me randomly what coin they should buy. After six years the answer is always the same. I suggest starting with Bitcoin. If anyone is managing a portfolio BTC is the best way to start, it's the best investment, the best money, the most liquid cash, the most secure, it goes on & on. But for some strange reason, they think I'm lying or keeping secrets, or worse yet, I'm supposed to teach them portfolio management FOR FREE. This colleague, said his organization had access to large sums of cash sitting in a bank acct. A regular acct not a business acct. He asked what was the best thing to do? I suggested buying BTC & collateralizing it back into dollars 50% at 1% interest. The Org would have had tens of thousands of dollars to advertise, to do community events or for projects within the facility...The following week the conversation shifted to Akoin being some kind of solution for people in Senegal & potentially for black Americans here in the US. I was floored. After six years of teaching BTC, I had to start all over with the basics. My new approach is not to bash sh!tcoins but to allow people to fail, I do research on the projects then get back to "investors" with the good the bad & the ugly about their latest lotto dreams. After a few short conversations about the idealism behind Akoin or rather the appeal my colleague told me he hoped I was wrong or that he didn't want what I'd said to be true. I have no other choice but to believe he bought Akoin when BTC was dipping. The weight of the words "I don't want to believe that & I hope that's not true" were devastating. And this is the reason portfolio management conversations cost money. What do you think? Did you buy the BTC dip? How do you handle no coiners? Most diplomatic way to handle sh!tcoiners? Disclaimer: In no way should my remarks or the context of coin discussion surrounding Geopolitics, Nation or Country of Origin to be considered disparaging. In fact if you're interested please see the latest developments regarding Senegal's adoption of Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoQue
Stellar up The mission of the Stellar Development Foundation is to create fair and balanced access to the global financial system. The new launch will support the network’s mission by connecting Stellar-based businesses to develop an efficient and cost-effective Pan African payments system. Also, TEMPO CEO Suren Ayriyan expressed his excitement about the partnership with Flutterwave to provide services to Africa. He emphasized that its customers across Europe will now be able to easily send funds to Africa. Consumers can send money to their loved ones or conduct businesses in a faster and cheaper manner. Speaking further, Ayriyan noted that the money transfer company hopes to continuously collaborate with Stellar. According to the CEO, TEMPO hopes to provide cheap, secure, and swift global money transfers to its new and existing customers.
BINANCE:XLMUSDLong
by Becky69700
Markets news n°36> George Soros says Xi Jinping is ruining the economy and predicts investors in China are in for a rude awakening *********************** The billionaire said: "Xi Jinping’s crackdown on private enterprise has been a significant drag on the economy. International investors are in for a rude awakening.". He also said "I consider Xi Jinping the most dangerous enemy of open societies in the world.". Of course the chinese answered, and this is more pointless drama than anything, they called him a "global economic terrorist". I think the Malaysian PM had words a big more crude, a jew conspiracy was mentionned, I bet the chinese would love to make racist comments. When this country falls apart and they start getting nervous the conspiracies and antisemitism and blaming "the bankers and speculators" are sure to come back. Blackrock, which is basically a mindless company that never had an exceptional performance but manages a whole lot of money, got on the hype train of "China next superpower" bla bla bla, totally missing the reasons as to why they grew so much. The reasons are pretty obvious: demographics - which are really getting bad now - and they came from very low! Their historical GDP share has been around 20-35% and a few decades ago it was down to 1%! So of course when their society sort of goes "back to normal" the grow will be gigantic, to go to their historical average it would take a 30X. Going up strong and fast doesn't mean they'll continue past their "normal" share of world GDP. Soros called Blackrock decision to invest in the chinese hype a "tragic mistake", and blackrock responded by whining and saying something along the lines of "stop spreading FUD". > Another day trading "magic system just be disciplined" vendor goes to jail, another crypto ponzi crook gets charged *********************** Another day, another day trader bites the dust. Just like in the mid 80s and late 90s "day traders" are back, giving us life lessons. I'd say it started since last year with the whole Dave Portnoy thing. They're all coming out of the woodwork letting us know how they're all "part of the 1%" and "you just need to be disciplined" or some crap. Well, crooks are taking advantage of it again, and this summer a crook called Leonard J. Cipolla got a 10 years jail sentence handed to him for selling a "secret trading system" that would "virtually guaranteed a gain of 10-30% per month". He used his winning account statements for a period of 2 years to draw suckers in "here is the proof". A few months or years ago I remember proving that a typical day trading macd strategy was equivalent - but inferior - to taking a single position on the market for a few months, it "works" when it's trending, but not too strong (or you never get signals). I think they have no clue their strategies are something like taking a long position on volatility, or even a long on the market period. People don't understand this are just ignorant. Then they go "well market conditions change". It's just so stupid. The list of people that were excited and absolutely persuaded they'd make millions and I'm waiting to get back to me or get back to a forum is too long for me to remember. The list of people that did get back to me is very easy: it's empty. How do these guys become so sure that's it they are the wonderboy they'll become a multi-millionaire? There is a guy I managed to get my hands on, in the league of legends client, he said something like "Oh well I am taking a break". These guys swear on their grandmothers "I will let you know how it went", and then when they fail as expected they are so ashamed and disappointed, even depressed, you don't hear a word. I had coworkers at a bank get all euphoric about crypto and picturing themselves in fast cars, talking about it ALL THE TIME, every single day. A guy that kept bothering me each time BTC was going down was mysteriously away for several months (mental breakdown) when it dropped below 6000. When he came back he NEVER mentionned crypto. Not once. Which brings me to the other crook, and this is a pleasure, nearly as great as seeing day traders break their teeth: Bitconnect founder has been charged with fraud a few days ago. They got him boys. They always do. I'm sure they'll even find the "crypto queen" that disappeared. I feel we will soon (next 2 years I guess) hear plenty of "Lehman" stories, and rogue day traders. Remember the day/swing trading guy that was deported to Ghana after losing 2 billions? He also lost all of his personal money with 2 CFD brokers gambling it all away. "How do the pros make money". Simple, they don't. I hope we get plenty of rogue gambler blow up stories. The 10 years jail day trader official document, these stories are exquisite, I can never get enough: www.justice.gov > France is getting violent. Far right groups assault far left anti-pass groups with sticks, and everyone assaults police *********************** And here is the violence. Revolution vibes. The government will keep pushing them against a wall, as they said "make their lives as miserable as possible" (genius), give them "no choice", make sure they have nothing to lose. It's so stupid... Unbelievable. Wow what could go wrong? So now the government is surprised at the violence, and even the die hard "system" journalists are jumping off the ship. Even Patrick Cohen which is the worlds leading shill for globalism and "covidism" has criticized our health minister and defended our "pro Chloroquine" doctors. The health minister made big round eyes he looked astonished. So did I, this nerd IS the world biggest shill for the "system". People hate him already so I don't know what these journalists are doing, they think people will forget? They'll sink with the ship, too late to change camps. France has been protesting for months now, against the covid pass, and the media won't cover this but the internet will, and the images don't lie: far right & far left groups are fighting each other, and both sides are now getting violent with police - which might have started it. Ah of course, the media won't cover this; BUT Macron the president and the government funded media will cover "our president wants to curb police violence after allegations", ah yes of course it just happened to be right now, just after violence in the streets, must be a coincidence. They tried to crush the angry people in the street, and it made them even angrier. So now they're trying something else. Good luck. > CNBC: "Russia is building its military influence in Africa, challenging U.S. and French dominance." As I expected... *********************** Not so long ago I mentionned the Russians and Centrafrique roasting France. And I said this was just the start. Well, the trend continues: Nigeria and Mali (from which France just left) have signed with Russia. Also Ethiopia according to CNBC. Will Russia allow the Tuaregs to have some sort of freedom or just support the southerners like France did? Maybe Gaddafi son will be Libya next leader, the media forgot to mention this but the tribes got together and said he was the only one they'd allow to represent them all. If Russia does not impose their own vision, it's totally possible Libya this time around builds a united Africa - United but of course with a Tribal system and ethnostates that respects everyone culture and independance. Not what the west wanted. The west: all mixed together, but divided not united. Need our migrants. A quick reminder: Iraq has been civilized with a tribal system for 10,000 years. The "advanced progressive" west got out of the forest about 2000 years ago. The forest dwellers spent so much time in the forest they have adapted to the poor light with blue eyes. Clearly the "primitive tribal system" worked for thousands of years, produced big progress, and wonders and all sorts of pyramids. I predict the ethnic cleansings and so on will be dramatically reduced, as long as Russia respects African traditions. Goodbye refugee crisis. Even with all the harm the western NGOS, armies, clean energy dictats, and propaganda, have done, Africa has been developing. Imagine trippling the number of power plants, but your population quadrupled. It will look as if you are stagnating or declining. And why do they keep making kids? Western democracy. The ethny with the most people will get the most vote and therefore will rule over the other ethnicities. We don't need Bill Gates vaccines to slow the multiplication, what an ignorant fool, we need to stop the west from imposing their vision of the world on others. Some may explain the high fertility with "Oh well they have strong kin/tribe values" which is sort of rephrasing what I said. > New Zealand might start a new leg down till 2023 if the delusional GDP consensus is not reached tomorrow night *********************** Deluded economists and bankers might be wrong again, and New Zealand GDP numbers might be way lower than what they expect, then they'll get their little ties and go to tv or whatever and make up some explanexcuse. And if/when the GDP goes boom the price of NZD might also go boom. If it crashes this week, this may be it. I don't think the USD is just going to go to zero overnight. Tommorow we are also getting Canada & UK CPI numbers, some China numbers. Then next week the big FED meeting. Maybe this week, or next week, is what gets this new year started. The ECB and FED continue their far-west duel, no one wanting to do anything first. The status quo "easy monetary policies" continue. On the NZ side: "Electronic retail card spending for August came in at -19.8% on a month-over-month basis, missing the 1.7% (delusional) consensus forecast. Visitor arrivals for July fell to 767.8% from 1365.2% the prior month.". That's so bad. Yeah it missed it alright. Slightly. The price went up in a straight line for 2 weeks, 10/11 candles are green. So possibly the only thing holding the price up are day & swing gamblers that got excited or something. And once it falls, it could be violent. > Aging germans can't stand getting beat by tech stocks and a poor performance indice: DAX 40 launches Monday 20 *********************** Just going to quote here: "On Monday September 20th, STOXX a unit of Deutsche Borse, the German holding company of stock exchanges will implement what Reuters referred to as the biggest overhaul of the DAX index since it was created 33 years ago. The biggest changes include: Growing from 30 companies to 40 companies Strict new index listing criteria New de-listing rules (to enable faster action in instances like the Wirecard scandal)" They are adding Airbus? Wasn't that a french company? 4 of the 10 new companies are health/chemical/genetic companies. Biotech basically. Apart from that there isn't anything special worth noting in my opinion. Seems diversified enough, which is what institutional investors wanted. After the Wirecard fraud hit them they got upset and wanted more diversification/companies so a single one wouldn't hurt so much. This would bring Germany to the number of France (CAC 40) and Italy (FTSE MIB, Italy main indice went from 30 to 40 in 2004), and still far behind the UK with their 100 companies. Even Spain had more companies in their indice than Germany (I'm not sure but banks might be a bit overweighted there), and the Dutch with less than 25% of Germany population have 25. Should have created a DAX-50 or even DAX-100. Germany is way smaller than the US so no DAX-500, but DAX-50 or 100 makes sense. Maybe the "Eurostoxx" should give back the companies they stole too. And indices per sector would be nice too. Dear Santa Claus... Ye man if I wanted to buy 2 dozen companies I'd do just that not buy an indice. Going from 30 to 40 isn't much of an improvement but I think they didn't want to scare anyone, especially old people holding it. The DAX-40 companies have a mkt cap going from $15 bn to $175 bn. The ultra overvalued S&P 500 companies start at $4 bn. If the less overvalued German started at $3.3 bn it would be the DAX-100. If it started at $4 bn it would be the DAX-90. Going by price to earnings it could easilly be the DAX-100. Just mindlessly buying everything rather than taking intelligent decisions stock by stock is bad I guess but if you're going to make an indice anyway, give us an indice of large cap companies, blue chips. Dax-100. CAC-80. The french indice is so troll, the "fashion" companies are so huge compared to the rest (wanted to buy the dip for a few weeks by the way). So you got the top 4 that are big fashion companies with the 2 biggest ones (L'Oréal par ce que je le vaux bien, LVMH) with a market cap of $262 and $385, LVMH has a weight of more than 10% that has to be some record, and the smallest ones are playing in another league around $15B. The top 5 make up 37% of the weight. Can't find the DAX weights, I guess it's a secret, I think it's more balanced than other ones. In the S&P 500 the top 9 stocks are all definitely not overvalued tech stocks + BRK, and their weight is more than 25%, Apple being the biggest with 6%. The Dow Jones valuations are complete troll it goes by price and the biggest weight is just under 8%. Some companies worth trillions, and some worth 3 bn. Well I guess it represents well the socialist monopoly system where 95% of the population are wageslaves. Maybe this brings some hype back to the German stock market. The big winner other than the US ponzi has been France. I rather want to buy these beastmode companies but I don't know where to buy for sure, maybe when it starts trending again, or a bit lower, maybe an ABC:
by MrRenev
1
$JMIA Time to WatchJumia is an interesting stock and was a pennystock until they got new management while back. It has recovered, but now it's markcap shows it returning back into a pennystock. At current levels I see an opportunity that you may want to build a position. News -Missed on ER, but they have 600mil in cash TA -Since I been watching, Jumia has about a 7-8% downside to $17.66 which was resistance back in Aug-Nov 2020. Next point of interest is 28.07 bringing a 45% unside move. -RSI is oversold leans bullish -MACD is still bearish and leans more bearish -Below the EMAs, which is bearish but could have an upside of 7% to try and turn bullish again. -High vpvr levels at $22 area Final Thoughts Overall it's a stock I would buy on speculation, but I'm in ASTR atm so I'll be watching it closely while I look for another trade after I make my gains in ASTR. Jumia has major investors supporting it and its a bet on the African Economy, so maybe do some research on Africa of Covid19 and see how much is being impacted. For myself I don't hear anything about Africa on this matter, so its one piece of news I'm unknown on. Overall I told my friend before it crashed it would hit $50, but now with its MC below $2bil I think its a major steal with a massive upside protentional by years end and maybe the short term.
NYSE:JMIALong
by nathanielx9
DYAI Covid-19 Vaccine for the African ContinentDyadic International signed a COVID-19 vaccine technology transfer and licensing agreement with the Rubic Consortium. The Rubic Consortium is made up of promoters of the project representing public health, medical, academia, vaccine technology, technology transfer and economics sectors. Arrangement includes C1 COVID-19 vaccine technology transfer and licensing agreement. Provides potential funding pathway for a C1 manufactured COVID-19 vaccine to progress through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. Establishes co-development basis for researching, developing and manufacturing multiple other C1 produced vaccines in addition to DYAI-100. Intends to reduce African dependence on foreign vaccine suppliers. Combined with previous C1 COVID-19 vaccine collaborations in India and South Korea (including Southeast Asia), this agreement further supports the potential for C1 produced COVID-19 immunization coverage to more than 40% of the world’s population. (rubicconsortium.co.za) Now what is the potential for DYAI??? The 52 Week Range is 3.1500 - 9.1900 Now the price is 3.89usd, so close to the lower end. The market cap is only 107Mil The biggest owner, 4.744%, is BlackRock Inc. which reported on 5/7/2021 1,307,205 shares on DYAI for a market value of $7.18Mil. if we make an average, Blackrock bought DYAI at 5.5usd per share. and i don`t think it will sell for less, especially with new COVID-19 vaccine coming. The second important owner is Vanguard Group Inc., which has 709,698 shares at a market value of $4.44Mil. they bought DYAI at 6.25usd and didn`t panic sell when the stock went to 2.5usd! My short term price target is 6.5usd, but on the long run, depending on the efficacy of the vaccine, this company can worth Billions! Just remember MRNA before it made 25X!
NASDAQ:DYAILong
by TopgOptions
1